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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:16 am
by 89Hen
kalm wrote:I didn't bring the computers into this discussion and I view them strictly as a resource for SoS. But since 93 chose them as one of his main data points other than eyeballs...
FTR, I'm pretty sure it was our resident statistician, JSO, that brought in the computers. You know, the guy who for a dozen years wouldn't put his money where his mouth was.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:02 am
by kalm
89Hen wrote:kalm wrote:I didn't bring the computers into this discussion and I view them strictly as a resource for SoS. But since 93 chose them as one of his main data points other than eyeballs...
FTR, I'm pretty sure it was our resident statistician, JSO, that brought in the computers. You know, the guy who for a dozen years wouldn't put his money where his mouth was.
Let me check and see if it wasn’t 93...nope.
He also chose to use just one year this decade vs what I’m guessing were some high quality years from the 2000’s.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:36 am
by 89Hen
Was there a post prior to this one?...
JohnStOnge wrote:I might do more of this kind of thing later but for now just a quick check.
The earliest set of Sagarin ratings I can get to is for 1998. In the context of the overall Division I final rankings then the top 5 I-AA teams were rated 64, 65, 66, 79, and 88.
As of now in 2018 the top 5 FCS (I-AA) teams are rated 24, 58, 73, 79, and 90.
Obviously North Dakota State is the 24. But, at least according to Sagarin, I'm not seeing a big difference between 2 through 5 in 1998 and 2 through 5 in 2018 in terms of how the top I-AA/FCS teams rank in the overall Division I context.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:45 am
by Chizzang
89Hen wrote:Was there a post prior to this one?...
JohnStOnge wrote:I might do more of this kind of thing later but for now just a quick check.
The earliest set of Sagarin ratings I can get to is for 1998. In the context of the overall Division I final rankings then the top 5 I-AA teams were rated 64, 65, 66, 79, and 88.
As of now in 2018 the top 5 FCS (I-AA) teams are rated 24, 58, 73, 79, and 90.
Obviously North Dakota State is the 24. But, at least according to Sagarin, I'm not seeing a big difference between 2 through 5 in 1998 and 2 through 5 in 2018 in terms of how the top I-AA/FCS teams rank in the overall Division I context.
Nice work John,
Kinda puts this whole thread in perspective...
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:47 am
by 89Hen
It's actually kind of funny that you guys are accusing us of not liking new teams. I liked when we had 6 different teams in 6 years win the title from 2000-05. I've always thought that as you go down in talent, teams seem to repeat more often. IOW, when the talent is up overall for a division, you have more teams winning championships.
DII Champions
2018 Valdosta State
2016 Northwest Missouri State
2015 Northwest Missouri State
2013 Northwest Missouri State
2012 Valdosta State
2010 Minnesota-Duluth
2009 Northwest Missouri State
2008 Minnesota-Duluth
2007 Valdosta State
2006 Grand Valley State
2005 Grand Valley State
2004 Valdosta State
2003 Grand Valley State
2002 Grand Valley State
DIII Champions
2018 Mary Hardin-Baylor
2017 Mount Union
2016 Mary Hardin-Baylor
2015 Mount Union
2014 Wisconsin-Whitewater
2013 Wisconsin-Whitewater
2012 Mount Union
2011 Wisconsin-Whitewater
2010 Wisconsin-Whitewater
2009 Wisconsin-Whitewater
2008 Mount Union
2007 Wisconsin-Whitewater
2006 Mount Union
2005 Mount Union
2002 Mount Union
2001 Mount Union
2000 Mount Union
1998 Mount Union
1997 Mount Union
1996 Mount Union
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:29 pm
by Gil Dobie
This decade, we might have to look up the different runner-ups in FCS also. 8 different in 9 years. 2000-2010 had 7 dfferent in 10 years.
2018 EWU or NDSU
2017 JMU
2016 YSU
2015 JSU
2014 ISUR
2013 Towson
2012 SHSU
2011 SHSU
2010 Delaware
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:33 pm
by kalm
89Hen wrote:Was there a post prior to this one?...
JohnStOnge wrote:I might do more of this kind of thing later but for now just a quick check.
The earliest set of Sagarin ratings I can get to is for 1998. In the context of the overall Division I final rankings then the top 5 I-AA teams were rated 64, 65, 66, 79, and 88.
As of now in 2018 the top 5 FCS (I-AA) teams are rated 24, 58, 73, 79, and 90.
Obviously North Dakota State is the 24. But, at least according to Sagarin, I'm not seeing a big difference between 2 through 5 in 1998 and 2 through 5 in 2018 in terms of how the top I-AA/FCS teams rank in the overall Division I context.
You mean JSO's from 12/4 on page 9?
Ummm....yeah like this one by 93hen from 11/9 on page 3:
No, it's more than perspective.
Here are the final rankings in D1 of the top 5 FCS/I-AA teams by year in Sagarin:
2018: 31, 58, 80, 83, 85 (avg 67.4)
Last 5 years of last decade
2010: 52, 57, 58, 72, 75 (62.8)
2009: 30, 49, 57, 60, 76 (54.4)
2008: 41, 45, 62, 63, 69 (56.0)
2007: 44, 62, 67, 71, 73 (63.4)
2006: 53, 57, 59, 70, 71 (62.0)
So even with NDSU figured in, current FCS is decidedly weaker. Take away NDSU and it's WAY weaker.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:36 pm
by kalm
Gil Dobie wrote:This decade, we might have to look up the different runner-ups in FCS also. 8 different in 9 years. 2000-2010 had 7 dfferent in 10 years.
2018 EWU or NDSU
2017 JMU
2016 YSU
2015 JSU
2014 ISUR
2013 Towson
2012 SHSU
2011 SHSU
2010 Delaware
The 2000's were basically just Montana and the CAA. According to 89hen, the FCS must have sucked back then.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:43 pm
by 89Hen
Gil Dobie wrote:This decade, we might have to look up the different runner-ups in FCS also. 8 different in 9 years. 2000-2010 had 7 dfferent in 10 years.
2018 EWU or NDSU
2017 JMU
2016 YSU
2015 JSU
2014 ISUR
2013 Towson
2012 SHSU
2011 SHSU
2010 Delaware
So how many different teams in the finals for each decade? Sounding very lopsided towards 2000-10.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:48 pm
by 89Hen
kalm wrote:Gil Dobie wrote:This decade, we might have to look up the different runner-ups in FCS also. 8 different in 9 years. 2000-2010 had 7 dfferent in 10 years.
2018 EWU or NDSU
2017 JMU
2016 YSU
2015 JSU
2014 ISUR
2013 Towson
2012 SHSU
2011 SHSU
2010 Delaware
The 2000's were basically just Montana and the CAA. According to 89hen, the FCS must have sucked back then.
Maybe you should do your own research kalm.
13 different finalists 2000-09
Villanova
Montana
Richmond
Appalachian State
Delaware
Massachusetts
UNI
James Madison
Colgate
Western Kentucky
McNeese State
Furman
Georgia Southern
9 different finalists 2010-18
North Dakota State
Eastern Washington
James Madison
Youngstown State
Jacksonville State
Illinois State
Towson
Sam Houston State
Delaware
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:55 pm
by 89Hen
kalm wrote:You mean JSO's from 12/4 on page 9?
Ummm....yeah like this one by 93hen from 11/9 on page 3:
That would be earlier.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:13 pm
by Gil Dobie
89Hen wrote:kalm wrote:
The 2000's were basically just Montana and the CAA. According to 89hen, the FCS must have sucked back then.
Maybe you should do your own research kalm.
13 different finalists 2000-09
Villanova
Montana
Richmond
Appalachian State
Delaware
Massachusetts
UNI
James Madison
Colgate
Western Kentucky
McNeese State
Furman
Georgia Southern
9 different finalists 2010-18
North Dakota State
Eastern Washington
James Madison
Youngstown State
Jacksonville State
Illinois State
Towson
Sam Houston State
Delaware
So next year the number could change to 10 or 11 different teams making the finals. Not a big change from 13 over a 10 year span. I'm just not seeing FCS overall as down, except ECB football, and even then, the JMU team this decade was far better than the JMU team of last decade.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:25 pm
by 89Hen
Gil Dobie wrote:So next year the number could change to 10 or 11 different teams making the finals. Not a big change from 13 over a 10 year span. I'm just not seeing FCS overall as down, except ECB football, and even then, the JMU team this decade was far better than the JMU team of last decade.
Could being the operative word. 10 vs 13 out of 20 is a big difference. 10 vs 13 out of 100 is not.
Let's put it another way.
Different champions
2000-09 = 8
2010-18 = 3
Significant
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:27 pm
by Gil Dobie
89Hen wrote:Gil Dobie wrote:So next year the number could change to 10 or 11 different teams making the finals. Not a big change from 13 over a 10 year span. I'm just not seeing FCS overall as down, except ECB football, and even then, the JMU team this decade was far better than the JMU team of last decade.
Could being the operative word. 10 vs 13 out of 20 is a big difference. 10 vs 13 out of 100 is not.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:06 pm
by 93henfan
89 just ripping the tits off the western ladyboys.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:14 pm
by Silenoz
Numbers, shmumbers
Just tell me which group is routinely losing to one team by like 50 points every game
Re: RE: Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:05 pm
by UNI88
93henfan wrote:89 just ripping the tits off the western ladyboys.
Is 89's obsession with moobs a new thing?
Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:56 pm
by Gil Dobie
Silenoz wrote:Numbers, shmumbers
Just tell me which group is routinely losing to one team by like 50 points every game
Is that 3+ scores?
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:03 pm
by kalm
93henfan wrote:89 just ripping the tits off the western ladyboys.
89hen taking over for Baldy with 93 on his back....
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:05 pm
by kalm
89Hen wrote:kalm wrote:
The 2000's were basically just Montana and the CAA. According to 89hen, the FCS must have sucked back then.
Maybe you should do your own research kalm.
13 different finalists 2000-09
Villanova
Montana
Richmond
Appalachian State
Delaware
Massachusetts
UNI
James Madison
Colgate
Western Kentucky
McNeese State
Furman
Georgia Southern
9 different finalists 2010-18
North Dakota State
Eastern Washington
James Madison
Youngstown State
Jacksonville State
Illinois State
Towson
Sam Houston State
Delaware
Again...your opinion but hardly proof. You can have a terrific dynasty without the rest of the subdivision regressing...which has clearly been the case.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:20 pm
by Gil Dobie
89Hen wrote:Gil Dobie wrote:So next year the number could change to 10 or 11 different teams making the finals. Not a big change from 13 over a 10 year span. I'm just not seeing FCS overall as down, except ECB football, and even then, the JMU team this decade was far better than the JMU team of last decade.
Could being the operative word. 10 vs 13 out of 20 is a big difference. 10 vs 13 out of 100 is not.
Let's put it another way.
Different champions
2000-09 = 8
2010-18 = 3
Significant
As significant as GSU AND YSU being in 14 finals in a 16 year time span? GSU starts a football program, and just like that they dominate FCS for 16 years.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:13 am
by Grizalltheway
This puppy might go longer than the elimination game threads.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:32 am
by 89Hen
Gil Dobie wrote:As significant as GSU AND YSU being in 14 finals in a 16 year time span? GSU starts a football program, and just like that they dominate FCS for 16 years.
You mean back when I-AA wasn't as strong overall? Check.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:34 am
by CAA Flagship
93henfan wrote:89 just ripping the tits off the western ladyboys.
There's nothing worse than titless, western, ladyboys.
Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:41 am
by Gil Dobie
89Hen wrote:Gil Dobie wrote:As significant as GSU AND YSU being in 14 finals in a 16 year time span? GSU starts a football program, and just like that they dominate FCS for 16 years.
You mean back when I-AA wasn't as strong overall? Check.
FCS - NDSU in 6 of the last 9 championship games, 7 out of 10 including this year.
FBS - Alabama in 6 of the last 9 championship games, TBD
Is FBS down too?