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Hey all, just found the site. Just for fun, and to start debates, here's my own personal predictions for the playoff teams this year. For full disclosure, I'm a Delaware fan, but I tried to minimize any CAA preference. My Delaware pick for conference champion is, of course, obligatory

2007 Playoff Predictions:

16 Slots; 8 Automatic:

Conference Winners/Automatic Bids (Prediction):

Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Delaware
Gatway: UNI
MEAC: Winner of Del State/Norfolk State Game
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Fordham
Southern: Wofford
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large Bids:

Big Sky:

Big Sky is usually a lock for at least 2 bids, but this year only Montana is assured of a slot. Montana State’s loss today puts them at 4 losses with 2 games to go, including Montana. I think they’ll lose that one to put them out of contention, but if they win look for strong bid consideration based on history. The winner of E. Washington and N. Arizona will get a bid, I think, but only E Washington wins out (it’s the last game of the year for NAU).

Prediction: N. Arizona at-large bid

CAA:

Before this week, I thought the conference had an outside chance at 5 bids, but UNH and UMass ended that (actually Hurricane Noel ended that; I live in the NE, winds were nasty today for those heavy passing teams). I can’t see it falling past 4 though, on the strength of their nonconference record and two wins over FBS competition (Navy game = awesome, I was there) Delaware’s not that good, but if they beat Richmond they can clinch the South. JMU has given up 8 TOs in the past two games and lost by a combined 4 pts. UNH with 3 conference losses is out of it unless they destroy (DESTROY) UMass next week; their conference schedule was really unfair this year. UMass could drop three straight; their signature game so far is a 10 pt loss to BC. Hofstra isn’t very good but could sneak in on the basis of a weak schedule. Similarly, Villanova might get in if they win out. This and Southern are both really up for grabs; I basically just picked the four teams I think are the best.

Prediction: UMass, JMU, and Richmond get at-large bids

Gateway:

I know it’s a pro-Gateway board, and fortunately for me slings and arrows can’t come through the series of tubes that make up the internet. UNI and SIU are obvious locks – hopefully they won’t revenge themselves on Delaware in the playoffs for 2003. Western Illinois and Youngstown St. both have four losses, and I don’t think they will make the cut. I hope Western Illinois does; only losses to top 5 FCS teams and Illinois? They deserve to go, but fate is cruel.

Prediction: Southern Illinois at-large bid

MEAC:

No at-large bids for this largely terrible conference. The winner of the Delaware St. – Norfolk St. game will get in to the playoffs.

Prediction: No at-large bids

Ohio Valley:

I probably know the least about OVC of the auto-bid conferences, but just from win-loss records, I don’t expect any teams to get in in what appears to be a weak conference. I’ll defer to people with more knowledge though.

Prediction: No at-large bids.

Patriot:

Fordham’s win today over Holy Cross clinches the Patriot title for them. Holy Cross has had a good year, but the Patriot league hasn’t been very good compared to previous years, with traditional powers Lehigh, Lafayette, and Colgate struggling.

Prediction: No at-large bids.

Southern:

I thought picking playoff teams out of the CAA was tough; at least there’s some separation at the top there. Southern boasts 5 teams with playoff aspirations. Citadel won’t make the cut. App State and Wofford should win out and get in (App State largely on the strength of that Michigan win and winning the title the last 2 years). Elon and Georgia Southern have non-pushover games to go, but GSU’s game v. Colorado St. probably won’t affect anything. I think Elon’s 3OT win over GSU gets them the last spot.

Prediction: App State and Elon get at-large bids.

Southland:

McNeese St. is the only team I believe will come out of this conference, but I don’t know that much about it, so I again defer to those out there who know more.

Prediction: No at-large bids.

So 15 down, 1 to go. For my last team, I’d chose from Eastern Washington, Montana St., Hofstra, New Hampshire, Villanova, Western Illinois, Holy Cross, Georgia Southern, and The Citadel. Lots of good choices there, but I have to go with Western Illinois. Gateway as a conference deserves 3 bids, and Western Illinois has only lost to the absolute best teams. They shouldn’t be penalized for scheduling NDSU and Illinois. On the other hand, I think the committee won't want to leave Big Sky with only 2 bids and for whatever reason they keep giving the Patriot league 2 bids. GSU has a tremendous case too, but I think Western Illinois's schedule will carry them. BUT, if GSU beats Colorado St, they're in.

There are a lot of good teams out there this year, but as a CAA guy, I want to say a word about my conference. We had 7 teams in the top 25 to start the week. That’s more teams than the Big South, Great West, and MAAC, and as many as in Northeast, Gateway, and Patriot. Oh, and 5 in the top 15. Although all the big conferences get short-changed, I think the CAA gets hurt the most this year. Anyway enough of that, time to sum up (with seeds, just for fun):

Playoff Bound:
Seeds
1) Northern Iowa
2) Montana
3) Southern Illinois
4) McNeese St. (I hate McNeese St.)
Other home teams in the first round (abc order)
App State
Delaware
UMass
Wofford
Final Eight:
Delaware State
Eastern Kentucky
Elon
Fordham
JMU
Northern Arizona
Richmond
Western Illinois

Have fun. I apologize if I inadvertently slighted any teams, especially from Southland and OVC. Its hard to keep track of all the 1-AA teams (FCS is a stupid name). Anyone else have any ideas?

Oh, and Omar Cuff is getting the Walter Payton. 31 touchdowns in 9 games, tying the 1-AA record. Oh, and that record was set by Richardson (I think) of App State last year. In 16 games. 9<16. Yeah. Um. Winner.

Sounds pretty well thought out. But one deserving team is missing: Liberty. I believe they're making the Final Four.

Also, given the loss today by U-MISS, I have a hard time seeing a B(C)$ winner not getting a seed. I think Appy sneaks back in for a seed.

Calling the MEAC a "largely terrible conference" shows that you really haven't been paying attention.

I also think you're forgetting the 7 Division-I wins rule:
You have NAU in the field, yet they have no chance because they can't get 7 D-I wins.
You also have Montana State as a contender, but they now can't get to 7 D-I wins, either.

You are right that the OVC is essentially a 1-bid league, though Jacksonville State/Eastern Illinois might have an outside chance.
The Southland is certainly a one-bid league, as McNeese is the only team that can get 7 D-I wins (Central Arkansas is ineligible).


And, for SuperHornet, Liberty can't get to 7 Division-I wins so they have no chance at the playoffs, either, much less the Final Four.

Good points; you're right, I wasn't aware of that rule. I was probably out of bounds on my MEAC comments; I only have the only MEAC game I got a chance to watch, a sloppy DSU-SC State game last week, and Sagarin's conference ratings to work with. I guess I'd replace Northern Arizona with Eastern Washington, but if they drop a game, then I'd think GSU or maybe Hofstra would be the front-runners for the last spot.

Also apologies; I would have posted this in your thread to consolidate, but didn't see it until just now.

Eastern Washington has to play Northern Arizona on the road and then is at home to Weber State, who has started scoring points like crazy the last couple of weeks. EWU could win both of those and get in or lose them both and drop off the radar screen altogether. I suspect they'll lose at least one of those and miss the playoffs, giving the Big Sky only one team in the playoffs.

DogandPonyShow wrote:Good points; you're right, I wasn't aware of that rule. I was probably out of bounds on my MEAC comments; I only have the only MEAC game I got a chance to watch, a sloppy DSU-SC State game last week, and Sagarin's conference ratings to work with. I guess I'd replace Northern Arizona with Eastern Washington, but if they drop a game, then I'd think GSU or maybe Hofstra would be the front-runners for the last spot.

Also apologies; I would have posted this in your thread to consolidate, but didn't see it until just now.

No need to apologize. This forum probably needs all the threads it can get until the membership grows some more, anyway.

I think Eastern would be a very dangerous playoff team.. they're capable of anything, but they need to win out to be considered.

Appy will not sneak in for a seed, SH.

Georgia Southern is a VERY good possibility to make the playoffs.. and they too, are looking very good. Shaping up to be a great offseason, and am looking forward to some home playoff games.

DogandPonyShow wrote:I hope Western Illinois does; only losses to top 5 FCS teams and Illinois? They deserve to go, but fate is cruel.

I don't think you'll incur anyone's wrath by saying that WIU (or YSU) won't get in this year. But I hadn't realized that WIU's FCS losses were all to top-5 teams. (well, SIU isn't technically a top-5, but they certainly should be in this week's polls).

If they had played an all-Division I schedule, I'd think they'd be right in the thick of at-large consideration, but one of their wins was over St. Francis, which is an NAIA school I think, thus even with a win over YSU, they'd still only have 6 D-I wins.

Technically, the "7 win" guideline isn't a set-in-stone rule. The committee could select a 6-win at-large, but I don't think it's ever happened, and is not likely this year I don't think. Here is the relevent excerpt from the handbook:

3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents;

Welcome Dog and Pony show!!

NAU and WIU will be sitting at home. Pick a couple of more teams.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:Calling the MEAC a "largely terrible conference" shows that you really haven't been paying attention.

I also think you're forgetting the 7 Division-I wins rule:
You have NAU in the field, yet they have no chance because they can't get 7 D-I wins.
You also have Montana State as a contender, but they now can't get to 7 D-I wins, either.

You are right that the OVC is essentially a 1-bid league, though Jacksonville State/Eastern Illinois might have an outside chance.
The Southland is certainly a one-bid league, as McNeese is the only team that can get 7 D-I wins (Central Arkansas is ineligible).


And, for SuperHornet, Liberty can't get to 7 Division-I wins so they have no chance at the playoffs, either, much less the Final Four.

I hadn't really paid much attention to the OVC this year. The winner of the JSU-EIU game will probably end up 8-3. That could get them in the conversation. The loser is eliminated.

Hey, I hope the MEAc gets representation enough, because I'd love to see DelState come to Newark on T-Giving weekend.

There is still business to be taken care of, but let me tell you folks.........Don't sleep on Georgia Southern. There is a certain spark in Statesboro right now that has not been around in a long time.

Deltapine wrote:There is still business to be taken care of, but let me tell you folks.........Don't sleep on Georgia Southern. There is a certain spark in Statesboro right now that has not been around in a long time.

I think any team strong enough to make the playoffs can put together a run and win it all.

I know that most of you will not even consider the thought, but for that #16 spot, the University of Dayton Flyers should be in the mix. Currently , UD is 9-1, ( 7-1 FCS ), with a win over the Patriot League champion at their field, and a win of the #25 team in the poll on this site, ( San Diego ). If UD defeats Drake on Saturday, they will finish at 10-1, ( 8-1 FCS ).

Poll Summary for Dayton - Week of 11/5/07:

Realtimerpi - #7

College Sports Report - #17

FCS Coaches Poll - #25

Sagarin - #27

AGS - #28

TSN - #29

Don Hansen - #32

SME Broadcaster's Poll - #33, ( San Diego is still ranked at #25 in this poll!! )

Our poll performance is a bit varied, but that is because UD is just starting to come on to many pollsters radar.

The only way Wofford will win the Socon is if GSU, ASU, and Elon all lose one more game. The winner of the Socon will either be GSU or Elon.

*I am a fan of Georgia Southern but that has nothing to do with my comment App St and Wofford all need to much help to win the Confrence

So why on Earth do you hate McNeese State? I guess I would know why if you were a fan of the SLC. But like you said you don't know much about the SLC. Maybe you are a UL-L grad?

Mvemjsunpx wrote:Calling the MEAC a "largely terrible conference" shows that you really haven't been paying attention.

I also think you're forgetting the 7 Division-I wins rule:
You have NAU in the field, yet they have no chance because they can't get 7 D-I wins.
You also have Montana State as a contender, but they now can't get to 7 D-I wins, either.

You are right that the OVC is essentially a 1-bid league, though Jacksonville State/Eastern Illinois might have an outside chance.
The Southland is certainly a one-bid league, as McNeese is the only team that can get 7 D-I wins (Central Arkansas is ineligible).


And, for SuperHornet, Liberty can't get to 7 Division-I wins so they have no chance at the playoffs, either, much less the Final Four.

You may now eat crow. Liberty just sewed up the Big South autobid with a 31-0 win at Gardner-Webb.

SuperHornet wrote:

Mvemjsunpx wrote:Calling the MEAC a "largely terrible conference" shows that you really haven't been paying attention.

I also think you're forgetting the 7 Division-I wins rule:
You have NAU in the field, yet they have no chance because they can't get 7 D-I wins.
You also have Montana State as a contender, but they now can't get to 7 D-I wins, either.

You are right that the OVC is essentially a 1-bid league, though Jacksonville State/Eastern Illinois might have an outside chance.
The Southland is certainly a one-bid league, as McNeese is the only team that can get 7 D-I wins (Central Arkansas is ineligible).


And, for SuperHornet, Liberty can't get to 7 Division-I wins so they have no chance at the playoffs, either, much less the Final Four.

You may now eat crow. Liberty just sewed up the Big South autobid with a 31-0 win at Gardner-Webb.

No he won't. The Big South has no autobid, sorry.

EHHHHHHHHHHHH Rough Year for my Penguins.. Had they just held on to one of those 10-0 leads to UNI-SIU-ILSU, they would be in this field.... Sad to see a team with a GPI of #13 not make it in!!!!! GRRRRRRRRRRRR.

guinzone wrote:EHHHHHHHHHHHH Rough Year for my Penguins.. Had they just held on to one of those 10-0 leads to UNI-SIU-ILSU, they would be in this field.... Sad to see a team with a GPI of #13 not make it in!!!!! GRRRRRRRRRRRR.

You really should have beaten the Deadbirds.