FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Football Championship Subdivision discussions
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FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

**********FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE**********
GAM Labs Publishing Nov 24, 2019

Just off the wire:
UND @ Nicholls State*
GAM: Nicholls -3; O/U 61; Mythical Score Nicholls 32-29
5 Dimes: Pick for 120 to get 100; O/U 59.5
ACTUAL: Nicholls 24-6
ILS* @ SE Mizziou
GAM: ILS -1; O/U 47; Mythical Score ILS 24-23
5 Dimes: ILS -2.5; O/U 37.5
ACTUAL: ILS 24-6
Cent Con State* @ Albany
GAM: CCSU -5; O/U 55; Mythical Score CCSU 30-25
5 Dimes: Albany -4.5; O/U 57
ACTUAL: Albany 43-14
Furman* @ Austin Peay
GAM: Furman -1; O/U 55; Mythical Score Furman 28-27
5 Dimes: Furman -1; O/U 120
ACTUAL: AP 42-6
Holy Cross @ Monmouth*
GAM: Monmouth -3; O/U 63; Mythical Score Monmouth 33-30
5 Dimes: Monmouth -6; O/U 51.5
ACTUAL: Monmouth 44-27 This victory is what they needed going into JMU next week.
San Diego* @ UNI
GAM: USD -5; O/U 57; Mythical Score USD 31-26
5 Dimes: UNI -12; O/U 59.5
ACTUAL: UNI 17-3
Villanova @ SE LA*
GAM: SE LA -4; O/U 64; Mythical Score SE LA 34-30
5 Dimes: Villanova -1; O/U 68.5
ACTUAL: SELA 45-44

Kennesaw State* @ Wofford
GAM: KSU -2; O/U 60; Mythical Score KSU 31-29
5 Dimes: Wofford -6.5; O/U 54.5
ACTUAL: KSU 28-21
Last edited by JBB on Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:51 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by kalm »

:suspicious:
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

These are all forecast to be close, competitive games.

Nicholls will try and ride home field and an advantage on defense to win by 3. UND doesn't travel particularly well.

ILS is also hoping to ride a defensive advantage to victory at SE Missouri. Neither ILS or UND are high scoring teams. One or both could find themselves trying to keep it respectable. On the other hand their defenses arent letting the opponents get much either. That's what makes it interesting.

Central Connecticut State is a high scoring outfit with a stingy defense. They outscore opponents 2:1. The GAM forecasts it will be too much but Albany can score too. An interesting game with one of the largest spreads of the day could be a scoring fest.

Furman @ Austin Peay could be the game of the day. Two powerful offenses and 2 stingy defenses. Among the best. Furmans defense plays on a 126 yard field. That might be too long for AP allowing Furman to lite the score board up a little.

Both look good on paper but the Forecast is for Monmouth to eliminate Holy Cross. The Monmouth offense stands a pretty good chance of overwhelming Holy Cross which plays a good strong game on both sides of the ball. Monmouths rushing game stands out as the force to lead the way against Holy Cross eventually opening up the pass as well.

UNI sits in a similar position as Holy Cross: good team facing a better one. They will have to find a way to stop San Diegos passing game if the Panthers hope to stay in it.

Villanova @ SE La is another potential open house game of thrills and spills. Stellar offenses meet stellar defenses. The GAM as usual seems to be putting a little more weight on the defense giving SE La a slight edge.

Kennesaw State @ Wofford could be one of those games separating contenders from pretenders. There may be a couple more today as well. Equally matched with good defenses KSUs offensive advantage gives them an edge. Do the Owls belong? We shall see.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

Just in:

NDSU is now -1 over JMU 28-27. Although JMUs offense scores more on fewer yards they will have to do it on the 157 yard field the Bison defense creates for opposing offenses.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

********THREAD WARNING ISSUED*********
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

UND, big time program they are, and big talkers, can't come up with the dollars to gain a first round playoff game at the Alerus? :lol:

I guess they decided to travel 2,000 miles. Must have learned their lesson when they lost a mountain of money on their one playoff debacle at the Alerus. :lol:

UND Hockey team is using the old equipment trailers. They will probably have to rent horse trailers from NDSU again to move their equipment. I think NDSU rents them trucks too.

This should be a great time for UND to show their readiness for the FBS with a huge contingent on hand down in LA. Nothing says FBS like a big crowd on the road. Of all the fan bases in the FCS UND is the one that wants that FBS moniker the worst.

Even though they have never been mentioned by the national media or anyone other than themselves as a potential FBS candidate for any conference, have little success at the FCS level and are broke their fans have been insisting they move up since they scrambled into D1 FCS which is of course beneath them. They pine for the FBS like they pine for a playoff game in the Fabulous Fargo Dome, not one in the Alerus where few people bother to gather. :lol:
Last edited by JBB on Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:05 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

Picked this up on Bisonville, thought it was funny:
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Default Re: 2019 FCS Selection Show

Quote Originally Posted by Bison 4 Life:
Today I learned that NDSU only wins playoff games because of the dome and 2019 JMU is the greatest FCS team of all time.
Well I hope that juggernaut can make its way through the gauntlet on their side of the bracket so our guys can meet them in Frisco and kick their sorry asses ba..., er, I mean, see how our guys measure up. Yeah, that’s what I meant.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by kalm »

JBB wrote:********THREAD WARNING ISSUED*********
kalm wrote::suspicious:
YOU HAVE VIOLATED COMMUNITY STANDARDS FOR THIS THREAD. THIS IS YOUR FIRST WARNING. SECOND WARNING WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF THREAD PRIVILEGES. THIRD WARNING MAY RESULT IN PERMANENT REMOVAL OF THREAD PRIVILEGES.
This community has standards? :suspicious: :suspicious:
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by 89Hen »

San Diego* @ UNI
GAM: USD -5; O/U 57; Mythical Score USD 31-26
Where can I get in on this action? :suspicious:
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by Vidav »

JBB wrote:********THREAD WARNING ISSUED*********
kalm wrote::suspicious:
YOU HAVE VIOLATED COMMUNITY STANDARDS FOR THIS THREAD. THIS IS YOUR FIRST WARNING. SECOND WARNING WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF THREAD PRIVILEGES. THIRD WARNING MAY RESULT IN PERMANENT REMOVAL OF THREAD PRIVILEGES.
:suspicious:
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by Silenoz »

JBB wrote:********THREAD WARNING ISSUED*********
kalm wrote::suspicious:
YOU HAVE VIOLATED COMMUNITY STANDARDS FOR THIS THREAD. THIS IS YOUR FIRST WARNING. SECOND WARNING WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF THREAD PRIVILEGES. THIRD WARNING MAY RESULT IN PERMANENT REMOVAL OF THREAD PRIVILEGES.
You really are an insane motherfucker
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by UNI88 »

Vidav wrote:
JBB wrote:********THREAD WARNING ISSUED*********



YOU HAVE VIOLATED COMMUNITY STANDARDS FOR THIS THREAD. THIS IS YOUR FIRST WARNING. SECOND WARNING WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF THREAD PRIVILEGES. THIRD WARNING MAY RESULT IN PERMANENT REMOVAL OF THREAD PRIVILEGES.
:suspicious:
I'm with Vidav and Kalm. This is ...
:suspicious: :suspicious:
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by clenz »

Remember the message I sent...that is all I'll say on this.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by UNI88 »

clenz wrote:Remember the message I sent...that is all I'll say on this.
:?:
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by SuperHornet »

Nicholls State 35, North Dakota 27

SEMO 42, IL State 25

C. CT State 24, Albany 17

Furman 31, Austin Peay 24

Wofford 49, Kennesaw State 10

Villanova 37, SELA 24

UNI 42, U of San Diego 17

Monmouth 34, Holy Cross 14
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JohnStOnge »

Ok just for fun let's post the Sagarin predictions for comparison (Sagarin spreads rounded to nearest 0.5).

5 Dimes says Nicholls State by 3. Sagarin says Nicholls State by 3.

5 Dimes says Illinois State by 1. Sagarin says tossup. Literally zero. When you take the SE Missouri rating and add the 2.32 for the home field you get 52.75. Illinois State is rated 52.75.

5 Dimes says Central Connecticut by 5. Sagarin says Albany by 3.

5 Dimes says Furman by 1. Sagarin says tossup by the way I'm doing it because I'm rounding to the nearest 0.5. Taking home field into account Sagarin Austin Peay rates 0.22 points higher.

5 Dimes says Monmouth by 3. Sagarin says Monmouth by 10.

5 Dimes says San Diego by 5. Sagarin says UNI by 12.

5 Dimes says SE Louisiana by 4. Sagarin says toss up because I'm rounding to the nearest 0.5. Taking home field advantage into account Sagarin rates Villanova 0.05 points higher.

5 Dimes says Kennesaw State by 2. Sagarin says Wofford by 8.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by 89Hen »

I'd have to begrudgingly go with sagarin.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

UNI88 wrote:
clenz wrote:Remember the message I sent...that is all I'll say on this.
:?:
Angry villagers.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

Checking out the 5 dimes posting there is nothing really standing out right now. May take a day to digest before we convene for the board meeting.

Problem is the juice. Its running 20 on every proposition.

Off hand looking at the UNI, Kennesaw, Villanova, Albany and Nicholls games. The pick em on the Nicholls game is interesting but the juice is high.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

89Hen wrote:
San Diego* @ UNI
GAM: USD -5; O/U 57; Mythical Score USD 31-26
Where can I get in on this action? :suspicious:
The action is at 5 dimes. The information you are citing is a forecast for the game provided by GAM Labs. Here is the proposition at 5 Dimes:
5 dimes: UNI -12; O/U 49
It is up to you to decide what to do with the information supplied by GAM Labs and the opportunities presented at 5 dimes. We have used it this season to gather $2,215 from the good folks over at 5 dimes.

This could be another example of a grossly miss-priced proposition.

The GAM is forecasting USD as the winner outright. 5 Dimes offers USD +12.

Because the GAM is forecasting the upset if you decide to take UNI they probably will not cover the 12. You are better off with San Diego +12.

Because the GAM is forecasting O/U of 57 the game will probably go over the 49 forecast by 5 dimes.

The juice is stiff at 120. You get nothing for taking the dog. Not a good proposition if your conviction isn't high and your team not reliable.

Of the 3 factors: win/spread; O/U; outright winner the GAM has maintained a 9.8% edge over the odds makers. This is the edge you need to be profitable. The odds makers at 5 dimes are very good. Its amazing sometimes how it all falls into place for them often in the last few minutes of a game. Im in awe of them but often have their number.

Thanks GAM Labs:

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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

Here is what I will be presenting to the board in a few hours:

RE: San Diego @ UNI

San Diego scored 459 allowing 254 points UNI 285 allowing 235.
San Diego 5,487 total yds UNI 3,821
San Diego allowed 4,065 yds UNI 3,687

Going in San Diegos passing game is the strongest force.

UNI plays even with its opponents and is not as productive as the San Diego team which scores more without giving up more.

San Diego offense plays on an 84 yd field. UNI 94
San Diego Defense plays on a 112 yd field. UNI 110.

Its close but San Diego always has the edge. Is the UNI strength of schedule the issue that nullifies the obvious San Diego advantages? Will travel hurt San Diego? They were 4-1 on the road.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by dal4018 »

Too bad Florida A&M are not eligible for the playoffs I would like to see what they do against Kennesaw St if they were to meet in the playoffs.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by dal4018 »

Or South Carolina St vs Wofford I think that the Terriers would like to get a shot at REVENGE against the BULLDOGS.
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

I've done what I could to get your forecasts into proper form. Italics are my corrections.
SuperHornet wrote: Nicholls -8; O/U 72 Mythical score: Nicholls State 35, North Dakota 27

SEMO -17; O/U 67 Mythical score: SEMO 42, IL State 25

CCS -7; O/U 49 Mythical score: C. CT State 24, Albany 17

Furman -7; O/U 55 Mythical score: Furman 31, Austin Peay 24

Wofford -39: O/U 59 Mythical score: Wofford 49, Kennesaw State 10

Villanova -13; O/U 71 Mythical score: Villanova 37, SELA 24

UNI - 25; O/U 59 Mythical score: UNI 42, U of San Diego 17

Monmouth -20; O/U 48 Mythical score: Monmouth 34, Holy Cross 14
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Re: FCS PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Post by JBB »

dal4018 wrote:Too bad Florida A&M are not eligible for the playoffs I would like to see what they do against Kennesaw St if they were to meet in the playoffs.
Kennesaw is a puzzle and I look forward to their games for that reason. Many are dismissing them. The GAM says they deserve respect, at least for now.
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