There aren't really many categorically "Bad Losses" in the first month of the season
Any team can go into game 5 of the season with a 2 and 2 record and still win the division
Packers do it all the time
Patriots do it frequently
Bronco's and Seahawks have done it recently
However if you find yourself 3 and 3 it starts to get tricky
unless you're in the AFC South where 8-8 wins the division
The first 4 games of the season are not usually a "great indicator" of the future...
I hate to BDK you here, but the AFC South champ has been 9-7 or better (and usually better) for all of its existence.
Okay, it feels like 8-8 wins that division every year
and lets be clear, at 8-8 you're in the mix unlike anywhere else the NFL