2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[JohnStOnge]

Another thing: While it's not unexpected the thing where the media are placing so much emphasis on the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary is really bad. You're talking about a situation in which there will be 3,979 pledged delegates. Iowa and New Hampshire account for 65 of them. Bill Clinton did not win a Democratic Party during the campaign leading up to the 1992 election until the 6th one (Georgia).

The media, I think, are affecting the results by talking about how important it is to win one of the first two primaries when it really wouldn't be if the media didn't say that.

[Pwns]

What's funny here is that Bloomberg is actually helping Bernie, the very guy Bloomberg threatened an independent run over.

[BDKJMU]

I think you guys over estimate Trump's strength in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He didn't win the majority of the vote in any of those States last time. As I've posted before, it was much more the Democrat losing support than it was the Republican gaining it. In Pennsylvania, for instance, Trump's performance was 2 percentage points better than Romney's while Clinton's was 4.5 percentage points worse than Obama's. If all that had happened was people switching form Democrat to Republican Clinton would have won.

Again: Trump was running against someone who was under FBI investigation during much of the campaign.

Trump is not a strong candidate. It's just a question of whether whoever the Democrats pick are even weaker than he is.

BTW the national popular vote is pretty predictive. Not perfectly predictive. But there have been 35 Presidential elections since we reached the point where all electors were chosen by popular vote in each State and the winner of the overall national popular vote has won 32 of them. Also, the largest popular vote deficit by which someone who won the election in spite of losing the popular vote is Trump's 2.1%.

So when you see something like, for instance, Mike Bloomberg leading Trump by 6 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average that is notable. Sanders, BTW, Sanders leads Trump by 4.3 percentage points.

I think Bloomberg is the bigger threat to Trump. He's very smart. A LOT smarter than Trump. He's willing to drill Trump. And he's got more money than the whole Republican Party has. But ANY Democrat has a shot because there is such a "anybody but Trump" sentiment in the country right now.

Having said that other stuff I will also say that Sanders is toxic to the Democrats. The majority of Democrats do not favor him. But we are in a situation in which, because of the number of candidates, he could win a plurality of the delegates during the Democratic primaries. Meanwhile he has started to resort to his demagoguery. Started to do things like casting other Democrats as in the pocket of billionaires. So we could have a situation where they go to the convention with Sanders having a plurality but the moderates consolidate and pick somebody else. Then we have to worry a about the Sanders nuts not supporting the Democrat nominee.

Another thing: While it's not unexpected the thing where the media are placing so much emphasis on the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary is really bad. You're talking about a situation in which there will be 3,979 pledged delegates. Iowa and New Hampshire account for 65 of them. Bill Clinton did not win a Democratic Party during the campaign leading up to the 1992 election until the 6th one (Georgia).

The media, I think, are affecting the results by talking about how important it is to win one of the first two primaries when it really wouldn't be if the media didn't say that.

Newsflash. 1 really long post, or 4 long posts in a row: No one is reading it.

[mainejeff]

Join the MAGA train. It's much less stressful.

[93henfan]

I absolutely LOVE this. Please, other Democrats, play this shit on a loop. Get the blacks mad. This gun-grabbing joo cannot be given the keys to the White House:

Michael Bloomberg is heard defending his controversial stop and frisk policing policy in stark terms in snippets of audio that were posted on Twitter Monday, with the former New York mayor describing the policy as a way to reduce violence by throwing minority kids "up against the walls and frisk them"

In the audio, reportedly from a 2015 speech in Colorado, Bloomberg also claims that "95%" of "murders and murderers and murder victims" are male minorities between the ages of 16 to 25.

"You can just take the descriptions and Xerox it and pass it out to all the cops," he can be heard saying.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/11/politics ... index.html

[mainejeff]

I absolutely LOVE this. Please, other Democrats, play this shit on a loop. Get the blacks mad. This gun-grabbing joo cannot be given the keys to the White House:

Michael Bloomberg is heard defending his controversial stop and frisk policing policy in stark terms in snippets of audio that were posted on Twitter Monday, with the former New York mayor describing the policy as a way to reduce violence by throwing minority kids "up against the walls and frisk them"

In the audio, reportedly from a 2015 speech in Colorado, Bloomberg also claims that "95%" of "murders and murderers and murder victims" are male minorities between the ages of 16 to 25.

"You can just take the descriptions and Xerox it and pass it out to all the cops," he can be heard saying.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/11/politics ... index.html

Bloomberg is an absolute racist! President Trump even tweeted it....then took it down for some reason. He should have kept it up.

[mainejeff]

Yang is done. See ya!

[Ivytalk]

Bennet of CO is out.

[SDHornet]

I absolutely LOVE this. Please, other Democrats, play this shit on a loop. Get the blacks mad. This gun-grabbing joo cannot be given the keys to the White House:

Michael Bloomberg is heard defending his controversial stop and frisk policing policy in stark terms in snippets of audio that were posted on Twitter Monday, with the former New York mayor describing the policy as a way to reduce violence by throwing minority kids "up against the walls and frisk them"

In the audio, reportedly from a 2015 speech in Colorado, Bloomberg also claims that "95%" of "murders and murderers and murder victims" are male minorities between the ages of 16 to 25.

"You can just take the descriptions and Xerox it and pass it out to all the cops," he can be heard saying.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/11/politics ... index.html

[SDHornet]

[SDHornet]

mj will love this one:

[SDHornet]

Per CNN:

Here's CNN's estimate of the New Hampshire delegate count:

Bernie Sanders: 9
Pete Buttigieg: 9
Amy Klobuchar: 6
Combined with Iowa delegates, Buttigieg now has a total of 23, Sanders has 21 and Klobuchar has 7.

In NH, Bernie had about 4k more votes that Booty. Klobachar a distant 3rd, Warren way behind in 4th. Biden not even in the conversation.

[mainejeff]

mj will love this one:

Steyer is a moron. Trump is right...the guy may as well burn his money.

[BDKJMU]

Current scorecard: "200+ individuals have filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president in the Democratic Party primary, as of April 25, 2019".
"the candidates in this section have held public office, been included in a minimum of five independent national polls or have otherwise received substantial coverage"

Announced
Dates they officially declared their candidacy:
1. 1/11/19 Tulsi Gabbard, 38, Rep HI 2013-present.
2. 2/9/19 Pocahontas, 70, Sen MA 2013-present.
3. 2/10/19 Amy Klochbar, 59, Sen MN, 2007-present.
4. 2/19/19 Bernie Sanders, 78, Rep VT 91-2007; Sen VT 2007-present.
5. 4/14/19 Peter Buttigieg, 38, Mayor of South Bend, ND 2012-present, 1st openly gay donk candidate.
6. 4/25/19 Biden, 77, former DE Senator & VP.
7. 7/9/19 Tom Steyer, 62, hedge fund manager.
8. 11/21/19 Nanny Bloomberg, 77, Mayor New York City 2002-2013.

Withdrew:
1. Richard Ojeda, 49, retired Army major & former WV state senator 2016-2019. Announced candidacy 11/11/18, withdrew 1/25.
2. Eric Swalwell, 39, Rep CA 2013-present. Announced candidacy 4/8, withdrew 7/8.
3. Mike Gravel, 89, former AK Senator. Announced candidacy 4/2, withdrew 8/6.
4. John Hickenlooper, 68, Mayor of Denver (2003–2011), Gov of Colorado (2011–2019).Announced candidacy 4/2, withdrew 8/15.
5. Jay Inslee, 69, Gov WA 2013-present. Announced candidacy 3/1, withdrew 8/21.
6. Seth Moulton, 41, Rep MA 2015-current. Announced candidacy 3/1, withdrew 8/23.
7. Kirsten Gillibrand, 53, Rep NY 2007-2009, Sen NY 2009-present. Announced candidacy 1/15, withdrew 8/28.
8. Bill De Blasio, 58, Mayor NYC 2014-present. Announced candidacy 5/16, withdrew 9/20.
9. Tim Ryan, 46, Rep OH 2003-present. Announced candidacy 4/4, withdrew 10/24 .
10. Robert O'Rourke, 47, Rep El Paso 2013-2019. Announced candidacy 3/14, withdrew 11/1 .
11. Wayne Messam, 45, Mayor of Miramar, FL, 2015-present. Announced candidacy 3/28, withdrew 11/19.
12. Joe Sestak, 68, former Navy admiral & Rep PA 2007-2011. Announced candidacy 6/23, withdrew 12/1.
13. Steve Bullock, 53, Gov Montana 2013-present. Announced candidacy 5/14, withdrew 12/2.
14. Kamala Harris, 55, Sen CA 2017-present. Announced candidacy 1/21, withdrew 12/3.
15. Julian Castro, 45, Mayor of San Antonio 2009-2014; Sec HUD 2014-2017. Announced candidacy 1/12/19, withdrew 1/2/20.
16. Marianne Williamson, 67, NYT best selling author. Announced candidacy 1/28/19, withdrew 1/10/20.
17. Spartacus, 50, Mayor Newark, NJ, 2006-2013; Senator NJ 2013-present.Announced candidacy 2/1/19, withdrew 1/13/20.
18. John Delaney, 56, Rep MD 2013-2019. Announced candidacy 1/28/19, withdrew 1/31/20.
19. Andrew Yang, 45, former CEO Venture for America. Announced candidacy 11/16/17, withdrew 2/11/20.
20. Michael Bennet, 55, Sen CO 2009-present. Announced candidacy 5/2/19, withdrew 2/11/20.
21. Duval Patrick, 63, former Gov Mass 2007-2015. Announced candidacy 11/14/19, withdrew 2/12/20.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Demo ... committees

Bump with update since last update 1/6. Since then 6 have dropped out: Williamson, Spartacus, Delaney, Yang, Bennet, Patrick.

And why hasn't Gabbard dropped out yet? She has zero chance- was dead last in NH among those still in it except for Bloomberg, who wasn't on the ballot.

[kalm]

Fun fact: Biden has never finished above 4th in any primary the four times he’s ran.

[93henfan]

Please oh please oh please nominate Sanders! This has to be too good to be true.

[mainejeff]

Current scorecard: "200+ individuals have filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president in the Democratic Party primary, as of April 25, 2019".
"the candidates in this section have held public office, been included in a minimum of five independent national polls or have otherwise received substantial coverage"

Announced
Dates they officially declared their candidacy:
1. 1/11/19 Tulsi Gabbard, 38, Rep HI 2013-present.
2. 2/9/19 Pocahontas, 70, Sen MA 2013-present.
3. 2/10/19 Amy Klochbar, 59, Sen MN, 2007-present.
4. 2/19/19 Bernie Sanders, 78, Rep VT 91-2007; Sen VT 2007-present.
5. 4/14/19 Peter Buttigieg, 38, Mayor of South Bend, ND 2012-present, 1st openly gay donk candidate.
6. 4/25/19 Biden, 77, former DE Senator & VP.
7. 7/9/19 Tom Steyer, 62, hedge fund manager.
8. 11/21/19 Nanny Bloomberg, 77, Mayor New York City 2002-2013.

Withdrew:
1. Richard Ojeda, 49, retired Army major & former WV state senator 2016-2019. Announced candidacy 11/11/18, withdrew 1/25.
2. Eric Swalwell, 39, Rep CA 2013-present. Announced candidacy 4/8, withdrew 7/8.
3. Mike Gravel, 89, former AK Senator. Announced candidacy 4/2, withdrew 8/6.
4. John Hickenlooper, 68, Mayor of Denver (2003–2011), Gov of Colorado (2011–2019).Announced candidacy 4/2, withdrew 8/15.
5. Jay Inslee, 69, Gov WA 2013-present. Announced candidacy 3/1, withdrew 8/21.
6. Seth Moulton, 41, Rep MA 2015-current. Announced candidacy 3/1, withdrew 8/23.
7. Kirsten Gillibrand, 53, Rep NY 2007-2009, Sen NY 2009-present. Announced candidacy 1/15, withdrew 8/28.
8. Bill De Blasio, 58, Mayor NYC 2014-present. Announced candidacy 5/16, withdrew 9/20.
9. Tim Ryan, 46, Rep OH 2003-present. Announced candidacy 4/4, withdrew 10/24 .
10. Robert O'Rourke, 47, Rep El Paso 2013-2019. Announced candidacy 3/14, withdrew 11/1 .
11. Wayne Messam, 45, Mayor of Miramar, FL, 2015-present. Announced candidacy 3/28, withdrew 11/19.
12. Joe Sestak, 68, former Navy admiral & Rep PA 2007-2011. Announced candidacy 6/23, withdrew 12/1.
13. Steve Bullock, 53, Gov Montana 2013-present. Announced candidacy 5/14, withdrew 12/2.
14. Kamala Harris, 55, Sen CA 2017-present. Announced candidacy 1/21, withdrew 12/3.
15. Julian Castro, 45, Mayor of San Antonio 2009-2014; Sec HUD 2014-2017. Announced candidacy 1/12/19, withdrew 1/2/20.
16. Marianne Williamson, 67, NYT best selling author. Announced candidacy 1/28/19, withdrew 1/10/20.
17. Spartacus, 50, Mayor Newark, NJ, 2006-2013; Senator NJ 2013-present.Announced candidacy 2/1/19, withdrew 1/13/20.
18. John Delaney, 56, Rep MD 2013-2019. Announced candidacy 1/28/19, withdrew 1/31/20.
19. Andrew Yang, 45, former CEO Venture for America. Announced candidacy 11/16/17, withdrew 2/11/20.
20. Michael Bennet, 55, Sen CO 2009-present. Announced candidacy 5/2/19, withdrew 2/11/20.
21. Duval Patrick, 63, former Gov Mass 2007-2015. Announced candidacy 11/14/19, withdrew 2/12/20.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Demo ... committees

Bump with update since last update 1/6. Since then 6 have dropped out: Williamson, Spartacus, Delaney, Yang, Bennet, Patrick.

And why hasn't Gabbard dropped out yet? She has zero chance- was dead last in NH among those still in it except for Bloomberg, who wasn't on the ballot.

Gabbard is in this to help Trump win. God bless Tulsi!

[mainejeff]

Fun fact: Biden has never finished above 4th in any primary the four times he’s ran.

Which shows what a horrible campaigner he is.

[mainejeff]

Please oh please oh please nominate Sanders! This has to be too good to be true.

I'm counting on tripling my net worth by the end of Trump's second term.

[Pwns]

Black people supporting Bloomberg while white liberals compete to be the loudest to be offended on their behalf is today's Democratic politics in a nutshell.

[93henfan]

Black people supporting Bloomberg while white liberals compete to be the loudest to be offended on their behalf is today's Democratic politics in a nutshell.

Liberals are on a never-ending apology tour for shit people did 150+ years ago.

At some point, you have to stop trying to penalize people who had absolutely nothing to do with it.

[UNI88]

Black people supporting Bloomberg while white liberals compete to be the loudest to be offended on their behalf is today's Democratic politics in a nutshell.

Liberals are on a never-ending apology tour for shit people did 150+ years ago.

At some point, you have to stop trying to penalize people who had absolutely nothing to do with it.

But your ancestors did and you're privileged as a result so you are responsible and should be penalized for it. Now that poor 19 y/o who killed someone while robbing a convenience store, that was because he was culturally and economically deprived as a child so that isn't his fault and he shouldn't be penalized for it.

[GannonFan]

Fun fact: Biden has never finished above 4th in any primary the four times he’s ran.

I did not know that - that's actually fascinating. And I didn't realize he ran that many times, I thought it was just the time he got caught plagerizing and then this time.

[AZGrizFan]

Fun fact: Biden has never finished above 4th in any primary the four times he’s ran.

That is astounding. At what point do you "get it"? I guess never, in his case....

[mainejeff]

Black people supporting Bloomberg while white liberals compete to be the loudest to be offended on their behalf is today's Democratic politics in a nutshell.

Liberals are on a never-ending apology tour for shit people did 150+ years ago.

At some point, you have to stop trying to penalize people who had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Amen! Seems like white libtards are protesting the loudest.