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I've been using my own system for determining the brackets/playoff teams since 2003, but this is the first time I've posted a bracket publicly. First some disclaimers:

1. These are the teams I think should be in the field & how they should be seeded, not necessarily who I think the committee will choose.
2. This bracket is based what would happen if the playoffs started today. I'm not attempting to predict future games.
3. I use a points system to determine playoff credentials (that's what the "+#" & "-#" next to the teams in the power rankings are). I'll explain the system in my next post.

• Auto-Bid Rankings
  
  1. Northern Iowa (7-0)
  2. Massachusetts (6-1)
  3. McNeese St. (7-0)
  4. Eastern Kentucky (6-2)
  5. Montana (7-0)
  6. Elon (5-2)
  7. Delaware St. (6-1)
  8. Fordham (6-2)
  
  
  At-Large Rankings
  
  1. James Madison (6-1)
  2. New Hampshire (5-2)
  3. Southern Illinois (7-1)
  4. Wofford (6-2)
  5. Norfolk St. (6-1)
  6. Appalachian St. (5-2)
  7. Delaware (6-1)
  8. South Carolina St. (4-3)

• • • • • • • • Bracket
                
                
                Eastern Kentucky (6-2)
                @ (1) Northern Iowa (7-0)
                
                Delaware St. (6-1)
                @ Delaware (6-1)
                
                New Hampshire (5-2)
                @ Appalachian St. (5-2)
                
                Elon (5-2)
                @ (4) McNeese St. (7-0)
                
                South Carolina St. (4-3)
                @ (3) James Madison (6-1)
                
                Wofford (6-2)
                @ Norfolk St. (6-1)
                
                Southern Illinois (7-1)
                @ Montana (7-0)
                
                Fordham (6-2)
                @ (2) Massachusetts (6-1)

• Bids by conference:
  
  4 - CAA
  3 - MEAC, SoCon
  2 - Gateway
  1 - Big Sky, Southland, OVC, Patriot

Playoff Power Rankings
(Bold - Denotes Auto-Bid)
(15. Team - Denotes At-Large cutoff line)

1. Northern Iowa (7-0) +14
2. Massachusetts (6-1) +11
3. James Madison (6-1) +10
4. McNeese St. (7-0) +9
5. New Hampshire (5-2) +8
6. Eastern Kentucky (6-2) +7
7. Southern Illinois (7-1) +7
8. Wofford (6-2) +8
9. Montana (7-0) +7
10. Norfolk St. (6-1) +6
11. Appalachian St. (5-2) +6
12. Elon (5-2) +5
13. Delaware St. (6-1) +4
14. Delaware (6-1) +5
15. South Carolina St. (4-3) +4
16. Hofstra (6-1) +5
17. Richmond (5-2) +4
18. Holy Cross (5-2) +3
19. The Citadel (5-2) +1
20. Georgia Southern (5-2) +1
21. Villanova (4-3) 0
22. Eastern Washington (4-3) +1
23. Montana St. (5-2) +1
24. Jacksonville St. (5-3) 0
25. San Diego (7-0) +1
26. Illinois St. (4-4) -1
27. Youngstown St. (5-3) +1
28. Nicholls St. (5-2) 0
29. Hampton (4-3) 0
30. Western Illinois (5-3) -1
31. Furman (3-4) -1
32. Dayton (7-1) 0
33. William & Mary (4-3) -2
34. Northern Arizona (5-3) -1
35. Albany (4-3) -3
36. Fordham (6-2) -2
37. Eastern Illinois (5-3) -2
38. Cal Poly (4-3) -4
39. Central Connecticut St. (5-2) -3
40. Lehigh (3-4) -4
41. Gardner-Webb (3-4) -5
42. Morehead St. (5-2) -3
43. Colgate (4-3) -5
44. Lafayette (4-3) -5
45. Morgan St. (4-4) -7
46. Wagner (5-2) -6
47. Duquesne (5-2) -6
48. Portland St. (2-5) -7
49. Tennessee St. (3-4) -8
50. Austin Peay (5-3) -7
51. Tennessee-Chattanooga (2-5) -7
52. Georgetown (1-7) -18

First, how I select the teams to be listed & analyzed:

• 1. Any ineligible team (Ivy, SWAC, or transitional) is excluded.
  2. Any eligible team that can get to 7 D-I wins is included.
  3. Any other eligible playoff conference team that has a reasonable chance of winning an auto-bid is included.
  4. For playoff conferences, I don't skip in the conference standings, so eligible illegitimate teams that are ahead in the standings of legitimate teams are included (that's why Portland State & Georgetown are in the rankings).

Now, how the +/- system works:

• 1. Wins are worth anywhere from 0 to +3
  2. Losses are worth anywere from 0 to -3
  3. Lower-division wins are automatically worth 0, lower-division losses are automatically worth -3
  4. Rough guide for FBS wins:
  
  • • +3 - Any win over an mediocre-or-better FBS; A non-close win over a bad FBS;
      +2 - A close win over a bad FBS; Any win over a terrible FBS
  5. Rough guide for FBS losses:
  
  • • -1 - A blowout loss to a mediocre FBS; A convincing loss to a bad FBS; Any loss to a terrible FBS
      0 - Any loss to an average-or-better FBS; A non-blowout loss to a mediocre FBS; A fairly close loss to a bad FBS
  6. Rough guide for FCS wins:
  
  • • +3 - Any win over a playoff-caliber team; A convincing win over a good-but-not-great team
      +2 - A fairly close win over a good-but-not-great team; A convincing win over an average-or-slightly-above team
      +1 - A fairly close win over an average-or-slightly-above team; Any win over a mediocre team; A non-close win over a bad team
      0 - A close win over a bad team; Any win over a terrible team
  7. Rough guide for FCS losses:
  
  • • -3 - Any blowout FCS loss; A convincing loss to a good-but-not-great team; Any loss to an average-or-slightly-above team or worse
      -2 - A convincing (but non-blowout) loss to a playoff-caliber team; A fairly close loss to a good-but-not-great team
      -1 - A fairly close loss to a playoff-caliber team
      0 - (Not possible for FCS losses)
  8. Being at home or on the road may be used as a mitigating factor for determining the caliber of the opponent &/or whether a game was close/convincing/blowout/etc.

A rough guide to the tiebreakers used:

• 1. Tiebreakers may be used if teams' +/- scores are close enough in order to determine playoff credential ranking.
  2. Tiebreakers can at most overcome a 3 point difference between teams in the +/-.
  3. Definition of tiebreakers:
  • Major tiebreakers - Head-to-head win/loss; Can/can't get 7 D-I wins
    Medium tiebreakers - Number of upper-vs.-lower division games/all D-I schedule; Common games &/or conference record (for conference rankings only)
    Minor tiebreakers - How the team has done lately; GPI ranking
    Final tiebreaker (if necessary) - Overall record by itself
  4. A major tiebreaker must exist for a 3 point deficit to be overcome.
  5. Conference rankings are determined before out-of-conference comparisons are made.

I'll post my bracket prediction/power rankings each week until the end of the regular season, but this is the only time I'll post the explanation of my system unless there's really high demand.

Either your name is RAaaaalph, or you are high. GSU is playoff bound, Smokey.

I woold venture to say your system is probably as good as the selection committees!

uncfootballrules wrote:I woold venture to say your system is probably as good as the selection committees!

Is that a compliment or an insult?

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

uncfootballrules wrote:I woold venture to say your system is probably as good as the selection committees!

Is that a compliment or an insult?

Yes.

Why is it every bracketologist wannabe wants to send SIU 2000 miles to Montana? Surely there is someone closer we could be matched up with.

I don't picture three MEAC teams making the field.

skinny_uncle wrote:I don't picture three MEAC teams making the field.

Nope.

skinny_uncle wrote:Why is it every bracketologist wannabe wants to send SIU 2000 miles to Montana? Surely there is someone closer we could be matched up with.

Well, it's not quite that far (1350 mi. by air, 1800 mi. drive).

Pretty much any team is closer to SIU than Montana, but the only team closer to Montana is Northern Iowa. I don't see Montana being sent to a seed in the first round unless they're weak, though, & Southern Illinois is the closest of the unseeded teams.

skinny_uncle wrote:I don't picture three MEAC teams making the field.

I don't think it will happen in the end, either, since Delaware St. still has to play both SCSU & Norfolk & most of the other contenders have big, credential-building games left.

However, I think 3 MEAC teams are deserving right now. I think a 4-3 SCSU team with 2 losses to quality FBS'ers is slightly more deserving than Hofstra (who just got blown out), Richmond, or Holy Cross.

C-MON YSU!! Beat UNI to get the Gateway 3 playoff teams!

guinzone wrote:C-MON YSU!! Beat UNI to get the Gateway 3 playoff teams!

This is a critical game for the Penguins. It's pretty much do-or-die time.