Coronavirus COVID-19

[kalm]

The Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles County is likely far more widespread than previously thought, up to an estimated 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.

USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that an estimated 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronav ... cases.html

I like the fear the spin on this is trying to conjure up. Let's ignore that way more people have had the Chinese Flu and the hospitals didn't become overwhelmed like the "experts" predicted. Oh, and it's still "early" in the pandemic.

Let's play a game. 4.1% across USA's adult population (25 years and older) is roughly 68% of 330M; is 225M. At 4.1% equates to 9.2M people have/had the Chinese Flu. Worldometer currently has US at 42.5k deaths. That puts the mortality rate at 0.46%.

I didn't tack on the known cases from worldometer but that would drop the mortality rate a tab bit more. Drops mre if you count 18 and up as adult (site I used below didn't break it down for 18 and up and I didn't bother looking for another source) Yeah, time to go back to work folks.

Using this for the population breakdown: https://www.indexmundi.com/united_state ... ofile.html

Did you read the entire article?

[kalm]

Sweden and now SC will be interesting case studies to watch...

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... BlogHeader

[mainejeff]

Trump needs to hold his live pep rallies.....immediately! Until he does that....#FakeOpenings.

[Ibanez]

Sweden and now SC will be interesting case studies to watch...

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... BlogHeader

How are you supposed to practice social distancing at a tattoo parlor? Nail salon? Massage parlor? Or the many other places Kemp re-opened?

i"m not surprised GA and SC are re-opening. Our Gov's suck off Trump more than a Russian lady of the evening and parrot his talking points as if they are original thoughts of their own. I'm not sure how you suddenly get populations to flip a switch and trust the government (after lamenting their decisions) and go back to a normal life. My family has been fortunate. We have been inconvenienced by this shutdown. We are still working (although my wife's contractor jobs dried up very quickly. she's still teaching.) Our daughter is home from school and honestly that's been great for her. Yeah, she's been getting lonely and has moments of boredom but she's gone from struggling with sight words to reading beginner books in 1 week due to being home and us having more time to actively engage her - that's something for the Positive thread, if it's not already there.

I am curious when the state will announce the re-opening of schools. With approx. 4 weeks left i'm not sure it's going to do much good. After a 6 week vacation, you'll lose 1-1.5 wks getting back into the rhythm and back on track. Maybe. For Pre-K kids, I'm not sure it'll do them any good, especially if their parents have been half as good as us and have not only exhausted the scheduled worksheets but have gone beyond that. FFS, Lil CCU showed an interest in math 3 weeks ago and now she's doing simple addition and subtraction.

Spoiler: show

It still amazes me that a Republican administration has purposefully sabotaged countless businesses and the economy over something like this. That isn't to take the threat lightly but the media hysteria plus the mystery of all this has turned this pandemic into a cluster fuck. Trump says you can get tested if you want to - he's proven wrong. Trump says he has total authority - wrong. Governors are going to market themselves to get equipment they need even though our Gov't says there's plenty. For all the hyperbole there is hardly an ounce of truth.

I get the frustration people feel. Honestly. Especially those that have new and/or small businesses. Those who have lost their jobs. It's a scary time.

[CAA Flagship]

Lil CCU showed an interest in math 3 weeks ago and now she's doing simple addition and subtraction.

I'll bet she can correctly solve: $500 million divided by 330 million people.

[Ibanez]

Lil CCU showed an interest in math 3 weeks ago and now she's doing simple addition and subtraction.

I'll bet she can correctly solve: $500 million divided by 330 million people.

We haven't started division yet. But probably.

[GannonFan]

On the first point, what would "strategic industry and domestic" for medical supply chain and manufacturing even look like? Sounds great, but the execution and details are pretty key. Knowing that you have the right "things" nationalized and domestic for whatever pandemic is coming down the road is the gamble. And even then do you have all the right things planned?

As for the second point, if it can start now, why don't we do that now? The answers will be the same 2 months from now, but we'll have 2 more months of economic misery to go through until then. 20M-30M unemployed people, at a minimum, is terrible. I know for some folks this isolation is just a bunch of binge watching on multiple streaming platforms or trying to cope with kids in the house 24/7, but for too many people it's desperation of where is the next meal coming from and how can I stay in my house kind of anxiety. My family hasn't had our income affected by this yet (and really we've made money as the kids netted me $500 each in the last relief package), but obviously many families are. We owe it to them to have a good reason why they need to wait 1-2 months to get back to work when they could do it now with the same restrictions now that they'll have in place 1-2 months from now when they do get back to work. What is the 1-2 months of economic misery buying us? I don't see those answers out there.

All fair points.

Here’s one of what I hope are many opening salvos into the economics that will inform rational decision making:

“But the dollars and cents of a virus are less intuitive. Rebelo uses a modified version of what’s known as an SIR model, an acronym for categories of people: susceptible, infected, and recovered. It simulates how a disease moves through a population based on how infectious and lethal it is, and how much contact people have with each other. To put a price on the results, Rebelo takes the number of predicted deaths and calculates an economic estimate of the value of the lost lives. The approach is similar to the price that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency used to gauge the costs and benefits of environmental regulations: $9.5 million per life.

His initial modeling efforts showed that even a yearlong lockdown makes economic sense, to allow time for a vaccine to be developed. The pause would shrink the economy by approximately 22%—a cost of $4.2 trillion. By comparison, the model shows that without containment measures, the economy would contract by about 7% over that year—but as many as 500,000 additional lives would be lost, which translates into a loss of roughly $6.1 trillion.

Andrew Atkeson, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles, agrees that the economics point strongly toward strict measures. If the epidemic is allowed to grow unhindered, he predicts the economy will grind to a halt anyway as people see an explosion of infections and stop going out. “Either you shut off the economy now and have people staying at home, or you let this thing rip and you have people staying at home scared,” he says.“


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... e-covid-19#

No offense to this Rebelo fellow, but that's just patently stupid. I'm sure he's fine with a yearlong shutdown, but it's that kind of tone-deaf, lack of real world comprehension, that makes a mockery of models like that. Who's going to feed all these people out of work? We have 22M out of work now - if we go another 48 weeks of shutdown don't you think that number will be a little higher? 30M? 50M? More? Nowhere in his calculations does he measure the damage done to people to be out of work for 12 months, so that's a fairly large gap in his model.

Like I said, and I'll repeat it here: We owe it to them (the most effected) to have a good reason why they need to wait 1-2 months to get back to work when they could do it now with the same restrictions now that they'll have in place 1-2 months from now when they do get back to work. What is the 1-2 months of economic misery buying us? I don't see those answers out there.

I'm still waiting to hear the answer to that. We know what we'll do to go back to work, we know what it will look like and it won't be with 20M tests a day nor will it be with a vaccine or a magical cure. It will be with what we're already doing today - temperature checks, masks on everyone, social distancing (one-way aisles in stores, limiting number of people in stores, spacing out people in restaurants and stadiums), frequent disinfecting, etc. We can do that today because, surprise, we're already doing that today in all the businesses that are open, which aren't minimal. Open them all up, open up the hospitals again and let people see their doctors and let them start elective surgeries and the like again. We know how to do this, waiting 1-2 months to start allowing people to do it is capricious and elitist.

[GannonFan]

BTW, a second study in a different area (this time in LA county) is showing that COVID infections are roughly 55 times higher than what the official count is (additional people either had no or little symptoms and did not know they had it). This is the second study I'm aware of that shows this phenomenon as an earlier study was by Stanford in the Santa Clara area, where they find the infection rate was 50 to 80 times higher than reported.

On the high end, and based on the 787,960 confirmed cases in the US today, that would mean more than 63 million people in America already have or have had Covid (so about 20% of the population), with a 0.07% mortality rate.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-a ... s_card_hed

[Gil Dobie]

So best case scenario, the country opens up in 42 days, around the end of May. Without too many NEW rules to complicate the transition.

[GannonFan]

So best case scenario, the country opens up in 42 days, around the end of May. Without too many NEW rules to complicate the transition.

You're not answering the question - why wait till the end of May to open up with the same restrictions that we have in place today and can implement today? What's magical about waiting 6 more weeks?

[CAA Flagship]

Like I said, and I'll repeat it here: We owe it to them (the most effected) to have a good reason why they need to wait 1-2 months to get back to work when they could do it now with the same restrictions now that they'll have in place 1-2 months from now when they do get back to work. What is the 1-2 months of economic misery buying us? I don't see those answers out there.

I'm still waiting to hear the answer to that. We know what we'll do to go back to work, we know what it will look like and it won't be with 20M tests a day nor will it be with a vaccine or a magical cure. It will be with what we're already doing today - temperature checks, masks on everyone, social distancing (one-way aisles in stores, limiting number of people in stores, spacing out people in restaurants and stadiums), frequent disinfecting, etc. We can do that today because, surprise, we're already doing that today in all the businesses that are open, which aren't minimal. Open them all up, open up the hospitals again and let people see their doctors and let them start elective surgeries and the like again. We know how to do this, waiting 1-2 months to start allowing people to do it is capricious and elitist.

Why do you think there are enough masks to go around today? Also, sanitizers and temperature devices? Just because your company has some, it doesn't mean everyone can get them. They are just not available to the scale that is needed right now. Make your own masks? They suck. Make your own sanitizer? Not trustworthy. A little more time is needed to get to that level.

[Gil Dobie]

So best case scenario, the country opens up in 42 days, around the end of May. Without too many NEW rules to complicate the transition.

You're not answering the question - why wait till the end of May to open up with the same restrictions that we have in place today and can implement today? What's magical about waiting 6 more weeks?

I wasn't answering any questions, just my view on Trumps plan. The Trump task force appears to be making sure there is not a resurgence of the virus.

[GannonFan]

Like I said, and I'll repeat it here: We owe it to them (the most effected) to have a good reason why they need to wait 1-2 months to get back to work when they could do it now with the same restrictions now that they'll have in place 1-2 months from now when they do get back to work. What is the 1-2 months of economic misery buying us? I don't see those answers out there.

I'm still waiting to hear the answer to that. We know what we'll do to go back to work, we know what it will look like and it won't be with 20M tests a day nor will it be with a vaccine or a magical cure. It will be with what we're already doing today - temperature checks, masks on everyone, social distancing (one-way aisles in stores, limiting number of people in stores, spacing out people in restaurants and stadiums), frequent disinfecting, etc. We can do that today because, surprise, we're already doing that today in all the businesses that are open, which aren't minimal. Open them all up, open up the hospitals again and let people see their doctors and let them start elective surgeries and the like again. We know how to do this, waiting 1-2 months to start allowing people to do it is capricious and elitist.

Why do you think there are enough masks to go around today? Also, sanitizers and temperature devices? Just because your company has some, it doesn't mean everyone can get them. They are just not available to the scale that is needed right now. Make your own masks? They suck. Make your own sanitizer? Not trustworthy. A little more time is needed to get to that level.

Anything other than a fit-tested, medical grade N-95 mask is just by its very nature not going to be effective. The masks my company are giving out each day aren't any more effective than a person doing one of those DIY folded bandanas with two rubber bands. They're a panacea for people desperate to have anything, but let's be honest, they might be good at stopping someone's cough or sneeze too close to you from actually getting on to you, but that's about it. Masks can be done today.

As for sanitizers and temperature devices, sure, I think they are harder to get. I don't see why that means businesses that can get them can't open. How would you make that determination on how much sanitizer and temperature gauges need to be available before everyone can start anyway? How would you even measure that? You can't, so the only logical step is to say you need these things to open, and then people open when they get those things. That's even more reason why we need to be making these calls now and not waiting to Gil's magical end of May date to say we can start - it will take time for some places to get what they need to open so if we wait until the end of May to start then some places won't open until well after that. Start telling people now that these are the things they need and they can open up as soon as they have them. Some will open now, some will open next week, but we'll have a lot more open by the end of May than we would if we just sit on our hands and needlessly delay till then.

[Ibanez]

You're not answering the question - why wait till the end of May to open up with the same restrictions that we have in place today and can implement today? What's magical about waiting 6 more weeks?

I wasn't answering any questions, just my view on Trumps plan. The Trump task force appears to be making sure there is not a resurgence of the virus.

One thing I haven't seen is any scientific or fact based reason for re-opening at this point, at least not in SC. It's all public sentiment driven. I haven't seen any report where we have seen a decrease in infections/deaths to suggest the country has reached its peaked. SC has. Our Gov has said that "data and science" are guiding him. But when pressed he couldn't give any details. Rather he pointed to "common sense" and compliance with social distancing. He's hoping people don't fall back into their normal patterns of NOT socially distancing themselves. He's expecting people to carry on like before.

Charlotte announced yesterday that they expect it to peak in late June. So I don't expect to go back into the office until at least July.

[CAA Flagship]

Why do you think there are enough masks to go around today? Also, sanitizers and temperature devices? Just because your company has some, it doesn't mean everyone can get them. They are just not available to the scale that is needed right now. Make your own masks? They suck. Make your own sanitizer? Not trustworthy. A little more time is needed to get to that level.

Anything other than a fit-tested, medical grade N-95 mask is just by its very nature not going to be effective. The masks my company are giving out each day aren't any more effective than a person doing one of those DIY folded bandanas with two rubber bands. They're a panacea for people desperate to have anything, but let's be honest, they might be good at stopping someone's cough or sneeze too close to you from actually getting on to you, but that's about it. Masks can be done today.

As for sanitizers and temperature devices, sure, I think they are harder to get. I don't see why that means businesses that can get them can't open. How would you make that determination on how much sanitizer and temperature gauges need to be available before everyone can start anyway? How would you even measure that? You can't, so the only logical step is to say you need these things to open, and then people open when they get those things. That's even more reason why we need to be making these calls now and not waiting to Gil's magical end of May date to say we can start - it will take time for some places to get what they need to open so if we wait until the end of May to start then some places won't open until well after that. Start telling people now that these are the things they need and they can open up as soon as they have them. Some will open now, some will open next week, but we'll have a lot more open by the end of May than we would if we just sit on our hands and needlessly delay till then.

I think the problem is that the medical community is still in need of supplies. I think they have resorted to extending the use and/or washing them to get by. If the Govt. tells people to start looking for supplies, that will put more pressure on the "front-line" people. Just about every aspect of this whole crisis has been nothing more than finding the best "middle ground".

[Ibanez]

Why do you think there are enough masks to go around today? Also, sanitizers and temperature devices? Just because your company has some, it doesn't mean everyone can get them. They are just not available to the scale that is needed right now. Make your own masks? They suck. Make your own sanitizer? Not trustworthy. A little more time is needed to get to that level.

Anything other than a fit-tested, medical grade N-95 mask is just by its very nature not going to be effective. The masks my company are giving out each day aren't any more effective than a person doing one of those DIY folded bandanas with two rubber bands. They're a panacea for people desperate to have anything, but let's be honest, they might be good at stopping someone's cough or sneeze too close to you from actually getting on to you, but that's about it. Masks can be done today.

As for sanitizers and temperature devices, sure, I think they are harder to get. I don't see why that means businesses that can get them can't open. How would you make that determination on how much sanitizer and temperature gauges need to be available before everyone can start anyway? How would you even measure that? You can't, so the only logical step is to say you need these things to open, and then people open when they get those things. That's even more reason why we need to be making these calls now and not waiting to Gil's magical end of May date to say we can start - it will take time for some places to get what they need to open so if we wait until the end of May to start then some places won't open until well after that. Start telling people now that these are the things they need and they can open up as soon as they have them. Some will open now, some will open next week, but we'll have a lot more open by the end of May than we would if we just sit on our hands and needlessly delay till then.

The point of the DIY mask is to protect others from you. You cough into it and it doesn't go beyond your mouth and mask. That's the point of it.

[GannonFan]

Anything other than a fit-tested, medical grade N-95 mask is just by its very nature not going to be effective. The masks my company are giving out each day aren't any more effective than a person doing one of those DIY folded bandanas with two rubber bands. They're a panacea for people desperate to have anything, but let's be honest, they might be good at stopping someone's cough or sneeze too close to you from actually getting on to you, but that's about it. Masks can be done today.

As for sanitizers and temperature devices, sure, I think they are harder to get. I don't see why that means businesses that can get them can't open. How would you make that determination on how much sanitizer and temperature gauges need to be available before everyone can start anyway? How would you even measure that? You can't, so the only logical step is to say you need these things to open, and then people open when they get those things. That's even more reason why we need to be making these calls now and not waiting to Gil's magical end of May date to say we can start - it will take time for some places to get what they need to open so if we wait until the end of May to start then some places won't open until well after that. Start telling people now that these are the things they need and they can open up as soon as they have them. Some will open now, some will open next week, but we'll have a lot more open by the end of May than we would if we just sit on our hands and needlessly delay till then.

The point of the DIY mask is to protect others from you. You cough into it and it doesn't go beyond your mouth and mask. That's the point of it.

I'm not disagreeing, although unless there's a membrane in your DIY mask, some part of that cough or sneeze will get through the fabric. Far less than if you had nothing, but far from perfect as well. Assuming you don't touch your mask and then touch a surface, or take your mask off and put it on a surface, then it's better than not having a mask.

[CAA Flagship]

Anything other than a fit-tested, medical grade N-95 mask is just by its very nature not going to be effective. The masks my company are giving out each day aren't any more effective than a person doing one of those DIY folded bandanas with two rubber bands. They're a panacea for people desperate to have anything, but let's be honest, they might be good at stopping someone's cough or sneeze too close to you from actually getting on to you, but that's about it. Masks can be done today.

As for sanitizers and temperature devices, sure, I think they are harder to get. I don't see why that means businesses that can get them can't open. How would you make that determination on how much sanitizer and temperature gauges need to be available before everyone can start anyway? How would you even measure that? You can't, so the only logical step is to say you need these things to open, and then people open when they get those things. That's even more reason why we need to be making these calls now and not waiting to Gil's magical end of May date to say we can start - it will take time for some places to get what they need to open so if we wait until the end of May to start then some places won't open until well after that. Start telling people now that these are the things they need and they can open up as soon as they have them. Some will open now, some will open next week, but we'll have a lot more open by the end of May than we would if we just sit on our hands and needlessly delay till then.

The point of the DIY mask is to protect others from you. You cough into it and it doesn't go beyond your mouth and mask. That's the point of it.

That is exactly what the CDC has been pushing for the last several weeks. I'm baffled as to why they shifted like that. People generally look out for "number 1". If you want them to wear masks, it makes sense to, at least, stress both "protection of others" AND "self protection".

[GannonFan]

I wasn't answering any questions, just my view on Trumps plan. The Trump task force appears to be making sure there is not a resurgence of the virus.

One thing I haven't seen is any scientific or fact based reason for re-opening at this point, at least not in SC. It's all public sentiment driven. I haven't seen any report where we have seen a decrease in infections/deaths to suggest the country has reached its peaked. SC has. Our Gov has said that "data and science" are guiding him. But when pressed he couldn't give any details. Rather he pointed to "common sense" and compliance with social distancing. He's hoping people don't fall back into their normal patterns of NOT socially distancing themselves. He's expecting people to carry on like before.

Charlotte announced yesterday that they expect it to peak in late June. So I don't expect to go back into the office until at least July.

The reason for opening is the 22M people already, with more to come, who are unemployed. If all of us could just hunker down in comfortable homes with plenty of food to eat and plenty of streaming services to watch and could take walks and exercise around our fabulous homes and communities and parks, then I'd say of course, no need to go back until deaths are down to zero and likely no need to go back ever. But in PA 1 in 5 people are unemployed - I think nationally it's 1 in 7. And it's going to get worse. I was listening to NPR yesterday and they had a social worker from Michigan on - she said calls about child abuse were down something like 70%-80% since the shut down orders were in place. While that may sound good, the reality is most of the calls about child abuse came from those children getting out of their homes and interacting with people from outside the home (teachers, bus drivers, other adults) who the kids could reach out to and have them report the abuse. So how do those kids, the 80% who aren't reporting anymore, feel about being shutdown? I'm sure it's not all Netflix and ice cream all day for them.

[GannonFan]

Anything other than a fit-tested, medical grade N-95 mask is just by its very nature not going to be effective. The masks my company are giving out each day aren't any more effective than a person doing one of those DIY folded bandanas with two rubber bands. They're a panacea for people desperate to have anything, but let's be honest, they might be good at stopping someone's cough or sneeze too close to you from actually getting on to you, but that's about it. Masks can be done today.

As for sanitizers and temperature devices, sure, I think they are harder to get. I don't see why that means businesses that can get them can't open. How would you make that determination on how much sanitizer and temperature gauges need to be available before everyone can start anyway? How would you even measure that? You can't, so the only logical step is to say you need these things to open, and then people open when they get those things. That's even more reason why we need to be making these calls now and not waiting to Gil's magical end of May date to say we can start - it will take time for some places to get what they need to open so if we wait until the end of May to start then some places won't open until well after that. Start telling people now that these are the things they need and they can open up as soon as they have them. Some will open now, some will open next week, but we'll have a lot more open by the end of May than we would if we just sit on our hands and needlessly delay till then.

I think the problem is that the medical community is still in need of supplies. I think they have resorted to extending the use and/or washing them to get by. If the Govt. tells people to start looking for supplies, that will put more pressure on the "front-line" people. Just about every aspect of this whole crisis has been nothing more than finding the best "middle ground".

We're already at that point now and have been for weeks really. PPE like protective suits aren't really going to see competition between the barber and the local hospital. And DIY masks are just as effective as non-test fitted PPE (i.e. NOT N95 masks,NOT partial or full face respirators, etc) so again, no competition. Sanitizers, sure, but I don't hear that complaint from the medical community at this point.

[Baldy]

Mmmm hmmm, it was.

Wrong Deplorable.

It was FAKE, Jacobin.

[Ibanez]

One thing I haven't seen is any scientific or fact based reason for re-opening at this point, at least not in SC. It's all public sentiment driven. I haven't seen any report where we have seen a decrease in infections/deaths to suggest the country has reached its peaked. SC has. Our Gov has said that "data and science" are guiding him. But when pressed he couldn't give any details. Rather he pointed to "common sense" and compliance with social distancing. He's hoping people don't fall back into their normal patterns of NOT socially distancing themselves. He's expecting people to carry on like before.

Charlotte announced yesterday that they expect it to peak in late June. So I don't expect to go back into the office until at least July.

The reason for opening is the 22M people already, with more to come, who are unemployed. If all of us could just hunker down in comfortable homes with plenty of food to eat and plenty of streaming services to watch and could take walks and exercise around our fabulous homes and communities and parks, then I'd say of course, no need to go back until deaths are down to zero and likely no need to go back ever. But in PA 1 in 5 people are unemployed - I think nationally it's 1 in 7. And it's going to get worse. I was listening to NPR yesterday and they had a social worker from Michigan on - she said calls about child abuse were down something like 70%-80% since the shut down orders were in place. While that may sound good, the reality is most of the calls about child abuse came from those children getting out of their homes and interacting with people from outside the home (teachers, bus drivers, other adults) who the kids could reach out to and have them report the abuse. So how do those kids, the 80% who aren't reporting anymore, feel about being shutdown? I'm sure it's not all Netflix and ice cream all day for them.

There's another, economic, reason to re-open sooner rather than later - unemployment insurance. UI costs billions $$$. Billions which states aren't currently replenishing b/c nobody is working at pre-COVID19 levels. If you re-open businesses, you can get people off unemployment as well as deny unemployment to those that work at a business that has been re-opened ( even if you don't want to return due to health fears). Georgia, like many other states, is experiencing higher than normal claims. They've had something like a 2,000+ increase. I'm guess that once Kemp opens up retail and many other businesses that are staffed by low income people, that those people will no longer be in an involuntary unemployment status and won't be able to receive the benefit. Even with the CARE act, payments are 1-2 weeks late due to staffing shortages. The state is projected to have a $1B shortfall this year and $4B for FY2021 (which begins in July.)

On top of that, Ga also has one of the lowest sin taxes and income taxes in the country. In fact, it's capped by a constitutional amendment. Kemp is doing all he can to save money, possibly at the expense of the poorest, in order to not raise taxes which the state will desperately need.

South Carolina has been cutting UI taxes for almost 10 yrs. I suspect we're about to have the same problem. UI applications have increased 4,000% in South Carolina since March 14 while we have cut the budget by 34%. We are going to be screwed.

[Baldy]

Sweden and now SC will be interesting case studies to watch...

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... BlogHeader

How are you supposed to practice social distancing at a tattoo parlor? Nail salon? Massage parlor? Or the many other places Kemp re-opened?

i"m not surprised GA and SC are re-opening. Our Gov's suck off Trump more than a Russian lady of the evening and parrot his talking points as if they are original thoughts of their own. I'm not sure how you suddenly get populations to flip a switch and trust the government (after lamenting their decisions) and go back to a normal life. My family has been fortunate. We have been inconvenienced by this shutdown. We are still working (although my wife's contractor jobs dried up very quickly. she's still teaching.) Our daughter is home from school and honestly that's been great for her. Yeah, she's been getting lonely and has moments of boredom but she's gone from struggling with sight words to reading beginner books in 1 week due to being home and us having more time to actively engage her - that's something for the Positive thread, if it's not already there.

I am curious when the state will announce the re-opening of schools. With approx. 4 weeks left i'm not sure it's going to do much good. After a 6 week vacation, you'll lose 1-1.5 wks getting back into the rhythm and back on track. Maybe. For Pre-K kids, I'm not sure it'll do them any good, especially if their parents have been half as good as us and have not only exhausted the scheduled worksheets but have gone beyond that. FFS, Lil CCU showed an interest in math 3 weeks ago and now she's doing simple addition and subtraction.

Spoiler: show

It still amazes me that a Republican administration has purposefully sabotaged countless businesses and the economy over something like this. That isn't to take the threat lightly but the media hysteria plus the mystery of all this has turned this pandemic into a cluster fuck. Trump says you can get tested if you want to - he's proven wrong. Trump says he has total authority - wrong. Governors are going to market themselves to get equipment they need even though our Gov't says there's plenty. For all the hyperbole there is hardly an ounce of truth.

I get the frustration people feel. Honestly. Especially those that have new and/or small businesses. Those who have lost their jobs. It's a scary time.

Calm down, Karen.

In an ideal world, yes we would and could wait. When Bank of America and the like puts a moratorium in place to not collect loan payments and put food on their table, then rant away. Otherwise, most of these people have bills to pay. Take a chance with the virus or sit by and watch everything they have worked for slowly fade away?

[GannonFan]

The reason for opening is the 22M people already, with more to come, who are unemployed. If all of us could just hunker down in comfortable homes with plenty of food to eat and plenty of streaming services to watch and could take walks and exercise around our fabulous homes and communities and parks, then I'd say of course, no need to go back until deaths are down to zero and likely no need to go back ever. But in PA 1 in 5 people are unemployed - I think nationally it's 1 in 7. And it's going to get worse. I was listening to NPR yesterday and they had a social worker from Michigan on - she said calls about child abuse were down something like 70%-80% since the shut down orders were in place. While that may sound good, the reality is most of the calls about child abuse came from those children getting out of their homes and interacting with people from outside the home (teachers, bus drivers, other adults) who the kids could reach out to and have them report the abuse. So how do those kids, the 80% who aren't reporting anymore, feel about being shutdown? I'm sure it's not all Netflix and ice cream all day for them.

There's another, economic, reason to re-open sooner rather than later - unemployment insurance. UI costs billions $$$. Billions which states aren't currently replenishing b/c nobody is working at pre-COVID19 levels. If you re-open businesses, you can get people off unemployment as well as deny unemployment to those that work at a business that has been re-opened ( even if you don't want to return due to health fears). Georgia, like many other states, is experiencing higher than normal claims. They've had something like a 2,000+ increase. I'm guess that once Kemp opens up retail and many other businesses that are staffed by low income people, that those people will no longer be in an involuntary unemployment status and won't be able to receive the benefit. Even with the CARE act, payments are 1-2 weeks late due to staffing shortages. The state is projected to have a $1B shortfall this year and $4B for FY2021 (which begins in July.)

On top of that, Ga also has one of the lowest sin taxes and income taxes in the country. In fact, it's capped by a constitutional amendment. Kemp is doing all he can to save money, possibly at the expense of the poorest, in order to not raise taxes which the state will desperately need.

South Carolina has been cutting UI taxes for almost 10 yrs. I suspect we're about to have the same problem. UI applications have increased 4,000% in South Carolina since March 14 while we have cut the budget by 34%. We are going to be screwed.

Absolutely - unless the federal government is going to assume full payroll for upwards to 30M people for the next month or two, then the only option is to get people back to work. UI in any state was never going to be able to handle a surge like this - UI is meant to handle the gradual ebb and flow of unemployment, not a historic upswing like this. The more people that can get back to work is like a double good thing - one is they get off of needing the unemployment benefit and two is that they start earning a salary again and they start contributing, through taxes, back into the UI coffers. I don't know why I'm not included in the list of front-line heroes - by me working through this pandemic I'm contributing my taxes to the greater good everyday.

[Ibanez]

How are you supposed to practice social distancing at a tattoo parlor? Nail salon? Massage parlor? Or the many other places Kemp re-opened?

i"m not surprised GA and SC are re-opening. Our Gov's suck off Trump more than a Russian lady of the evening and parrot his talking points as if they are original thoughts of their own. I'm not sure how you suddenly get populations to flip a switch and trust the government (after lamenting their decisions) and go back to a normal life. My family has been fortunate. We have been inconvenienced by this shutdown. We are still working (although my wife's contractor jobs dried up very quickly. she's still teaching.) Our daughter is home from school and honestly that's been great for her. Yeah, she's been getting lonely and has moments of boredom but she's gone from struggling with sight words to reading beginner books in 1 week due to being home and us having more time to actively engage her - that's something for the Positive thread, if it's not already there.

I am curious when the state will announce the re-opening of schools. With approx. 4 weeks left i'm not sure it's going to do much good. After a 6 week vacation, you'll lose 1-1.5 wks getting back into the rhythm and back on track. Maybe. For Pre-K kids, I'm not sure it'll do them any good, especially if their parents have been half as good as us and have not only exhausted the scheduled worksheets but have gone beyond that. FFS, Lil CCU showed an interest in math 3 weeks ago and now she's doing simple addition and subtraction.

Spoiler: show

It still amazes me that a Republican administration has purposefully sabotaged countless businesses and the economy over something like this. That isn't to take the threat lightly but the media hysteria plus the mystery of all this has turned this pandemic into a cluster fuck. Trump says you can get tested if you want to - he's proven wrong. Trump says he has total authority - wrong. Governors are going to market themselves to get equipment they need even though our Gov't says there's plenty. For all the hyperbole there is hardly an ounce of truth.

I get the frustration people feel. Honestly. Especially those that have new and/or small businesses. Those who have lost their jobs. It's a scary time.

Calm down, Karen.

In an ideal world, yes we would and could wait. When Bank of America and the like puts a moratorium in place to not collect loan payments and put food on their table, then rant away. Otherwise, most of these people have bills to pay. Take a chance with the virus or sit by and watch everything they have worked for slowly fade away?

Settle yourself, Sally. I've said from the beginning that any decision to close/open is damned if you do and damned if you don't. Common sense tells you that you can't practice socially distancing in many businesses. There are 2 bad decisions yet one has to be made.