Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:16 am

kalm wrote:I didn't bring the computers into this discussion and I view them strictly as a resource for SoS. But since 93 chose them as one of his main data points other than eyeballs...

FTR, I'm pretty sure it was our resident statistician, JSO, that brought in the computers. You know, the guy who for a dozen years wouldn't put his money where his mouth was.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:02 am

89Hen wrote:
kalm wrote:I didn't bring the computers into this discussion and I view them strictly as a resource for SoS. But since 93 chose them as one of his main data points other than eyeballs...

FTR, I'm pretty sure it was our resident statistician, JSO, that brought in the computers. You know, the guy who for a dozen years wouldn't put his money where his mouth was.


Let me check and see if it wasn’t 93...nope.


He also chose to use just one year this decade vs what I’m guessing were some high quality years from the 2000’s.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:36 am

Was there a post prior to this one?...

JohnStOnge wrote:I might do more of this kind of thing later but for now just a quick check.

The earliest set of Sagarin ratings I can get to is for 1998. In the context of the overall Division I final rankings then the top 5 I-AA teams were rated 64, 65, 66, 79, and 88.

As of now in 2018 the top 5 FCS (I-AA) teams are rated 24, 58, 73, 79, and 90.

Obviously North Dakota State is the 24. But, at least according to Sagarin, I'm not seeing a big difference between 2 through 5 in 1998 and 2 through 5 in 2018 in terms of how the top I-AA/FCS teams rank in the overall Division I context.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Chizzang » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:45 am

89Hen wrote:Was there a post prior to this one?...

JohnStOnge wrote:I might do more of this kind of thing later but for now just a quick check.

The earliest set of Sagarin ratings I can get to is for 1998. In the context of the overall Division I final rankings then the top 5 I-AA teams were rated 64, 65, 66, 79, and 88.

As of now in 2018 the top 5 FCS (I-AA) teams are rated 24, 58, 73, 79, and 90.

Obviously North Dakota State is the 24. But, at least according to Sagarin, I'm not seeing a big difference between 2 through 5 in 1998 and 2 through 5 in 2018 in terms of how the top I-AA/FCS teams rank in the overall Division I context.


Nice work John,
Kinda puts this whole thread in perspective...

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:47 am

It's actually kind of funny that you guys are accusing us of not liking new teams. I liked when we had 6 different teams in 6 years win the title from 2000-05. I've always thought that as you go down in talent, teams seem to repeat more often. IOW, when the talent is up overall for a division, you have more teams winning championships.

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:29 pm

This decade, we might have to look up the different runner-ups in FCS also. 8 different in 9 years. 2000-2010 had 7 dfferent in 10 years.

2018 EWU or NDSU
2017 JMU
2016 YSU
2015 JSU
2014 ISUR
2013 Towson
2012 SHSU
2011 SHSU
2010 Delaware
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:33 pm

89Hen wrote:Was there a post prior to this one?...

JohnStOnge wrote:I might do more of this kind of thing later but for now just a quick check.

The earliest set of Sagarin ratings I can get to is for 1998. In the context of the overall Division I final rankings then the top 5 I-AA teams were rated 64, 65, 66, 79, and 88.

As of now in 2018 the top 5 FCS (I-AA) teams are rated 24, 58, 73, 79, and 90.

Obviously North Dakota State is the 24. But, at least according to Sagarin, I'm not seeing a big difference between 2 through 5 in 1998 and 2 through 5 in 2018 in terms of how the top I-AA/FCS teams rank in the overall Division I context.


You mean JSO's from 12/4 on page 9?
Ummm....yeah like this one by 93hen from 11/9 on page 3:

No, it's more than perspective.

Here are the final rankings in D1 of the top 5 FCS/I-AA teams by year in Sagarin:

2018: 31, 58, 80, 83, 85 (avg 67.4)

Last 5 years of last decade
2010: 52, 57, 58, 72, 75 (62.8)
2009: 30, 49, 57, 60, 76 (54.4)
2008: 41, 45, 62, 63, 69 (56.0)
2007: 44, 62, 67, 71, 73 (63.4)
2006: 53, 57, 59, 70, 71 (62.0)

So even with NDSU figured in, current FCS is decidedly weaker. Take away NDSU and it's WAY weaker.


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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:36 pm

Gil Dobie wrote:This decade, we might have to look up the different runner-ups in FCS also. 8 different in 9 years. 2000-2010 had 7 dfferent in 10 years.

2018 EWU or NDSU
2017 JMU
2016 YSU
2015 JSU
2014 ISUR
2013 Towson
2012 SHSU
2011 SHSU
2010 Delaware


The 2000's were basically just Montana and the CAA. According to 89hen, the FCS must have sucked back then. :rofl:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:43 pm

Gil Dobie wrote:This decade, we might have to look up the different runner-ups in FCS also. 8 different in 9 years. 2000-2010 had 7 dfferent in 10 years.

2018 EWU or NDSU
2017 JMU
2016 YSU
2015 JSU
2014 ISUR
2013 Towson
2012 SHSU
2011 SHSU
2010 Delaware

So how many different teams in the finals for each decade? Sounding very lopsided towards 2000-10.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:48 pm

kalm wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:This decade, we might have to look up the different runner-ups in FCS also. 8 different in 9 years. 2000-2010 had 7 dfferent in 10 years.

2018 EWU or NDSU
2017 JMU
2016 YSU
2015 JSU
2014 ISUR
2013 Towson
2012 SHSU
2011 SHSU
2010 Delaware


The 2000's were basically just Montana and the CAA. According to 89hen, the FCS must have sucked back then. :rofl:

Maybe you should do your own research kalm.


13 different finalists 2000-09
Villanova
Montana
Richmond
Appalachian State
Delaware
Massachusetts
UNI
James Madison
Colgate
Western Kentucky
McNeese State
Furman
Georgia Southern

9 different finalists 2010-18
North Dakota State
Eastern Washington
James Madison
Youngstown State
Jacksonville State
Illinois State
Towson
Sam Houston State
Delaware
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:55 pm

kalm wrote:You mean JSO's from 12/4 on page 9?
Ummm....yeah like this one by 93hen from 11/9 on page 3:

That would be earlier. :thumb:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:13 pm

89Hen wrote:
kalm wrote:
The 2000's were basically just Montana and the CAA. According to 89hen, the FCS must have sucked back then. :rofl:

Maybe you should do your own research kalm.


13 different finalists 2000-09
Villanova
Montana
Richmond
Appalachian State
Delaware
Massachusetts
UNI
James Madison
Colgate
Western Kentucky
McNeese State
Furman
Georgia Southern

9 different finalists 2010-18
North Dakota State
Eastern Washington
James Madison
Youngstown State
Jacksonville State
Illinois State
Towson
Sam Houston State
Delaware


So next year the number could change to 10 or 11 different teams making the finals. Not a big change from 13 over a 10 year span. I'm just not seeing FCS overall as down, except ECB football, and even then, the JMU team this decade was far better than the JMU team of last decade.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:25 pm

Gil Dobie wrote:So next year the number could change to 10 or 11 different teams making the finals. Not a big change from 13 over a 10 year span. I'm just not seeing FCS overall as down, except ECB football, and even then, the JMU team this decade was far better than the JMU team of last decade.

Could being the operative word. 10 vs 13 out of 20 is a big difference. 10 vs 13 out of 100 is not.

Let's put it another way.

Different champions

2000-09 = 8
2010-18 = 3

Significant
Last edited by 89Hen on Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:27 pm

89Hen wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:So next year the number could change to 10 or 11 different teams making the finals. Not a big change from 13 over a 10 year span. I'm just not seeing FCS overall as down, except ECB football, and even then, the JMU team this decade was far better than the JMU team of last decade.

Could being the operative word. 10 vs 13 out of 20 is a big difference. 10 vs 13 out of 100 is not.


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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 93henfan » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:06 pm

89 just ripping the tits off the western ladyboys.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Silenoz » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:14 pm

Numbers, shmumbers

Just tell me which group is routinely losing to one team by like 50 points every game

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Re: RE: Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby UNI88 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:05 pm

93henfan wrote:89 just ripping the tits off the western ladyboys.
Is 89's obsession with moobs a new thing?

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:56 pm

Silenoz wrote:Numbers, shmumbers

Just tell me which group is routinely losing to one team by like 50 points every game


Is that 3+ scores?
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:03 pm

93henfan wrote:89 just ripping the tits off the western ladyboys.


89hen taking over for Baldy with 93 on his back....


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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:05 pm

89Hen wrote:
kalm wrote:
The 2000's were basically just Montana and the CAA. According to 89hen, the FCS must have sucked back then. :rofl:

Maybe you should do your own research kalm.


13 different finalists 2000-09
Villanova
Montana
Richmond
Appalachian State
Delaware
Massachusetts
UNI
James Madison
Colgate
Western Kentucky
McNeese State
Furman
Georgia Southern

9 different finalists 2010-18
North Dakota State
Eastern Washington
James Madison
Youngstown State
Jacksonville State
Illinois State
Towson
Sam Houston State
Delaware


Again...your opinion but hardly proof. You can have a terrific dynasty without the rest of the subdivision regressing...which has clearly been the case.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:20 pm

89Hen wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:So next year the number could change to 10 or 11 different teams making the finals. Not a big change from 13 over a 10 year span. I'm just not seeing FCS overall as down, except ECB football, and even then, the JMU team this decade was far better than the JMU team of last decade.

Could being the operative word. 10 vs 13 out of 20 is a big difference. 10 vs 13 out of 100 is not.

Let's put it another way.

Different champions

2000-09 = 8
2010-18 = 3

Significant


As significant as GSU AND YSU being in 14 finals in a 16 year time span? GSU starts a football program, and just like that they dominate FCS for 16 years.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Grizalltheway » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:13 am

This puppy might go longer than the elimination game threads. :lol:

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:32 am

Gil Dobie wrote:As significant as GSU AND YSU being in 14 finals in a 16 year time span? GSU starts a football program, and just like that they dominate FCS for 16 years.

You mean back when I-AA wasn't as strong overall? Check.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby CAA Flagship » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:34 am

93henfan wrote:89 just ripping the tits off the western ladyboys.

There's nothing worse than titless, western, ladyboys. :lol:

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:41 am

89Hen wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:As significant as GSU AND YSU being in 14 finals in a 16 year time span? GSU starts a football program, and just like that they dominate FCS for 16 years.

You mean back when I-AA wasn't as strong overall? Check.


FCS - NDSU in 6 of the last 9 championship games, 7 out of 10 including this year.
FBS - Alabama in 6 of the last 9 championship games, TBD

Is FBS down too?
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