I'm Surprised Nobody's Begun a Playoff Prediction Thread...
Posted: Thu Nov 22, 2007 3:43 pm
...but here goes:
New Hampshire (7-4) @ (#1) Northern Iowa (11-0) - Ricky Santos gets his fourth chance at playoff glory despite a 7-4 record. The Wildcats lost in the quarterfinals each of the previous 3 seasons. Given the matchup, I believe UNH would be ecstatic to get that far this time. However, though both teams have good offenses, only the Panthers know how to play defense. The absolute best New Hamphire can hope for is a shootout... UNI 45, UNH 21
Delaware St. (10-1) @ Delaware (8-3) - A rare Friday morning (at least for us in the western U.S.) contest that ESPN has built up since mid-season. Is it a coincidence the game is on ESPN, and not even the deuce? I think not. In addition to the off the field controversy, this might be the most intriguing football matchup of the first round as well. The Hornets are an enigma: they're 10-0 against FCS despite ranking in the bottom-10 in total offense. I believe that's partly due to their ability to control the clock (fewer total plays), but they still haven't been potent. Delaware's defense is suspect, so I'm guessing the Hornets will gain more than the 285 yards per game they've been averaging. If Delaware State can do a reasonable job on Omar Cuff & control the clock & maybe get a big play or two from WR Shaheer McBride, they will win. Though the Blue Hens have lost 2 in a row, I ultimately don't think the Cuff will be stopped here... UD 27, DSU 20
Fordham (8-3) @ Massachusetts (9-2) - The Minutemen sewed up the CAA auto-bid for the second straight year after beating Richmond in a coin flip. Their offense is solid, if not outstanding, in all facets and the UMass D may be the best in the playoff field. As for the Rams, they lost to Bucknell last week. That's... that's just bad... UMASS 37, FORD 14
Eastern Illinois (8-3) @ (#4) Southern Illinois (10-1) - The Panthers probably shouldn't have made the playoff field. In my playoff rankings, I had Villanova, Norfolk State, & even South Carolina State all ranked ahead of them. However, now that they're here, they have a chance to prove themselves. Or they would, at least, if they weren't playing the Salukis. Southern Illinois made the quarterfinals last year, and they've added a defense & a passing game since then. In fact, Nick Hill has the highest passing efficiency rating of any QB in the playoffs. Add that to their traditionally strong running game & they shouldn't have much trouble with the average-at-best Panther defense. Salukis in a blowout... SIU 48, EIU 17
Wofford (8-3) @ (#3) Montana (11-0) - This is seemingly one of those "unstoppable force vs. unmovable object" type of games: the Terriers' second-ranked rushing attack against the Grizzlies' traditionally stout run-D. However, there are other factors to consider. Montana's offense played their best game of the season last week in Bozeman, as they put up about 500 yards on a quality Bobcat defense. Wofford, like most of their SoCon brethren, has struggled on defense at times this season. They're only average in yards allowed &, perhaps most disturbing, they rank in the bottom-20 in both tackles-for-loss & sacks despite lining up in a 3-4 defense. Oh, did I mention that the Griz are 15-0 against southern teams at home in the playoffs (16-0 if you count Eastern Kentucky as "southern")? Most of those games were routs, too. It's gonna be cold in Missoula... UMT 38, WOFF 14
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) @ Richmond (9-2) - The Colonels, who still share the record with 18 total playoff appearances, make the field for the first time in 10 years. Their stay will likely be short-lived, however, as they play a Richmond squad that is arguably the best team in the insanely tough CAA this year. The Spiders also have RB Tim Hightower, whose 142 ypg average leads all playoff running backs. That doesn't bode well for Eastern Kentucky, who possesses the field's second-worst run defense. Richmond will struggle if they're forced to pass, but that won't happen this time... RICH 44, EKU 24
James Madison (8-3) @ Appalachian St. (9-2) - As we all know, the Mountaineers are the two-time defending National Champions. After their huge upset over Michigan, everyone thought they were virtually guaranteed to win a third. Though they lost two games in SoCon play, Appalachian State still put themselves in position to do just that. Many FCS fans figure they should cruise at home over a JMU team that has lost 2 of their last 4. But, if you look at the matchups, that shouldn't be the case. The Dukes average 261 yards per game on the ground & face the lowest-ranked run defense in the field. James Madison can also pass effectively off the run, as evidenced by QB Rodney Landers' 148.5 efficiency rating. Landers also leads the team in rushing, averaging 104 yards per game. The Dukes also field a good run defense, so, if they can contain Mountaineer QB Armanti Edwards at all, they should win... JMU 38, APPST 27
Eastern Washington (8-3) @ (#2) McNeese St. (11-0) - Eagle coach Paul Wulff should garner a lot of FBS attention in the coming years, if not this offseason. He's led Eastern Washington, the smallest school in the Big Sky, to winning seasons in 7 of his 8 years. The Eagles also rebounded from an 3-8 campaign in 2006 to go 8-3 & make the playoffs, largely thanks to the stellar pass/catch combo of Matt Nichols & Aaron Boyce. The Cowboys are trying to avoid what happened the last time they played a Big Sky team as a top-4 seed: Jason Murietta & the NAU Lumberjacks shredded top-seeded McNeese for a stunning 35-3 win. EWU's offense is potent while the Cowboy defense is strong. McNeese's offense is good & balanced while the Eagle D has been surprisingly effective this season. That leaves special teams. McNeese has quality special teams, while Eastern Washington has the worst unit in the playoffs. That, as well as the home crowd, should make the difference... MCNSE 24, EWU 14
New Hampshire (7-4) @ (#1) Northern Iowa (11-0) - Ricky Santos gets his fourth chance at playoff glory despite a 7-4 record. The Wildcats lost in the quarterfinals each of the previous 3 seasons. Given the matchup, I believe UNH would be ecstatic to get that far this time. However, though both teams have good offenses, only the Panthers know how to play defense. The absolute best New Hamphire can hope for is a shootout... UNI 45, UNH 21
Delaware St. (10-1) @ Delaware (8-3) - A rare Friday morning (at least for us in the western U.S.) contest that ESPN has built up since mid-season. Is it a coincidence the game is on ESPN, and not even the deuce? I think not. In addition to the off the field controversy, this might be the most intriguing football matchup of the first round as well. The Hornets are an enigma: they're 10-0 against FCS despite ranking in the bottom-10 in total offense. I believe that's partly due to their ability to control the clock (fewer total plays), but they still haven't been potent. Delaware's defense is suspect, so I'm guessing the Hornets will gain more than the 285 yards per game they've been averaging. If Delaware State can do a reasonable job on Omar Cuff & control the clock & maybe get a big play or two from WR Shaheer McBride, they will win. Though the Blue Hens have lost 2 in a row, I ultimately don't think the Cuff will be stopped here... UD 27, DSU 20
Fordham (8-3) @ Massachusetts (9-2) - The Minutemen sewed up the CAA auto-bid for the second straight year after beating Richmond in a coin flip. Their offense is solid, if not outstanding, in all facets and the UMass D may be the best in the playoff field. As for the Rams, they lost to Bucknell last week. That's... that's just bad... UMASS 37, FORD 14
Eastern Illinois (8-3) @ (#4) Southern Illinois (10-1) - The Panthers probably shouldn't have made the playoff field. In my playoff rankings, I had Villanova, Norfolk State, & even South Carolina State all ranked ahead of them. However, now that they're here, they have a chance to prove themselves. Or they would, at least, if they weren't playing the Salukis. Southern Illinois made the quarterfinals last year, and they've added a defense & a passing game since then. In fact, Nick Hill has the highest passing efficiency rating of any QB in the playoffs. Add that to their traditionally strong running game & they shouldn't have much trouble with the average-at-best Panther defense. Salukis in a blowout... SIU 48, EIU 17
Wofford (8-3) @ (#3) Montana (11-0) - This is seemingly one of those "unstoppable force vs. unmovable object" type of games: the Terriers' second-ranked rushing attack against the Grizzlies' traditionally stout run-D. However, there are other factors to consider. Montana's offense played their best game of the season last week in Bozeman, as they put up about 500 yards on a quality Bobcat defense. Wofford, like most of their SoCon brethren, has struggled on defense at times this season. They're only average in yards allowed &, perhaps most disturbing, they rank in the bottom-20 in both tackles-for-loss & sacks despite lining up in a 3-4 defense. Oh, did I mention that the Griz are 15-0 against southern teams at home in the playoffs (16-0 if you count Eastern Kentucky as "southern")? Most of those games were routs, too. It's gonna be cold in Missoula... UMT 38, WOFF 14
Eastern Kentucky (9-2) @ Richmond (9-2) - The Colonels, who still share the record with 18 total playoff appearances, make the field for the first time in 10 years. Their stay will likely be short-lived, however, as they play a Richmond squad that is arguably the best team in the insanely tough CAA this year. The Spiders also have RB Tim Hightower, whose 142 ypg average leads all playoff running backs. That doesn't bode well for Eastern Kentucky, who possesses the field's second-worst run defense. Richmond will struggle if they're forced to pass, but that won't happen this time... RICH 44, EKU 24
James Madison (8-3) @ Appalachian St. (9-2) - As we all know, the Mountaineers are the two-time defending National Champions. After their huge upset over Michigan, everyone thought they were virtually guaranteed to win a third. Though they lost two games in SoCon play, Appalachian State still put themselves in position to do just that. Many FCS fans figure they should cruise at home over a JMU team that has lost 2 of their last 4. But, if you look at the matchups, that shouldn't be the case. The Dukes average 261 yards per game on the ground & face the lowest-ranked run defense in the field. James Madison can also pass effectively off the run, as evidenced by QB Rodney Landers' 148.5 efficiency rating. Landers also leads the team in rushing, averaging 104 yards per game. The Dukes also field a good run defense, so, if they can contain Mountaineer QB Armanti Edwards at all, they should win... JMU 38, APPST 27
Eastern Washington (8-3) @ (#2) McNeese St. (11-0) - Eagle coach Paul Wulff should garner a lot of FBS attention in the coming years, if not this offseason. He's led Eastern Washington, the smallest school in the Big Sky, to winning seasons in 7 of his 8 years. The Eagles also rebounded from an 3-8 campaign in 2006 to go 8-3 & make the playoffs, largely thanks to the stellar pass/catch combo of Matt Nichols & Aaron Boyce. The Cowboys are trying to avoid what happened the last time they played a Big Sky team as a top-4 seed: Jason Murietta & the NAU Lumberjacks shredded top-seeded McNeese for a stunning 35-3 win. EWU's offense is potent while the Cowboy defense is strong. McNeese's offense is good & balanced while the Eagle D has been surprisingly effective this season. That leaves special teams. McNeese has quality special teams, while Eastern Washington has the worst unit in the playoffs. That, as well as the home crowd, should make the difference... MCNSE 24, EWU 14