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2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 1)

I compiled a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins this season. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC teams are listed since their second place team could still theoretically receive a playoff berth; only Alcorn State from the SWAC is listed, since all other teams are eliminated, or have schedule conflicts.

Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins; those listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (5-2) must go 2-2
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 2-1
Weber State (5-2) must go 3-1
Southern Utah (5-2) must go 2-2
Montana (5-2) must go 2-2
Sacramento State (4-3) must go 3-1
Montana State (3-4) must go 4-0
Idaho State (4-4) must go 3-0
UC Davis (3-4) must go 4-0

Northern Colorado (2-4) eliminated
North Dakota (2-6) eliminated
Portland State (0-7) eliminated
Cal Poly (0-7) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1) must go 2-2
Monmouth (6-1) must go 1-3
Charleston Southern (4-3) must go 4-0

Presbyterian (3-4) eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-5) eliminated
Liberty (3-4) ineligible

Colonial
*James Madison (7-0)
Elon (6-1) must go 1-3
Stony Brook (5-2) must go 2-2
New Hampshire (5-2) must go 2-2
Delaware (5-2) must go 2-2
Richmond (4-3) must go 3-1
Villanova (4-3) must go 3-1
Maine (3-3) must go 4-0
Albany (3-4) must go 4-0

Towson (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-5) eliminated
Rhode Island (1-6) eliminated

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
Hampton (5-2) must go 3-1
NC Central (5-2) must go 3-1
Howard (4-3) must go 4-0
Norfolk State 3-4 must go 4-0
Bethune-Cookman (3-4) must go 4-0

Morgan State (1-6) eliminated
SC State (2-5) eliminated
Florida A&M (2-6) eliminated
Delaware State (1-6) eliminated
Savannah State (0-7) eliminated

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (7-0)
South Dakota (6-1) must go 1-3
Illinois State (5-2) must go 2-2
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 3-1
South Dakota State (5-2) must go 2-2
Western Illinois (5-2) must go 2-2
Southern Illinois (4-3) must go 3-1
Youngstown State (3-4) must go 4-0

Missouri State (1-6) eliminated
Indiana State (0-7) eliminated

Northeast
Duquesne (6-1) must go 2-2
CCSU (5-3) must go 3-0
Saint Francis (4-3) must go 4-0
Sacred Heart (3-4) must go 4-0

Robert Morris (2-5) eliminated
Bryant (2-5) eliminated
Wagner (2-5) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (6-1) must go 1-3
Austin Peay (5-3) must go 2-2
Eastern Illinois (5-3) must go 2-1
Tennessee State (4-3) must go 3-1

SE Missouri State (2-5) eliminated
Eastern Kentucky (2-5) eliminated
Murray State (2-5) eliminated
UT Martin (3-4) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-7) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (4-4) must go 3-0
Bucknell (4-3) must go 3-1

Lehigh (2-5) eliminated
Lafayette (2-6) eliminated
Fordham (2-6) eliminated
Holy Cross (2-6) eliminated
Georgetown (1-6) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2) must go 3-1
Campbell (5-3) must go 3-0
Drake (4-3) must go 4-0

Butler (5-3) eliminated
Jacksonville (4-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (3-4) eliminated
Marist (3-5) eliminated
Morehead State (3-5) eliminated
Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Stetson (2-6) eliminated
Davidson (2-5) eliminated

Southern
Wofford (6-1) must go 1-4
Western Carolina (6-2) must go 1-3
Furman (5-3) must go 2-1
Samford (5-2) must go 3-1
Mercer (4-4) must go 3-0
The Citadel (4-3) must go 4-0

ETSU (3-4) eliminated
Chattanooga (1-7) eliminated
VMI (0-8) eliminated

Southland
Central Arkansas (6-1) must go 1-3
SE Louisiana (5-3) must go 2-1
McNeese (6-1) must go 1-3
Sam Houston State (6-1) must go 1-3
Nicholls (5-2) must go 2-2

Stephen F Austin (3-5) eliminated
Abilene (2-6) eliminated
Incarnate Word (1-6) eliminated
Northwestern State (1-6) eliminated
Houston Baptist (1-6) eliminated
Lamar (1-6) eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (5-3) must go 3-0

McNeese has to go 2-2 to make 7 D-1 wins because one of their 6 wins if over a D-II.

Always liked this thread...

Nice work, GB.

Here are the remaining schedules for the Big Sky contenders. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where you end up with a 9-2, three 8-3 teams, and a pair of 7-4's with high SoS's and resume's equal to if not better than some 7-4 CAA and SoCon teams.

NAU 5-2 Sac, @ UM, MSU, @ SUU
SUU 5-2 @ UNC, UND, @ UCD, NAU
EWU 5-3 Weber, @ UND, PSU
SAC 4-3 @ NAU, UNC, @ CP, Davis
UM 5-2 @ Weber, NAU, UNC, @ MSU
Weber 5-2 Montana, @ EWU, @ PSU, ISU
MSU 3-4 ISU, Kennesaw, @ NAU, UM
Davis 3-4 CP, @ ISU, SUU, @ SAC
ISU 4-4 @ MSU, Davis, @ Weber

AZGrizFan wrote:Always liked this thread...

Me too, but this means we need to start the too early predictions for the field.

89Hen wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:Always liked this thread...

Me too, but this means we need to start the too early predictions for the field.

BTW, Idaho State is 3-4, as one of their wins is a D-II Western Oregon
Similarly, Weber is 4-2, as one of their wins is against University of Montana-Western

89Hen wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:Always liked this thread...

Me too, but this means we need to start the too early predictions for the field.

Never too early.

Hens should be favored in their next 3 and maybe a pick'em @ Nova. Hell, you're in line for a seed!

kalm wrote:

89Hen wrote: Me too, but this means we need to start the too early predictions for the field.

Never too early.

Hens should be favored in their next 3 and maybe a pick'em @ Nova. Hell, you're in line for a seed!

Shame on you trying to put the hex on the Hens.

I know it's a little early, but I predict that JMU will make the playoffs. Heck, they might even get a seed

89Hen wrote:

kalm wrote:
Never too early.

Hens should be favored in their next 3 and maybe a pick'em @ Nova. Hell, you're in line for a seed!

Shame on you trying to put the hex on the Hens.

I forgot that it was all klam's fault.

bandl wrote:I know it's a little early, but I predict that JMU will make the playoffs. Heck, they might even get a seed

Their plane could also Marshall over some forest between Virginia and Texas. Never go all in.

93henfan wrote:

bandl wrote:I know it's a little early, but I predict that JMU will make the playoffs. Heck, they might even get a seed

Their plane could also Marshall over some forest between Virginia and Texas. Never go all in.

They'd still be in the playoffs though, you dolt

grizband wrote:2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 1)

I compiled a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins this season. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC teams are listed since their second place team could still theoretically receive a playoff berth; only Alcorn State from the SWAC is listed, since all other teams are eliminated, or have schedule conflicts.

Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins; those listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (5-2) must go 2-2
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 2-1
Weber State (5-2) must go 3-1
Southern Utah (5-2) must go 2-2
Montana (5-2) must go 2-2
Sacramento State (4-3) must go 3-1
Montana State (3-4) must go 4-0
Idaho State (4-4) must go 3-0
UC Davis (3-4) must go 4-0

Northern Colorado (2-4) eliminated
North Dakota (2-6) eliminated
Portland State (0-7) eliminated
Cal Poly (0-7) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1) must go 2-2
Monmouth (6-1) must go 1-3
Charleston Southern (4-3) must go 4-0

Presbyterian (3-4) eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-5) eliminated
Liberty (3-4) ineligible

Colonial
*James Madison (7-0)
Elon (6-1) must go 1-3
Stony Brook (5-2) must go 2-2
New Hampshire (5-2) must go 2-2
Delaware (5-2) must go 2-2
Richmond (4-3) must go 3-1
Villanova (4-3) must go 3-1
Maine (3-3) must go 4-0
Albany (3-4) must go 4-0

Towson (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-5) eliminated
Rhode Island (1-6) eliminated

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
Hampton (5-2) must go 3-1
NC Central (5-2) must go 3-1
Howard (4-3) must go 4-0
Norfolk State 3-4 must go 4-0
Bethune-Cookman (3-4) must go 4-0

Morgan State (1-6) eliminated
SC State (2-5) eliminated
Florida A&M (2-6) eliminated
Delaware State (1-6) eliminated
Savannah State (0-7) eliminated

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (7-0)
South Dakota (6-1) must go 1-3
Illinois State (5-2) must go 2-2
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 3-1
South Dakota State (5-2) must go 2-2
Western Illinois (5-2) must go 2-2
Southern Illinois (4-3) must go 3-1
Youngstown State (3-4) must go 4-0

Missouri State (1-6) eliminated
Indiana State (0-7) eliminated

Northeast
Duquesne (6-1) must go 2-2
CCSU (5-3) must go 3-0
Saint Francis (4-3) must go 4-0
Sacred Heart (3-4) must go 4-0

Robert Morris (2-5) eliminated
Bryant (2-5) eliminated
Wagner (2-5) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (6-1) must go 1-3
Austin Peay (5-3) must go 2-2
Eastern Illinois (5-3) must go 2-1
Tennessee State (4-3) must go 3-1

SE Missouri State (2-5) eliminated
Eastern Kentucky (2-5) eliminated
Murray State (2-5) eliminated
UT Martin (3-4) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-7) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (4-4) must go 3-0
Bucknell (4-3) must go 3-1

Lehigh (2-5) eliminated
Lafayette (2-6) eliminated
Fordham (2-6) eliminated
Holy Cross (2-6) eliminated
Georgetown (1-6) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2) must go 3-1
Campbell (5-3) must go 3-0
Drake (4-3) must go 4-0

Butler (5-3) eliminated
Jacksonville (4-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (3-4) eliminated
Marist (3-5) eliminated
Morehead State (3-5) eliminated
Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Stetson (2-6) eliminated
Davidson (2-5) eliminated

Southern
Wofford (6-1) must go 1-4
Western Carolina (6-2) must go 1-3
Furman (5-3) must go 2-1
Samford (5-2) must go 3-1
Mercer (4-4) must go 3-0
The Citadel (4-3) must go 4-0

ETSU (3-4) eliminated
Chattanooga (1-7) eliminated
VMI (0-8) eliminated

Southland
Central Arkansas (6-1) must go 1-3
SE Louisiana (5-3) must go 2-1
McNeese (6-1) must go 1-3
Sam Houston State (6-1) must go 1-3
Nicholls (5-2) must go 2-2

Stephen F Austin (3-5) eliminated
Abilene (2-6) eliminated
Incarnate Word (1-6) eliminated
Northwestern State (1-6) eliminated
Houston Baptist (1-6) eliminated
Lamar (1-6) eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (5-3) must go 3-0

Norfolk St knocked NCCU last week today they have a chance to defeat A&T and it would be the second time they removed a team from the top 25.

dal4018 wrote:

grizband wrote:2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 1)

I compiled a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins this season. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC teams are listed since their second place team could still theoretically receive a playoff berth; only Alcorn State from the SWAC is listed, since all other teams are eliminated, or have schedule conflicts.

Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins; those listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (5-2) must go 2-2
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 2-1
Weber State (5-2) must go 3-1
Southern Utah (5-2) must go 2-2
Montana (5-2) must go 2-2
Sacramento State (4-3) must go 3-1
Montana State (3-4) must go 4-0
Idaho State (4-4) must go 3-0
UC Davis (3-4) must go 4-0

Northern Colorado (2-4) eliminated
North Dakota (2-6) eliminated
Portland State (0-7) eliminated
Cal Poly (0-7) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1) must go 2-2
Monmouth (6-1) must go 1-3
Charleston Southern (4-3) must go 4-0

Presbyterian (3-4) eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-5) eliminated
Liberty (3-4) ineligible

Colonial
*James Madison (7-0)
Elon (6-1) must go 1-3
Stony Brook (5-2) must go 2-2
New Hampshire (5-2) must go 2-2
Delaware (5-2) must go 2-2
Richmond (4-3) must go 3-1
Villanova (4-3) must go 3-1
Maine (3-3) must go 4-0
Albany (3-4) must go 4-0

Towson (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-5) eliminated
Rhode Island (1-6) eliminated

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
Hampton (5-2) must go 3-1
NC Central (5-2) must go 3-1
Howard (4-3) must go 4-0
Norfolk State 3-4 must go 4-0
Bethune-Cookman (3-4) must go 4-0

Morgan State (1-6) eliminated
SC State (2-5) eliminated
Florida A&M (2-6) eliminated
Delaware State (1-6) eliminated
Savannah State (0-7) eliminated

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (7-0)
South Dakota (6-1) must go 1-3
Illinois State (5-2) must go 2-2
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 3-1
South Dakota State (5-2) must go 2-2
Western Illinois (5-2) must go 2-2
Southern Illinois (4-3) must go 3-1
Youngstown State (3-4) must go 4-0

Missouri State (1-6) eliminated
Indiana State (0-7) eliminated

Northeast
Duquesne (6-1) must go 2-2
CCSU (5-3) must go 3-0
Saint Francis (4-3) must go 4-0
Sacred Heart (3-4) must go 4-0

Robert Morris (2-5) eliminated
Bryant (2-5) eliminated
Wagner (2-5) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (6-1) must go 1-3
Austin Peay (5-3) must go 2-2
Eastern Illinois (5-3) must go 2-1
Tennessee State (4-3) must go 3-1

SE Missouri State (2-5) eliminated
Eastern Kentucky (2-5) eliminated
Murray State (2-5) eliminated
UT Martin (3-4) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-7) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (4-4) must go 3-0
Bucknell (4-3) must go 3-1

Lehigh (2-5) eliminated
Lafayette (2-6) eliminated
Fordham (2-6) eliminated
Holy Cross (2-6) eliminated
Georgetown (1-6) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2) must go 3-1
Campbell (5-3) must go 3-0
Drake (4-3) must go 4-0

Butler (5-3) eliminated
Jacksonville (4-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (3-4) eliminated
Marist (3-5) eliminated
Morehead State (3-5) eliminated
Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Stetson (2-6) eliminated
Davidson (2-5) eliminated

Southern
Wofford (6-1) must go 1-4
Western Carolina (6-2) must go 1-3
Furman (5-3) must go 2-1
Samford (5-2) must go 3-1
Mercer (4-4) must go 3-0
The Citadel (4-3) must go 4-0

ETSU (3-4) eliminated
Chattanooga (1-7) eliminated
VMI (0-8) eliminated

Southland
Central Arkansas (6-1) must go 1-3
SE Louisiana (5-3) must go 2-1
McNeese (6-1) must go 1-3
Sam Houston State (6-1) must go 1-3
Nicholls (5-2) must go 2-2

Stephen F Austin (3-5) eliminated
Abilene (2-6) eliminated
Incarnate Word (1-6) eliminated
Northwestern State (1-6) eliminated
Houston Baptist (1-6) eliminated
Lamar (1-6) eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (5-3) must go 3-0

Norfolk St knocked NCCU last week today they have a chance to defeat A&T and it would be the second time they removed a team from the top 25.

Neither belongs in the top 25.

89Hen wrote:

89Hen wrote: Shame on you trying to put the hex on the Hens.

I forgot that it was all klam's fault.

At 6-2 and with a solid SoS, Weber State is also in the running for a seed if they win out.

Given that we lost to NAU, by grizband's reckoning, we now have to win out to get in. That would put us at 7-4. Even with our expando-playoffs, though, I don't think we have the SOS to get us in. There will be WAY too many 7-4 (or maybe even a 6-5 team that had an impressive FBS bodybag game) to leapfrog us.

I hope I'm wrong in that assessment, though. I would LOVE to see a Hornet playoff game....

kalm wrote:

89Hen wrote: I forgot that it was all klam's fault.

At 6-2 and with a solid SoS, Weber State is also in the running for a seed if they win out.

Glad your attempt to jinx Weber didn't come true.

kalm wrote:

89Hen wrote: I forgot that it was all klam's fault.

At 6-2 and with a solid SoS, Weber State is also in the running for a seed if they win out.

89Hen wrote:

kalm wrote:
At 6-2 and with a solid SoS, Weber State is also in the running for a seed if they win out.

I failed..

So with some of the results this weekend, it's becoming very muddied and it's looking more and more like somebody is going to get Woofed this year. The other big issue is that a LOT of the bubble teams have games left in which they should be favored. Especially some of the team the committee would love to have in there: EWU, Montana, UNI, McNeese, Delaware, Furman... I'm calling it right now, we will have the biggest Woofed team in quite a few years.

Big Sky
Southern Utah 7-2
Weber State 7-2
Northern Arizona 6-3
Eastern Washington 5-4
Montana 6-3

Big South
Kennesaw State 8-1
Monmouth 8-1

CAA
James Madison 9-0
Elon 8-1
Stony Brook 7-2
Delaware 6-3
New Hampshire 6-3

MEAC
North Carolina A&T 9-0
North Carolina Central 7-2

MVFC
North Dakota State 8-1
Northern Iowa 5-4
Illinois State 6-3
South Dakota 7-2
South Dakota State 7-2
Western Illinois 6-3

NEC
Duquesne 7-2
Central Connecticut 6-3

OVC
Jacksonville State 8-1

Patriot
Champion only, too early to call

Pioneer
San Diego 7-2

Southern
Wofford 8-1
Furman 6-3
Western Carolina 7-3
Samford 6-3

Southland
Central Arkansas 8-1
Sam Houston State 8-1
Nicholls 7-2
McNeese 7-2


That's 33 teams but NEC and Big South are going to be 1 bid conferences, so really only 31. But that's a lot of teams fighting for those last spots. I honestly can't get down to 24 teams based on how I'm seeing the schedules play out.

So I figure I'll put this here, too, but I did some analysis on the teams that have a legit shot at the playoffs.

I'm assuming going forward that every team that's *supposed* to win does. (Close games go to the home team)

I know this probably won't be how it works out, but it's the "most likely" scenario.

Edit: Forgot about the "Celebration Bowl" lol

Here are your auto bids:
Big Sky: Southern Utah (9-2)
Big South: Kennesaw St. (10-1)
CAA: JMU (11-0)
MVFC: NDSU (10-1)
NEC: Duquesne (9-2)
OVC: Jax St. (10-1)
Patriot: Colgate (7-4) (But honestly, who the hell knows...)
Pioneer: San Diego (9-2)
Southern: Wofford (9-2)
Southland: Central Arkansas (10-1)

So now we have 13 spots left. If it plays out this way, these teams are pretty much a lock:

Big Sky:
Weber State (9-2)

CAA:
Elon (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2)

MVFC:
South Dakota (8-3)
SDSU (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)

Southland:
SHSU (10-1)
Nicholls St (9-2)
McNeese St (9-2)

So that leaves only 5 spots for the following teams to fight over:

NAU (7-4)
EWU (7-4)
Montana (8-3)
North Carolina Central (8-3)
Monmouth (9-2)
Delaware (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
Western Carolina (8-4)
Samford (8-3)

uofmman1122 wrote:So I figure I'll put this here, too, but I did some analysis on the teams that have a legit shot at the playoffs.

I'm assuming going forward that every team that's *supposed* to win does. (Close games go to the home team)

I know this probably won't be how it works out, but it's the "most likely" scenario.

Edit: Forgot about the "Celebration Bowl" lol

Here are your auto bids:
Big Sky: Southern Utah (9-2)
Big South: Kennesaw St. (10-1)
CAA: JMU (11-0)
MVFC: NDSU (10-1)
NEC: Duquesne (9-2)
OVC: Jax St. (10-1)
Patriot: Colgate (7-4) (But honestly, who the hell knows...)
Pioneer: San Diego (9-2)
Southern: Wofford (9-2)
Southland: Central Arkansas (10-1)

So now we have 13 spots left. If it plays out this way, these teams are pretty much a lock:

Big Sky:
Weber State (9-2)

CAA:
Elon (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2)

MVFC:
South Dakota (8-3)
SDSU (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)

Southland:
SHSU (10-1)
Nicholls St (9-2)
McNeese St (9-2)

So that leaves only 5 spots for the following teams to fight over:

NAU (7-4)
EWU (7-4)
Montana (8-3)
North Carolina Central (8-3)
Monmouth (9-2)
Delaware (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
Western Carolina (8-4)
Samford (8-3)

MVFC:
NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4) (finishes season with 3 straight losses, 1-3 vs playoff teams, I-A win).

CAA:
-JMU (11-0) (AQ)
-SBU (9-2)
-UNH (8-3) (Think they upset Elon. If they don't, think they won't get in at 7-4).
-UD (8-3)
-Elon (8-3) (I think they are upset by UNH).

Big Sky:
-SUU (9-2) (AQ)
-Weber State (9-2)
-Montana (8-3)

So-Con
-Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
-Furman/Samford winner (8-3)
-WCU (8-4) (2 I-A losses)

Southland:
-Central Arkansas (10-1) (AQ)
-SHSU (10-1, 9-1 vs Div 1)
-McNeese (9-2)

OVC:
-Jax St. (10-1) (AQ)

Big South:
-Kennesaw/Monmouth winner (10-1) (AQ)

NEC:
-Duquesne (9-2) (AQ)

Patriot:
-Colgate (7-4) or Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

Pioneer:
-San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Misses the cut:
-Austin Peay (8-4, but 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so in committee's eyes (don't count I-A losses) would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.
-NAU (7-4)
-EWU (7-4)
-Furman/Samford loser (7-4) (If Samford they would be 6-4 vs Div I).
-Nichols (8-3) (Think they lose one of last 2).
-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser (If Kennesaw would be 8-2 vs Div I).

-IF UNH doesn't upset Elon, or beat Albany last game, they don't get in at 7-4, despite a 13 year playoff streak and their AD being on the selection committee, & one of the 'Misses the Cut' teams does.
-If NAU upsets SUU, then NAU at 8-3 would get in as a 4th Big Sky, and SD probably wouldn't as a 5th MVFC.
-IF Nichols doesn't lose one of their last 2, they get in at 9-2, and either SD or McNeese (lost to Nichols), doesn't.
-IF NC A&T loses to UNC Central, then NC Central goes to the Celebration Bowl and NC A&T at 10-1 would get an At Large, and SD wouldn't.

If NAU beats SUU, the Big Sky will potentially have a 9-2 Weber and 3 8-3 teams (UM, NAU, SUU)...in that scenario I think one of USD or UNI or UNH get left out.

I'd love to hear your reasoning why NAU and EWU get passed over for 7-4 UNH. Unless UNH beats Elon, their best win will be against currently 4-4 Maine.