Yes I saw that on the news. It is factual. I think they could have spun it better in that, in looking at the data, I could only find one President that enjoyed a greater increase in S&P 500 value during the period they defined (day of election through December 25 of the third following calendar year). I calculated the increase at 50.7% for Trump. Only President I could see as enjoying a better first three years of S&P after initial election is Eisenhower at 84.9%. It was 46.3% for Clinton and 45.1% for H.W. Bush.Baldy wrote:Something for JSO to gnaw on...
Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
President Donald Trump’s stock market stacks up well against the majority of his presidential predecessors.
The S&P 500 has returned more than 50% since Trump was elected, more than double the 23% average market return of presidents three years into their term, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group dating to 1928.
The bellwether index gained more than 28% this year, well above the average 12.8% return of year three for past U.S. presidents.
I don't know if there is anything special about it being the election day to December 25 of the third following calendar year though. November 8, 2016 through December 25, 2019 was a 1,142 day period. I can find 1,142 day periods during previous administrations that were better. For example: The value of the S&P 500 increased by 63.2% during November 8, 2011 through December 24, 2014 (1,142 days...2012 being a leap year changed the end date). I can take one look at the Clinton years and see that I could find a LOT of 1,142 day periods that did better than 50.7%. And, while he may have another five years to go, the maximum annual calendar year growth during Trump's term so far (28.88%) falls short of the maximum annual calendar year growth of the Obama Administration (29.60%) as well as that of the Clinton Administration (34.11%),
It's not that it isn't good. I am happy with it. But it is not unprecedented Stock Market performance. I don't think I'm going to go through the trouble of setting things up for the S&P. But I have the thing I set up for the Dow. Right now, if the Dow had increased from November 9, 2016 through present at the mean per session percent increase characterizing the period from the start of the Bull Market through November 8, 2016, it would be at 28,835.30. It closed the year at 28,538.44. So it's about where I would expect it to be if things had generally continued as they went during the preceding part of the Bull Market. I'm pretty confident I'd get the same basic picture if I did the same type of thing with the S&P.