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1. This is going to be like the bracket challenge usually done on AGS, except instead of picking winners, you pick whether or not the favored team covers the spread (using my own calculated spreads, don't know where to get lines for FCS games anyways).

2. For each game pick either the favorite (they will cover the spread) or the underdog (favorite will fail to cover spread). Rank the games from your most confident to your least confident. For each correct pick you get more points the higher your confidence rank was for the game. Your points for each round will be the percentage of the maximum possible points for that round you got. Later rounds are going to be weighted more in your total score so if you F up in the first round you still have a shot.

3. Hint: because there are no non-conference games this spring I have to include 2019 games or the calculations can't be done, though the 2019 games weigh less in the calculations than the 2021 games. This is true of any computer rankings system. If there's a game you think 2019 data is skewing the spread that might be a good game to assign higher confidence to.

The numbers next to the teams are offense rank, defense rank, turnover rank, and overall rank

South Dakota State 12 5 24 7
Holy Cross 17 85 31 45

SDSU is favored by 19.2 points

James Madison 10 1 29 2
VMI 40 77 40 55

JMU is favored by 29.1 points

Weber State 22 44 2 6
Southern Illinois 20 35 75 26

Weber State is favored by 14.9 points.

North Dakota 21 20 14 14
Missouri State 71 14 64 44

North Dakota is favored by 12.6 points.

Sam Houston State 6 7 1 1
Monmouth 11 17 27 10

Sam Houston State is favored by 13.7 points.

Jacksonville State 38 8 67 18
Davidson 44 78 52 63

JSU is favored by 15.2 points.

Delaware 34 13 10 13
Sacred Heart 39 27 48 31

Delaware is favored by 9.4 points.

North Dakota State 9 6 46 8
Eastern Washington 1 19 28 3

EWU is favored by 1.9 points.
(the model thinks NDSU will lose the turnover battle and that will make the difference in the game)

1. Weber State (Weber wins AND covers.)
2. SW Missouri State (SW Missouri State wins outright.)
3. SHSU (SHSU wins AND covers.)
4. VMI (JMU wins, but fails to cover.)
5. Holy Cross (SDSU wins, but fails to cover.)
6. Delaware (Delaware wins AND covers.)
7. Jacksonville State (Jax State wins AND covers.)
8. NDSU (NDSU wins outright.)

FYI, for me, the EWU-NDSU game was more difficult because of conference loyalty AND the minuscule size of the point spread.

Sam Houston -13.7
Delaware -9.4
Jacksonville State -15.2
North Dakota -12.6
VMI +29.1
South Dakota -19.2
Weber -14.9
North Dakota State +1.9

SuperHornet wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:14 am 1. Weber State (Weber wins AND covers.)
2. SW Missouri State (SW Missouri State wins outright.)
3. SHSU (SHSU wins AND covers.)
4. VMI (JMU wins, but fails to cover.)
5. Holy Cross (SDSU wins, but fails to cover.)
6. Delaware (Delaware wins AND covers.)
7. Jacksonville State (Jax State wins AND covers.)
8. NDSU (NDSU wins outright.)

FYI, for me, the EWU-NDSU game was more difficult because of conference loyalty AND the minuscule size of the point spread.

Got it, and I assume you mean Missouri State and not SEMO.

Pwns: I don't recognize the name change. For me, Missouri State will ALWAYS be SOUTHWEST Missouri State....

SDSU -19.2
VMI +29.1 (JMU wins)
SIU +14.9 (Weber wins)
Mo St +12.6 (Mo St wins outright)
Sam Houston -13.7
Jacksonville State -15.2
Delaware -9.4
EWU -1.9

Deleted..

SDSU
SHSU
Delaware
JSU
SIU
EWU
VMI
MO State

Every favored team covers except EWU. I think NDSU beats them outright.

Pwns wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:44 am

SuperHornet wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:14 am 1. Weber State (Weber wins AND covers.)
2. SW Missouri State (SW Missouri State wins outright.)
3. SHSU (SHSU wins AND covers.)
4. VMI (JMU wins, but fails to cover.)
5. Holy Cross (SDSU wins, but fails to cover.)
6. Delaware (Delaware wins AND covers.)
7. Jacksonville State (Jax State wins AND covers.)
8. NDSU (NDSU wins outright.)

FYI, for me, the EWU-NDSU game was more difficult because of conference loyalty AND the minuscule size of the point spread.

Got it, and I assume you mean Missouri State and not SEMO.

He's a ****

AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:07 pm Every favored team covers except EWU. I think NDSU beats them outright.

It's kinda hard to beat THAT spread without winning outright, AZ.

AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:07 pm Every favored team covers...... except EWU. I’m envious of EWU for many reasons, but if they beat NDSU in Fargo, they become de facto favorites for the title. That would take me & many other Giz fans to a very dark place indeed, so I HOPE NDSU beats them outright.

Fify.

BlackFalkin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:10 pm

AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:07 pm Every favored team covers...... except EWU. I’m envious of EWU for many reasons, but if they beat NDSU in Fargo, they become de facto favorites for the title. That would take me & many other Giz fans to a very dark place indeed, so I HOPE NDSU beats them outright.

Fify.

This isn't 2010, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 NDSU teams that you are playing. EWU has a real good chance of winning, just hope if they do win, the Bison can keep it close.

Gil Dobie wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:56 pm

BlackFalkin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:10 pm

Fify.

This isn't 2010, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 NDSU teams that you are playing. EWU has a real good chance of winning, just hope if they do win, the Bison can keep it close.

Agreed. If EWU beats the bison in Fargo, you take down all those banners in your signature, deal?

BlackFalkin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:07 pm

Gil Dobie wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:56 pm

This isn't 2010, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 NDSU teams that you are playing. EWU has a real good chance of winning, just hope if they do win, the Bison can keep it close.

Agreed. If EWU beats the bison in Fargo, you take down all those banners in your signature, deal?

Nope, Nope and Nope

Gil Dobie wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:04 pm

BlackFalkin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:07 pm
Agreed. If EWU beats the bison in Fargo, you take down all those banners in your signature, deal?

Nope, Nope and Nope

I hear Bill Fette's handling replay.

UNI88 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:12 pm

Gil Dobie wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:04 pm

Nope, Nope and Nope

I hear Bill Fette's handling replay.

Don't need him this time.

Pwns wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:05 am
JMU is favored by 29.1 points

Weber State 22 44 2 6
Southern Illinois 20 35 75 26

JMU is favored by 14.
https://www.bookmaker.eu/live-lines/football/ncaa(f)fcs

BDKJMU wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:26 pm

Pwns wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:05 am
JMU is favored by 29.1 points

Weber State 22 44 2 6
Southern Illinois 20 35 75 26

JMU is favored by 14.
https://www.bookmaker.eu/live-lines/football/ncaa(f)fcs

Yeah, not sure why he said he couldn't find any spreads on FCS games. They're definitely found by Google

Pwns wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:05 am 1. This is going to be like the bracket challenge usually done on AGS, except instead of picking winners, you pick whether or not the favored team covers the spread (using my own calculated spreads, don't know where to get lines for FCS games anyways).

The FCS spreads have been available the whole season.You’re spreads are way off from the below:

Monmouth @ SHSU (-9.5)
Davidson @ JSU (-21)
VMI @ JMU (-14.5)
Holy Cross @ SDSU (-24)
EWU @ NDSU (-7)
MO St @ UND (-5.5)
SIU @ Weber St (-4)
Sacred Heart @ UD (-19.5)
https://www.bookmaker.eu/live-lines/foo ... %28f%29fcs

I’m deleting my original post, and using the above spreads, am going with:
1. UD
2. Weber
3. SHSU
4. NDSU
5. JMU
6. UND
7. JSU
8. SDSU

So this whole thread is invalid.

BDKJMU wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:13 am The FCS spreads have been available the whole season.You’re spreads are way off from the below:

Monmouth @ SHSU (-9.5)
Davidson @ JSU (-21)
VMI @ JMU (-14.5)
Holy Cross @ SDSU (-24)
EWU @ NDSU (-7)
MO St @ UND (-5.5)
SIU @ Weber St (-4)
Sacred Heart @ UD (-19.5)
https://www.bookmaker.eu/live-lines/foo ... %28f%29fcs

I’m deleting my original post, and using the above spreads, am going with:
1. UD
2. Weber
3. SHSU
4. NDSU
5. JMU
6. UND
7. JSU
8. SDSU

I'm good with those spreads ...

• SDSU -24
• Weber St -4
• Delaware -19.5
• Jacksonville State -21
• JMU -14.5
• Mo St +5.5 (Mo St wins outright)
• EWU +7 (EWU wins outright)
• Monmouth +9.5

Tell you what, if those spreads are closer to the game's results than mine for this round then I'll use them for the rest of the playoff. Of course if they're released late in the week instead of the beginning of the week I can't use them.

The biggest difference between my spread and the ones BDK posted are for JMU, Delaware, and Jax State.

I think the 30-points for JMU is kinda high but I've watched VMI and the SoCon and they just plain weren't good this season. I think I'll be closer.

The CAA outside JMU has mostly been a disappointment in the playoffs for several years now so I don't know if I could take Delaware as a 20-point favorite.

And I think many of us would agree Jax State probably shouldn't be seeded while the Pioneer has at least won a few games against major-conference teams. Plus Davidson's offense will create problems for JSU.

Sam Houston -13.7
Delaware -9.4
Jacksonville State -15.2
North Dakota -12.6
VMI +29.1
South Dakota -19.2
Weber -14.9
North Dakota State +1.9

I wet the bed on these picks ...

SDSU -24
Weber St -4
Delaware -19.5
Jacksonville State -21
JMU -14.5
Mo St +5.5 (Mo St wins outright)
EWU +7 (EWU wins outright)
Monmouth +9.5