css75 wrote:JoltinJoe wrote:
Wills is interesting, because he changed the way the game was played for a significant time.
In the 1950s through 1970s, an era of pitching dominance, a stolen base was obviously more valuable than today. Today, managers steal less frequently because, for many reasons, power production has so much significantly increased. In the smaller-ball era in which Wills played, reaching second base was critical, because then a single could possibly deliver a run.
The knock on Wills is that he only got on base 33% of the time; and his career OPS+ is only 88.
Yet, sabermetrics does not seem to have a grasp on how to value the stolen base. If a batter walks and then steals second base as frequently as Wills did, that's like a double. But Wills wouldn't get any credit in his slugging percentage for reaching second; and thus, his OPS would not increase. All he got was a slight uptick in his on-base percentage.
Yet he accomplished something as valuable for his team as a player who ripped a double in the game -- a hit that improves batting average; slugging percentage; and on-base percentage.
Plus, Wills being on base had the capacity to distract the opposing pitcher, which has identifiable but unmeasurable benefit for his teammates.
I believe you could justify Wills on the basis that he re-introduced the stolen base as a significant aspect of the game. But his overall case is never going to excite anyone using the modern metrics.
As for Walker, the 2020 Writers' Ballot has only one lock (Jeter). There are three players who finished ahead of Walker on the 2019 Ballot: Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens. They are all in their eighth year. I suspect that all three of them eventually get in, but I think their cases are going to the oversight committees. I think more than 25% of the voting writers have made a negative decision on all three.
So Walker, who finished with about 55% of the vote in 2019, needs to get a 20% jump in his voting percentage this year. A jump that big might ordinarily be too much, but with only one sure thing on this ballot, enough writers might have an extra slot to throw Walker's way.
The case for Walker is pretty clear. The knock is that he played in Colorado and that inflated his stats. Yet his career OPS+ is 141, which ranks among the top 70 offensive players all-time. This means, according to the best models we have to adjust for ballpark and era, Walker's stats, as adjusted, are still HOF worthy. On top of his offensive production, you can throw in a reputation as a great OF defender.
They have a baseball team in Colorado. Are we going to tell an entire fan base that their best players will never get into the Hall?
Walker should have already been elected long ago.
Agree, obviously. If Walker played anywhere else, he would already be in.
The case with Wills shows that the new fangled stats are not always the best.
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