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MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:19 am
by JBB
This is what has come off the wire so far:
5 dimes added 9/10/19:
NDSU* @ Delaware
GAM: NDSU -9; O/U 63; Mythical score NDSU 36-27
Might be time to listen to the locals. The GAM is known to be conservative.
5 Dimes: NDSU -27.5; O/U 63
DRAKE @ SDSU*
GAM: SDSU -23; O/U 45; Mythical Score SDSU 34-11
5 Dimes: SDSU - 35; O/U 50.5
HOUSTON BAPTIST* @ USD
GAM: HB -2; O/U 62; Mythical Score HB 32-30
This could be a good game. HB has a decent team. Will USD overpower? Maybe, maybe not, that’s the call. Let it be your guide
5 Dimes: USD -27; O/U 69.5
MSU @ TULANE*
GAM: Tulane -13; O/U 55; Mythical Score Tulane 34-21
SHSU @ UND*
GAM: UND -7; O/U 67; Mythical Score UND 37-30
sure the ‘Cats are fast and good but once again the physical nature of the game will assert itself.
5 Dimes: UND -7; O/U 57.5
Just in:
E KENTUCKY @ INDIANA STATE
GAM: EK -2; O/U 58; Mythical Score EK 30-28
5 Dimes: INDS -11; O/U 53
EASTERN ILL @ ILS
GAM: ILS -1; O/U 43; Mythical Score: ILS 22-21
5 Dimes: ILS -14.5; O/U 55
TNMARTIN @ SIU
GAM: SIU -10; O/U 64; Mythical Score SIU 37-27
5 Dimes: SIU -9.5; O/U 62
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:21 pm
by JBB
MONTANA STATE @ WIU
not available yet
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:22 pm
by JBB
Weekly estimate of final finish:
- NDSU 8-0 Last week 8-0
YSU 7-1 Last week 7-1
SDSU 7-2 Last week 5-3
UNI 5-3 Last week 6-2
ILS 4-4 Last week 2-6
IND 3-5 Last week 4-4
MSU 2-6 Last week 1-7
USD 1-7 Last week 2-6
WIU 1-7 Last week 4-4
NDSU projected to go undefeated.
SIU Salukies are the team to watch.
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:46 pm
by 93henfan
If you can get me NDSU -9 anywhere, let me know. I will re-mortgage my home.
NDSU should be AT LEAST -20.
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:43 am
by JBB
I don’t know how bad Delaware is. They have been compared to UND by others. GAM had NDSU -22. NDSU covered 31 on them!
5 Dimes: NDSU -27. Juice is twenty because of uncertainty. Why uncertain? It’s early, it’s FCS. Things can happen.
The true statistical profiles are matched up by the GAM. It is telling you Delaware is good enough to keep NDSUs margin at 9.
You are telling me they won’t. Delaware will not achieve its statistical potential against NDSU. The crowd at 5 Dimes agrees, as does Sagarin.
Sagarin deals in margins of victory and won/loss records. 5 dimes has expert odds makers and crowd sampling from the stream of individual bets. The GAM sets up true statistical profiles.
the GAM is used for fun, to guide on the 3 factors pick: winner with points, O/U and straight up winner. From there we calculate our R value for the weeks games measuring our intuitive skills against the objective facts.
If you believe Delaware is not very good you would take NDSU to cover 9. Probably with your outlook take the under. Del won’t be contributing much to the route. As for the straight up in line bet take NDSU of course. That’s what We are doing hopefully for 3. Everybody seems to know the spread. The other 2 are tricky.
You would say:
NDSU -9; U 63; NDSU to win
It’s like appraising real estate. Everybody seems to know what it’s worth. Most can’t prove it and may think the appraiser is off.
In the real world of money you can get Del +27 right now. We don’t like the bet yet so we are staying away. We rarely take a real position on O/U or in line. If it goes Del +20 or +25 we would be considering NDSU to cover. If it goes to NDSU -30 it might be time to take Del and points.
Our initial 100 is now 530 after 2 weeks in the real world. Last year we only took positions in the playoffs. 100 became well over 1,500 but not 1,600.
We haven’t calculate the R score but it’s good. Much better than the educated guess.
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:01 am
by 93henfan
That's a lot of mumbo jumbo. I trust my brain and was up 15x my investment on 5dimes last year. I don't believe in overanalysis. If you've watched football, particularly at this level, for almost 40 years, you're already well ahead of the bozos setting the lines down in Costa Rica.
NDSU cruises in this one. I would take Delaware at +30 though. That's excessive.
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:46 am
by JBB
93henfan wrote:That's a lot of mumbo jumbo. I trust my brain and was up 15x my investment on 5dimes last year. I don't believe in overanalysis. If you've watched football, particularly at this level, for almost 40 years, you're already well ahead of the bozos setting the lines down in Costa Rica.
NDSU cruises in this one. I would take Delaware at +30 though. That's excessive.
Now that’s mumbo jumbo. Your just guessing. You would take Del +30. So would I. I told you that in my post and now you say it too?
The teams line up this week Del +9. Next week it will be different. The teams will have different profiles. You will still be guessing. I will know.
No system is right. It’s any given Saturday, there are humans involved.
Your success rate is great, if true. Mines in black and white for you to see. I dont guess
Also, you avoided a guess on O/u and out right winner. The GAM takes the guess work out of that too by providing the number. All you have to do is decide if each team can achieve or exceed its potential based on the mythical score.
The GAM guides to NDSU -9 (they will cover), the Under because the locals say Delaware sucks as bad as UND and won’t contribute their share and NDSU to win outright. My gut tells me they probably wii.
I’ve never seen Delaware play. Most of the teams run through the mechanism I know little or nothing about. Delaware is one of them. The GAM tells me about them. From there it’s fun to pick the 3 factors. From there I can decide if the game is miss-priced and make the call.
You rely on a lot of study and time watching teams. That does help. I’m relying on a teams performance record, just the facts please.
Actually my system is much closer to using financials to pick stocks than assembling market facts to form an opinion of value in a market approach. This is closer to stock investing, or income approach valuations because information intrinsic to the subject is used not facts about others interpreted to represent the subject.
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:22 am
by 93henfan
Lol. Whatever buddy.
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:44 am
by JBB
No, I am mocking you and your clever guess work.
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:47 am
by 93henfan
JBB wrote:No, I am mocking you and your clever guess work.
My guesswork is leading the GoHens spread pool and lining my pockets on 5Dimes.
But I realize you must have a lot invested in your system, so I'm not going to say anything more about it. I'll let you go on thinking you have it all figured out.
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:36 am
by JBB
Sorry I got side-tracked.
Weekly estimate of final finish:
NDSU 8-0 Last week 8-0
YSU 7-1 Last week 7-1
SDSU 7-2 Last week 5-3
UNI 5-3 Last week 6-2
SIU 4-4 Last week 0-8
ILS 4-4 Last week 2-6
IND 3-5 Last week 4-4
MSU 2-6 Last week 1-7
USD 1-7 Last week 2-6
WIU 1-7 Last week 4-4
NDSU projected to go undefeated.
SIU Salukies are the team to watch.
If you are inclined to guess (some brag too) pick the three factors for each of the games covered this week. If you are any good we will give you a cookie.
We will have to wait until Saturday to find out if Delaware is an embarrassment as their fans are arguing.
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:11 am
by kalm
93henfan wrote:JBB wrote:No, I am mocking you and your clever guess work.
My guesswork is leading the GoHens spread pool and lining my pockets on 5Dimes.
But I realize you must have a lot invested in your system, so I'm not going to say anything more about it. I'll let you go on thinking you have it all figured out.
Speaking of GAMs...
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:24 am
by JBB
Houston Baptist @ USD is an interesting game.
The Huskies have put together 2 good games out scoring USD 92-31.
They have out-gained USD 1,037yds - 700 yds.
Their passing game has been outstanding with 7 TDs and 323 yds/game.
HB has allowed 638 yds. USD 1,243.
HB is rushing for 296 yds/game while USD is giving up 238.
The Huskies sure look good on paper. Good enough to have a 2 point edge over USD. This is quite the contrast to 5 Dimes which believes the Huskies need 30.5 to keep it even.
The GAM has this game even, with a slight edge to HB. There is a strength discrepancy and remember HB hasn't had a winning season since at least 2014, the furthest back I looked.
The O/U is 69 at 5 Dimes with the GAM at 67. The expectation from the betting crowd is HB is going to be helpless. They have shown more than helplessness this season. The GAM thinks HB has game.
I don't think USD can cover 30.5. It might be close but that's a steep hill for an avg at best MVFC team to climb.
Remember USD only put together 3 MVFC wins last year against the weakest teams in the league. They didnt avg 30 pts/game and didn't come close to covering 31.
We have called in HB + 30.5 for 120 against 100.
FINAL HB 53-52. One of the great games played and a great call by the GAM HB -2. Tough spread to cover considering they had lost their previous 18 in-a-row to FCS teams.
Great call for the money!
Re: MVFC 9/14/19
Posted: Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:32 am
by JBB
JBB wrote:This is what has come off the wire so far:
5 dimes added 9/10/19:
NDSU* @ Delaware
GAM: NDSU -9; O/U 63; Mythical score NDSU 36-27
Might be time to listen to the locals. The GAM is known to be conservative.
5 Dimes: NDSU -27.5; O/U 63
HALF: NDSU 22-5. Bison stronger, faster, better. UD running game showing some spark. They can’t create a pocket. Lots of Bison sacks.
FINAL: NDSU 47-22. The GAM saw a stronger Del team. 27.5 pts were just enough for those with the foresight to go for it. Made it an exciting game
DRAKE @ SDSU*
GAM: SDSU -23; O/U 45; Mythical Score SDSU 34-11
5 Dimes: SDSU - 35; O/U 50.5
4 min into 1st half: SDSU 3-0; SDSU 17-3 half
FINAL: SDSU 38-10. They couldn’t cover 35 like they wanted at 5 Dimes but they did cover the GAMs 23 points
HOUSTON BAPTIST* @ USD
GAM: HB -2; O/U 62; Mythical Score HB 32-30
This could be a good game. HB has a decent team. Will USD overpower? Maybe, maybe not, that’s the call. Let it be your guide
5 Dimes: USD -27; O/U 69.5
End of 1st Qtr. USD 10-7
HALF: USD 24-17
END 3rd QTR: Tied 38-38. HB driving. This is a great game. Worth watching.
Early 4th: HB Miller injured and out. HB playing a great college game with the upset brewing 45-38 HB. What a game!
FINAL: HB 53 - 52. GAM Called this upset and we picked up a C-note to boot!
MSU @ TULANE*
GAM: Tulane -13; O/U 55; Mythical Score Tulane 34-21
FINAL: Tulane 58-6
SHSU @ UND*
GAM: UND -7; O/U 67; Mythical Score UND 37-30
sure the ‘Cats are fast and good but once again the physical nature of the game will assert itself.
5 Dimes: UND -7; O/U 57.5
END 1st QTR: UND 14-0. SHSU isn’t physically cut out for this level of football. Good D2 team right now. UND looking solid against the likes of them.
2nd QTR: SHSU turns it around with some good football. No longer disgusted with them. Now 14-14.
FINAL: UND 27-23 in a solid football game for both teams.
Just in:
E KENTUCKY @ INDIANA STATE
GAM: EK -2; O/U 58; Mythical Score EK 30-28
5 Dimes: INDS -11; O/U 53
FINAL: IND 19-7. Great win for Sycamores. Back on track and overcoming underdog status at both the GAM and 5 Dimes. Lot different game then you might have thought.
EASTERN ILL @ ILS
GAM: ILS -1; O/U 43; Mythical Score: ILS 22-21
5 Dimes: ILS -14.5; O/U 55
End of 1st qtr ILS 14-0
FINAL: ILS 21-3. ILS covers the spread but Eastern is unable to contribute many points giving it to the unders.
TNMARTIN @ SIU
GAM: SIU -10; O/U 64; Mythical Score SIU 37-27
5 Dimes: SIU -9.5; O/U 62
HALF: 14 - 14
END OF 3: SIU 28-14 they might cover!
FINAL: SIU 28-14. Watch the Salukis they are hot with a bullet, as we once said in the music business