Coronavirus COVID-19

[Winterborn]

Oh FFS. It's only a month since Sturgis. Stop. Do the math.

And what is "public health costs"?

I took it as a projection. It could go down but it could also go up.

That is a good way to take it.

Based on other peer-reviewed studies/research papers I have read in the past I would very much question the impartiality of the "study". To many assumptions by the authors to be much more than a piece designed to be used by media individuals and not to further research/knowledge into COVID, IMHO.

According to South Dakota health officials, 124 new cases in the state—including one fatal case—were directly linked to the rally. Overall, COVID-19 cases linked to the Sturgis rally were reported in 11 states as of September 2, to a tune of at least 260 new cases, according to The Washington Post.

There very well may be more cases that have been linked to the early August event, but so far, that's only 260 confirmed cases—about 0.1 percent of the number the IZA paper offers.

To get to the astronomical number of cases allegedly spread because of the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, the researchers analyzed "anonymized cellphone data to track the smartphone pings from non-residents and movement of those before and after the event," notes Newsweek. "The study then linked those who attended and traveled back to their home states, and compared changes in coronavirus trends after the rally's conclusion."

Essentially, the researchers assumed that new spikes in cases in areas where people went post-rally must have been caused by those rally attendees, despite there being no particular evidence that this was the case. The paper, which has not been peer-reviewed, failed to account for simultaneous happenings—like schools in South Dakota reopening, among other things—that could have contributed to coronavirus spread in some of the studied areas.

https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-st ... rus-cases/

[Winterborn]

Baldy beat me to it.

[CAA Flagship]

I'm pretty sure what they did was take 250,000 and multiply it by an average hospitalization cost. That would be ridiculous because only a small fraction of them would require hospitalization. And of that fraction, not all are using "public health costs". So fuck that guy.

That would be about $50/case. So you’re saying it’s more?

I think you are off by three decimal places. It's more like $48,000/case.
Now do you see the problem?

[UNI88]

That would be about $50/case. So you’re saying it’s more?

I think you are off by three decimal places. It's more like $48,000/case.
Now do you see the problem?

Did he misread the billions as millions?

[kalm]

I think you are off by three decimal places. It's more like $48,000/case.
Now do you see the problem?

Did he misread the billions as millions?

My calculator only goes to 100,000,000’s.

[SDHornet]

These people know Trump isn't the guy actually making the vaccine, right?

All she's saying is that she's not going to take Trump's word for it and will listen to medical experts. That seems pretty reasonable. Trump does pretty much lie every time he opens his mouth. Why would any sane person take his word for anything?

Here's Fauci vouching for Trump following the task force advice and how it didn't differ much from what he said to the public. Look for another narrative to use.

[SDHornet]

Did he misread the billions as millions?

My calculator only goes to 100,000,000’s.

[SDHornet]

[CAA Flagship]

Did he misread the billions as millions?

My calculator only goes to 100,000,000’s.

>>>WU

[HI54UNI]

[89Hen]

For Jelly...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tr_story_1

Coronavirus is now spreading rapidly again across the U.K. for the first time since March, prompting new restrictions in Birmingham, the country’s second biggest city.

Government figures put the so-called “R” rate -- the reproduction number that shows how fast the virus multiplies -- between 1.0 and 1.2, driven by a surge in cases among younger people. The virus is spreading exponentially when R is above 1.

[JohnStOnge]

Some data is starting to come in from Sturgis....

You actually believe that “study”
More holes in it than swiss cheese.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2 ... 0aa3c225a8

I think many of the points that guy made are valid but I also think he was somewhat disingenuous. He appears to be a fan of mechanistic models. The problem with mechanistic models is that you need to be correct about the mechanisms. I think statistical models are better so long as they are not used to try to predict things outside of the ranges of the data used to construct them.

[Skjellyfetti]

What was set to be the first game of the season for the Virginia Tech Hokies and Virginia Cavaliers is no longer happening as scheduled, according to an official announcement made by the Virginia Tech Athletics Department.

The Commonwealth Cup Rivalry affair between the two-instate Virginia programs was tentatively set for September 19, as part of the ACC altered model. Due to unforeseen circumstances regarding COVID-19, both teams have agreed to reschedule the matchup for a later date in the season.

This comes on the heels of an announcement that Virginia Tech and Virginia would receive a prime-time slot on ABC at 7:30 PM.

https://247sports.com/college/virginia- ... 151349340/

[Skjellyfetti]

The health department’s politically appointed communications aides have demanded the right to review and seek changes to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s weekly scientific reports charting the progress of the coronavirus pandemic, in what officials characterized as an attempt to intimidate the reports’ authors and water down their communications to health professionals.

In some cases, emails from communications aides to CDC Director Robert Redfield and other senior officials openly complained that the agency’s reports would undermine President Donald Trump's optimistic messages about the outbreak, according to emails reviewed by POLITICO and three people familiar with the situation.

CDC officials have fought back against the most sweeping changes, but have increasingly agreed to allow the political officials to review the reports and, in a few cases, compromised on the wording, according to three people familiar with the exchanges. The communications aides’ efforts to change the language in the CDC’s reports have been constant across the summer and continued as recently as Friday afternoon.

The CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports are authored by career scientists and serve as the main vehicle for the agency to inform doctors, researchers and the general public about how Covid-19 is spreading and who is at risk. Such reports have historically been published with little fanfare and no political interference, said several longtime health department officials, and have been viewed as a cornerstone of the nation's public health work for decades.

But since Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign official with no medical or scientific background, was installed in April as the health department's new spokesperson, there have been substantial efforts to align the reports with Trump's statements, including the president's claims that fears about the outbreak are overstated, or stop the reports altogether.

Caputo and his team have attempted to add caveats to the CDC's findings, including an effort to retroactively change agency reports that they said wrongly inflated the risks of Covid-19 and should have made clear that Americans sickened by the virus may have been infected because of their own behavior, according to the individuals familiar with the situation and emails reviewed by POLITICO.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/1 ... -19-412809

[SDHornet]

Shocker.

[SDHornet]

[∞∞∞]

New York City is a dense population center which was hit when the public knew little of the virus, the virus' effects, or effective methods to treat it. Perhaps you can't remember, but doctors and nurses all over the world were basically treating this thing on the fly and experimenting how to best save people. Encouraging mask use and social distancing weren't a thing before the virus had infiltrated NYC either. We also had no testing or contact tracing resources available, and a federal government which didn't do anything for months.

Which is quite unfortunate, because as we now know, intelligence and health officials had warned the President about the severity late last year and he sat on the information instead of treating citizens like adults.

DeSantis has been absolute garbage because people are dying on his watch months after the fact. We know exactly what government and citizens need to do in order to depress the virus, yet Florida is looking the other way and in many cases making it worse, despite having months of available information and a less dense population. On a positive note - no thanks to DeSantis - at least doctors and nurses have a better grasp how to save patients, and testing is more widely available. All the credit goes to healthcare workers and scientists.

[kalm]

New York City is a dense population center which was hit when the public knew little of the virus, the virus' effects, or effective methods to treat it. Perhaps you can't remember, but doctors and nurses all over the world were basically treating this thing on the fly and experimenting how to best save people. Encouraging mask use and social distancing weren't a thing before the virus had infiltrated NYC either. We also had no testing or contact tracing resources available, and a federal government which didn't do anything for months.

Which is quite unfortunate, because as we now know, intelligence and health officials had warned the President about the severity late last year and he sat on the information instead of treating citizens like adults.

DeSantis has been absolute garbage because people are dying on his watch months after the fact. We know exactly what government and citizens need to do in order to depress the virus, yet Florida is looking the other way and in many cases making it worse, despite having months of available information and a less dense population. On a positive note - no thanks to DeSantis - at least doctors and nurses have a better grasp how to save patients, and testing is more widely available. All the credit goes to healthcare workers and scientists.

That’s the part that’s been conveniently forgotten all along. What would the numbers be if we’d done nothing in regards to preventative measures? Not to say every governor would like a do-over and some made huge mistakes were made but NYC, Italy, etc. ironically are proof of the difference between what the deniers thought early on and how many lives were saved.

[89Hen]

the deniers

[∞∞∞]

the deniers

I hope you can see the problem when the Trump administration had warnings from top intelligence, security, and health officials about the severity of the virus late last year and never shared it with Congress, Governors, the public, or anyone.

Look at the beginning of this thread; none of us were taking it seriously (some still to this day). It was too late when we began to learn how bad it was, but a mark of intelligence and empathy is accepting new information and adapting to it.

Trump not only purposefully hid life and death information from everyday Americans and their leaders, but continued to undermine efforts for months afterwards. And because he has a large cult following who will defend him to the death (literally with this pandemic), it made things significantly worse for the rest of us taking the virus seriously and doing our duty as Americans to protect each other.

[UNI88]

New York City is a dense population center which was hit when the public knew little of the virus, the virus' effects, or effective methods to treat it. Perhaps you can't remember, but doctors and nurses all over the world were basically treating this thing on the fly and experimenting how to best save people. Encouraging mask use and social distancing weren't a thing before the virus had infiltrated NYC either. We also had no testing or contact tracing resources available, and a federal government which didn't do anything for months.

Which is quite unfortunate, because as we now know, intelligence and health officials had warned the President about the severity late last year and he sat on the information instead of treating citizens like adults.

DeSantis has been absolute garbage because people are dying on his watch months after the fact. We know exactly what government and citizens need to do in order to depress the virus, yet Florida is looking the other way and in many cases making it worse, despite having months of available information and a less dense population. On a positive note - no thanks to DeSantis - at least doctors and nurses have a better grasp how to save patients, and testing is more widely available. All the credit goes to healthcare workers and scientists.

You're comparing New York to Florida not Wyoming. Yes NYC is an an urban center with lots of international travel but Miami is no slouch in that regard. Florida's other large cities (Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando) dwarf New York's - Orlando isn't nearly as dense but I believe it has more visitors than NYC. Florida and New York are similar in total population and geographic size. Stop trying to rationalize and absolve Cuomo (and other Democrat's) of his mistakes while holding Republicans responsible (Trump, DeSantis, etc.). Everyone has made mistakes and a huge part of the problem is too many people want to blame the other side rather than working together to resolve this.

[∞∞∞]

New York City is a dense population center which was hit when the public knew little of the virus, the virus' effects, or effective methods to treat it. Perhaps you can't remember, but doctors and nurses all over the world were basically treating this thing on the fly and experimenting how to best save people. Encouraging mask use and social distancing weren't a thing before the virus had infiltrated NYC either. We also had no testing or contact tracing resources available, and a federal government which didn't do anything for months.

Which is quite unfortunate, because as we now know, intelligence and health officials had warned the President about the severity late last year and he sat on the information instead of treating citizens like adults.

DeSantis has been absolute garbage because people are dying on his watch months after the fact. We know exactly what government and citizens need to do in order to depress the virus, yet Florida is looking the other way and in many cases making it worse, despite having months of available information and a less dense population. On a positive note - no thanks to DeSantis - at least doctors and nurses have a better grasp how to save patients, and testing is more widely available. All the credit goes to healthcare workers and scientists.

You're comparing New York to Florida not Wyoming. Yes NYC is an an urban center with lots of international travel but Miami is no slouch in that regard. Florida's other large cities (Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando) dwarf New York's - Orlando isn't nearly as dense but I believe it has more visitors than NYC. Florida and New York are similar in total population and geographic size. Stop trying to rationalize and absolve Cuomo (and other Democrat's) of his mistakes while holding Republicans responsible (Trump, DeSantis, etc.). Everyone has made mistakes and a huge part of the problem is too many people want to blame the other side rather than working together to resolve this.

Really latching on to the density thing there instead of everything else, but we can play. NYC is the densest city in the United States, 3x denser than the densest in Florida (Tampa Bay), and the 8x more populous than the most populous in Florida (Jacksonville). In fact, NYC alone is bigger than the 22+ largest cities in Florida combined and would be 38% of Florida's entire population.

I'm sure you travel; you can see it with your eyes: the density and population of NYC is nothing like Florida.

And let's be honest, most Americans are working towards the same thing but people like Trump and DeSantis are making things worse.

[SDHornet]

New York City is a dense population center which was hit when the public knew little of the virus, the virus' effects, or effective methods to treat it. Perhaps you can't remember, but doctors and nurses all over the world were basically treating this thing on the fly and experimenting how to best save people. Encouraging mask use and social distancing weren't a thing before the virus had infiltrated NYC either. We also had no testing or contact tracing resources available, and a federal government which didn't do anything for months.

Which is quite unfortunate, because as we now know, intelligence and health officials had warned the President about the severity late last year and he sat on the information instead of treating citizens like adults.

DeSantis has been absolute garbage because people are dying on his watch months after the fact. We know exactly what government and citizens need to do in order to depress the virus, yet Florida is looking the other way and in many cases making it worse, despite having months of available information and a less dense population. On a positive note - no thanks to DeSantis - at least doctors and nurses have a better grasp how to save patients, and testing is more widely available. All the credit goes to healthcare workers and scientists.

Except SF, 2nd most dense city in America is sitting at 89 deaths (22nd highest county in CA) and 10,133 positive cases (17th highest county in CA). SF would have been completely ravaged (high homeless population as well) if the China Virus was as bad as claimed.

Funny to see you defend Deblasio's horrific handling of this why being one of the more vocal folks blaming this whole thing on Trump's handling of the China Virus as well. Good luck with those mental gymnastics. The data is not on your side regarding this absurd post.

[SDHornet]

New York City is a dense population center which was hit when the public knew little of the virus, the virus' effects, or effective methods to treat it. Perhaps you can't remember, but doctors and nurses all over the world were basically treating this thing on the fly and experimenting how to best save people. Encouraging mask use and social distancing weren't a thing before the virus had infiltrated NYC either. We also had no testing or contact tracing resources available, and a federal government which didn't do anything for months.

Which is quite unfortunate, because as we now know, intelligence and health officials had warned the President about the severity late last year and he sat on the information instead of treating citizens like adults.

DeSantis has been absolute garbage because people are dying on his watch months after the fact. We know exactly what government and citizens need to do in order to depress the virus, yet Florida is looking the other way and in many cases making it worse, despite having months of available information and a less dense population. On a positive note - no thanks to DeSantis - at least doctors and nurses have a better grasp how to save patients, and testing is more widely available. All the credit goes to healthcare workers and scientists.

You're comparing New York to Florida not Wyoming. Yes NYC is an an urban center with lots of international travel but Miami is no slouch in that regard. Florida's other large cities (Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando) dwarf New York's - Orlando isn't nearly as dense but I believe it has more visitors than NYC. Florida and New York are similar in total population and geographic size. Stop trying to rationalize and absolve Cuomo (and other Democrat's) of his mistakes while holding Republicans responsible (Trump, DeSantis, etc.). Everyone has made mistakes and a huge part of the problem is too many people want to blame the other side rather than working together to resolve this.

Yup. And how many folks from the Northeast left to FL and other parts of the south to leave NYC? The double standard and blatant disregard of the data when issuing criticism on this matter along political lines is quite hilarious.

[SDHornet]

You're comparing New York to Florida not Wyoming. Yes NYC is an an urban center with lots of international travel but Miami is no slouch in that regard. Florida's other large cities (Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando) dwarf New York's - Orlando isn't nearly as dense but I believe it has more visitors than NYC. Florida and New York are similar in total population and geographic size. Stop trying to rationalize and absolve Cuomo (and other Democrat's) of his mistakes while holding Republicans responsible (Trump, DeSantis, etc.). Everyone has made mistakes and a huge part of the problem is too many people want to blame the other side rather than working together to resolve this.

Really latching on to the density thing there instead of everything else, but we can play. NYC is the densest city in the United States, 3x denser than the densest in Florida (Tampa Bay), and the 8x more populous than the most populous in Florida (Jacksonville). In fact, NYC alone is bigger than the 22+ largest cities in Florida combined and would be 38% of Florida's entire population.

I'm sure you travel; you can see it with your eyes: the density and population of NYC is nothing like Florida.

And let's be honest, most Americans are working towards the same thing but people like Trump and DeSantis are making things worse.

Cool story bro, now do SF.