A Zillion-Dollar Swing on a Coaching Decision?

[SuperHornet]

OK, well not literally. But it was pretty huge.

Seattle was called for some penalty in the end zone on fourth down with less than a minute left last night, leading to a safety call. San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh amazingly DECLINED the penalty (AND the safety), electing to take the turnover on downs. He had what he thought was fairly sound reasoning: this way, he could have quarterback Alex Smith take a knee and kill the game, while the safety would result in a Seattle kickoff from their own 20, which he was certain would be onside, giving the Seahawks a chance to force overtime at 15-up. The Niners won 13-6. (I'm not so certain about his reasoning, because the safety would have put SF up by 9, which would have made it a two-possession game with less than a minute left. Executing an onside free kick, followed by a TD or FG and ANOTHER onside kick and ANOTHER TD or FG is HIGHLY unlikely.)

The weird thing is that bookies stood to lose their @$$es if Harbaugh had taken the safety. A lot of people had placed bets on a 9-pt margin, and the bookies would have had to return that $$ on the push (or won ATS). Additionally, others had the Niners at 7 or 8, bets which would have won.

One little coaching decision had a HUGE impact, and Harbaugh likely knew nothing about it. Wow.

http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId= ... FB&w=1c90d

[BlueHen86]

OK, well not literally. But it was pretty huge.

Seattle was called for some penalty in the end zone on fourth down with less than a minute left last night, leading to a safety call. San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh amazingly DECLINED the penalty (AND the safety), electing to take the turnover on downs. He had what he thought was fairly sound reasoning: this way, he could have quarterback Alex Smith take a knee and kill the game, while the safety would result in a Seattle kickoff from their own 20, which he was certain would be onside, giving the Seahawks a chance to force overtime at 15-up. The Niners won 13-6. (I'm not so certain about his reasoning, because the safety would have put SF up by 9, which would have made it a two-possession game with less than a minute left. Executing an onside free kick, followed by a TD or FG and ANOTHER onside kick and ANOTHER TD or FG is HIGHLY unlikely.)
The weird thing is that bookies stood to lose their @$$es if Harbaugh had taken the safety. A lot of people had placed bets on a 9-pt margin, and the bookies would have had to return that $$ on the push (or won ATS). Additionally, others had the Niners at 7 or 8, bets which would have won.

One little coaching decision had a HUGE impact, and Harbaugh likely knew nothing about it. Wow.

Harbaugh made the right call. Better to run the clock out and not give the other team any chance of coming back. Also, less chance of an injury if you are just taking a knee as opposed to facing an onside kick and maybe having to play defense for a minute.

[JayJ79]

gambling point spreads should have ZERO effect on coaching decisions.

[SuperHornet]

I think your second argument trumps your first, 86. But it's hard to argue with the first one, too. I probably would have taken the safety myself. But in terms of actually winning (and ignoring the Vegas stuff), given the certitude of the one and the high likelihood of the other, whatever decision Harbaugh made probably would have resulted in a win. That's a nice situation to be in.

[BlueHen86]

gambling point spreads should have ZERO effect on coaching decisions.

I'm sure it did in this case.

[BlueHen86]

I think your second argument trumps your first, 86. But it's hard to argue with the first one, too. I probably would have taken the safety myself. But in terms of actually winning (and ignoring the Vegas stuff), given the certitude of the one and the high likelihood of the other, whatever decision Harbaugh made probably would have resulted in a win. That's a nice situation to be in.

If option A gives me a 99.99% chance of winning, and Option B gives me a 99.98% chance of winning, I'm taking Option A, but Option B is good too.