The cars are set up to oversteer...That's the reason for the wing.....and, if you were to punch it, without steering into the slide, you're right, the rear and would come around.....larger outside rear tire, smaller left rear tire.....but, if you advance the video frame by frame, you can see that Stewart turns into the slide right before he guns it...Also, the car jerks to the right, because of the impact with Ward...Steering into the slide and gunning it is how you pull the rear around to the left...
I've played with the video for several hours and loaded a few things into a program called ARAS360HD, which is state of the art when it comes to reconstruction and simulation....I'm hvaing to do it between tasks I actually get paid for, but I'm working on a simulation of where Ward was, on the track, at various times....It's interesting, at the start of the turn, Ward was on the extreme outide and accelerating...his right rear tire was in the dirt at the start of the south turn....He holds that line, while Steward goes into the curve low, and holds his line.....the interesting thing about that turn is that at the start of it, it's 75 feet wide. In the area where the hits the wall, it's roughly 60 feet wide...so the width of the track diminishes by approximately 15 percent....yes, the cars get closer through the turn, but that's in large part because of the turn's narrowing....you can't really say that Stewart put him into the wall....
The other thing....after he exits his vehicle, the kid goes down the track about 10-15 feet, staying behind the line of the car, gets his bearings and then gets out onto the track. 9 vehicles pass the kid while he's still in the car, or standing down track of it....two vehicles interact with him, the #45 car who has to swerve and Stewart's car....Both the 45 car and the 14 car were in oversteer coming out of the turn....though they were going somewhat slow due to the caution...
I used Google Earth to measure the distance between visible objects on the wall in the background, and then counted video frames to determie how fast stewart was going when he made contact....I have him at 29 miles per hour....
There's a technique called Photogrammetry, whereby you can take some known distances in a photo and work out some triangulation to account for the depth of field....
I've eyeballed it, but based on where the kid was standing when he got hit....deeper into the available travel lane than he was when 45 passed, but it looks like he's reduced the usable section of the track down to under 30 feet...
It'll be interesting to see what other video angles are available, but with enough time, and some better images of the Stewart vehicle, I can pretty much give you a cockpit view of Stewart's field of view as he approached the kid...
Here are two views of a ROUGH animation showing the kid's travel in the lane and where he was when he got hit.....It's a conceptual animation, only....it's NOT scale nor exact, and needs a LOT more work, i.e., making the model walk, etc., but because that requires more time than I've got to put in it this will have to suffice for now...
What I want to do next is to advance the news video frame by frame and put the kid's path on the track....I know the path in the link is NOT exact, but I'll try to fix that as time allows...
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