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SD, you're the best in the Sky at things like this, so could you please clarify?

Odds are, there will be an 8-0 tie in the Sky for the Championship and the auto-bid. It could ALSO be a 7-1 tie. The other possibilities are Sac wins Causeway, while MT State loses the Brawl, which will give Sac the auto-bid outright, or Sac loses Causeway and MT State wins the Brawl, which would give MT State the auto-bid. Let's eliminate those because they're obvious (not to mention not likely).

A tie will be a headache. The first tiebreaker is always H2H, which is meaningless this year because Sac and MT State don't play each other. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. There are no common OOC opponents, and since Sac and MT State are likely to be undefeated (or in the least likely scenario, will have a 5-1 record against common opponents, which are Cal Poly, UNC, EWU, UM, Weber State, and UC Davis. Traditionally, isn't the next tiebreaker point differential against common opponents, or something like that? Going into the final week, Sac leads there +110 to +83. Just one problem: the last time I can find that the Big Sky put out a thing on this was 2014, when they said the tiebreakers were:

1. H2H
2. Record against common CONFERENCE opponents in descending order.
3. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents.
4. Sagarin Rating.
5. Coin Flip.

Not only is this confusing, is it fair? So, H2H is meaningless. Record against common CONFERENCE opponents is equal. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents is meaningless. Sagarin Rating? The current list places Sac at #70 (behind #69 Fresno State and #71 Arizona) and MT State at #112 (behind #111 UT State and #113 C. Michigan). This sounds fishy to me, as MT State is WAY better than that.

So, under this scenario, Sac has the upper hand. Match MT State in the rivalry game or win while they lose. The only way we lose is to lose Causeway while MT State wins the Brawl. But wouldn't some sort of point differential be better? Has anybody, like SD, found anything more up-to-date? This is REALLY weird....

It SHOCKS me that a conference with an awful, unbalanced conference schedule would also have an awful autobid tie-breaker system.

Since the BSC is unbalanced, I would rather have the #2 seed than the auto bid. You beat Davis you have that locked up no matter what happens in the Brawl.

canyoncat wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:42 am Since the BSC is unbalanced, I would rather have the #2 seed than the auto bid. You beat Davis you have that locked up no matter what happens in the Brawl.

Yep. Seeding makes AQ’s irrelevant except for bragging rights and pennants.

kalm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:20 am

canyoncat wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:42 am Since the BSC is unbalanced, I would rather have the #2 seed than the auto bid. You beat Davis you have that locked up no matter what happens in the Brawl.

Yep. Seeding makes AQ’s irrelevant except for bragging rights and pennants.

Doesn't even matter for pennants. Both teams would still be conference champions. It's just a matter of whether you're sole champion or co-champion. Auto-berth is meaningless in the Big Sky.

canyoncat wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:42 am Since the BSC is unbalanced, I would rather have the #2 seed than the auto bid. You beat Davis you have that locked up no matter what happens in the Brawl.

True, but if MT State wins the Brawl and we lose Causeway, you get the auto-bid, and presumably a higher seed. Our FBS win will have something to say about that, but recent work might well dilute that influence. You DO have more to play for in the Brawl than mere bragging rights, though you will always have THAT when it comes to the Brawl....