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I had to start this thread? Were dback, clenz, & JALMOND all kidnapped by terrorists or something?

Very tough game to pick here. Northern Iowa seems to have the matchup edge since their run defense is a bit better than Portland State's, although I will say PSU's passing game is better than the Panthers and UNI's pass defense is suspect. The main reason to go with the Viks, however, is the fact this game isn't in the UNI-Dome. Northern Iowa is averaging 39.7 ppg at home, but is only getting 22.2 ppg on the road. They've also only been on the road in 1 of their last 5 games and that was against comically awful Missouri State. I'll go with Portland in a squeaker.

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- Northern Iowa
      
      Running Backs - (push)
      
      Receivers/TEs - Portland St.
      
      Offensive Line - Portland St.
      
      
      Defensive Line - Northern Iowa
      
      Linebackers --- Northern Iowa
      
      Secondary ---- Portland St.
      
      
      Kicking ------ Portland St.
      
      Punting ------ Portland St.
      
      Return Teams - Northern Iowa
      
      Kickoffs ------ Northern Iowa
      
      
      
      
      
      • Northern Iowa 24-26 Portland St.

Sorry. This whole playoff thing is new to us out here. Trying to explain to the people in Portland that this is not a bowl game, but the playoffs. We win, we go on (like Linfield).

UNI has a the offense and defense to do to PSU what UND did and I want to give them the slight edge but you're stats regarding UNI away are excellent.

The travel (not necessarily the home field but I hope the Portland peeps turn out) and game time definitely favor PSU (and I know Clenz, you played later @ Poly).

If Kuresa makes a few more plays than Bailey in the passing game, I think the Vikes win.

JALMOND wrote:Sorry. This whole playoff thing is new to us out here. Trying to explain to the people in Portland that this is not a bowl game, but the playoffs. We win, we go on (like Linfield).

Enjoy the ride, J. I hope it's a long one and you deserve it!

I did hear we have 7000 tickets sold already and it is only Friday night. I don't know how many of that is UNI fans. In perspective, we had 8100 for the game against Montana State (of course some of that was Bobcat fans). The Friday before the Griz game, we had 8000 sold (and of course, some of that was Griz fans).

JALMOND wrote:I did hear we have 7000 tickets sold already and it is only Friday night. I don't know how many of that is UNI fans. In perspective, we had 8100 for the game against Montana State (of course some of that was Bobcat fans). The Friday before the Griz game, we had 8000 sold (and of course, some of that was Griz fans).

Nice! I hope they marketed the shit out of it. Eastern has for all of our playoff runs and it helps long term with branding.

Keep in mind that our toughest games were on the road - NDSU, Ill. St., SDSU, Cal Poly - so that has an impact on what we were able to score.

If we keep playing like we have been I like our chances. Should be a good game either way.

UNI's pass defense as suspect? Man, I don't know about that. Deiondre Hall and Tim Kilfoy were 1/2 in the MVFC in picks, UNI was first in the conference in picks, and ran 5 of them back for TDs. Outside of the EWU game, who make a lot of pass defenses look bad, UNI is giving up under 200 yards per game...to go along with just 3.0 yards per carry.

In FCS games on the road UNI is averaging 26 points per game scored...and giving up just 15. Might want to include both numbers in that break down.

UNI's defense has 91 TFL, 18 forced fumbles, 32 sacks, giving up less than 3.0 ypc the last 6.

The last 6 games for UNI are completely different than the first 6, and that has to be taken into account. The first 6 UNI tried to force 2 QBs, tried to use 5 running backs, etc.. Since then It's been all Aaron Bailey and Tyvis Smith. Over that time Tyvis is averaging over 90 yards per game and nearly 6 yards per carry (with 3 100 yard games). Bailey is 57-100 for nearly 900 yards passing with 8 TD and just 1 INT. Rushing he has 14 TD and another nearly 700 yards.

I'm not going to go look at punting stats for PSU, but UNI's punter is at 43 yards per punt, 17ish inside the 20, another 13th fair caught, and 20ish of 50 yards plus.


UNI has experience with late kick offs. We kicked off at 9:37 central time earlier this year at Cal Poly...jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter. Last year UNI kicked off at 11:30 PM central time in Hawaii and lost by just 3...the game ended at almost 4 AM Iowa time.

8,100 would be the second smallest road crowd UNI has played infront of this year - god awful Missouri State announced just under 6K. The average of the road crowds UNI has played in front of is over 21K.....over 13K in FCS games.


I got a chuckle out of the PSU coach mentioning it would be raining and "cold" because it was going to be in the 40s - something about chipping ice off the ball. Turns out it was upper 30s in Iowa today and there were people walking around in just t-shirts because it felt too warm to wear anything heavier than a light wind jacket. Rain? Yeah. In the last week and a half in Cedar Falls they've gotten 13 inches of snow, nearly 2 inches of rain, and sustained winds over 40 MPH multiple times for a 24 hour span. Turns our we have weather here too. What's that? UNI is a dome team and won't know how to handle that kind of weather? Yeah, because UNI doesn't have 3 outdoor practice fields to use and our coaches are too dumb to think about that.

Defense and a run game travel better than passing games, especially come playoff time. Well, UNI has 2 guys over 800 yards (1 over 1k), and 4 guys who averaged over 5 yards per carry on the season, and 28 rushing TD. The defense gives up 3.2 ypc on the season (and was better against CP than PSU) and is under 3.0 the last half of the season.


UNI by 10

clenz wrote:UNI's pass defense as suspect? Man, I don't know about that. Deiondre Hall and Tim Kilfoy were 1/2 in the MVFC in picks, UNI was first in the conference in picks, and ran 5 of them back for TDs. Outside of the EWU game, who make a lot of pass defenses look bad, UNI is giving up under 200 yards per game...to go along with just 3.0 yards per carry.

UNI's efficiency D is below average (131.1), and that's despite a decent pass rush and good run defense.

I'm not going to go look at punting stats for PSU, but UNI's punter is at 43 yards per punt, 17ish inside the 20, another 13th fair caught, and 20ish of 50 yards plus.

Punt coverage is the main difference. UNI isn't very good there, and that leads their net to be worse even though the gross average is better. UNI's In-20:TB ratio of 2.0 also isn't that great (PSU's is 4.33).

I got a chuckle out of the PSU coach mentioning it would be raining and "cold" because it was going to be in the 40s - something about chipping ice off the ball. Turns out it was upper 30s in Iowa today and there were people walking around in just t-shirts because it felt too warm to wear anything heavier than a light wind jacket. Rain? Yeah. In the last week and a half in Cedar Falls they've gotten 13 inches of snow, nearly 2 inches of rain, and sustained winds over 40 MPH multiple times for a 24 hour span. Turns our we have weather here too. What's that? UNI is a dome team and won't know how to handle that kind of weather? Yeah, because UNI doesn't have 3 outdoor practice fields to use and our coaches are too dumb to think about that.

Defense and a run game travel better than passing games, especially come playoff time. Well, UNI has 2 guys over 800 yards (1 over 1k), and 4 guys who averaged over 5 yards per carry on the season, and 28 rushing TD. The defense gives up 3.2 ypc on the season (and was better against CP than PSU) and is under 3.0 the last half of the season.

Didn't the Panthers get creamed in their road playoff game last year, and against a team they beat at home by double digits?

UNI by 10

If the Griz win, I hope you're right. The Panthers are due for another beatdown in WaGriz.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

clenz wrote:UNI's pass defense as suspect? Man, I don't know about that. Deiondre Hall and Tim Kilfoy were 1/2 in the MVFC in picks, UNI was first in the conference in picks, and ran 5 of them back for TDs. Outside of the EWU game, who make a lot of pass defenses look bad, UNI is giving up under 200 yards per game...to go along with just 3.0 yards per carry.

UNI's efficiency D is below average (131.1), and that's despite a decent pass rush and good run defense.

I'm not going to go look at punting stats for PSU, but UNI's punter is at 43 yards per punt, 17ish inside the 20, another 13th fair caught, and 20ish of 50 yards plus.

Punt coverage is the main difference. UNI isn't very good there, and that leads their net to be worse even though the gross average is better. UNI's In-20:TB ratio of 2.0 also isn't that great (PSU's is 4.33).

I got a chuckle out of the PSU coach mentioning it would be raining and "cold" because it was going to be in the 40s - something about chipping ice off the ball. Turns out it was upper 30s in Iowa today and there were people walking around in just t-shirts because it felt too warm to wear anything heavier than a light wind jacket. Rain? Yeah. In the last week and a half in Cedar Falls they've gotten 13 inches of snow, nearly 2 inches of rain, and sustained winds over 40 MPH multiple times for a 24 hour span. Turns our we have weather here too. What's that? UNI is a dome team and won't know how to handle that kind of weather? Yeah, because UNI doesn't have 3 outdoor practice fields to use and our coaches are too dumb to think about that.

Defense and a run game travel better than passing games, especially come playoff time. Well, UNI has 2 guys over 800 yards (1 over 1k), and 4 guys who averaged over 5 yards per carry on the season, and 28 rushing TD. The defense gives up 3.2 ypc on the season (and was better against CP than PSU) and is under 3.0 the last half of the season.

Didn't the Panthers get creamed in their road playoff game last year, and against a team they beat at home by double digits?

UNI by 10

If the Griz win, I hope you're right. The Panthers are due for another beatdown in WaGriz.

Yep, UNI lost at national runner up in the playoffs. That's a shameful loss. The issue was the guy playing QB. He completed 46% of his passes. Bailey is at 57. Carnes woudln't run, Bailey is over 7.0 yards per carry when sacks are taken out. The second half of that game, once QB's were changed UNI outscored, and out gained, Illinois State

You want to know how silly the efficiency rating can be?

Illinois State QB, Tre Roberson, has completed just 48% of his passes this season - and 35% of his passes the last 6 weeks - and he leads the conference in pass efficiency at 152.1. Their back up QB also completes about 40% of his passes....YET...Illinois State is 13th in the nation for team offensive pass efficiency at 148.39

Even more silly? Take the EWU game out -the only game the pass defense was actually bad (something you can't tell looking at the efficiency, but whatever) and the rating drops low enough to put UNI nearly 30 spots higher in the national ratings.

The punt average is completely skewed from the punter that started the season. 193 of the 313 punt return yards UNI has allowed this year came in the first game of the season. It's why that punter is no longer the punter. Since that game the punt coverage team is allowing 8.5 yards per return, essentially the same as PSU. Also UNI's Inside 20 to TB ratio is 3.0...24-8, and once again, higher after the first punter was benched - 3.5:1


Where are you getting your numbers from?

This is fun, because it's clear you haven't watched a second of UNI football this year.

clenz wrote: Yep, UNI lost at national runner up in the playoffs. That's a shameful loss. The issue was the guy playing QB. He completed 46% of his passes. Bailey is at 57. Carnes woudln't run, Bailey is over 7.0 yards per carry when sacks are taken out. The second half of that game, once QB's were changed UNI outscored, and out gained, Illinois State

You want to know how silly the efficiency rating can be?

Illinois State QB, Tre Roberson, has completed just 48% of his passes this season - and 35% of his passes the last 6 weeks - and he leads the conference in pass efficiency at 152.1. Their back up QB also completes about 40% of his passes....YET...Illinois State is 13th in the nation for team offensive pass efficiency at 148.39

Even more silly? Take the EWU game out -the only game the pass defense was actually bad (something you can't tell looking at the efficiency, but whatever) and the rating drops low enough to put UNI nearly 30 spots higher in the national ratings.

The punt average is completely skewed from the punter that started the season. 193 of the 313 punt return yards UNI has allowed this year came in the first game of the season. It's why that punter is no longer the punter. Since that game the punt coverage team is allowing 8.5 yards per return, essentially the same as PSU. Also UNI's Inside 20 to TB ratio is 3.0...24-8, and once again, higher after the first punter was benched - 3.5:1


Where are you getting your numbers from?

This is fun, because it's clear you haven't watched a second of UNI football this year.

Gee, does every team get to throw out everything they did bad so they can look awesome, too? PSU could make similar arguments to yours because they were using an inexperienced head coach and that's why they lost to NoDak in September, etc. The more you remove, the less statistically significant what's left becomes. The Panthers are playing better in recent weeks than they were earlier, no doubt, but they've also had a more favorable schedule over that stretch.

You were right about the In-20:TB ratio; I looked at the wrong column when I replied earlier. Still, PSU's net average is better, and their punt coverage & In-20:TB numbers are still better even with the Iowa State game thrown out. It's a push at best for UNI, and that's stretching it quite far.

If you think completion percentage is more important than efficiency rating, I can't help you. Roberson is still averaging nearly 10 yards-per-attempt despite the low %. YPA is definitely more important than completion % alone, and that number is the biggest component to efficiency rating.

And your argument that the EWU game was the only one where UNI had weak pass D is complete bullshit. One game out of 12 with a 190-something rating allowed is not gonna skew things that much, and this same EWU team had a 102.4 rating against Montana and a 127.3 rating against PSU. I count 7 games where the Panthers allowed their opponents an above average efficiency rating (the median rating this year was 125.6):

Iowa St. - 162.7
EWU - 196.6
NDSU - 158.4 (NDSU actually threw it 40 times; you don't see that often)
WIU - 134.4
SDSU - 132.3
ISU(b) - 142.3 (3 INTs, but ISU averaged about 9 ypa)
SIU - 134.4

Now you can take the ISU(b) game in particular with a grain of salt since it was a blowout, but that still leaves 6 games. The UNI secondary does seem adept at getting big plays, but they also seem vulnerable to giving them up.

PSU you played against 5 top 20 FCS passing offenses and the #1 FBS passing offense. UNI played 2 in the top 20 with with one more just outside the top 20 (SDSU #23).

A couple interesting stats for Portland State:

1. They are 1-2 against teams with "North" in their names, losing to both North Dakota and Northern Colorado, but beating FBS North Texas.

2. They are also 4-0 at Providence Park this season, wins against fellow Big Sky teams Montana State, Montana, and Southern Utah. No slouches among any of those teams.

First blood by the state of Oregon over the state of Iowa in the two playoff battles.

Southern Oregon over Morningside, 30-27 in the NAIA.

On to PSU/UNI.

UNI strikes first. 7-0.

PSU has to settle for a FG.

7-3 UNI
13:18 2Q

7-3 now after a drive that seemed to last a week.

UNI with a TD but PSU blocks the PAT

13-3
2:38 left 2Q

Bailey gets a long touchdown after an embarrassing display of attempted tackling by the Viks. PAT blocked.

13-3 Panthers
late 2Q

UNI with a 44 yd FG to end the half

16-3

UNI hits a 45-yard FG to end the half after an offsides penalty on the Viks. 16-3.

There are only about 25 combined passing yards in this game. A dropped touchdown pass by PSU is looming large as they fumbled on the next play and then let Bailey run for a long one.

But that UNI pass defense sucks

Mvemjsunpx wrote:UNI hits a 45-yard FG to end the half after an offsides penalty on the Viks. 16-3.

There are only about 25 combined passing yards in this game. A dropped touchdown pass by PSU is looming large as they fumbled on the next play and then let Bailey run for a long one.

35 total yards of passing. 33 for UNI and 2 for PSU.
UNI is 6-10 passing and PSU is 1-10. PSU didn't complete it's first pass until about 2:00 left in the half.

UNI has 236 total yards to PSU's 90 yards.

The rain is likely playing a part in the passing as well.

Props to the PSU fans that are sticking with it in the rain.

1-10 2 yards 0 td 0 int is a efficiency of 11.68

Holy cow...Chad Tough story...tear jerker.