Playoff projection thread

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Playoff projection thread

Post by BDKJMU »

FCS selection committee ranking to be released Nov. 6

(STATS) -- The FCS playoff picture is far from being cleared up, but the selection committee will bring it into focus a little more on Nov. 6 with the release of its top-10 ranking of contenders.

The ranking, which is used to help to build excitement toward the 24-team playoff field, will be announced on ESPN2 during halftime of the Miami (Ohio) at Ohio game (8 p.m. ET kickoff).

The selection committee won't release any further rankings until it announces the pairings on Nov. 24 (12:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU). While the lone ranking can have bearing on the bracket, there are three weeks of additional action in between....“
https://www.espn.com/espn/wire?section=ncf&id=27965157

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by 89Hen »

Looking at the standings and games left, I'm predicting this will be the worst W-L record for the playoffs EVER. There are going to be a TON of 8-4 and 7-5 teams in the field.

Several conferences are a shit show. OVC could end up with a four way tie with a bunch of 8-4 teams if my math is correct. Who knows what happens there??

FAMU could end up screwing the MEAC out of a bid. They are ineligible for post-season so if they win the conference second place B-CC or NCAT would go to MEAC/SWAC game and would the committee really take a third place team?

My October guess for the 24 with a reservation to revisit in a couple weeks...

Sacramento State
Weber State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw State
Campbell
James Madison
Villanova
New Hampshire
Stony Brook
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Central Conn
Austin Peay
Jacksonville State
Southeast Missouri State
Lehigh
San Diego
Wofford
Furman
Central Arkansas
Incarnate Word
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

I think Stonybrook has the toughest schedule left for a playoff bid out the CAA. No love for Albany? Or Richmond?

Northern Iowa still has Illinois State and SDSU on their schedule. They could easily end up 7-5 with their signature win being 13-6 over Idaho State. :)

OVC is a shit show. Agreed. Don't be looking for a 3rd team to come out of THAT.
Patriot League is an even bigger shit show. 1 bid?
Southern: I think the winner of the Chattanooga/Citadel game gets in (assuming Citadel then beats Wofford)…
Southland: I think they get 3 in. SHSU (while erratic as HELL this year) has a fairly easy finish to get to 8-4 and 6-2 in conference.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by UNI88 »

AZGrizFan wrote:I think Stonybrook has the toughest schedule left for a playoff bid out the CAA. No love for Albany? Or Richmond?

Northern Iowa still has Illinois State and SDSU on their schedule. They could easily end up 7-5 with their signature win being 13-6 over Idaho State. :)

OVC is a shit show. Agreed. Don't be looking for a 3rd team to come out of THAT.
Patriot League is an even bigger shit show. 1 bid?
Southern: I think the winner of the Chattanooga/Citadel game gets in (assuming Citadel then beats Wofford)…
Southland: I think they get 3 in. SHSU (while erratic as HELL this year) has a fairly easy finish to get to 8-4 and 6-2 in conference.
If UNI plays to form, they'll lose to ISUr and then upset SDSU to squeak in.

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

UNI88 wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:I think Stonybrook has the toughest schedule left for a playoff bid out the CAA. No love for Albany? Or Richmond?

Northern Iowa still has Illinois State and SDSU on their schedule. They could easily end up 7-5 with their signature win being 13-6 over Idaho State. :)

OVC is a shit show. Agreed. Don't be looking for a 3rd team to come out of THAT.
Patriot League is an even bigger shit show. 1 bid?
Southern: I think the winner of the Chattanooga/Citadel game gets in (assuming Citadel then beats Wofford)…
Southland: I think they get 3 in. SHSU (while erratic as HELL this year) has a fairly easy finish to get to 8-4 and 6-2 in conference.
If UNI plays to form, they'll lose to ISUr and then upset SDSU to squeak in.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

I'm almost CERTAIN they'll lose to one of those, although I predict it'll be the reverse of what you predicted. And yes, they'll be one of those 7-5 teams that magically gets a bid.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by kalm »

89Hen wrote:Looking at the standings and games left, I'm predicting this will be the worst W-L record for the playoffs EVER. There are going to be a TON of 8-4 and 7-5 teams in the field.

Several conferences are a shit show. OVC could end up with a four way tie with a bunch of 8-4 teams if my math is correct. Who knows what happens there??

FAMU could end up screwing the MEAC out of a bid. They are ineligible for post-season so if they win the conference second place B-CC or NCAT would go to MEAC/SWAC game and would the committee really take a third place team?

My October guess for the 24 with a reservation to revisit in a couple weeks...

Sacramento State
Weber State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw State
Campbell
James Madison
Villanova
New Hampshire
Stony Brook
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Central Conn
Austin Peay
Jacksonville State
Southeast Missouri State
Lehigh
San Diego
Wofford
Furman
Central Arkansas
Incarnate Word
Monmouth has a better shot than Campbell for an at large. The Camels still face Monmouth and KSU either of which would be by far their best win.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by UNI88 »

AZGrizFan wrote:
UNI88 wrote:
If UNI plays to form, they'll lose to ISUr and then upset SDSU to squeak in.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

I'm almost CERTAIN they'll lose to one of those, although I predict it'll be the reverse of what you predicted. And yes, they'll be one of those 7-5 teams that magically gets a bid.
If you go by the odds then yes the reverse is much more likely. But UNI likes to lose early, put their backs against the wall and then pull a (jack)rabbit out of their hat.

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by dal4018 »

89Hen wrote:Looking at the standings and games left, I'm predicting this will be the worst W-L record for the playoffs EVER. There are going to be a TON of 8-4 and 7-5 teams in the field.

Several conferences are a shit show. OVC could end up with a four way tie with a bunch of 8-4 teams if my math is correct. Who knows what happens there??

FAMU could end up screwing the MEAC out of a bid. They are ineligible for post-season so if they win the conference second place B-CC or NCAT would go to MEAC/SWAC game and would the committee really take a third place team?

My October guess for the 24 with a reservation to revisit in a couple weeks...

Sacramento State
Weber State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw State
Campbell
James Madison
Villanova
New Hampshire
Stony Brook
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Central Conn
Austin Peay
Jacksonville State
Southeast Missouri State
Lehigh
San Diego
Wofford
Furman
Central Arkansas
Incarnate Word
Well then the committee better hope that A&T wins the MEAC CHAMPIONSHIP.

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by dal4018 »

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote:Looking at the standings and games left, I'm predicting this will be the worst W-L record for the playoffs EVER. There are going to be a TON of 8-4 and 7-5 teams in the field.

Several conferences are a shit show. OVC could end up with a four way tie with a bunch of 8-4 teams if my math is correct. Who knows what happens there??

FAMU could end up screwing the MEAC out of a bid. They are ineligible for post-season so if they win the conference second place B-CC or NCAT would go to MEAC/SWAC game and would the committee really take a third place team?

My October guess for the 24 with a reservation to revisit in a couple weeks...

Sacramento State
Weber State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw State
Campbell
James Madison
Villanova
New Hampshire
Stony Brook
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Central Conn
Austin Peay
Jacksonville State
Southeast Missouri State
Lehigh
San Diego
Wofford
Furman
Central Arkansas
Incarnate Word
Monmouth has a better shot than Campbell for an at large. The Camels still face Monmouth and KSU either of which would be by far their best win.
Let's go Hawks!!!!!

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by 89Hen »

kalm wrote:Monmouth has a better shot than Campbell for an at large. The Camels still face Monmouth and KSU either of which would be by far their best win.
I picked the Camels over Monmouth head to head, so that's why they get in.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by 89Hen »

dal4018 wrote:Well then the committee better hope that A&T wins the MEAC CHAMPIONSHIP.
Only matters if FAMU ends up in third.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by HI54UNI »

UNI88 wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I'm almost CERTAIN they'll lose to one of those, although I predict it'll be the reverse of what you predicted. And yes, they'll be one of those 7-5 teams that magically gets a bid.
If you go by the odds then yes the reverse is much more likely. But UNI likes to lose early, put their backs against the wall and then pull a (jack)rabbit out of their hat.
Plus Farley seems to have SDSU's number in the regular season.
All my posts are satire.

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by Winterborn »

HI54UNI wrote:
UNI88 wrote:
If you go by the odds then yes the reverse is much more likely. But UNI likes to lose early, put their backs against the wall and then pull a (jack)rabbit out of their hat.
Plus Farley seems to have SDSU's number in the regular season.
And SDSU is on a backup QB. Gibbs might be out for the season.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by BDKJMU »

89Hen wrote:Looking at the standings and games left, I'm predicting this will be the worst W-L record for the playoffs EVER. There are going to be a TON of 8-4 and 7-5 teams in the field.

Several conferences are a shit show. OVC could end up with a four way tie with a bunch of 8-4 teams if my math is correct. Who knows what happens there??

FAMU could end up screwing the MEAC out of a bid. They are ineligible for post-season so if they win the conference second place B-CC or NCAT would go to MEAC/SWAC game and would the committee really take a third place team?

My October guess for the 24 with a reservation to revisit in a couple weeks...

Sacramento State
Weber State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw State
Campbell
James Madison
Villanova
New Hampshire
Stony Brook
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Central Conn
Austin Peay
Jacksonville State
Southeast Missouri State
Lehigh
San Diego
Wofford
Furman
Central Arkansas
Incarnate Word
I’ve got 20 of those, all except the bolded.

You plan on UNH beating VU this Sat or @ JMU next Sat, or getting in at 6-5? :suspicious:
Remove UNH. The CAA after 6 last yr only gets this this year. Add SIU for a 5th MVFC. See them finishing 7-5/5-3 with their MVFC schedule + 2 G5 and a playoff OOC.

In the NEC remove CCSU and add Duquesne. Just a hunch since that 11/23 play-in game is @ Duquesne.

In the Southland add SHSU and remove Incarnate Word. I see SHSU finishing 8-4. Incarnate Word drops their last 2 (@ N Mex and UCA) and finishes 7-5. Even if they finished 8-4, SHSU destroyed them 45-6.

In the So-Con remove Wofford and add the Citadel. That looks like an 11/23 playin game. I‘ll go with the home team Bulldogs.

I’ll go with three 7-5 teams getting at larges: UNI, SIU, Mt St. Now if CCSU loses to Duquesne, but finished 10-2 without beating anybody decent, would they get in over a 7-5 from a power conference?

My 24:
Sacramento State
Weber State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw State
Campbell
James Madison
Villanova
Stony Brook
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
SIU
Duquesne
Austin Peay
Jacksonville State
Southeast Missouri State
Lehigh
San Diego
Citadel
Furman
Central Arkansas
SHSU

Seeds:
1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Weber
4. SDSU
5. Sac St
6. KSU
7. UCA
8. Furman
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by BDKJMU »

A prime example of how the field is too large. With 10 AQs, only have to have 10 AT large. Bring the field back to 20 teams, eliminating 1/2 the garbage that gets in.

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by Gil Dobie »

NAU or Portland could be added if they finish strong. PSU has 2 FBS losses and NAU 3 top 20 losses and a FBS. UND beat SHSU head to head, but only play 11 games.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

Gil Dobie wrote:NAU or Portland could be added if they finish strong. PSU has 2 FBS losses and NAU 3 top 20 losses and a FBS. UND beat SHSU head to head, but only play 11 games.
PSU has 2 FBS losses and 2 NAIA wins. They can’t get to 7 D-I wins.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by dal4018 »

89Hen wrote:
dal4018 wrote:Well then the committee better hope that A&T wins the MEAC CHAMPIONSHIP.
Only matters if FAMU ends up in third.
Showtime starts this weekend.

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by SuperHornet »

Does the lineup (or the arrangement) look any different with the playoffs seeded 1-24? Or if it's regionalized and seeded 1-6 in each region?
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Re: Playoff projection thread

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South Dakota State loses thier QB for the season. Should still make the playoffs.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by JBB »

Gil Dobie wrote:South Dakota State loses thier QB for the season. Should still make the playoffs.
Here’s a little more on Gils report from the SDSU board:

https://twitter.com/kdltsports/status/1 ... 46182?s=21
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by dal4018 »

AZGrizFan wrote:I think Stonybrook has the toughest schedule left for a playoff bid out the CAA. No love for Albany? Or Richmond?

Northern Iowa still has Illinois State and SDSU on their schedule. They could easily end up 7-5 with their signature win being 13-6 over Idaho State. :)

OVC is a shit show. Agreed. Don't be looking for a 3rd team to come out of THAT.
Patriot League is an even bigger shit show. 1 bid?
Southern: I think the winner of the Chattanooga/Citadel game gets in (assuming Citadel then beats Wofford)…
Southland: I think they get 3 in. SHSU (while erratic as HELL this year) has a fairly easy finish to get to 8-4 and 6-2 in conference.
What do you have against the OVC?????

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by SuperHornet »

Let's be careful about saying that seasons are automatically shot when the starting QB goes down.

The Colts went a LONG way with RB Tom Matte playing QB after Johnny Unitas and Gary Cuozzo both got hurt. The Rams got to the Super Bowl after Pat Haden broke his finger. The Raiders went to the Super Bowl with backup Jim Plunkett (whom just about everyone had termed "washed up" after flunking out of a New England no-cut contract and San Francisco) after Dan Pastorini broke his leg. And who could forget Pastor Nick's performance taking the Eagles to the Super Bowl and a win after Carson Wentz went down with ACL tear.....
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by dal4018 »

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote:Looking at the standings and games left, I'm predicting this will be the worst W-L record for the playoffs EVER. There are going to be a TON of 8-4 and 7-5 teams in the field.

Several conferences are a shit show. OVC could end up with a four way tie with a bunch of 8-4 teams if my math is correct. Who knows what happens there??

FAMU could end up screwing the MEAC out of a bid. They are ineligible for post-season so if they win the conference second place B-CC or NCAT would go to MEAC/SWAC game and would the committee really take a third place team?

My October guess for the 24 with a reservation to revisit in a couple weeks...

Sacramento State
Weber State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw State
Campbell
James Madison
Villanova
New Hampshire
Stony Brook
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Central Conn
Austin Peay
Jacksonville State
Southeast Missouri State
Lehigh
San Diego
Wofford
Furman
Central Arkansas
Incarnate Word
Monmouth has a better shot than Campbell for an at large. The Camels still face Monmouth and KSU eitheYr of which would be by far their best win.
They laid the smackdown on Kennesaw St 45-21 this will put them in the top 25.Florida A&M is stomping on Delaware St 31-0 right now.

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Post by dal4018 »

SuperHornet speaking of backup QBs remember Doug Williams he like Plunkett was a hot shot first round choice.

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