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Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2024 11:26 am
by kalm
All of the top 5 raked teams have at least one game remaining against a top 10 or top 5 opponent. NDSU faces two in South Dakota and Missouri State.
Speaking of the Bears, Montana’s win against them almost assures the Griz of an at large/lower seed assuming they lose to the Cats.
4 CAA, a UAC, a SoCon, and an OVC with two losses (Mercer still faces Alabama) and weaker SoS are vying for higher seeds.
Can NAU get in at 8-4 with a DII win?
Love these last few weeks.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2024 4:04 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
I'm not sure the Griz should still be higher than Missouri State at this point, despite the H2H win. I assume UM is going to lose in Bozeman, so making the playoffs is all about holding serve against PSU at home.
The bubble looks to be weaker than normal this year, so I think NAU is pretty much a lock at 8-4. No chance if they drop a game, though. I wouldn't guarantee they win out, either, since EWU is tough and the 'Jacks have lost 5 straight in Greeley.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2024 5:07 pm
by kalm
Mvemjsunpx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 4:04 pm
I'm not sure the Griz should still be higher than Missouri State at this point, despite the H2H win. I assume UM is going to lose in Bozeman, so making the playoffs is all about holding serve against PSU at home.
The bubble looks to be weaker than normal this year, so I think NAU is pretty much a lock at 8-4. No chance if they drop a game, though. I wouldn't guarantee they win out, either, since EWU is tough and the 'Jacks have lost 5 straight in Greeley.
NAU also had a DII on the schedule. But the given their SoS compared to other bubble teams, (CAA, SoCon) they would deserve it.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2024 7:01 pm
by SeattleGriz
Been wanting to take my daughter to a Griz game. Looks like Griz will probably be an at large team and get a first round home game. Thanksgiving weekend, so probably could get tickets pretty easily. Hmmm.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2024 7:26 pm
by kalm
SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 7:01 pm
Been wanting to take my daughter to a Griz game. Looks like Griz will probably be an at large team and get a first round home game. Thanksgiving weekend, so probably could get tickets pretty easily. Hmmm.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 10:20 am
by 89Hen
Montana State
UC Davis
Idaho
Montana
Southeast Missouri State
Richmond
Rhode Island
Villanova
Stony Brook
New Hampshire
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
South Dakota
Missouri State
Illinois State
Duquesne
Lehigh
Drake
Mercer
Incarnate Word
Abilene Christian
Tarleton State
Eastern Kentucky
Second Big South-OVC team... which is impossible to figure out which one. TTech beat UT Martin and TSU but have more losses than either.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:21 am
by kalm
89Hen wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 10:20 am
Montana State
UC Davis
Idaho
Montana
Southeast Missouri State
Richmond
Rhode Island
Villanova
Stony Brook
New Hampshire
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
South Dakota
Missouri State
Illinois State
Duquesne
Lehigh
Drake
Mercer
Incarnate Word
Abilene Christian
Tarleton State
Eastern Kentucky
Second Big South-OVC team... which is impossible to figure out which one. TTech beat UT Martin and TSU but have more losses than either.
Good list.
Missouri State is not playoff eligible. Because of this I think NAU (DII hurts but high in Massey and SoS), UTM, the 5th CAA, and even a couple of 7-5’s if there are final week upsets are vying for the last two spots.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:35 am
by JALMOND
I can see the argument against NAU making it. No marquee wins, a weak NAIA non-counter, and no chance for a marquee win in their last game, but their losses have all been close to good teams (Montana, Idaho, UIW and Arizona). I can see them getting in, but I can also see the committee leaving them behind.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:14 pm
by kalm
JALMOND wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:35 am
I can see the argument against NAU making it. No marquee wins, a weak NAIA non-counter, and no chance for a marquee win in their last game, but their losses have all been close to good teams (Montana, Idaho, UIW and Arizona). I can see them getting in, but I can also see the committee leaving them behind.
Yep. I will add that lack of quality wins plague a few of the bubble teams as well as possible seeded teams. EG: UTm has one win against a team with a winning record, one against a 4-7 club, and the rest have 3 or less. UNH is the same with one win against a team with a winning record.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 8:56 am
by Gil Dobie
It will be interesting to see how the seeds come out after yesterday. Last year the committee mentioned record against team in the tournament. Montana St is #1 for sure. #2 will be the big debate.
Versus team the may be in, NDSU 3-1 SDUS, Illinois St, Tennessee St are the wins, Townson & ETSU are bubble teams at 7-5
SDSU 2-1, Incarnate and USD are the wins, SELU is a bubble team at 7-5
USD 2-1, NDSU & Drake, no bubble wins.
Both NDSU and SDSU beat Missouri St who most likely would have been in if they were eligible.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 10:09 am
by UNI88
2024 FCS Playoffs Expert Bracketology: What 24 Teams Make the Cut?
#1 Montana State,11-0, Big Sky
#2 South Dakota, 8-1, Missouri Valley
#3 North Dakota State, 10-1, Missouri Valley
#4 South Dakota State, 9-1, Missouri Valley
#5 UC Davis, 10-1, Big Sky
#6 Idaho, 8-2, Big Sky
#7 Richmond, 10-1, CAA
#8 Mercer, 10-1 SoCon
#9 Incarnate Word, 10-2, Southland
#10 Rhode Island, 10-1, CAA
#11 Illinois State, 9-2, Missouri Valley
#12 Villanova, 9-2, CAA
#13 Abilene Christian, 8-3, UAC
#14 Southeast Missouri State, 9-2, Big South-OVC
#15 Montana, 8-4, Big Sky
#16 Tarleton State, 9-2, UAC
CCSU, 7-3, NEC Auto
Drake, 6-2, Pioneer League Auto
Lehigh, 8-2, Patriot League Auto
Eastern Kentucky, 8-2, UAC
New Hampshire, 8-4, CAA
Northern Arizona, 7-3, Big Sky
Tennessee Tech, 7-3, Big South-OVC
UT Martin, 8-3, Big South-OVC
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 11:12 am
by UNI88
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 12:12 pm
by kalm
And the legend of Marty Scarano lives!
At one point the OVC looked like a one bid league. Now they get two more than the SoCon.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 1:53 pm
by dal4018
89Hen wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 10:20 am
Montana State
UC Davis
Idaho
Montana
Southeast Missouri State
Richmond
Rhode Island
Villanova
Stony Brook
New Hampshire
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
South Dakota
Missouri State
Illinois State
Duquesne
Lehigh
Drake
Mercer
Incarnate Word
Abilene Christian
Tarleton State
Eastern Kentucky
Second Big South-OVC team... which is impossible to figure out which one. TTech beat UT Martin and TSU but have more losses than either.
TENN ST MEETS WITH MONTANA NEXT WEEKEND
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 4:10 pm
by SuperHornet
What's going on at IL State that forces them into a road game when they have the seed?
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 4:11 pm
by SuperHornet
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 4:26 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
Southern Utah got snubbed.
Illinois State shouldn't even be in the field. They beat nobody and got blown out at home by both of the decent FCS teams they faced. They're basically what Richmond was last year.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 5:36 pm
by kalm
Mvemjsunpx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2024 4:26 pm
Southern Utah got snubbed.
Illinois State shouldn't even be in the field. They beat nobody and got blown out at home by both of the decent FCS teams they faced. They're basically what Richmond was last year.
Imagine if they had taken 4 from the UAC.
There are several teams the ISUr resume applies to including NAU.
Kind of surprised they didn’t take a 2nd SoCon but I get why.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 6:21 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
kalm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2024 5:36 pm
Mvemjsunpx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2024 4:26 pm
Southern Utah got snubbed.
Illinois State shouldn't even be in the field. They beat nobody and got blown out at home by both of the decent FCS teams they faced. They're basically what Richmond was last year.
Imagine if they had taken 4 from the UAC.
There are several teams the ISUr resume applies to including NAU.
Kind of surprised they didn’t take a 2nd SoCon but I get why.
Eh, NAU's losses weren't nearly as bad as Illinois State's. ISU was humiliated at home by NDSU and Missouri State, and Missouri State looks like a marginal bubble team now.
The SoCon blew their at-large hopes when Chattanooga & ETSU forgot to show up last week.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 8:12 pm
by kalm
Mvemjsunpx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2024 6:21 pm
kalm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2024 5:36 pm
Imagine if they had taken 4 from the UAC.
There are several teams the ISUr resume applies to including NAU.
Kind of surprised they didn’t take a 2nd SoCon but I get why.
Eh, NAU's losses weren't nearly as bad as Illinois State's. ISU was humiliated at home by NDSU and Missouri State, and Missouri State looks like a marginal bubble team now.
The SoCon blew their at-large hopes when Chattanooga & ETSU forgot to show up last week.
Don’t necessarily disagree. There’s always a difference between who should get in and what the committee does.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2024 3:49 pm
by Bobcat
So NDSU gets either Montana St or South Dakota in the chipper.
That has a nice RING to it.
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2024 8:06 pm
by SuperHornet
That's not exactly guaranteed, Bobcat. There's a pretty good chance of it, though....
Re: Bracketology
Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 7:31 am
by Caribbean Hen
kalm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2024 12:12 pm
And the legend of Marty Scarano lives!
At one point the OVC looked like a one bid league. Now they get two more than the SoCon.
The Southern Conference should expand by adding about 8 cupcakes, would help those WIN LOSS records
