The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

[UNI88]

Nobody cares about it day to day but here's a reminder of the fact that the Republicans were full of it when they were saying the tax cut would not cause budget issues:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/us-bu ... in-october

Revenues in October fell 2.8% to $245.2 billion from the same month a year ago. One revenue category that showed a big increase was tariffs on imports, which totaled $8 billion, up 39% from a year ago.

I downloaded the Excel file available at https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-sta ... rrent.html. I did a line of best fit thing to get the trend for the start of the Obama Administration through when the tax cut became effective. I calculated that if the trend had simply continued we'd have gotten about $574 billion more in revenues through October 2019 than we did.

SURPRISE: The tax cuts are associated with a decline in the rate of revenue growth. That's the same thing that happened with the Reagan tax cuts. But I'm sure Republicans will keep telling people the same old thing every time.

I'm not a fan of the Trump tax cuts but raising or lowering taxes is not done in a vacuum or a sterile lab environment where you can state with absolute certainty that they had x impact.

The rate of revenue growth declined under Reagan, what happened to actual revenue raised?

[JohnStOnge]

I downloaded the Excel file available at https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-sta ... rrent.html. I did a line of best fit thing to get the trend for the start of the Obama Administration through when the tax cut became effective. I calculated that if the trend had simply continued we'd have gotten about $574 billion more in revenues through October 2019 than we did.

Dude, you are a flat out wacko. You didn't even include the r squared value so how do we even know if your line was legit?

The r2 value is 0.237; which means the correlation coefficient is 0.487. It is highly significant at p <0.0001. But why would you doubt that there is always a trend whereby revenues increase over time? I mean over any reasonably long time frame.

And that's where Republicans do their trick. They say "Revenues increased after the Reagan tax cuts!" for instance. What they don't tell you is that the RATE of increase declined.

I do not dispute the basic principle associated with the Laffer curve. However, the effect of tax cutting taxes depends on where we are on that curve when the taxes are cut. And, during the past 40 years or so, it's been pretty clear that we have been at a point on the curve where cutting taxes brings us less revenue than we otherwise would've gotten.

[GannonFan]

Dude, you are a flat out wacko. You didn't even include the r squared value so how do we even know if your line was legit?

The r2 value is 0.237; which means the correlation coefficient is 0.487. It is highly significant at p <0.0001. But why would you doubt that there is always a trend whereby revenues increase over time? I mean over any reasonably long time frame.

You're like a p-hacker.

[JohnStOnge]

Promises made, promises kept. Oh wait:

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pr ... in-8-years

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1028524507

Such broadsides would soon turn into the promise that he could do a better job. He said as a presidential candidate in 2016 that he would completely eliminate the national debt within eight years, though the US has moved the opposite direction since then as spending steadily outpaced receipts.

[JohnStOnge]

Oh and Mexico was going to pay for the wall.

[AZGrizFan]

That makes me an atheist because I don’t believe in something you do? Wow. That sounds like something a liberal would say. For shame.

The great thing about Religion is they they are all basically total bullsh!t...
nobody really knows - a lot of folks pretend to know - but nobody knows



I've explained my beliefs to people and gotten some hearty laughs
the whole thing is just whatever makes you feel good

Lol. Kind of like what the Dems are doing in this impeachment sham. Pretending to know things that they do not know....did not hear....but are CERTAIN happened.

[Ibanez]

The great thing about Religion is they they are all basically total bullsh!t...
nobody really knows - a lot of folks pretend to know - but nobody knows



I've explained my beliefs to people and gotten some hearty laughs
the whole thing is just whatever makes you feel good

Lol. Kind of like what the Dems are doing in this impeachment sham. Pretending to know things that they do not know....did not hear....but are CERTAIN happened.

Both sides are claiming knowledge. They are a POX


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[SeattleGriz]

The great thing about Religion is they they are all basically total bullsh!t...
nobody really knows - a lot of folks pretend to know - but nobody knows



I've explained my beliefs to people and gotten some hearty laughs
the whole thing is just whatever makes you feel good

Like clockwork: Chizzang’s obligatory obeisance to the Bhagwan Sam Harris.

Oh my Lord. I laughed over the Bhagwan. I grew up in NC Montana and had 9 kids in my senior class, BUT, my science teacher was a Bhagwan adherent.

Good times.

[SeattleGriz]

Oh and Mexico was going to pay for the wall.

They did. Maths already proved it.

[SDHornet]

The great thing about Religion is they they are all basically total bullsh!t...
nobody really knows - a lot of folks pretend to know - but nobody knows



I've explained my beliefs to people and gotten some hearty laughs
the whole thing is just whatever makes you feel good

Lol. Kind of like what the Dems are doing in this impeachment sham. Pretending to know things that they do not know....did not hear....but are CERTAIN happened.

ZING!!!

[houndawg]

The great thing about Religion is they they are all basically total bullsh!t...
nobody really knows - a lot of folks pretend to know - but nobody knows



I've explained my beliefs to people and gotten some hearty laughs
the whole thing is just whatever makes you feel good

Lol. Kind of like what the Dems are doing in this impeachment sham. Pretending to know things that they do not know....did not hear....but are CERTAIN happened.

If things hadn't happened this would all be over by now because there wouldn't be anything to hide and the target of the investigation wouldn't have done everything in his power to obstruct the investigation every inch of the way. Smoke. Fire. Tick. Tock.

[houndawg]

Lol. Kind of like what the Dems are doing in this impeachment sham. Pretending to know things that they do not know....did not hear....but are CERTAIN happened.

ZING!!!

You slop Trump's knob with such gusto that Vladimir can feel from the other end.

[Ivytalk]

ZING!!!

You slop Trump's knob with such gusto that Vladimir can feel from the other end.

Ooh, another drive-by pooting from the pharaoh of Egypt.

[CID1990]

You slop Trump's knob with such gusto that Vladimir can feel from the other end.

Ooh, another drive-by pooting from the pharaoh of Egypt.

BRAWWWK!

(As I like to say)


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[Ibanez]

Oh and Mexico was going to pay for the wall.

They did. Maths already proved it.

Dana - you don’t really believe this do you? You’re joking, right? The money for the wall has come from the Pentagon and others US agencies. Mexico hasn’t given a dime.


And don’t say New NAFTA will pay for it. That isn’t how appropriations and tariffs work.
Meanwhile....
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... -wall-yet/

The administration still has yet to fence in any new miles of border with President Trump’s wall, a top Homeland Security official acknowledged Thursday — though he said that’s not the right way to look at the problem.

Acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan told reporters that 78 miles of wall has been erected under Mr. Trump, but all of it has replaced outdated fencing or barriers that had previously existed.

None of it has blocked off a portion of the border where there wasn’t previously some type of barrier

[SDHornet]

You slop Trump's knob with such gusto that Vladimir can feel from the other end.

Ooh, another drive-by pooting from the pharaoh of Egypt.

Yeah he got me good.

[css75]

Lol. Kind of like what the Dems are doing in this impeachment sham. Pretending to know things that they do not know....did not hear....but are CERTAIN happened.

ZING!!!

The religion of liberalism,their sacrament is abortion.


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[SeattleGriz]

They did. Maths already proved it.

Dana - you don’t really believe this do you? You’re joking, right? The money for the wall has come from the Pentagon and others US agencies. Mexico hasn’t given a dime.


And don’t say New NAFTA will pay for it. That isn’t how appropriations and tariffs work.
Meanwhile....
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... -wall-yet/

The administration still has yet to fence in any new miles of border with President Trump’s wall, a top Homeland Security official acknowledged Thursday — though he said that’s not the right way to look at the problem.

Acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan told reporters that 78 miles of wall has been erected under Mr. Trump, but all of it has replaced outdated fencing or barriers that had previously existed.

None of it has blocked off a portion of the border where there wasn’t previously some type of barrier

Do I think Mexico was going to write us a check? No, and neither did Trump. Pretty apparent he meant he was going to cause in influx of money in one fashion or another to offset the loss the taxpayer will have, for footing the bill for the wall.

Taken from his campaign. He is going to get cash one way or another and he only cares that the debits are higher than the credits to claim this true. Sounds just like a politician. And the maths are proving that broad definition correct.

“Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico (Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options). We will not be taken advantage of anymore.”

[Chizzang]

“Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico (Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options). We will not be taken advantage of anymore.”

[/quote]


Dana, I need that link for that quote ^ please...

[SeattleGriz]

“Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico (Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options). We will not be taken advantage of anymore.”

Dana, I need that link for that quote ^ please...

[/quote]

ON the WAYBACK machine.

https://web.archive.org/web/20160409064 ... ion-reform

[JohnStOnge]

Decided to take a look at where the Dow is in a different way. I took the core per session growth rate from the start of the Bull Market through 2016 election day and used it to estimate where the Dow would be now if it had continued at that rate since Trump took office in January 2016 through today.

Result: The Dow would be at 29,568.61 (it's currently at 28,004.89).

The rationale is as follows:

I did not give "credit" for what happened November 9, 2016 through January 20, 2017 because perception pertaining to who won likely impacted that. At the same time, I did not give "credit" to Trump because he could not actually do anything until he took office.

Of course Trump couldn't actually do anything until some point after he took office. So if anybody wants to suggest a start date as the point at which Trump's actual actions started to take effect I can plug that in.

I did just for the heck of it look at January 1, 2018 as a starting point. By that point the tax bill had been passed. The "where the Dow would be now" number for that starting point using the core pre 2016 election rate is 32,214.

[AZGrizFan]

Blah blah blah.....Jesus H Tittyfucking Christ you try soooo hard to twist facts to fit your narrative it’s almost comical.

You take the bottom of a bull market after the worst recession in 80 years....nice.

How about you look at how the market had basically stalled for almost the last THREE YEARS of obama’s Presidency...and then look at what it did literally THE MINUTE Trump was elected?

You are blind to what’s right in front of you. Your TDS is fully engaged at this point.

[UNI88]

Decided to take a look at where the Dow is in a different way. I took the core per session growth rate from the start of the Bull Market through 2016 election day and used it to estimate where the Dow would be now if it had continued at that rate since Trump took office in January 2016 through today.

Result: The Dow would be at 29,568.61 (it's currently at 28,004.89).

The rationale is as follows:

I did not give "credit" for what happened November 9, 2016 through January 20, 2017 because perception pertaining to who won likely impacted that. At the same time, I did not give "credit" to Trump because he could not actually do anything until he took office.

Of course Trump couldn't actually do anything until some point after he took office. So if anybody wants to suggest a start date as the point at which Trump's actual actions started to take effect I can plug that in.

I did just for the heck of it look at January 1, 2018 as a starting point. By that point the tax bill had been passed. The "where the Dow would be now" number for that starting point using the core pre 2016 election rate is 32,214.

BRAWKKK!

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[CAA Flagship]

Decided to take a look at where the Dow is in a different way. I took the core per session growth rate from the start of the Bull Market through 2016 election day and used it to estimate where the Dow would be now if it had continued at that rate since Trump took office in January 2016 through today.

Result: The Dow would be at 29,568.61 (it's currently at 28,004.89).

The rationale is as follows:

I did not give "credit" for what happened November 9, 2016 through January 20, 2017 because perception pertaining to who won likely impacted that. At the same time, I did not give "credit" to Trump because he could not actually do anything until he took office.

Of course Trump couldn't actually do anything until some point after he took office. So if anybody wants to suggest a start date as the point at which Trump's actual actions started to take effect I can plug that in.

I did just for the heck of it look at January 1, 2018 as a starting point. By that point the tax bill had been passed. The "where the Dow would be now" number for that starting point using the core pre 2016 election rate is 32,214.

Plug this in: What happened between election day and Trump's inauguration should absolutely be credited to Trump. I guess you don't understand how the market works.
Look at how many stocks drop after beating earnings estimates but lower their forward guidance. The market looks at the past AND future.

[Ibanez]

Decided to take a look at where the Dow is in a different way. I took the core per session growth rate from the start of the Bull Market through 2016 election day and used it to estimate where the Dow would be now if it had continued at that rate since Trump took office in January 2016 through today.

Result: The Dow would be at 29,568.61 (it's currently at 28,004.89).

The rationale is as follows:

I did not give "credit" for what happened November 9, 2016 through January 20, 2017 because perception pertaining to who won likely impacted that. At the same time, I did not give "credit" to Trump because he could not actually do anything until he took office.

Of course Trump couldn't actually do anything until some point after he took office. So if anybody wants to suggest a start date as the point at which Trump's actual actions started to take effect I can plug that in.

I did just for the heck of it look at January 1, 2018 as a starting point. By that point the tax bill had been passed. The "where the Dow would be now" number for that starting point using the core pre 2016 election rate is 32,214.

You’re back dating a prediction to fit your opinion.


I’m with AZ...


Also, Get over it


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