CAA Week 11 Standings & Prediction thread

[BDKJMU]

Assuming out of the CAA with a 24 team playoff field in an 11 game season, it will take 7 Div I wins to be a near lock, 9 wins & top 2 in conference to be a seed, and 10 wins to get a top 5 seed:
Standings:
1. UR (7-2/5-1) Near lock for playoffs, win out for seed: @ VU, W&M
2. W&M (7-2/5-1) Near lock for playoffs, win out for seed: TU, @ UR.
3. JMU (7-2/4-2) Near lock for playoffs, win out for possible seed: @ UD, VU.
--- TU (6-3/4-2) Win 1 of 2 for playoffs: @ W&M, URI.
--- VU (5-4/4-2) Must win out for playoffs: UR, JMU.
6. UNH (5-4/3-3) Must win out for playoffs: @ AU, Maine.
Eliminated from playoff contention:
-- UM (3-6/3-3)
8. AU (3-6/2-4)
--- UD (3-6/2-4)
--- EU (3-6/2-4)
11. SBU (3-5/1-5) (Only 10 games)
---- URI (1-8/1-5)

*Lines 5dimes as of Tues afternoon
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting ... -football/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Forecast is Accuweather has anywhere from highs mid 50s in Williamsburg to low 50s (Kingston, Villanova, Newark) to mid 40s Orono to evening upper 30s Albany. No rain forecast, so weather shouldn’t be a major factor for any of the games.

SBU @ URI (12:30) (SBU -3)

Elon @ Maine (12:30, FCS) (Maine -6.5)

TU @ W&M (1:30) (W&M -14)

UR @ VU (3:30) (VU-2)

JMU @ UD (3:30, CSN-MA+, CSN-PHL, SNY, CSN-NW, CSN-CHI+, CSN-BA) (JMU -19) (JMU coming off of a bye).

UNH @ Albany (7:00, ASN) (UNH -7)

[BDKJMU]

SBU @ URI 17-13 After SBU struggled to beat a TERRIBLE Howard team at home, going with URI in the sleight upset.

Elon @ Maine 13-10

TU @ W&M 27-17

UR @ VU 28-27

JMU @ UD 38-20 UD's terrible offense vs JMU's terrible defense ought to be a good matchup..

UNH @ Albany 24-23
At 1st glance this is a no brainer for UNH, but not so fast. UNH CAA games this year has been decent-good at home, terrible on the road. And 2 of those road teams that thumped UNH are bad teams..
W Elon 37-14
W URI 20-17 (Were down 17-0 at the half)
W UR 30-25 (5 UR turnovers to 0 for UNH)

L @ SBU 31-6
L @ W&M 34-18
L @ UD 31-17

Albany after getting thumped in their opener @ Cuse was good for a 3 game stretch. Thumped URI, played JMU tough on the road, beat Duquesne. Then were TERRIBLE for a 3 game stretch in Oct. BUT their last 2 games have been decent- lost @ UR 38-31 and won @ UD 17-6.

UNH better passing team, both are comparable running teams. Upper 30s evening temps for night game, so it might come down to which team can run better/stop the run. Last week UD came into the game with a pretty good rush defense and Albany’s 2 backs went for 135 and 134 yds. One of them has 337 in the last 2 games vs UR & UD in Albany's post bye revival. UNH’s biggest Achilles heel? Rush defense- 11th in CAA at 212 ypg (although Albany’s not a whole lot better at 9th/190 ypg).

[89Hen]

Stony Brook 24 - URI 17
Maine 28 - Elon 10
W&M 38 - Towson 27
Richmond 27 - villanova 16
JMU 36 - Delaware 17
UNH 41 - Albany 12

[bluehenbillk]

URI 17 SBU 14
UM 20 EU 10
W&M 27 TSU 21
UR 30 VU 17
JMU 31 UD 10
UNH 31 UA 21

[BDKJMU]

I said this on the JMU board in regards to UD:
"Oh they have talent along the OL and at RB. They can run the ball- #2 all games/#4 CAA games only in the CAA. But their QB and WRs suck. Again, the worst passing game I can ever remember out the CAA..

LOAD THE BOX. I don't think with their WR their QB could throw for 300 against cardboard cut outs..."

[bluehenbillk]

I said this on the JMU board in regards to UD:
"Oh they have talent along the OL and at RB. They can run the ball- #2 all games/#4 CAA games only in the CAA. But their QB and WRs suck. Again, the worst passing game I can ever remember out the CAA..

LOAD THE BOX. I don't think with their WR their QB could throw for 300 against cardboard cut outs..."

UD has so-so talent on the OL. They're inconsistent run blocking & can't pass block. Yes, RB they are loaded. Their WR's & TE's aren't good and playing Walker at QB this year was a mistake, no other way to put it. Rankin is the better option.

The OC & HC have done nothing to help the offense, dumbing it down to levels I've never seen in Newark.

[LeadBolt]

Looking at the probability of winning out in both of their remaining games as assessed by Massey, the 6 potential CAA play-off teams show the following approximate odds of taking both of their last games:

JMU = 62%
W&M = 50%
UNH = 45%
Richmond = 18%
Villanova = 17%
Towson = 14%

We all know that the CAA in November usually does not play out as a computer model would predict, but I found this interesting.

[bluehenbillk]

LOAD THE BOX. I don't think with their WR their QB could throw for 300 against cardboard cut outs..."

Teams have tried that approach from time to time but rarely stay in it. When teams load the box it's kind of like a 4th & 1 call and everyone knows a run is coming - the run either gets stuffed or produces a short gain or the back hits open space. Both of UD's backs are home run hitters so I think most team are more comfortable picking their spots to load up on the run & are more willing to bet UD can't put together a long drive, which frankly they don't do very often.

Laycock & McConnell completely fell asleep against UD & only had 6 guys in the box and got shredded.

[dbackjon]

SBU
Maine
W&M
Richmond
JMU
UNH

[Seahawks08]

UR @ VU 28-27

You. I like you.

[BDKJMU]

SBU @ URI 17-13 After SBU struggled to beat a TERRIBLE Howard team at home, going with URI in the sleight upset.

Elon @ Maine 13-10

TU @ W&M 27-17

UR @ VU 28-27

JMU @ UD 38-20 UD's terrible offense vs JMU's terrible defense ought to be a good matchup..

UNH @ Albany 24-23
At 1st glance this is a no brainer for UNH, but not so fast. UNH CAA games this year has been decent-good at home, terrible on the road. And 2 of those road teams that thumped UNH are bad teams..
W Elon 37-14
W URI 20-17 (Were down 17-0 at the half)
W UR 30-25 (5 UR turnovers to 0 for UNH)

L @ SBU 31-6
L @ W&M 34-18
L @ UD 31-17

Albany after getting thumped in their opener @ Cuse was good for a 3 game stretch. Thumped URI, played JMU tough on the road, beat Duquesne. Then were TERRIBLE for a 3 game stretch in Oct. BUT their last 2 games have been decent- lost @ UR 38-31 and won @ UD 17-6.

UNH better passing team, both are comparable running teams. Upper 30s evening temps for night game, so it might come down to which team can run better/stop the run. Last week UD came into the game with a pretty good rush defense and Albany’s 2 backs went for 135 and 134 yds. One of them has 337 in the last 2 games vs UR & UD in Albany's post bye revival. UNH’s biggest Achilles heel? Rush defense- 11th in CAA at 212 ypg (although Albany’s not a whole lot better at 9th/190 ypg).

SBU 19, URI 7
Elon 27, Maine 22
W&M 31, TU 17
VU 21, UR 20
JMU 24, UD 21
UNH 24, Albany 14

[bluehenbillk]

It's going to be a quick postseason for the CAA - I don't see anybody making the quarterfinals.

[89Hen]

Stony Brook 24 - URI 17 (19-7)
Maine 28 - Elon 10 (22-27)
W&M 38 - Towson 27 (31-17)
Richmond 27 - villanova 16 (20-21)
JMU 36 - Delaware 17 (24-21)
UNH 41 - Albany 12 (24-14)

[89Hen]

It's going to be a quick postseason for the CAA - I don't see anybody making the quarterfinals.

Meh, there are a lot of mediocre teams out there that will make the playoffs. Somebody will probably make it. What are we now, 24 teams?

SUU
PSU
NAU
Chuck So
CCU
W&M
JMU
Richmond/villanova
NCAT
IllSt
NDSU
SDSU
UNI
Duquesne/StFrancis
JSU
Colgate/Fordham
Dayton
Chattanooga
The Citadel
McNeese St
UCA
SHSU

That's only 22. It's really hard to even get to 24

[BDKJMU]

It's going to be a quick postseason for the CAA - I don't see anybody making the quarterfinals.

Name 8 really good teams. I can't..

[BDKJMU]

It's going to be a quick postseason for the CAA - I don't see anybody making the quarterfinals.

They'll be at least 4 CAA in. Care to wager on not one making the qtrs?

[vutomcat]

It's going to be a quick postseason for the CAA - I don't see anybody making the quarterfinals.

Maybe so. We have JMU who lost the likely Payton award winner, Richmond who has one decent win and has been overrated the entire year, Nova who lost their Payton award winner and UNH who had a very weak schedule and 4 losses.

However, W&M will be a very tough opponent for anyone. Their running backs are first rate, the QB is skilled and smart and the defense headed by Luke Rhodes is very good. They should be seeded and will be favored to win their first game. I see them as a likely quarterfinalist and potential semis. I will be rooting for them to carry the CAA banner.

This could have been a very good CAA season, but key injuries killed multiple teams chances for runs in the playoffs.

[bluehenbillk]

It's going to be a quick postseason for the CAA - I don't see anybody making the quarterfinals.

They'll be at least 4 CAA in. Care to wager on not one making the qtrs?

4 CAA in? Somebody making the quarters? Yes, I'd wager on BOTH of those statements.

[BDKJMU]

They'll be at least 4 CAA in. Care to wager on not one making the qtrs?

4 CAA in? Somebody making the quarters? Yes, I'd wager on BOTH of those statements.

I'll wager you $20 via Paypal:
4 (or more) CAA teams get in the playoffs I win.
Only 3 CAA teams get in the playoffs you win.

Another $20:
1 or more of those CAA teams makes the Quarters/Final 8, I win.
None make the quarters/past the round of 16, you win.

[89Hen]

4 CAA in? Somebody making the quarters? Yes, I'd wager on BOTH of those statements.

I'll wager you $20 via Paypal:
4 (or more) CAA teams get in the playoffs I win.
Only 3 CAA teams get in the playoffs you win.

Another $20:
1 or more of those CAA teams makes the Quarters/Final 8, I win.
None make the quarters/past the round of 16, you win.

Odds say no money will be exchanged. 3 teams, but somebody makes the quarters.

[BDKJMU]

I'll wager you $20 via Paypal:
4 (or more) CAA teams get in the playoffs I win.
Only 3 CAA teams get in the playoffs you win.

Another $20:
1 or more of those CAA teams makes the Quarters/Final 8, I win.
None make the quarters/past the round of 16, you win.

Odds say no money will be exchanged. 3 teams, but somebody makes the quarters.

No, odds are I'd win $40..

nobowls projects 5 CAA:
W&M #6 seed
JMU
UR
UNH
Towson
http://nobowls.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And their bracket (it won't be the one) would virtually guarantee a CAA made the qtrs by having JMU host StFU in the round of 24 (or it could be Dusquene (StFU & Duquesne play for NEC AQ on Sat). Then you'd have a JMU @ #6 seed W&M in the round of 16..

[TribePride]

BDKJMU:

I am not sure that I want to see it again since I still have flashbacks of 2004. 2009 for you, Vutomcat. The only CAA foe we have taken down in the playoffs was the Hens in 2004 and it took an unbelievable comeback to make it happen.

I think the CAA will get 4 as long as we have 4 teams or more with 7 wins. JMU and W&M are locks. Richmond probably wins the autobid with a win and if not, then both Richmond and Nova get in. If Richmond and Villanova lose, then Richmond might still get in and there is still Towson and New Hampshire with shots. I expect both Towson and New Hampshire to win. No way the CAA gets 6 bids, but it could get 5. As for the team in the quarters, it seems very likely that the committee will pit the CAA against itself. I am hoping not because it would be nice to have the chance to advance several teams to the quarters and beyond. On their best day, W&M, Richmond, JMU, and Villanova are all capable of making a run. Towson is playing very good defense right now and New Hampshire just wins games late in the year.

If one of the CAA teams gets a home first round game against Colgate or another within 400 mile school, they will be favored. For the second round, it depends: I don't think the Tribe, Richmond or JMU would be intimidated going anywhere except possibly the FargoDome. As much as everyone wants to knock the CAA, it is still better than most of the conferences. It is still on par with the Big Sky and better than everything else but the MVFC.
The MVFC only getting 4, leaving 11 at large bids. The Big Sky might get 3, but it might get 1 or 2. The Big South definitely gets 1 and the So Con might get another. OVC gets 1 and the Southland probably gets 1. The Patriot is going to get 1. Even factoring 3 for the Big Sky and 3 at large for the MVFC, there is still room for 3 at larges for the CAA. They will only get 4 at larges, if there are massive upsets in the Big Sky or Colgate loses the autobid it already won, or the committee leaves out a 7-4 2nd place OVC team, or 2nd southland team.

[vutomcat]

I'll wager you $20 via Paypal:
4 (or more) CAA teams get in the playoffs I win.
Only 3 CAA teams get in the playoffs you win.

Another $20:
1 or more of those CAA teams makes the Quarters/Final 8, I win.
None make the quarters/past the round of 16, you win.

Odds say no money will be exchanged. 3 teams, but somebody makes the quarters.

Why only 3? Wouldn't Towson or UNH get in if they both win this week? Don't blame you for not expecting Nova to win but one of the other two should get in. Are you expecting Richmond to be left out too?

[YoUDeeMan]

It's going to be a quick postseason for the CAA - I don't see anybody making the quarterfinals.

Maybe so. We have JMU who lost the likely Payton award winner, Richmond who has one decent win and has been overrated the entire year, Nova who lost their Payton award winner and UNH who had a very weak schedule and 4 losses.

However, W&M will be a very tough opponent for anyone. Their running backs are first rate, the QB is skilled and smart and the defense headed by Luke Rhodes is very good. They should be seeded and will be favored to win their first game. I see them as a likely quarterfinalist and potential semis. I will be rooting for them to carry the CAA banner.

This could have been a very good CAA season, but key injuries killed multiple teams chances for runs in the playoffs.

W&M has no real defense.

UD ran all over them and dominated TOP while Laycock just watched. That wasn't a fluke...the top CAA teams do not have good run defenses this year. JMU belongs in the Big Sky.

[vutomcat]

Statistics show William and Mary is as well balanced as anyone. As a a Hen fan, you should know better than anyone that you can't judge a team on one game.