FCS Playoffs - 2nd Round: SHSU @ McNeese

[dbackjon]

Yet another rematch.


McNeese won the first, will win the 2nd.

[JohnStOnge]

More probably than not, no. But I'll hope for an upset.

[BDKJMU]

More probably than not, no. But I'll hope for an upset.

Why would you be rooting for SHSU
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting ... s-2959498/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Gil Dobie]

Sam may win this one as Keeler gets his teams ready to play in December.

[JohnStOnge]

More probably than not, no. But I'll hope for an upset.

Why would you be rooting for SHSU
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting ... s-2959498/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lines aside I think they are very evenly matched teams and I think when you have a rematch between evenly matched teams in a situation like this the loser of the first matchup has the advantage.

Also, KC Keeler has had a much more impressive playoff history than Matt Viator. Matt Viator has done a great job as head coach of McNeese. But he is 0-4 in playoff games. To me that's a psychological edge for Sam Houston State if nothing else.

I'm not saying I would be shocked if McNeese wins. But if I try to just look at it objectively and ask what I'd do if I was a fan of neither school and was betting on who would win straight up I'd bet on Sam Houston State in this one.

Obviously I hope it turns out otherwise.

[JohnStOnge]

As I said in another thread the thing that worries me the most about this game is the question of whether or not McNeese's OFFENSE can perform like it did lat time. Last time they were able to play a possession game and use clock. You could see what they were doing. They rushed for 305 yards and they ran the play clock every play. Took their time. They had 37:34 time of possession to Sam Houston State's 22:26. Sam Houston State likes to get near or beyond 100 plays on offense and against McNeese they only got 66.

The problem is that McNeese is Jekyll and Hyde on offense. The week before they did so well on offense against Sam Houston State, for instance, they only managed 138 yards rushing and 306 total yards against Abilene Christian.

So you don't know what you're going to get. The stars aligned the first time and they picked what was the game for the conference automatic bid to play well on offense. Will it happen again? I don't know. But I know that they can't ask their defense to win the game if they play offense like they did against Abilene Christian. I also know that Sam Houston State has reviewed the video of the first game and will probably have some ideas as to how to do better on defense this time. It's going to take one heck effort to beat the same team twice in this case.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Can McNeese finally get over their Viator-era playoff curse? Playing a familiar conference opponent might help. This is a game McNeese should probably win, but the fact they've lost their last 5 playoff games (4 of them at home) by lopsided margins should give any prognosticator pause. Because of this, I see this game as one—though difficult to pick—that will likely be decided by double digits one way or the other. Both teams run well but only the Cowboys can stop it, so I'll take the McNeese side of the coin.

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- Sam Houston St.
      
      Running Backs - Sam Houston St.
      
      Receivers/TEs - Sam Houston St.
      
      Offensive Line - (push)
      
      
      Defensive Line - McNeese St.
      
      Linebackers --- (push)
      
      Secondary ---- McNeese St.
      
      
      Kicking ------ Sam Houston St.
      
      Punting ------ McNeese St.
      
      Return Teams - McNeese St.
      
      Kickoffs ------ McNeese St.
      
      
      
      
      
      • Sam Houston St. 21-34 McNeese St.

[YoUDeeMan]

Can McNeese finally get over their Viator-era playoff curse? Playing a familiar conference opponent might help. This is a game McNeese should probably win, but the fact they've lost their last 5 playoff games (4 of them at home) by lopsided margins should give any prognosticator pause. Because of this, I see this game as one—though difficult to pick—that will likely be decided by double digits one way or the other. Both teams run well but only the Cowboys can stop it, so I'll take the McNeese side of the coin.

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- Sam Houston St.
      
      Running Backs - Sam Houston St.
      
      Receivers/TEs - Sam Houston St.
      
      Offensive Line - (push)
      
      
      Defensive Line - McNeese St.
      
      Linebackers --- (push)
      
      Secondary ---- McNeese St.
      
      
      Kicking ------ Sam Houston St.
      
      Punting ------ McNeese St.
      
      Return Teams - McNeese St.
      
      Kickoffs ------ McNeese St.
      
      
      
      
      
      • Sam Houston St. 21-34 McNeese St.

SHSU punter is going to be playing on Sundays.

[89Hen]

Keeler gets his teams ready to play in December.

The only trick for him is getting there.

[Mvemjsunpx]

SHSU punter is going to be playing on Sundays.

Edwards's stats are noticeably down from last year, and McNeese leads the nation in net punting.

[JohnStOnge]

SHSU punter is going to be playing on Sundays.

Actually the guy that finished as the first team all Southland Conference punter is McNeese State's Jean Breaux. I think it's because he's very good at directional punting and pinning opponents back in bad field position. Weird that he was better at that this season than Sam Houston State's guy was because Sam Houston State's guy is one of those Australian Rules Football guys. But he was. But Breaux really has been good at that this year. A real ace.

Also, isn't Sam Houston State's starting placekicker out so that they're struggling in that aspect of the game? McNeese isn't great in the placekicking game but I think they are in better shape than Sam Houston State is.

Finally, I think McNeese has better linebackers than Sam Houston State does. At the very least it's a push. No way Sam Houston State has BETTER linebackers.

Running back is interesting. I think McNeese is right there with Sam Houston State in terms of the top two on the depth chart but depth beyond that is an issue because they've lost three running backs that were important to them over the season and Sam Houston State has shown they started off incredibly deep at running back. But if Corey Avery and Jalen Overstreet are not able to play McNeese is going to have the best two backs playing that day on the field. If Avery and Overstreet play but aren't 100% that'll be interesting too. Avery looked like he had a serious concussion against Southern Utah so it'll be interesting to see if he plays. He is HUGE. That is Sam Houston' State's best player, I think. Overstreet ain't bad either.

Quarterback is interesting too. I guess you have to say Sam Houston State has the edge there as Johnson was the first team all SLC quarterback while Sams was second team all SLC and he has horrible looking passing stats. But Sams is more of a big play threat. And that's saying something because Johnson is a pretty imposing big play threat himself. If Sams gets into the open field running the ball he is insane. And he has a strong, accurate deep arm. He's more accurate deep, I think, than he is on the routine throws. Also Johnson may not be 100% as far as his ability to move around goes.

All that said, while I"m hopeful, if I try to stay objective I favor Sam Houston State to win. Not that I"d be shocked if McNeese won. But if I had to pick straight up I'd pick Sam Houston State because McNeese has never won a playoff game under Matt Viator, KC Keeler has a very good playoff resume, and I think that the team that lost during the regular season has an advantage to begin with.

[AZGrizFan]

Lines aside I think they are very evenly matched teams and I think when you have a rematch between evenly matched teams in a situation like this the loser of the first matchup has the advantage.

In what POSSIBLE way could this be true?

[Grizalltheway]

Lines aside I think they are very evenly matched teams and I think when you have a rematch between evenly matched teams in a situation like this the loser of the first matchup has the advantage.

In what POSSIBLE way could this be true?

Yeah, I tried to convince myself that was the case with the Griz and Eastern last year.

[JohnStOnge]

Lines aside I think they are very evenly matched teams and I think when you have a rematch between evenly matched teams in a situation like this the loser of the first matchup has the advantage.

In what POSSIBLE way could this be true?

I think that the loser has more to "correct" when they watch video to prepare for the next game. They are going to change their game plan. The winner has a game plan that worked the first time. They can see some things that they can do better maybe but what are they going to do about what worked?

The loser gets to look at what worked to win the game for the other team the first time and try to come up with counter measures.

I saw a very dramatic example of that when McNeese played Western Kentucky in the 2002 national title game after having beaten the HIlltoppers 38-13 during the regular season. Western Kentucky only got 13 first downs to 26 for McNeese during the title game.

But Western Kentucky did two things differently based on the first matchup. First, they would not punt to BJ Sams and they went into the game saying "BJ Sams is not going to beat us." They punted the ball out of bounds and were all over Sams anywhere he went. Second they knew that McNeese was going to blitz in certain ways in certain situations and they got big plays off of that with screen/swing passes to the running backs. And they said so after the game. They talked about anticipating what McNeese was going to do when Western Kentucky was in third and long based on what happened during the first game and designing plays to get big plays off of that. So even though they did not move the ball consistently in the championship game while McNeese did they got big plays and they kept BJ Sams from making big plays on the other side.

Sams had gotten 316 all purpose yards against Western Kentucky in the first game so they came in with a game plan to keep that sort of thing from happening again. Part of it was just punting out of bounds. Part of it was really focusing on him.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Sams throws a TD pass to make it 10-7 Cowboys. The Bearkats gambled & lost on a tight pass in the flat earlier in the drive. Former Senator Jean Breaux tacks on the PAT.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Sams with 2 TD passes!

17-7 Cowboys
13:32 2Q

[Mvemjsunpx]

SHSU has rattled off 2 straight touchdowns and they now lead 21-17.

[93henfan]

The Fightin' Keelers have made it a game.

[Mvemjsunpx]

24-17 Bearkats at the half.

[htownbearkat]

The Fightin' Keelers have made it a game.

Very ugly first half but kat 24-17 somehow.

[htownbearkat]

Kats 34-23

[Mvemjsunpx]

Bearkats win 34-29. 6 straight playoff losses for McNeese, though at least this one was close.

[htownbearkat]

Kats pull off the miracle upset and the bracket opens up for a elite 8 home game.

[93henfan]

Congrats on the nice win, but calling it a miracle upset is being melodramatic. McNeese was only a two point favorite on home field. This game was expected to be very close and it was.

Glad to see Keeler get yet another FCS playoff victory.

[YoUDeeMan]

SHSU puts up 494 yards against the McNeese defense.

GO KC Keeler!