The #1 team's schedule strength

[JohnStOnge]

What the heck this might give you guys something to talk about. I looked into it just because I think McNeese still has a shot at the playoffs if they can win their last two games. If they do that they'd finish 7-4 with a win over Sam Houston State, which is ranked #1 in the STATS and Coaches polls. Obviously McNeese is a big underdog and they should be. But as I was looking at info related to the game I was taken by just how weak Sam Houston State's schedule has been. Here's my description of that from a post on the Geauxcowboys.org forum:

I also do think that, as impressive as Sam Houston State has been, the Bearkats have played an extremely weak schedule. No FBS games. No ranked FCS opponents. The top rated team they've played is, according to Sagarin's system, rated 47th in FCS. That was Lamar. Lamar IS rated slightly higher than McNeese in Sagarin right now. But the point is Sam Houston State has not been tested by top competition. Their schedule to date is rated as the weakest among Southland teams. It is the 12th weakest schedule, by Sagarin, among teams in all of the FCS leagues that participate in the playoffs. One of the 11 weaker schedules is that of a team in the NEC and the other 10 are of teams in the Pioneer league...

And BTW if the Sagarin system considered D-II games Sam Houston State's schedule would probably be rated even lower among FCS teams because their D-II game was Panhandle State. That's a 2-6 D-II team that's rated 130th in D-II by Massey. To put that into perspective: McNeese opponent Tarleton State is rated 49th in D-II by Massey.

I should say that that's all based on Sagarin and Massey ratings that had not been updated to take yesterday's games into account. But Sam Houston State played Texas Southern. Their average opponent's strength for games through October 22 is 34.25. Texas Southern went into yesterday's game rated lower than that at 23.40. So Sam Houston State's schedule strength rating should be even lower when the ratings are updated today.

[93henfan]

Why not? 7-4 with the gigantic playoff field they have now and the general slop that is FCs football, why not?

[JohnStOnge]

Why not? 7-4 with the gigantic playoff field they have now and the general slop that is FCs football, why not?

It is what it is. 7-4 teams make the playoffs all the time now. Heck, since Sam Houston State is the topic, I'll note that Sam Houston State made the playoffs at 7-4 in both 2013 and 2014. In 2013 they lost their last two games of the season by 13 (to Southeastern Louisiana) and 18 (Central Arkansas) points and got selected. In 2014 one of their 4 losses was an absolute pistol whipping at the hands of a D-II team. Now, it was the eventual D-II national champion. But, still, they made the playoffs at 7-4 with a blowout loss to a D-II.

So nowadays 7-4 with a 4 game winning streak to end the year including a road win over a highly regarded opponent should put a team in the hunt for an at large bid. Now, McNeese would have to actually DO that and that's a bit of a long shot. But at least they still have something to play for. They'll still have post season hopes when the game kicks off next week.

[kalm]

Why not? 7-4 with the gigantic playoff field they have now and the general slop that is FCs football, why not?

FCS has never been better. Upsets of of some P5's, G5 upsets by up and comers like CAU, and NCA&T, NFL talent in every conference, conference newcomers like SBU, Albany, and UND making some waves.

I'd still like to see a 32 team field with every team seeded (pipe dream). I like football.

McNeese would have the one quality win but otherwise a low SOS too compared to 4,5, and 6 teams from the Valley, CAA, BSC. You'd be a little closer to bubble teams like CAU, Samford and Wofford, but that 's a lot of teams to jump past for that last spot.

[JohnStOnge]

Why not? 7-4 with the gigantic playoff field they have now and the general slop that is FCs football, why not?

FCS has never been better. Upsets of of some P5's, G5 upsets by up and comers like CAU, and NCA&T, NFL talent in every conference, conference newcomers like SBU, Albany, and UND making some waves.

I'd still like to see a 32 team field with every team seeded (pipe dream). I like football.

McNeese would have the one quality win but otherwise a low SOS too compared to 4,5, and 6 teams from the Valley, CAA, BSC. You'd be a little closer to bubble teams like CAU, Samford and Wofford, but that 's a lot of teams to jump past for that last spot.

Oh sure it's no sure thing if they finish 7-4. It's not like they control their own destiny and what other teams around the country do is a factor. But the point is that they know that there's a possibility if they win their last two games and I think that's good. I think it's cool that in FCS a team where McNeese is season wise and its fans can still be looking at getting into a national championship post season tournament going into the final two games of the season. Keeps the interest alive.

Yes it's possible to over do it but I don't think 24 is over doing it. Add the two teams that go to the Celebration Bowl and you've still got just 21% of eligible teams in the FCS post season vs. 63% of FBS teams. And all of the FCS post season teams will be playing games meaningful to some kind of "national championship." The 24 playoff teams are in a NCAA National Championship tournament while the two Celebration Bowl teams look at that as the "Black Natonal Championship." In FBS only 4 of the 80 teams in post season will be playing games relevant to any kind of National Championship.

[JohnStOnge]

Ok updated Sagarin ratings are out and even though the Sam Houston schedule rating went down from 230 to 232 they now have a higher schedule strength rating that 12 playoff participating conference teams because now all 11 Pioneer League teams have weaker schedules and there's still one NEC team with a weaker schedule.

Another thing that happened is that McNeese is now rated higher than anybody Sam Houston State has played this year. So this will be the Bearkats' "toughest" opponent to date according to Sagarin. The Cowboys are rated 46th in FCS by that system. Also the "toughest" opponent to date for Sam Houston State by the Massey system. The Cowboys are rated 36th in FCS by that one.

Should be noted that Central Arkansas is rated higher than Sam Houston State in both systems. 9 vs. 10 in Sagarin and 4 vs. 8 in Massey. So the last game of the regular season is the first game Sam Houston State will play against what looks right now to be a "quality" opponent. That's because after McNeese the next game on Sam Houston State's schedule is 1-7 Northwestern State. And btw the Demons' one win was over Kentucky Wesleyan.

[93henfan]

Why not? 7-4 with the gigantic playoff field they have now and the general slop that is FCs football, why not?

FCS has never been better.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh and you delivered!

[Ivytalk]

FCS has never been better.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh and you delivered!

But Delaware has been better. Lots better.

[kalm]

Thanks, I needed a good laugh and you delivered!

But Delaware has been better. Lots better.

Purely coincidence.

[YoUDeeMan]

FCS is watered down cow crap these days.

Look at the CAA...Stony Brook sucks but they beat Big Fluffy leading North Dakota in a game between two blah teams. And don't say Stony's good because their record is good...if you watch them play it is obvious that they have little offensive talent, a predictable game plan, and just a decent, but not great D. THAT is a good team? No way.

UNH is not a good team, but they are making waves again in a cesspool because everyone is not good enough to beat them.

Montana is not a good team. C'mon, they only got 200 or so yards against UNI (another not good team with huge QB problems) and got slaughtered against EWU, a good team with a bad defense.

Disappointing year in FCS.

[93henfan]

I'm not saying NDSU isn't a great team (they are), but you don't win five in a row in the old FCS/I-AA. The competition was much, much better ten years ago. It is VERY watered down now, and you're delusional if you believe otherwise.

[BlackFalkin]

FCS is watered down cow crap these days.

Look at the CAA...Stony Brook sucks but they beat Big Fluffy leading North Dakota in a game between two blah teams. And don't say Stony's good because their record is good...if you watch them play it is obvious that they have little offensive talent, a predictable game plan, and just a decent, but not great D. THAT is a good team? No way.

UNH is not a good team, but they are making waves again in a cesspool because everyone is not good enough to beat them.

Montana is not a good team. C'mon, they only got 200 or so yards against UNI (another not good team with huge QB problems) and got slaughtered against EWU, a good team with a bad defense.

Disappointing year in FCS.

You sound upset.

[93henfan]

FCS is watered down cow crap these days.

Look at the CAA...Stony Brook sucks but they beat Big Fluffy leading North Dakota in a game between two blah teams. And don't say Stony's good because their record is good...if you watch them play it is obvious that they have little offensive talent, a predictable game plan, and just a decent, but not great D. THAT is a good team? No way.

UNH is not a good team, but they are making waves again in a cesspool because everyone is not good enough to beat them.

Montana is not a good team. C'mon, they only got 200 or so yards against UNI (another not good team with huge QB problems) and got slaughtered against EWU, a good team with a bad defense.

Disappointing year in FCS.

You sound upset.

Cluck is pretty much always upset, but that's beside the point.

[YoUDeeMan]

FCS is watered down cow crap these days.

Look at the CAA...Stony Brook sucks but they beat Big Fluffy leading North Dakota in a game between two blah teams. And don't say Stony's good because their record is good...if you watch them play it is obvious that they have little offensive talent, a predictable game plan, and just a decent, but not great D. THAT is a good team? No way.

UNH is not a good team, but they are making waves again in a cesspool because everyone is not good enough to beat them.

Montana is not a good team. C'mon, they only got 200 or so yards against UNI (another not good team with huge QB problems) and got slaughtered against EWU, a good team with a bad defense.

Disappointing year in FCS.

You sound upset.

You sound dumb and ignorant...but that's just your normal every day you.

[YoUDeeMan]

You sound upset.

Cluck is pretty much always upset, but that's beside the point.

Quite the opposite...this is a fun world with lots of opportunities to laugh.

[kalm]

FCS is watered down cow crap these days.

Look at the CAA...Stony Brook sucks but they beat Big Fluffy leading North Dakota in a game between two blah teams. And don't say Stony's good because their record is good...if you watch them play it is obvious that they have little offensive talent, a predictable game plan, and just a decent, but not great D. THAT is a good team? No way.

UNH is not a good team, but they are making waves again in a cesspool because everyone is not good enough to beat them.

Montana is not a good team. C'mon, they only got 200 or so yards against UNI (another not good team with huge QB problems) and got slaughtered against EWU, a good team with a bad defense.

Disappointing year in FCS.

Coincidentally...another Hen fan chimes in... Eyeore-esque.


If it had become watered down crap you'd see less FBS upsets and yet they seem to keep coming...and some against the P5. Even mediocre programs like Nichols State and UTM can sometimes be competitive.

High draft picks like Wentz and roll players like Brock Crowle (UM) and Deshawn Shead (PSU) in the game I'm watching (Hawks-Saints) getting more PT. Don't think that's diminished either.

FCS Conference TV contracts. More FCS on the tube than ever.

College Football Kickoff game.

Upstart programs like JSU, CSU, UCA, UND, Albany, Stony Brook starting to have some success and create their own tradition. Stealing the spotlight from traditional powers can be a tough pill to swallow for some.

It's ok boys...hopefully you'll find out all about it with the new coach.



(Maybe that warm bowl of cheerful change is good optimism, 89 can back me up.... )

[93henfan]

And the award for desperate use of emoticons goes to.... Mr. One Nut!

But seriously, anyone who's been watching I-AA/FCS for more than ten years can easily see how watered down it's become. When you have teams like Fordham, Dayton, Duquesne, San Diego, Sacred Heart, Butler, Wagner, etc in playoff fields, you know it's a joke.

[Mvemjsunpx]

High draft picks like Wentz and roll players like Brock Crowle (UM)

Spell much?


Seriously, though. 24 teams is the perfect number—no more, no less. Every conference that wants an auto-bid has one, and there's even room for more if the Ivy League ever realizes how stupid they are.

[Mvemjsunpx]

And the award for desperate use of emoticons goes to.... Mr. One Nut!

But seriously, anyone who's been watching I-AA/FCS for more than ten years can easily see how watered down it's become. When you have teams like Fordham, Dayton, Duquesne, San Diego, Sacred Heart, Butler, Wagner, etc in playoff fields, you know it's a joke.

Except those teams are usually knocked off in the preliminary round now. In the old system, those kinda teams were in the round of 16.

[JohnStOnge]

And the award for desperate use of emoticons goes to.... Mr. One Nut!

But seriously, anyone who's been watching I-AA/FCS for more than ten years can easily see how watered down it's become. When you have teams like Fordham, Dayton, Duquesne, San Diego, Sacred Heart, Butler, Wagner, etc in playoff fields, you know it's a joke.

I see the auto bids for those schools to be a good thing. I've written it before but I like the fact that every team that's in a participating conference controls its own destiny when the season starts.

BTW I enjoyed watching Western Illinois at Dayton last year. Ended up 24-7 but I think Dayton did have a chance in that game and represented its conference pretty well. Yes, I know Western Illinois controlled the final stats and obviously had more talent. But I thought Dayton was very scrappy and hung in there pretty well.

[kalm]

And the award for desperate use of emoticons goes to.... Mr. One Nut!

But seriously, anyone who's been watching I-AA/FCS for more than ten years can easily see how watered down it's become. When you have teams like Fordham, Dayton, Duquesne, San Diego, Sacred Heart, Butler, Wagner, etc in playoff fields, you know it's a joke.

Except those teams are usually knocked off in the preliminary round now. In the old system, those kinda teams were in the round of 16.

Exactly. It just means more football and inter-conference matchups which is a great thing...if you like football. The elite 16 teams are still there and the seeds get a week of rest which makes the playoffs even better.

[JohnStOnge]

Except those teams are usually knocked off in the preliminary round now. In the old system, those kinda teams were in the round of 16.

Exactly. It just means more football and inter-conference matchups which is a great thing...if you like football. The elite 16 teams are still there and the seeds get a week of rest which makes the playoffs even better.

The Patriot league has won some playoff games and even had a team reach the championship game. Got blown out there but reached it. The NEC has won a playoff game. I think it's just a matter of time before the Pioneer wins one. When stuff like that happens it just makes the tournament more interesting.

Main thing is that if a team is categorized as FCS and is in a league that participates it controls its own destiny. If it wins its conference it's in. Doesn't matter what anybody thinks. I think that's good.

[YoUDeeMan]

C'mon, folks...Stony Brook isn't a good team, no matter how you try to spin it. Hey, it would make UD look better if SB was a good team...but real football folks know that isn't true. Stony Brook isn't going to bother anyone...except for a first place Big Fluffy team.

And all of this crap about FCS teams beating FBS teams...no one gives a crap if an FCS team beats a bottom dweller of the effing P5. To say that all P5 teams are worthy of anyone thinking they are good is absurd. Some Gwhatever teams would crush the bottom of the P5, but people cream their pants when they give a really bad P5 team a run. Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh, all conference teams must be good if they are in a P5 conference.

Foolish talk from some people that should know better. I'd feel a lot better if UD was losing because teams were getting better...but that isn't the case. Despite our interim coach calling Towson a great team, they are not a fvcking great team. They are 1-7 and they suck. But, a 6-15, 44 yard performance from our turd of a QB was good enough to beat that great team.

Hey, maybe you guys should meet our interim coach...he, like some of you, thinks FCS is full of great teams.

[JohnStOnge]

I'm not saying NDSU isn't a great team (they are), but you don't win five in a row in the old FCS/I-AA. The competition was much, much better ten years ago. It is VERY watered down now, and you're delusional if you believe otherwise.

I dunno. Look at what North Dakota State has done against I-A/FBS. Since they moved into I-AA/FCS from D-II they are, at least by what I see, 9-3 against I-A/FBS teams. They are 6-2 against teams from programs now in the Big 5 conferences. During their 5 national titles run they've been 4-0 against FBS and 3-0 against Big 5 program teams. Add to that the win over Iowa this year. No other I-AA/FCS program has anything like that kind of performance against I-A/FBS. Georgia Southern won 6 I-AA national titles but while they were doing it they never won a game against a I-A/FCS until that last game as a FCS against Florida. Youngstown State beat some MAC teams during their 1990s heyday but they weren't like North Dakota State is now. Appalachian State had that huge win over Michigan but during it's three consecutive year run it was 1-3 against I-A teams. North Dakota State has clearly been a different kind of animal in the history of I-AA/FCS.

[kalm]

C'mon, folks...Stony Brook isn't a good team, no matter how you try to spin it. Hey, it would make UD look better if SB was a good team...but real football folks know that isn't true. Stony Brook isn't going to bother anyone...except for a first place Big Fluffy team.

And all of this crap about FCS teams beating FBS teams...no one gives a crap if an FCS team beats a bottom dweller of the effing P5. To say that all P5 teams are worthy of anyone thinking they are good is absurd. Some Gwhatever teams would crush the bottom of the P5, but people cream their pants when they give a really bad P5 team a run. Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh, all conference teams must be good if they are in a P5 conference.

Foolish talk from some people that should know better. I'd feel a lot better if UD was losing because teams were getting better...but that isn't the case. Despite our interim coach calling Towson a great team, they are not a fvcking great team. They are 1-7 and they suck. But, a 6-15, 44 yard performance from our turd of a QB was good enough to beat that great team.

Hey, maybe you guys should meet our interim coach...he, like some of you, thinks FCS is full of great teams.

Ahem...

Postby 93henfan » Sun Oct 30, 2016 1:22 pm

And the award for desperate use of emoticons goes to.... Mr. One Nut!

Cluck...the point about FBS wins is you haven't seen a drop off over the past decade. You can crunch the numbers if you'd like but christ...even Sac State won back to back games against the Pac 12 in 2011 and 2012. EWU is 2-2 in its last 4. McNeese boat raced South Florida a couple of years ago and IIRC someone else did the same thing to San Diego State that same year. And see JSO's riff on it above. If FCS was now watered down crap I'm not sure these things would be happening. On the contrary it seems more like the talent gap has closed.

Now that PL and NEC are starting to fully fund schollies, it's going to get even worse for you. Buckle up my friend...