clenz wrote:
Yep, UNI lost at national runner up in the playoffs. That's a shameful loss. The issue was the guy playing QB. He completed 46% of his passes. Bailey is at 57. Carnes woudln't run, Bailey is over 7.0 yards per carry when sacks are taken out. The second half of that game, once QB's were changed UNI outscored, and out gained, Illinois State
You want to know how silly the efficiency rating can be?
Illinois State QB, Tre Roberson, has completed just 48% of his passes this season - and 35% of his passes the last 6 weeks - and he leads the conference in pass efficiency at 152.1. Their back up QB also completes about 40% of his passes....YET...Illinois State is 13th in the nation for team offensive pass efficiency at 148.39
Even more silly? Take the EWU game out -the only game the pass defense was actually bad (something you can't tell looking at the efficiency, but whatever) and the rating drops low enough to put UNI nearly 30 spots higher in the national ratings.
The punt average is completely skewed from the punter that started the season. 193 of the 313 punt return yards UNI has allowed this year came in the first game of the season. It's why that punter is no longer the punter. Since that game the punt coverage team is allowing 8.5 yards per return, essentially the same as PSU. Also UNI's Inside 20 to TB ratio is 3.0...24-8, and once again, higher after the first punter was benched - 3.5:1
Where are you getting your numbers from?
This is fun, because it's clear you haven't watched a second of UNI football this year.
Gee, does every team get to throw out everything they did bad so they can look awesome, too?
PSU could make similar arguments to yours because they were using an inexperienced head coach and that's why they lost to NoDak in September, etc. The more you remove, the less statistically significant what's left becomes. The Panthers are playing better in recent weeks than they were earlier, no doubt, but they've also had a more favorable schedule over that stretch.
You were right about the In-20:TB ratio; I looked at the wrong column when I replied earlier. Still, PSU's net average is better, and their punt coverage & In-20:TB numbers are still better even with the Iowa State game thrown out. It's a push at best for UNI, and that's stretching it quite far.
If you think completion percentage is more important than efficiency rating, I can't help you. Roberson is still averaging nearly 10 yards-per-attempt despite the low %. YPA is definitely more important than completion % alone, and that number is the biggest component to efficiency rating.
And your argument that the EWU game was the only one where UNI had weak pass D is complete bullshit. One game out of 12 with a 190-something rating allowed is not gonna skew things
that much, and this same EWU team had a 102.4 rating against Montana and a 127.3 rating against PSU. I count 7 games where the Panthers allowed their opponents an above average efficiency rating (the median rating this year was 125.6):
Iowa St. - 162.7
EWU - 196.6
NDSU - 158.4 (NDSU actually threw it 40 times; you don't see that often)
WIU - 134.4
SDSU - 132.3
ISU(b) - 142.3 (3 INTs, but ISU averaged about 9 ypa)
SIU - 134.4
Now you can take the ISU(b) game in particular with a grain of salt since it was a blowout, but that still leaves 6 games. The UNI secondary does seem adept at getting big plays, but they also seem vulnerable to giving them up.
