FCS Football | Message Board | News
https://championshipsubdivision.com/forums/
https://championshipsubdivision.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=53611
That's laughable. Montana is good. Do they win? Maybe. But I think a 2TD spread in favor of SD State is a stretch....Bobcat wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:21 am If Montana plays an absolutely perfect game and has no turn over maybe they can keep this game within 3 TDs, if not it will get out of hand real fast.
SDSU beat Albany 59-0 and the Griz needed 2 OTs to beat a really bad injured NDSU team. NDSU got worked by SDSU this game wont be that close.
Yep. Montana already has the record for most title-game losses (5), and—if the Griz lose this one—Hauck would have as many losses by himself as the #2 team in that category (Marshall).
NDSU improved over the season, and was a better team against Montana than against SDSU. That being said, the Griz will need help from SDSU mistakes to win this game.SuperHornet wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:46 amThat's laughable. Montana is good. Do they win? Maybe. But I think a 2TD spread in favor of SD State is a stretch....Bobcat wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:21 am If Montana plays an absolutely perfect game and has no turn over maybe they can keep this game within 3 TDs, if not it will get out of hand real fast.
SDSU beat Albany 59-0 and the Griz needed 2 OTs to beat a really bad injured NDSU team. NDSU got worked by SDSU this game wont be that close.
If I was to bet, I’d take South Dakota State to cover…. Ya gotta know who you’re dealing with hereGil Dobie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 8:15 amNDSU improved over the season, and was a better team against Montana than against SDSU. That being said, the Griz will need help from SDSU mistakes to win this game.SuperHornet wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:46 am
That's laughable. Montana is good. Do they win? Maybe. But I think a 2TD spread in favor of SD State is a stretch....
Seems high compared to JMU’s and a couple of NDSU runs.Mvemjsunpx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 8:15 pm South Dakota State is currently ranked #18 in the Sagarins among all DI teams. Has an FCS team ever ranked that high before?
(The Griz are currently #66)
I don't know about their MOV calculation, but those other teams you mentioned had some massive margins too (like 2016 JMU's 65-7 quarterfinal win over SHSU).kalm wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:23 pmSeems high compared to JMU’s and a couple of NDSU runs.Mvemjsunpx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 8:15 pm South Dakota State is currently ranked #18 in the Sagarins among all DI teams. Has an FCS team ever ranked that high before?
(The Griz are currently #66)
How heavy does Sagarin rate margin of victory?
NDSU was 17 in 2013, and 19 in 2018. Both NDSU and JMU were typically in the 30s other years.kalm wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:23 pmSeems high compared to JMU’s and a couple of NDSU runs.Mvemjsunpx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 8:15 pm South Dakota State is currently ranked #18 in the Sagarins among all DI teams. Has an FCS team ever ranked that high before?
(The Griz are currently #66)
How heavy does Sagarin rate margin of victory?
Agreed.Mvemjsunpx wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 1:01 amI don't know about their MOV calculation, but those other teams you mentioned had some massive margins too (like 2016 JMU's 65-7 quarterfinal win over SHSU).
That ranking is probably a little high, but I do think this SDSU squad—if they win the title—will rank as one of the top-5 I-AA/FCS teams of all time. They're basically an 8-win Power-5 team, IMO.
Well, the Sagarins are always interesting, and we love seeing our teams up toward the top of them, but they're hardly infallible. For example, they still have MSU higher than the Griz even though the Griz waxed the Bobcats by 30 this year. Not sure the algorithm is all that accurate or should be take too seriously, to be honest. It's way too heavily weighted to strength of schedule, from what I can tell.
Even though they claim otherwise (I think), the Sagarins just don't seem to totally eliminate the influence of previous seasons. I'm guessing the Bobcats are higher than the Griz simply because they were the better team last year.CrunchGriz wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:25 pmWell, the Sagarins are always interesting, and we love seeing our teams up toward the top of them, but they're hardly infallible. For example, they still have MSU higher than the Griz even though the Griz waxed the Bobcats by 30 this year. Not sure the algorithm is all that accurate or should be take too seriously, to be honest. It's way too heavily weighted to strength of schedule, from what I can tell.
CrunchGriz wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:25 pmWell, the Sagarins are always interesting, and we love seeing our teams up toward the top of them, but they're hardly infallible. For example, they still have MSU higher than the Griz even though the Griz waxed the Bobcats by 30 this year. Not sure the algorithm is all that accurate or should be taken too seriously, to be honest. It's way too heavily weighted to strength of schedule, from what I can tell.
I like Massey more than Sagarin and this prediction seems very reasonable.Caribbean Hen wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:20 am Massey
# 21 South Dakota State
# 61 Montana
31-17 is the prediction on final score
Griz by 20kalm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:14 amI like Massey more than Sagarin and this prediction seems very reasonable.Caribbean Hen wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:20 am Massey
# 21 South Dakota State
# 61 Montana
31-17 is the prediction on final score
