The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

[CID1990]

So ... it looks like maybe Americans WILL do those jobs... for more pay


https://www.economist.com/united-states ... ges-are-up




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[kalm]

So ... it looks like maybe Americans WILL do those jobs... for more pay


https://www.economist.com/united-states ... ges-are-up




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They'd do them for less pay if we streamlined and screened eligibility for welfare benefits more. Minimum wage also plays a role for good or worse. I now have to pay my sons $13.50/hour. The older one is becoming more reliable but trust me, neither of those grunts are worth $13.50/hour.

[Ivytalk]

So ... it looks like maybe Americans WILL do those jobs... for more pay


https://www.economist.com/united-states ... ges-are-up




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They'd do them for less pay if we streamlined and screened eligibility for welfare benefits more. Minimum wage also plays a role for good or worse. I now have to pay my sons $13.50/hour. The older one is becoming more reliable but trust me, neither of those grunts are worth $13.50/hour.

Have you ever seen The Help with Emma Stone? Good movie.

[kalm]

They'd do them for less pay if we streamlined and screened eligibility for welfare benefits more. Minimum wage also plays a role for good or worse. I now have to pay my sons $13.50/hour. The older one is becoming more reliable but trust me, neither of those grunts are worth $13.50/hour.

Have you ever seen The Help with Emma Stone? Good movie.

No...but you had me at Emma Stone....

[UNI88]

So ... it looks like maybe Americans WILL do those jobs... for more pay

https://www.economist.com/united-states ... ges-are-up

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They'd do them for less pay if we streamlined and screened eligibility for welfare benefits more. Minimum wage also plays a role for good or worse. I now have to pay my sons $13.50/hour. The older one is becoming more reliable but trust me, neither of those grunts are worth $13.50/hour.

The apple doesn't fall far from the tree?

[kalm]

They'd do them for less pay if we streamlined and screened eligibility for welfare benefits more. Minimum wage also plays a role for good or worse. I now have to pay my sons $13.50/hour. The older one is becoming more reliable but trust me, neither of those grunts are worth $13.50/hour.

The apple doesn't fall far from the tree?

I’m worth at least 15 you son of a bitch!

[UNI88]

The apple doesn't fall far from the tree?

I’m worth at least 15 you son of a bitch!

I'll pay you $14.95/hour and not a penny more you slacker.

[mainejeff]

President Trump commutes the sentence of dirty Dem Rob Blagojevich. A bit disappointed here.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... rdon-kerik

[CID1990]

I’d like to see The Economist dig a little deeper into this. They don’t say definitively that there is a correlation between lower immigration numbers and higher wages in the blue collar sector, but they strongly suggest it.

Immigration policy needs to be fact driven and I think this would be a large decision making factor in that regard.


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[JohnStOnge]

Ok. So I'd been hearing stuff like "YES overall job creation has decreased slightly under Trump but it's the MANUFACTURING jobs!" So I thought, "Ok. I'll go directly to the source and take a look at that." The data are at https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/BDS0000 ... raphs=true.

I left January 2016 out of any calculations because it was about half Obama and half Trump. For during the recovery but before Trump I used 3rd quarter 2009 through 4th quarter 2016 since the recovery started late in the 2nd quarter of 2009 (June).

And, OK, the average number of manufacturing jobs per quarter since February 2016, at 430 thousand per month, narrowly exceeds the average number, which is 426 thousand per month, during the recovery through December 2016. But the difference is not "significant" (p = 0.66 when p <0.05 is required for significance). And the average since the big thing the Republicans did...the tax cut...is 428 thousand per month.

No, Virginia, there hasn't been any big boom in manufacturing jobs under Trump. The idea that there has been an explosion in manufacturing job creation since Trump took over that clearly indicates a change from previous years of the recovery is...like so many other things associated with Trump...complete nonsense.

[AZGrizFan]

Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 AVE
2009 299 364 475 416 388
2010 420 477 452 447 449
2011 436 454 468 432 447
2012 441 449 418 414 430
2013 405 419 410 422 414
2014 403 436 412 439 422
2015 391 431 397 411 407
2016 385 413 403 409 402
2017 408 446 397 456 439
2018 424 440 423 465 438
2019 402 415

I added a column for the annual average. Conclusion? Obama’s first two years (10, 11, when literally a trained monkey could have looked good given where the economy/country was starting from) of the recovery were good. The trend from there is NOT a good one—steadily downward until Trump took over and took off the shackles. Trump’s first two years (17, 18) added, on average, another 20,000-35,000 jobs PER QUARTER than Obama’s last 5 years. That’s an extra 80,000-140,000 jobs ANNUALLY in just manufacturing. But yeah, like the stock market, there’s no change in trajectory....

You are literally the cherry-pickinest motherfucker on the planet.

[Skjellyfetti]

How bout you finish your chart for 2019.

[AZGrizFan]

How bout you finish your chart for 2019.

I just used his chart from his link.

[CID1990]

How bout you finish your chart for 2019.

I just used his chart from his link.

Damn




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[AZGrizFan]

JSO searching furiously for irrelevant data to refute my point.....

[JohnStOnge]

Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 AVE
2009 299 364 475 416 388
2010 420 477 452 447 449
2011 436 454 468 432 447
2012 441 449 418 414 430
2013 405 419 410 422 414
2014 403 436 412 439 422
2015 391 431 397 411 407
2016 385 413 403 409 402
2017 408 446 397 456 439
2018 424 440 423 465 438
2019 402 415

I added a column for the annual average. Conclusion? Obama’s first two years (10, 11, when literally a trained monkey could have looked good given where the economy/country was starting from) of the recovery were good. The trend from there is NOT a good one—steadily downward until Trump took over and took off the shackles. Trump’s first two years (17, 18) added, on average, another 20,000-35,000 jobs PER QUARTER than Obama’s last 5 years. That’s an extra 80,000-140,000 jobs ANNUALLY in just manufacturing. But yeah, like the stock market, there’s no change in trajectory....

You are literally the cherry-pickinest motherfucker on the planet.

So you dismiss 2010 and 2011 as they were higher than anything under Trump with your "trained monkey" thing and start the trend AFTER than and you accuse me of "cherry picking?" LOL!

[AZGrizFan]

Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 AVE
2009 299 364 475 416 388
2010 420 477 452 447 449
2011 436 454 468 432 447
2012 441 449 418 414 430
2013 405 419 410 422 414
2014 403 436 412 439 422
2015 391 431 397 411 407
2016 385 413 403 409 402
2017 408 446 397 456 439
2018 424 440 423 465 438
2019 402 415

I added a column for the annual average. Conclusion? Obama’s first two years (10, 11, when literally a trained monkey could have looked good given where the economy/country was starting from) of the recovery were good. The trend from there is NOT a good one—steadily downward until Trump took over and took off the shackles. Trump’s first two years (17, 18) added, on average, another 20,000-35,000 jobs PER QUARTER than Obama’s last 5 years. That’s an extra 80,000-140,000 jobs ANNUALLY in just manufacturing. But yeah, like the stock market, there’s no change in trajectory....

You are literally the cherry-pickinest motherfucker on the planet.

So you dismiss 2010 and 2011 as they were higher than anything under Trump with your "trained monkey" thing and start the trend AFTER than and you accuse me of "cherry picking?" LOL!

So you can’t refute the data, so you can only attack the verbiage?

Surely even YOU can see the trend change AFTER 2011. And once again, you want to anoint him for success during a time when literally ANYONE could have had that kind of success. Tell you what: I’ll give him full credit for 10 and 11 if YOU acknowledge there was a definite downward trend AFTER that point. And a positive trend change once Trump took office.

[Aho Old Guy]

Last 36 months: President Obummer
First 36 months: President Grifter


I don't get yer sheet, AZ. But if I did, I would simply point to the graph and (repeat after me in a Beavis voice),

"Heh heh . . . Linear Regression? Heh heh ..."

[AZGrizFan]

I don't get yer sheet, AZ. But if I did, I would simply point to the graph and (repeat after me in a Beavis voice),

"Heh heh . . . Linear Regression? Heh heh ..."

You don't get it? You don't understand averages?

[CAA Flagship]

At this point in the recovery, the fact that there are that many jobs being created is proof that Obama had weak hands.



There should not have been that much water left in the towel by the time 2017 and 2018 came around.

[CAA Flagship]

Obama's slow-play doesn't get any clearer than this:





https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/c ... on-economy

[JohnStOnge]

So you dismiss 2010 and 2011 as they were higher than anything under Trump with your "trained monkey" thing and start the trend AFTER than and you accuse me of "cherry picking?" LOL!

So you can’t refute the data, so you can only attack the verbiage?

Surely even YOU can see the trend change AFTER 2011. And once again, you want to anoint him for success during a time when literally ANYONE could have had that kind of success. Tell you what: I’ll give him full credit for 10 and 11 if YOU acknowledge there was a definite downward trend AFTER that point. And a positive trend change once Trump took office.

First of all, I don't agree with your premise that the President controls the situation to the extent of saying "that kind of success." Secondly I don't agree with your apparent premise that it's easier to take over when a crisis is going on than it is to take over when the economy has been in recovery for years and everything is humming along.

I can disagree with your approach because it does not consider all the post-Trump data. It ignores the first half of 2019; which is characterized by below average numbers. And in those data two quarters is 20% of the post-Trump data.

Now, I will tell you that I did a preliminary trend analysis using the quarterly data 2012 through 2 quarters of 2019. So far it looks like a downward trend throughout the period that slows down during 2017 through the first half of 2019. Since I did initially find a trend I have to do some other stuff to make sure it holds up. I'd have to get some notes i use to do that out and I don't feel like doing that right now.

If it does hold up it still leaves the question of how important it is at this point that the downward trend slowed if the mean 2012-2016 is not significantly different than that for 2017 through half of 2019. There hasn't been any dramatic surge in creation of manufacturing jobs. In fact if you've been paying attention to reports you know that's been slowing recently. Example at https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1028577666.

[JohnStOnge]

Obama's slow-play doesn't get any clearer than this:





https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/c ... on-economy

Those look pretty consistent with the belief that what's going on under Trump is a continuation of something that started back in 2009 or 2010.

[JohnStOnge]

Last 36 months: President Obummer
First 36 months: President Grifter


I don't get yer sheet, AZ. But if I did, I would simply point to the graph and (repeat after me in a Beavis voice),

"Heh heh . . . Linear Regression? Heh heh ..."

Would you not expect that if the economy has been adding around 200,000 jobs per month during that period that you would see the total number increase over time?

[Chizzang]

removal of corporate accountability with tax breaks and massive deregulation...
It's not rocket science