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I have Florida, Michigan St, Baylor and Louisville. Baylor and Michigan in the Championship with Michigan St. winning.

clenz wrote:I've done only two brackets and no matter how much I want to leave MSU out...I can't. It's March, It's Michigan State, it's Tom Izzo....like much like death and taxes it's just going to happen.

I have MSU (though Iowa State could knock them off), Louisville, and Florida in both with Wisconsin/Arizona splitting the other.

I have Florida/Louisville with Louisville winning in both.

AZGrizFan wrote:

clenz wrote:I've done only two brackets and no matter how much I want to leave MSU out...I can't. It's March, It's Michigan State, it's Tom Izzo....like much like death and taxes it's just going to happen.

I have MSU (though Iowa State could knock them off), Louisville, and Florida in both with Wisconsin/Arizona splitting the other.

I have Florida/Louisville with Louisville winning in both.

MSU looked VERY good in dismantling Michigan in their tourney.

tribe_pride wrote:I may be proven wrong but I don't see MSU being as strong as everyone is claiming even with the magician "Izzo". While Izzo has done well in the tourney it's not like he is always magic. Since 2004-2005 he has been in the tourney every year. He has:
Lost in the finals: 1 time
Lost in the Final Four: 1 time
Lost in the Sweet 16: 3 times
Lost in the 2nd round: 1 time
Lost in the 1st round: 2 times

The last 2 years, his teams have been 1 and 3 seeds and they both lost in the Sweet 16.

clenz wrote:

tribe_pride wrote:I may be proven wrong but I don't see MSU being as strong as everyone is claiming even with the magician "Izzo". While Izzo has done well in the tourney it's not like he is always magic. Since 2004-2005 he has been in the tourney every year. He has:
Lost in the finals: 1 time
Lost in the Final Four: 1 time
Lost in the Sweet 16: 3 times
Lost in the 2nd round: 1 time
Lost in the 1st round: 2 times

The last 2 years, his teams have been 1 and 3 seeds and they both lost in the Sweet 16.

Show me one other school with at least 5 S16s since 04-05.

ASUG8 wrote:

clenz wrote: Show me one other school with at least 5 S16s since 04-05.

Duke @ 7
North Carolina @ 6.

tribe_pride wrote:

ASUG8 wrote:
Duke @ 7
North Carolina @ 6.

Louisville @5
Kansas @6
Florida @5
Ohio State @5

Once again, never said he is a bad coach. He is very good and consistently gets his team in the tournament and has contending teams. He just is not as successful as everyone has tried to paint him the last few days.

According to the PASE statistic, Izzo is the second-most overachieving coach in college basketball (behind Butler's Brad Stevens). Stevens however, benefits from having only been in the tournament four times, two of them resulting in the Final Four. Izzo has made 15 trips, and has seven trips to the Elite Eight, six Final Fours and one National Championship. His PASE is +.704.

"In 15 tourney trips, he's beaten expectations at more than a three-quarters-per-game clip. Just as importantly, Izzo has been a reliable overachiever, exceeding seed-projected win totals 10 times in 15 tries.

"No coach with 10 or more trips has beaten expectations with greater regularity than Izzo's 66.7 percent."

In Izzo's 15 straight NCAA Tournament appearances (best in the Big Ten), his teams have averaged roughly a 5 seed (4.9). Since the 1996 NCAA Tournament, 5 seeds have an overall tournament record of 130-112 (.537 winning percentage). According to the data, as the seed rises, so does success. Five seeds since 1996 are 130-112 (.537), 4 seeds have gone 101-67 (.601), 3 seeds 135-65 (.675), 2 seeds 158-66 (.705) and 1 seeds are 229-57 (.801).

Izzo's tournament record over that same 15 years? 37-14 (.725). In other words, his teams may average a 5 seed, but they play like 1/2 seeds. It just isn't supposed to happen that way. And it doesn't outside of East Lansing.

"Teams that reached the Final Four over the past 20 years won their non-conference road games with a collective 132-61 (68.4 percent) record. Compare that to the historical rate at which all teams win non-conference road games, which is 26 percent."

Moral of the story: Don't schedule non-conference road games if you plan on getting to the Final Four. If you do, definitely don't lose them.

Oh wait, unless you're Tom Izzo. Izzo has had six Final Four teams in the past 12 years. Only once (2001) did they have a winning record in non-conference road games. Overall, he's not only scheduled more than average, he lost more of them than average. Izzo's Final Four teams have a combined 6-9 record (40 percent) in non-conference road games. In 2000, his team went 1-3 in non-conference road games. And they went on to win the National Championship. The last 20 National Champions have won 75 percent of the non-conference road games.

So if you are looking for a formula to get to the Final Four, don't follow Izzo's, it's not supposed to work.

http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf ... en_it.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

BDKJMU wrote:Interestting. Of the 9 serious picks so far, 7 have #4 seed L'Ville.

clenz wrote:

tribe_pride wrote:
Louisville @5
Kansas @6
Florida @5
Ohio State @5

Once again, never said he is a bad coach. He is very good and consistently gets his team in the tournament and has contending teams. He just is not as successful as everyone has tried to paint him the last few days.

Average record over that time (including this year) is 26-9

From an article before last years tournament..

According to the PASE statistic, Izzo is the second-most overachieving coach in college basketball (behind Butler's Brad Stevens). Stevens however, benefits from having only been in the tournament four times, two of them resulting in the Final Four. Izzo has made 15 trips, and has seven trips to the Elite Eight, six Final Fours and one National Championship. His PASE is +.704.

"In 15 tourney trips, he's beaten expectations at more than a three-quarters-per-game clip. Just as importantly, Izzo has been a reliable overachiever, exceeding seed-projected win totals 10 times in 15 tries.

"No coach with 10 or more trips has beaten expectations with greater regularity than Izzo's 66.7 percent."

In Izzo's 15 straight NCAA Tournament appearances (best in the Big Ten), his teams have averaged roughly a 5 seed (4.9). Since the 1996 NCAA Tournament, 5 seeds have an overall tournament record of 130-112 (.537 winning percentage). According to the data, as the seed rises, so does success. Five seeds since 1996 are 130-112 (.537), 4 seeds have gone 101-67 (.601), 3 seeds 135-65 (.675), 2 seeds 158-66 (.705) and 1 seeds are 229-57 (.801).

Izzo's tournament record over that same 15 years? 37-14 (.725). In other words, his teams may average a 5 seed, but they play like 1/2 seeds. It just isn't supposed to happen that way. And it doesn't outside of East Lansing.

"Teams that reached the Final Four over the past 20 years won their non-conference road games with a collective 132-61 (68.4 percent) record. Compare that to the historical rate at which all teams win non-conference road games, which is 26 percent."

Moral of the story: Don't schedule non-conference road games if you plan on getting to the Final Four. If you do, definitely don't lose them.

Oh wait, unless you're Tom Izzo. Izzo has had six Final Four teams in the past 12 years. Only once (2001) did they have a winning record in non-conference road games. Overall, he's not only scheduled more than average, he lost more of them than average. Izzo's Final Four teams have a combined 6-9 record (40 percent) in non-conference road games. In 2000, his team went 1-3 in non-conference road games. And they went on to win the National Championship. The last 20 National Champions have won 75 percent of the non-conference road games.

So if you are looking for a formula to get to the Final Four, don't follow Izzo's, it's not supposed to work.

http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf ... en_it.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ASUG8 wrote:

clenz wrote: Show me one other school with at least 5 S16s since 04-05.

Duke @ 7
North Carolina @ 6.

AZGrizFan wrote:

ASUG8 wrote:
Duke @ 7
North Carolina @ 6.

Overachiever. He said show him ONE school.