Philosophy of D-II Scheduling

[SuperHornet]

I think we can all agree that the scheduling of D-II schools should either be banned or at the very least limited to one. Beyond that, though, do you guys have a philosophy behind which particular D-II you would choose? Close in geography to minimize the travel cost payout? A complete wuss D-II? A power D-II to give your squad something of a challenge before finally putting them away?

This should be an interesting debate. Scheduling a D-II is a risk no matter how you slice it. A bad showing in a win or even a loss would be HORRIBLE (even with a FBS win; see what happened to Bozo a few years back). A win won't look good (even if it's a shellacking) because it's "expected." But scheduling a reasonably close D-II could foster good collegial feeling in the area. That's one bennie I can think of, but it would likely be easier for eastern schools to pull off, as those of us out west have fewer D-II options. It could ALSO serve as a buffer to recover after a tough FBS game. Those back east could probably more easily serve that function by scheduling a lower-tier FCS game due to the higher concentration of potential FCS candidates.

My personal feelings? Don't do it at all, but if you absolutely HAVE to, get someone close to serve as Homecoming. For Sac, that would probably be Azusa Pacific and Humboldt State, BOTH rather large risks, as they had good squads last year, and Humboldt had probably the biggest turnaround in college football, going from losing every game in 2013 to losing only two last year. Anyone else, even SOU, for me, gets too much into the travel pay that we'd probably have to subsidize.

[JohnStOnge]

I think that each team should be looked at in terms of how good it appears to be without worrying about the Division. Ask K.C. Keeler if he thinks his team played a "sub par" opponent last year when it got completely manhandled by eventual D-II champion Colorado State Pueblo.

If a FCS team schedules a Northwest Missouri State, Central Washington, North Alabama, etc., chances are they're going to have an opponent that is better than most FCS teams. They're not scheduling a cupcake and they're not scheduling an automatic win.

And when playoff time comes, teams are being seeded, and teams are being considered at large bid the playoff committee ought not to even look at the division classification of opponents. It should be looking at some kind of objective power rating system that rates teams.

[bonarae]

It depends on the location of the school, but still, it is really a risk not worth taking for.

The Ivies haven't played any D-II teams in a very long time. But they are much better than the PFL teams we currently have on our schedule.

[JohnStOnge]

It depends on the location of the school, but still, it is really a risk not worth taking for.

Yeah the risk part is the bad part. I really don't know exactly how the committee looks at D-II games now. I have the impression that they don't automatically dismiss D-II wins as though the games didn't happen anymore but I still doubt that they objectively try to look at how good the team is without looking at the Division. So a FCS in my area of the country still might have gotten more credit for beating a Prairie View than it would for beating Angelo State after last year's regular season even though anybody who took time to analyze the two teams would probably would've made Angelo State a solid favorite to beat Prairie View at the time. Just as an example, assuming the two teams were playing on Prairie View's home field, the Massey system would've made Angelo State a 13 point favorite. No system is perfect but 13 points is a pretty big spread so you can expect that just about anything you did would end up making Angelo State favorite.

[Catattack]

This should be an interesting debate. Scheduling a D-II is a risk no matter how you slice it. A bad showing in a win or even a loss would be HORRIBLE (even with a FBS win; see what happened to Bozo a few years back).

I'll assume you are talking about Chadron in 2006(because you like to bring that up alot)? What was so horrible that happened because of that loss? Other than embarrassment?

[JALMOND]

I think we can all agree that the scheduling of D-II schools should either be banned or at the very least limited to one. Beyond that, though, do you guys have a philosophy behind which particular D-II you would choose? Close in geography to minimize the travel cost payout? A complete wuss D-II? A power D-II to give your squad something of a challenge before finally putting them away?

This should be an interesting debate. Scheduling a D-II is a risk no matter how you slice it. A bad showing in a win or even a loss would be HORRIBLE (even with a FBS win; see what happened to Bozo a few years back). A win won't look good (even if it's a shellacking) because it's "expected." But scheduling a reasonably close D-II could foster good collegial feeling in the area. That's one bennie I can think of, but it would likely be easier for eastern schools to pull off, as those of us out west have fewer D-II options. It could ALSO serve as a buffer to recover after a tough FBS game. Those back east could probably more easily serve that function by scheduling a lower-tier FCS game due to the higher concentration of potential FCS candidates.

My personal feelings? Don't do it at all, but if you absolutely HAVE to, get someone close to serve as Homecoming. For Sac, that would probably be Azusa Pacific and Humboldt State, BOTH rather large risks, as they had good squads last year, and Humboldt had probably the biggest turnaround in college football, going from losing every game in 2013 to losing only two last year. Anyone else, even SOU, for me, gets too much into the travel pay that we'd probably have to subsidize.

My own opinion is we should not play anyone lower than FCS. But we would look like hypocrites if we holler at Oregon and Oregon State to play us, then thumb our noses at Western Oregon.

[SuperHornet]

I think we can all agree that the scheduling of D-II schools should either be banned or at the very least limited to one. Beyond that, though, do you guys have a philosophy behind which particular D-II you would choose? Close in geography to minimize the travel cost payout? A complete wuss D-II? A power D-II to give your squad something of a challenge before finally putting them away?

This should be an interesting debate. Scheduling a D-II is a risk no matter how you slice it. A bad showing in a win or even a loss would be HORRIBLE (even with a FBS win; see what happened to Bozo a few years back). A win won't look good (even if it's a shellacking) because it's "expected." But scheduling a reasonably close D-II could foster good collegial feeling in the area. That's one bennie I can think of, but it would likely be easier for eastern schools to pull off, as those of us out west have fewer D-II options. It could ALSO serve as a buffer to recover after a tough FBS game. Those back east could probably more easily serve that function by scheduling a lower-tier FCS game due to the higher concentration of potential FCS candidates.

My personal feelings? Don't do it at all, but if you absolutely HAVE to, get someone close to serve as Homecoming. For Sac, that would probably be Azusa Pacific and Humboldt State, BOTH rather large risks, as they had good squads last year, and Humboldt had probably the biggest turnaround in college football, going from losing every game in 2013 to losing only two last year. Anyone else, even SOU, for me, gets too much into the travel pay that we'd probably have to subsidize.

My own opinion is we should not play anyone lower than FCS. But we would look like hypocrites if we holler at Oregon and Oregon State to play us, then thumb our noses at Western Oregon.

Oregon vs. Portland State is still D-I vs. D-I....

[JohnStOnge]

Oregon vs. Portland State is still D-I vs. D-I....

Yes but I know from having looked into it a number of times in the past that top D-IIs have done better against I-AA/FCS teams than top I-AA/FCS teams have done against I-A/FBS teams. In terms of real on the field caliber there is more "separation" between FBS and FCS than there is between FCS and D-II. I don't have the computer with all my databases on it this week but just going from memory I can tell you that, historically, teams that went on to make the D-II playoffs have a winning record against I-AA/FCS teams. Teams that have gone on to make the I-AA/FCS playoffs have a losing record against I-A/FBS teams and it's not close. Moreover, even if you look at just what we used to call non BCS I-A/FBS teams I-AA/FCS teams have a losing record against them.

[SuperHornet]

That's skewed, and you know it, JSO. It's skewed by too many FCS programs having to schedule bodybag games against P5 schools vice G5 schools. Sure, there are the exceptions (Sac over Oregon State, App over Michigan, etc.). And that's pretty much all the opportunity we have out here. But if you restrict your data set to FCS vs. G5, I'm certain that FCS schools (particularly the top FCS programs) do MUCH better. If you're telling me that NDSU vs. Ball State is an auto-loss, you're full of it....

[JohnStOnge]

That's skewed, and you know it, JSO. It's skewed by too many FCS programs having to schedule bodybag games against P5 schools vice G5 schools. Sure, there are the exceptions (Sac over Oregon State, App over Michigan, etc.). And that's pretty much all the opportunity we have out here. But if you restrict your data set to FCS vs. G5, I'm certain that FCS schools (particularly the top FCS programs) do MUCH better. If you're telling me that NDSU vs. Ball State is an auto-loss, you're full of it....

I'm not talking about just I-AA/FCS vs. any subset. When I was keeping up with it every year it was during the BCS era so I looked at I-A/FBS vs. I-AA/FCS playoff teams, BCS league schools vs. I-AA/FCS playoff teams, and non-BCS league schools vs. I-AA/FCS playoff teams. I-AA/FCS playoff teams had losing records against all three of those breakdowns. The time frame was the BCS era. I-AA/FCS playoff teams won something like 15 to 20 percent of their games against BCS league teams and something like 30 percent of their games against non BCS league teams.

Meanwhile just going from memory D-II playoff teams won something like 57% of their games against I-AA/FCS competition. We have now had two instances in which I-AA/FCS semifinalists not only lost but got pistol whipped by Division II playoff teams. One was when Valdosta State blew out Florida Atlantic in 2003 and the other was when Colorado State Pueblo blew out Sam Houston State this past season. You're just not going to find stuff like that happening with I-AA/FCS vs. I-A/FBS. I'm talking about where you see a I-AA/FCS really dominating a top 5 or 10 I-A/FBS. The pinnacle was App State beating Michigan but that Michigan team did not finish in the top 25 in terms of BCS rankings and at 18 in the AP poll. It was a borderline top 25 team when all was said and done. Also it was not a blowout. Michigan had a chance to win the game on the last play but the field goal was blocked.

[JohnStOnge]

I might be a little off because I just quickly scored through the final 2014/2015 Massey Ratings but I counted three D-II teams that were within the range of power ratings for the top 25 FCS teams. The top D-II team, Colorado State Pueblo, was rated behind eight FCS teams. And I don't see how anybody can say that's unrealistic given the way they pounded Sam Houston State. As discussed in previous threads the 47-21 final score does not reflect the level of domination. Sam Houston State had NEGATIVE offensive yards at halftime when the score was 27-0. The score was 47-7 with 12 minutes left in the game. Sam Houston State scored two TDs in the final five and a half minutes to create the illusion that there the game was at least SOMEWHAT competitive but in reality it was not a competitive game. If you want some comparison there is no question that Colorado State Pueblo handled Sam Houston State a WHOLE lot more easily than Eastern Washington did in the season opener.

Meanwhile there were NO FCS teams in the range of rankings of the top 25 FBS teams. Highest rated FCS team was North Dakota State at 35, rated behind 34 FBS teams.

You could quibble with the Massey ratings but any system you can find that rates teams from all different levels is going to give you the same picture. During the typical season there are always going to be Division II teams that are equivalent in caliber to top 25 FCS teams while it is extremely rare to have FCS teams that are equivalent in caliber to top 25 FBS teams. Maybe Marshall in 1996 and maybe the 2013/2014 North Dakota State team but that's going to be about it. And in those years it was ONE I-AA/FCS team that was arguably equivalent to a top 25 caliber I-A/FBS team. There are multiple D-II teams every year that are arguably equivalent to top 25 caliber FCS teams.

[SDHornet]

Meh, it’s the economics/logistics of FCS. I would rather see home and homes with other FCS programs, but I understand scheduling D2/NAIA to fill out a home slate is necessary. Also depends on the situation of the program. I totally understand scheduling down if a program is in rebuild mode.

As far as the strength of that D2 opponent…meh. If FCS programs don’t want to get embarrassed with a D2 loss then do your homework and know who you are scheduling. An embarrassing loss at home to a D2 opponent is inexcusable.

[89Hen]

Oregon vs. Portland State is still D-I vs. D-I....

In name only. Last time PSU played Oregon.... 69-0.

[dbackjon]

Oregon vs. Portland State is still D-I vs. D-I....

In name only. Last time PSU played Oregon.... 69-0.

Just like Pitt-Delaware

[89Hen]

In name only. Last time PSU played Oregon.... 69-0.

Just like Pitt-Delaware

Yup. Delaware was MUCH closer to a D2 last year.

[YoUDeeMan]

Just like Pitt-Delaware

Yup. Delaware was MUCH closer to a D2 last year.

We had an experienced QB, and a whole host of weapons...and our staff decided to quit before the season started.

Brock has shown nothing against FBS opponents. He says he wants to play them, and then he shows up with no game plan and no fight. That goes right along with his philosophy of wanting to close practices and to not show anything to future opponents.

Why let one of our FCS opponents get anything on film when the game doesn't matter? We just walk in, collect a paycheck, and he'll tell the kids that they got to play against the big boys (with no game plan).

We'll get curb stomped against UNC this year.

[SuperHornet]

As far as the strength of that D2 opponent…meh. If FCS programs don’t want to get embarrassed with a D2 loss then do your homework and know who you are scheduling. An embarrassing loss at home to a D2 opponent is inexcusable.

In other words, schedule New Mexico Highlands or Texas A&I (on the downhill for quite a while after decades of D-II prosperity) as opposed to Colorado School of Mines, Pueblo State, and Northwest Missouri State, right?

Or, do you go the opposite route in the hopes of getting a better RPI game than one would ordinarily get from a lower-tier FCS like Davidson or Nicholls State? There's an even bigger risk in going with a D-III school, because while in most cases, it SHOULD be an easy win, it won't be so easy if the chosen opponent is Mount Union or Wisconsin-Whitewater. And even picking up an NAIA game could be hazardous if the opponent is of the caliber of Carroll.

But even that brings up the question of philosophy. Go for the cupcake win (i.e. the traditional homecoming game) or go for the better lower-division team in the hopes of a better RPI stake, understanding the risk of a loss or a bad showing. It's an interesting debate....

[SDHornet]

I was thinking more along the lines of not scheduling a passing leader in D2 (SOU) while knowing your secondary is total dog shit…you know, use some common sense.

I don’t follow D2 so I wouldn’t know the difference, which plays into the point of why bother risking a loss by playing a top notch D2 opponent. None of those D2 opponents will draw any interest at the gate so the point is moot on bringing in a "name" D2 opponent.

[Wedgebuster]

Yeah a superior Chadron State team rode the bus to Bozeman and stomped a mudhole in MSU, but the Bobcats made the playoffs anyway that year, and I believe they even won a game.

SHSU got absolutely blasted at home last year by CSU-Pueblo (Who??) and still went deep in the playoffs..

So, Chadron State went to the quarter finals in 2006, and CSU- Pueblo won the D-2 NC last year, what does that tell us?

[SDHornet]

Yeah a superior Chadron State team rode the bus to Bozeman and stomped a mudhole in MSU, but the Bobcats made the playoffs anyway that year, and I believe they even won a game.

SHSU got absolutely blasted at home last year by CSU-Pueblo (Who??) and still went deep in the playoffs..

So, Chadron State went to the quarter finals in 2006, and CSU- Pueblo won the D-2 NC last year, what does that tell us?

That it’s still embarrassing to lose to a D2 no matter how well they do at their level.

[Wedgebuster]

Yeah a superior Chadron State team rode the bus to Bozeman and stomped a mudhole in MSU, but the Bobcats made the playoffs anyway that year, and I believe they even won a game.

SHSU got absolutely blasted at home last year by CSU-Pueblo (Who??) and still went deep in the playoffs..

So, Chadron State went to the quarter finals in 2006, and CSU- Pueblo won the D-2 NC last year, what does that tell us?

That it’s still embarrassing to lose to a D2 no matter how well they do at their level.

Tells me they are not as inferior to FCS as many believe.

[BisonCardinal]

Just out of curiousity. Does anyone know what the record payout to a DII school is? I couldn't find out for sure but I seem to recall that NDSU paid Ferris State $150, 000 plus expenses in 2013. They gave us a better game than a couple FCS teams that year.

How about the record FCS/FBS payout? Didn't Montana get something like $800,000 for the Oregon game?

[JALMOND]

There's an even bigger risk in going with a D-III school, because while in most cases, it SHOULD be an easy win, it won't be so easy if the chosen opponent is Mount Union or Wisconsin-Whitewater. And even picking up an NAIA game could be hazardous if the opponent is of the caliber of Carroll.

NAIA shouldn't be that bad. A couple years back we showed Carroll that they are still three touchdowns behind a mid-tier Big Sky team. The only loss from the game was when they cheap-shot our All-American kicker on the first PAT attempt, deliberately diving into his plant leg and blowing out his knee.

Actually, wasn't that the same year Southern Oregon took you to overtime?

[SuperHornet]

Possibly.

NAIA (at least the upper tier teams) are usually seen as roughly equivalent to D-II in football. NAIA D-I in hoops is probably equivalent to NCAA D-II, while NAIA D-II is probably about the same as NCAA D-III.

The average fan isn't going to see that, though. Most people who aren't knowledgeable enough to post here will see NAIA as BELOW all NCAA Divisions. Those that post here, though, will likely observe that the Carrolls of the world are at least NCAA D-II in character, and possibly even FCS caliber. They have their reasons for remaining in NAIA, though....

[Wedgebuster]

Possibly.

NAIA (at least the upper tier teams) are usually seen as roughly equivalent to D-II in football. NAIA D-I in hoops is probably equivalent to NCAA D-II, while NAIA D-II is probably about the same as NCAA D-III.

The average fan isn't going to see that, though. Most people who aren't knowledgeable enough to post here will see NAIA as BELOW all NCAA Divisions. Those that post here, though, will likely observe that the Carrolls of the world are at least NCAA D-II in character, and possibly even FCS caliber. They have their reasons for remaining in NAIA, though....

Yeah, it's known as NCAA standards for one, funding would be a good strong second.