The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby mainejeff » Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:13 am

BDKJMU wrote:
Ibanez wrote:And then it'll happen again and again. And you all will bitch about it.


Or, our "leaders" can step up and not pull this sort of crap. This tit for tat crap. But that means we need to elect leaders and actually hold them accountable.

Well, if you were in power and the opposition party in the House was launching numerous obviously politically motivated investigations, including on issues that had already been throughly investigated in exhaustive detail the previous 2 years by a special counsel, would you just sit there and cave, or fight it though denial, stonewall and delay?


I wouldn't be doing shady deals with Russia so I wouldn't even have to deal with it.

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Re: RE: Re: The Official

Postby Ibanez » Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:53 am

ALPHAGRIZ1 wrote:
Ibanez wrote:I wouldn't make it look like i've got something to hide. And when the report says I didn't commit treason, I'd welcome it and let that be that. I wouldn't act like a child or a bitch for most of my presidency.

Then again, I can laugh at myself and i'm not a arrogant, egotistical cunt like Trump. I can take criticism as long as it's constructive.


And unlike him, I don't think Russian interference de-legitimizes his win in 2016.
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Re: The Official

Postby Ibanez » Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:54 am

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Do you have some basis for saying that beyond your personal experience and perception? Can you document your claim that, globally, "a removal order in abstentia is not issued in most no show cases?"


Well, John - since I am one of those "experts" in the field, my personal experience actually does matter..

In ten years of viewing literally tens of thousands of cases for 9A and 9B ineligibilities, a good chunk of them from El Salvador, I can count on one hand how many failures to show resulted in an actual deport order on the first sitting.

Feel free to research the dockets of our immigration courts and you'll see it as well.

Also - OF COURSE people show up for asylum hearings. asylum claims are a small portion of the catch and release population. AND - when they show up for an asylum hearing and are found to be frivolous or having a no claim, they are THEN released again, pending an actual status hearing, for which they do not show up.

Bad data is what you posted.


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Re: The Official

Postby JohnStOnge » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:30 pm

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Do you have some basis for saying that beyond your personal experience and perception? Can you document your claim that, globally, "a removal order in abstentia is not issued in most no show cases?"


Well, John - since I am one of those "experts" in the field, my personal experience actually does matter..

In ten years of viewing literally tens of thousands of cases for 9A and 9B ineligibilities, a good chunk of them from El Salvador, I can count on one hand how many failures to show resulted in an actual deport order on the first sitting.

Feel free to research the dockets of our immigration courts and you'll see it as well.

Also - OF COURSE people show up for asylum hearings. asylum claims are a small portion of the catch and release population. AND - when they show up for an asylum hearing and are found to be frivolous or having a no claim, they are THEN released again, pending an actual status hearing, for which they do not show up.

Bad data is what you posted.


Well, you'll have to excuse me but I'll go with what appears to be going on with the guy who wrote the article at https://cis.org/Report/Courting-Disaster. He is a former immigration court judge. Also, he was arguing that the failure to appear rate is higher than Justice Department statistics suggest. But he argued that the rate is 37%. Also, as far as I can tell, he is accepting the in abstentia rate as the "failure to appear" rate. His argument is data based. Not a general impression based on his personal experience. And though he is arguing that the failure to appear rate is high the rate he is talking about, if anywhere close to accurate, means the statement that most illegal aliens don't show up for their hearings is false.

His big argument isn't about the in abstentia rate as reported by the Department of Justice not being a good metric for failure to appear. It's about counting detained aliens in the equation. In other words, he wrote that the problem is dividing the in abstentia rate by ALL illegals with hearings when it should be dividing it just by those who are released prior to their hearings. I think that makes perfect sense.

But it still appears to contradict your point of view. If it does not please explain.
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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby SDHornet » Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:50 pm

JSO using cooked stats to argue against an industry expert. This should end well.

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Re: The Official

Postby CID1990 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:32 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
Well, John - since I am one of those "experts" in the field, my personal experience actually does matter..

In ten years of viewing literally tens of thousands of cases for 9A and 9B ineligibilities, a good chunk of them from El Salvador, I can count on one hand how many failures to show resulted in an actual deport order on the first sitting.

Feel free to research the dockets of our immigration courts and you'll see it as well.

Also - OF COURSE people show up for asylum hearings. asylum claims are a small portion of the catch and release population. AND - when they show up for an asylum hearing and are found to be frivolous or having a no claim, they are THEN released again, pending an actual status hearing, for which they do not show up.

Bad data is what you posted.


Well, you'll have to excuse me but I'll go with what appears to be going on with the guy who wrote the article at https://cis.org/Report/Courting-Disaster. He is a former immigration court judge. Also, he was arguing that the failure to appear rate is higher than Justice Department statistics suggest. But he argued that the rate is 37%. Also, as far as I can tell, he is accepting the in abstentia rate as the "failure to appear" rate. His argument is data based. Not a general impression based on his personal experience. And though he is arguing that the failure to appear rate is high the rate he is talking about, if anywhere close to accurate, means the statement that most illegal aliens don't show up for their hearings is false.

His big argument isn't about the in abstentia rate as reported by the Department of Justice not being a good metric for failure to appear. It's about counting detained aliens in the equation. In other words, he wrote that the problem is dividing the in abstentia rate by ALL illegals with hearings when it should be dividing it just by those who are released prior to their hearings. I think that makes perfect sense.

But it still appears to contradict your point of view. If it does not please explain.


Ok - I see where the disconnect is here.

In absentia orders make up 75% percent of all orders of removal. That is different from the total number of aliens with orders to appear who do not appear. So I'll concede that point.

The numbers I deal with are the bad actors, and therefore I see that 75% in my line of work. In fact, it is probably higher than that.

However, I agree completely with the author on his remedies. Especially the barring of waiver relief for people who have been given deport orders in absentia.

One final note- did you know that CIS is a SPLC designated hate group?
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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby CID1990 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:55 am

Clitz will love this one -

French is spot on

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/ ... l-witness/


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Re: The Official

Postby Ibanez » Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:37 am

CID1990 wrote:Clitz will love this one -

French is spot on

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/ ... l-witness/


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:clap: French nailed it. I never read NR, I may have to throw it into the rotation.
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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby BDKJMU » Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:45 am

US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations

....best growth to start a year in four years. First-quarter GDP expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial read of the economy for that period. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the U.S. economy increased by 2.5% in the first quarter. It was the first time since 2015 that first-quarter GDP topped 3%.....”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1- ... -read.html
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Re: The Official

Postby AZGrizFan » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:32 am

CID1990 wrote:Clitz will love this one -

French is spot on

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/ ... l-witness/


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That Graham, or ANY evangelical, is stupid enough to put their words/weight behind ANY politician just shows how dumb they really are. Here's a hint, you religious types: If a politician's lips are moving, he's lying. The fact that the person may proclaim to agree with you (until it's politically expedient NOT TO) on a couple of fringe social issues doesn't make them a better person. And when you DO put your weight behind one while flame spraying another, your hypocrisy gets pointed out like in this article and any semblance of credibility you had left is eroded even further.

Honestly, the church should just stay the fuck out of the political arena altogether.
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Re: The Official

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:51 pm

CID1990 wrote:
One final note- did you know that CIS is a SPLC designated hate group?


No but I am not surprised. The SPLC is a little broad in the way it does that.
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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:09 pm

BDKJMU wrote:US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations

....best growth to start a year in four years. First-quarter GDP expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial read of the economy for that period. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the U.S. economy increased by 2.5% in the first quarter. It was the first time since 2015 that first-quarter GDP topped 3%.....”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1- ... -read.html
Image


Now, see, when you quote that one wonders why one thinks that means things are better now under Trump. It's saying that it's the best 1st quarter growth rate since the one that happened during Obama's second to last year. And if you look it up you find that the 1st quarter growth rate during Obama's second to last year was slightly higher than 3.2% at 3.3%.

So...like...the fact that it was the highest first quarter rate since it happened under Obama is supposed to make everybody thing "OH WOW! THINGS ARE REALLY A LOT BETTER NOW!"
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Re: The Official

Postby Chizzang » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:19 pm

CID1990 wrote:Clitz will love this one -

French is spot on

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/ ... l-witness/



The Church has been shoveling their moral high ground into this dumpster fire for 2 years now...
Proving that their faith in their book is bullsh!t - it's just a tool to be used against others
Proving that their morality is more posturing than any actual belief system

Proving by their own actions and words
that American Christianity is a actually just a well run money grab

:coffee:
Last edited by Chizzang on Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:20 pm

Good News! The Gold Standard poll has issued a report and it suggests Trump is still way under water on job approval. Also only 31% of respondents thought the Mueller report cleared Trump while 53% thought it did not.

Did not show support for impeachment but that's OK at this point. Impeachment would be a waste of time because Republicans in Congress including the Senate have zero integrity. They're all in with the Trump corruption.

I'm talking about the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Another interesting and encouraging thing: As I've noted before only 6 of the more than 300 polls rated by 538 are rated A+. Two show up on the current Real Clear Politics average of polls for Trump's job approval right now. The ABC News/Washington Post poll is one. The Monmouth poll is the other. Trump is 12 percentage points under water in the ABC News/Washington Post poll and 14 percentage points under water in the Monmouth poll.

It's good to see that the majority is still not buying it.
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Re: The Official

Postby Ivytalk » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:27 pm

Chizzang wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Clitz will love this one -

French is spot on

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/ ... l-witness/



The Church has been shoveling their moral high ground into this dumpster fire for 2 years now...
Proving that their faith in their book is bullsh!t
Proving that their morality is more posturing than a belief system

Proving by their own actions and words
that American Christianity is a actually just a well run money grab

:coffee:

Mainline Protestant denominations have been losing members and money for years, although that may have levelled off recently. Evangelicals holding their own but not surging. Fastest growing group over past 20 years is the “unchurched”/ “Nones”/ Chizzangs. :nod:
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Re: RE: Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby ALPHAGRIZ1 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:27 pm

BDKJMU wrote:US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations

....best growth to start a year in four years. First-quarter GDP expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial read of the economy for that period. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the U.S. economy increased by 2.5% in the first quarter. It was the first time since 2015 that first-quarter GDP topped 3%.....”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1- ... -read.html
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Just shows that Trump really is smarter than everyone else commenting on him.

TRUMP did this against everyone else, its why hes Americas President and its why we voted for him.

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Re: The Official

Postby houndawg » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:08 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Clitz will love this one -

French is spot on

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/ ... l-witness/


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That Graham, or ANY evangelical, is stupid enough to put their words/weight behind ANY politician just shows how dumb they really are. Here's a hint, you religious types: If a politician's lips are moving, he's lying. The fact that the person may proclaim to agree with you (until it's politically expedient NOT TO) on a couple of fringe social issues doesn't make them a better person. And when you DO put your weight behind one while flame spraying another, your hypocrisy gets pointed out like in this article and any semblance of credibility you had left is eroded even further.

Honestly, the church should just stay the **** out of the political arena altogether.


Or start paying taxes, like I do. :coffee:
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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:23 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations

....best growth to start a year in four years. First-quarter GDP expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial read of the economy for that period. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the U.S. economy increased by 2.5% in the first quarter. It was the first time since 2015 that first-quarter GDP topped 3%.....”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1- ... -read.html
Image


Now, see, when you quote that one wonders why one thinks that means things are better now under Trump. It's saying that it's the best 1st quarter growth rate since the one that happened during Obama's second to last year. And if you look it up you find that the 1st quarter growth rate during Obama's second to last year was slightly higher than 3.2% at 3.3%.

So...like...the fact that it was the highest first quarter rate since it happened under Obama is supposed to make everybody thing "OH WOW! THINGS ARE REALLY A LOT BETTER NOW!"


You’re right, John. Because economic conditions in 2015 were EXACTLY like they are today. Obama achieved 3.3% in a zero rate environment after THREE massive QE’s. Trump achieved 3.2% in the face of NINE rate increases and the Fed unwinding their balance sheet, but you already knew that. You seriously need to just STFU when it comes to economic discussions.
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Re: The Official

Postby Chizzang » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:36 pm

Ivytalk wrote:
Chizzang wrote:

The Church has been shoveling their moral high ground into this dumpster fire for 2 years now...
Proving that their faith in their book is bullsh!t
Proving that their morality is more posturing than a belief system

Proving by their own actions and words
that American Christianity is a actually just a well run money grab

:coffee:

Mainline Protestant denominations have been losing members and money for years, although that may have levelled off recently. Evangelicals holding their own but not surging. Fastest growing group over past 20 years is the “unchurched”/ “Nones”/ Chizzangs. :nod:


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something beyond ourselves and beyond our understanding
Without having to believe in magical iron age goat herders

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Re: RE: Re: The Official

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:39 pm

ALPHAGRIZ1 wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations

....best growth to start a year in four years. First-quarter GDP expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial read of the economy for that period. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the U.S. economy increased by 2.5% in the first quarter. It was the first time since 2015 that first-quarter GDP topped 3%.....”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1- ... -read.html
Image
Just shows that Trump really is smarter than everyone else commenting on him.

TRUMP did this against everyone else, its why hes Americas President and its why we voted for him.

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You think that because Trump was President during a first quarter, 2019, that had GDP growth ALMOST as large as we had during half (two of four) of the first quarters during Obama's second term? We had 3.6% growth in the first quarter of 2013 and 3.3% growth during the first quarter of 2015. We also had 3.2% first quarter growth in 2012. So we had 3.2% or better first quarter growth during three of the final five years of Obama's term.

3.2% first quarter growth is not a rare thing. Once again: Trump people are trying to sell the idea that things have REALLY taken off and gotten better now that the Dear Leader is President. It's a snow job.
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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:57 pm

In all seriousness about the GDP thing I've thought for a while that what we've seen is a decrease in the variability of quarterly GDP growth. I found a graph that really shows that. It's quarterly GDP growth for the past 10 years. So it's going back to the big recession around 2009 through the present. See below. You can see that during the Obama administration the "swings" were bigger. We had both higher and lower quarterly GDP growth than we've had so far during Trump's administration. You can also see that most of quarterly growth rates during Trump are actually below the trend line. It's not like the quarter to quarter variations tend to break "upward" during Trump to suggest that the overall central trend has gotten "better."

The overall central trend has not changed. There's no perceptable upswing in GDP associated with Trump taking office. Just a decrease in variability. The highs haven't been as high and the lows haven't been as low as they were during the Obama administration. You can generate the graph at https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth.

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Re: The Official

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:15 pm

CID1990 wrote:Clitz will love this one -

French is spot on

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/ ... l-witness/


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Agreed. I like it because it's similar to terminology I've used in conversations with certain Evangelical Christian family members. Like my sister in law. I tell them that my understanding is that "witness" is one of the most important things about Christianity and that White Evangelical Christians supporting Trump seriously compromises that. The problem is that some of those people actually believe Trump "accepted Christ and changed his life." And nothing you can say will stop them from rationalizing the obvious contradictions of that outlook. It's really is, I think, like trying to rescue somebody from a cult.
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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby CID1990 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:25 pm

Ibanez wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Clitz will love this one -

French is spot on

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/ ... l-witness/


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:clap: French nailed it. I never read NR, I may have to throw it into the rotation.


Wut?

It’s Bill Buckley’s old rag

Pretty much the flagship classic conservative outlet. Generally pretty negative towards Trump - but they’ll throw him a bone when he gets something right, too


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Re: The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

Postby CID1990 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:32 pm

Chizzang wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Clitz will love this one -

French is spot on

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/ ... l-witness/



The Church has been shoveling their moral high ground into this dumpster fire for 2 years now...
Proving that their faith in their book is bullsh!t - it's just a tool to be used against others
Proving that their morality is more posturing than any actual belief system

Proving by their own actions and words
that American Christianity is a actually just a well run money grab

:coffee:


Ugh dude

You wound me when you don’t read me- really

Support for Trump is absolutely consistent with conservative, Old Testament Christianity

Trump is Cyrus. It really IS that simple.

French is right that politics are as transactional for Christians as for any other advocacy group. But that has no relation to people’s faith... if you’re a bible thumping Oral Roberts type you have zero moral conflict with Trump being President. You might even believe he was on his way to hell before he took office.. but not now- he redeemed himself in the eyes of the dude upstairs.

No story could be MORE Christian


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Chizzang
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Re: The Official

Postby Chizzang » Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:51 pm

CID1990 wrote:
Chizzang wrote:

The Church has been shoveling their moral high ground into this dumpster fire for 2 years now...
Proving that their faith in their book is bullsh!t - it's just a tool to be used against others
Proving that their morality is more posturing than any actual belief system

Proving by their own actions and words
that American Christianity is a actually just a well run money grab

:coffee:


Ugh dude

You wound me when you don’t read me- really

Support for Trump is absolutely consistent with conservative, Old Testament Christianity

Trump is Cyrus. It really IS that simple.

French is right that politics are as transactional for Christians as for any other advocacy group. But that has no relation to people’s faith... if you’re a bible thumping Oral Roberts type you have zero moral conflict with Trump being President. You might even believe he was on his way to hell before he took office.. but not now- he redeemed himself in the eyes of the dude upstairs.

No story could be MORE Christian



I get that part... nothing could be more Christian than selling your soul for power
as long as it's like a fabled version of the same dishonorable trait
It's also an incredible flaw in the Cosmic Santa Claus Club

Again: Understood (Check)
it's super Christian to be hypocritical and smarmy as long as you get something back

My point still stands
It's a goat herding iron age train wreck of a religion due for a serious upgrade
and just because American moms and dads indoctrinated their kids into it doesn't mean I need to respect it

:coffee:
Q: Name something that offends Republicans?
A: The actual teachings of Jesus


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