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Posted: **Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:17 pm**

Looking at the playoffs this year, it seems many deserving teams might be disappointed as the field is unusually strong. There will probably be at least one strong playoff-caliber team that will be left out & at least one seed-caliber team that will be denied a top-4 seed on Selection Sunday. Here are my bracket's disclaimers:

1. These are the teams I think should be in the field & how they should be seeded, not necessarily who I think the committee will choose.
2. This bracket is based what would happen if the playoffs started today. I'm not attempting to predict future games.
3. I use a points system to determine playoff credentials (that's what the "+#" & "-#" next to the teams in the power rankings are). You can find an explanation of my system in this thread: http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... ?f=4&t=877.

Auto-Bid Rankings

1. Northern Iowa (8-0)
2. Massachusetts (7-1)
3. McNeese St. (8-0)
4. Montana (8-0)
5. Eastern Kentucky (7-2)
6. Delaware St. (7-1)
7. Elon (6-2)
8. Fordham (7-2)

At-Large Rankings

1. Appalachian St. (6-2)
2. Wofford (6-2)
3. Richmond (6-2)
4. James Madison (6-2)
5. New Hampshire (6-2)
6. Delaware (7-1)
7. Southern Illinois (7-1)
8. Villanova (5-3)

- - - - Bracket
        
        New Hampshire (6-2)
        @ (1) Northern Iowa (8-0)
        
        Elon (6-2)
        @ Richmond (6-2)
        
        Delaware St. (7-1)
        @ Delaware (7-1)
        
        James Madison (6-2)
        @ (4) Appalachian St. (6-2)
        
        Eastern Kentucky (7-2)
        @ (3) McNeese St. (8-0)
        
        Southern Illinois (7-1)
        @ Montana (8-0)
        
        Wofford (6-2)
        @ Villanova (5-3)
        
        Fordham (7-2)
        @ (2) Massachusetts (7-1)

Bids by conference:

6 - CAA
3 - SoCon
2 - Gateway
1 - Big Sky, Southland, OVC, Patriot, MEAC

Playoff Power Rankings
Here you can see where your team stands, and where they may move based on this week's results.
(Bold - Denotes Auto-Bid)
(15. Team - Denotes At-Large cutoff line)

1. Northern Iowa (7-0) +15
2. Massachusetts (6-1) +13
3. McNeese St. (8-0) +10
4. Appalachian St. (6-2) +10
5. Montana (8-0) +10
6. Eastern Kentucky (7-2) +8
7. Wofford (6-2) +9
8. Delaware St. (7-1) +8
9. Richmond (6-2) +7
10. James Madison (6-2) +8
11. New Hampshire (6-2) +9
12. Delaware (7-1) +8
13. Elon (6-2) +8
14. Southern Illinois (7-1) +7
15. Villanova (5-3) +6
16. Holy Cross (6-2) +5
17. Georgia Southern (6-2) +5
18. Hofstra (6-2) +5
19. Norfolk St. (6-2) +3
20. South Carolina St. (4-4) +3
21. Eastern Washington (5-3) +1
22. Dayton (8-1) +2
23. Jacksonville St. (5-3) 0
24. Eastern Illinois (6-3) 0
25. The Citadel (5-3) 0
26. William & Mary (4-4) -1
27. Fordham (7-2) -1
28. Western Illinois (6-3) -1
29. San Diego (7-1) 0
30. Colgate (5-3) -2
31. Cal Poly (5-3) -2
32. Albany (5-3) -2
33. Lehigh (4-4) -2
34. Montana St. (5-3) -2
35. Northern Arizona (5-4) -1
36. Hampton (4-4) -3
37. Gardner-Webb (4-4) -5
38. Morehead St. (6-2) -3
39. Morgan St. (5-4) -6
40. Austin Peay (5-3) -6
41. Lafayette (4-4) -8
42. Duquesne (5-3) -9
43. Wagner (5-3) -9

Posted: **Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:15 pm**

I'm going to assume that list only includes teams that have or still can get to the magic #7 Division-I wins?

Posted: **Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:44 pm**

GeauxColonels wrote:I'm going to assume that list only includes teams that have or still can get to the magic #7 Division-I wins?

For the most part, yes. It will include anyone else (that's eligible) that has a realistic shot at an auto bid. Also, I don't skip in the playoff-conference standings, so you might see some undeserving teams on the list from time-to-time if they're ahead of a deserving team in the standings (like NAU, who's ahead of EWU & Montana State in the Big Sky).

Posted: **Sat Nov 03, 2007 6:06 am**

Strange that SIU dropped seven spots in the power rankings with a bye week.

Posted: **Sat Nov 03, 2007 6:09 am**

6. Rough guide for FCS wins:

+3 - Any win over a playoff-caliber team; A convincing win over a good-but-not-great team
+2 - A fairly close win over a good-but-not-great team; A convincing win over an average-or-slightly-above team
+1 - A fairly close win over an average-or-slightly-above team; Any win over a mediocre team; A non-close win over a bad team
0 - A close win over a bad team; Any win over a terrible team

7. Rough guide for FCS losses:

-3 - Any blowout FCS loss; A convincing loss to a good-but-not-great team; Any loss to an average-or-slightly-above team or worse
-2 - A convincing (but non-blowout) loss to a playoff-caliber team; A fairly close loss to a good-but-not-great team
-1 - A fairly close loss to a playoff-caliber team
0 - (Not possible for FCS losses)

Why do blowout losses affect your rating if blowout wins do not?

Posted: **Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:18 pm**

skinny_uncle wrote:
6. Rough guide for FCS wins:

+3 - Any win over a playoff-caliber team; A convincing win over a good-but-not-great team
+2 - A fairly close win over a good-but-not-great team; A convincing win over an average-or-slightly-above team
+1 - A fairly close win over an average-or-slightly-above team; Any win over a mediocre team; A non-close win over a bad team
0 - A close win over a bad team; Any win over a terrible team

7. Rough guide for FCS losses:

-3 - Any blowout FCS loss; A convincing loss to a good-but-not-great team; Any loss to an average-or-slightly-above team or worse
-2 - A convincing (but non-blowout) loss to a playoff-caliber team; A fairly close loss to a good-but-not-great team
-1 - A fairly close loss to a playoff-caliber team
0 - (Not possible for FCS losses)
Why do blowout losses affect your rating if blowout wins do not?

Remember, a blowout qualifies as "convincing".

Also, a playoff contender getting blown out by any FCS team looks really bad.

Posted: **Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:08 pm**

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
skinny_uncle wrote: Why do blowout losses affect your rating if blowout wins do not?

Remember, a blowout qualifies as "convincing".

Also, a playoff contender getting blown out by any FCS team looks really bad.

Gee.
That really cleared things up.

Posted: **Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:52 pm**

A Montana/SoIllinois is an intriguing first round matchup you have there.. and a dangerous one at that!

Posted: **Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:30 pm**

Gee.
That really cleared things up.

I'm not sure exactly what kind of explanation you're looking for, but here goes:

It's true that I didn't really differentiate between a "blowout win" & a "convincing win" while I did differentiate between the two for losses to some extent, but I think that's fair. For a playoff contending team, a blowout loss (to any non-FBS) can have a dramatic effect on that teams credentials. Even if it's to a top-flight FCS team, a blowout basically indicates that the losing team didn't show up &/or wasn't good enough to compete with the winning team that day. On the other hand, I don't think blowing out a mediocre team is worth anymore than just beating a mediocre team because it still doesn't make the schedule look stronger & mediocre teams are often wildly inconsistent.

I'll give a couple examples of how a team got their particular +/- score: (this does not include the results from 11/3)

- - Southern Illinois
    
    0 - W vs Quincy (59-14)
    +2 - W @ Northern Illinois (34-31)
    +1 - W @ Southern Utah (44-10)
    +1 - W vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff (58-3)
    0 - W @ Indiana St. (72-10)
    +2 - W vs Youngstown St. (24-17)
    -1 - L @ Northern Iowa (24-30)
    +2 - Missouri St. (45-10)
    0 - BYE
    
    Total: +7
    
    Appalachian St.
    
    +3 - W @ Michigan (34-32)
    0 - W vs Lenoir-Rhyne (48-7)
    +2 - W vs Northern Arizona (34-21)
    -1 - L @ Wofford (31-42)
    +3 - W @ Elon (49-32)
    +2 - W vs. Gardner-Webb (45-7)
    0 - BYE
    -1 - L vs Georgia Southern (35-38)
    +2 - W @ Furman (34-27)
    
    Total: +10

Posted: **Sun Nov 04, 2007 12:52 pm**

If I am following this right, SIU would get 2 points for beating a "good-but-not-great" WIU team this week. Right?

Posted: **Sun Nov 04, 2007 3:14 pm**

skinny_uncle wrote:If I am following this right, SIU would get 2 points for beating a "good-but-not-great" WIU team this week. Right?

Probably. Western Illinois was a -1 & they should fall to -2 after this loss if nothing else changes (though they won't be on the list anymore). I generally consider -2 a "good-but-not-great".

Posted: **Sun Nov 04, 2007 5:38 pm**

How can you leave out Georgia Southern?

Posted: **Sun Nov 04, 2007 8:25 pm**

OpieGSU wrote:How can you leave out Georgia Southern?

Well, he obviously has Elon winning the conference, it looks like to him, Wofford and ASU have better resumes. I certainly agree that the SoCon will not get 4 teams in and I think GSU or Elon will be the odd man out

Posted: **Sun Nov 04, 2007 9:29 pm**

The SoCon is a 4 bid conference, my man.
Not sure why you don't think that will happen. (Unless you think that the foursome will not win out.)

There are two weeks to go though, and I am certainly not counting Furman and Colorado State as wins yet. My Eagles have a tough 2 game stretch here, that will determine the outcome of this so far magical season.

Posted: **Sun Nov 04, 2007 10:03 pm**

For the last two posters, remember that this is based on what would happen if the playoffs started now (or, more accurately for this particular bracket, last week), not how it might pan out at the end of the season. I'm making no effort to predict future games in my bracket; that's a completely different kind of endeavor. It's just a look at where the teams currently stand & what the bracket should look like with that information. The power rankings also serve as a rough guide to what each team must do or what kind of help they need to have a chance at making the field.

Posted: **Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:21 pm**

OpieGSU wrote:The SoCon is a 4 bid conference, my man.
Not sure why you don't think that will happen. (Unless you think that the foursome will not win out.)

There are two weeks to go though, and I am certainly not counting Furman and Colorado State as wins yet. My Eagles have a tough 2 game stretch here, that will determine the outcome of this so far magical season.

That early season loss to UTC will come back and haunt you IMO

Posted: **Mon Nov 05, 2007 8:05 am**

If the top 4 teams in the SoCon all win out, you have a whole crop of 8-3 teams. I could see all of them getting in. Some of it may depend on how the CAA plays out.There are schools in the CAA who could play themselves out of contention, especially with some of the results from last weekend. UNH is close to the brink of elimination.

Posted: **Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:00 pm**

AppGuy04 wrote:That early season loss to UTC will come back and haunt you IMO

What?! Wishful thinking, friend.
We've beaten 4 teams in the top 25, and if we win next week we are tied for 1st in the Socon. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. The SoCon would not be the first league to get 4 teams in, btw.
Sorry to break it to you, but if we beat Furman, we are in.

Posted: **Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:52 pm**

Deguy62 wrote:One problem with your bracket. As it stands now, University of Delaware beats out UMASS for the CAA automatice bid. Agree that both will be in the playoffs, just disagree on the autobid. Delaware holds the tie-breakers in conference.

This was last week's bracket.

I'll post this week's no later than Thursday.

Posted: **Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:39 pm**

skinny_uncle wrote:If the top 4 teams in the SoCon all win out, you have a whole crop of 8-3 teams. I could see all of them getting in. Some of it may depend on how the CAA plays out.There are schools in the CAA who could play themselves out of contention, especially with some of the results from last weekend. UNH is close to the brink of elimination.

Look at the top 16 teams. 4 of them are SoCon teams.

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