2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

40 days until Election Day..
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Re: 2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

Mail in ballots foubd thrown away in Luzerne County, PA. They all just happended to be mitary ballots for Trump...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB19oDjB
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:21 pm Mail in ballots foubd thrown away in Luzerne County, PA. They all just happended to be mitary ballots for Trump...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB19oDjB
From my understanding, they were naked ballots, meaning that they are supposed to be put in a security envelope first, then placed in the envelop for mailing. Apparently when the envelops where opened, they were not in the security envelop and thus had to be discarded due to the voter's choice being revealed before it was supposed to be revealed.

Of course this was an article I read and the author admitted that it was speculation on their part, so my understanding becomes second hand speculation! :lol: Just like the Ukranian impeachment.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Col Hogan »

“Tolerance and Apathy are the last virtues of a dying society.” Aristotle

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

Col Hogan wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:21 pm
WA electoral map is a smaller version of the US. Round up Lincoln, Adams, Garfield, Asotin, and Ferry together and they are less than half the population of Bellevue combined.

I’m perfectly fine with the political and cultural mix.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:21 pm Mail in ballots foubd thrown away in Luzerne County, PA. They all just happended to be mitary ballots for Trump...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB19oDjB
Is MSN a trustworthy source? I'm having trouble keeping up with which MSM media we can trust. Or is a story by story basis?
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

Ibanez wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:56 am
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:21 pm Mail in ballots foubd thrown away in Luzerne County, PA. They all just happended to be mitary ballots for Trump...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB19oDjB
Is MSN a trustworthy source? I'm having trouble keeping up with which MSM media we can trust. Or is a story by story basis?
I used a left leaning source to point out a problem in a local with mail in ballots, what has been a complaint coming mostly from the right. That way no one on the left can discount it because of using a conservative outlet..
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:18 am
Ibanez wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:56 am

Is MSN a trustworthy source? I'm having trouble keeping up with which MSM media we can trust. Or is a story by story basis?
I used a left leaning source to point out a problem in a local with mail in ballots, what has been a complaint coming mostly from the right. That way no one on the left can discount it because of using a conservative outlet..
So it's a story by story basis, got it. :thumb:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

Ibanez wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:44 am
BDKJMU wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:18 am
I used a left leaning source to point out a problem in a local with mail in ballots, what has been a complaint coming mostly from the right. That way no one on the left can discount it because of using a conservative outlet..
So it's a story by story basis, got it. :thumb:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

Jelly posted in the Donk Convention Thread a week+ back, but don't believe the schedule has been posted in the Gen Election thread. Remaining debates:

Vice Presidential Debate
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
9 pm to 10:30 pm ET
Moderator: Susan Page (USA Today)
Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris
The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

Debate Format:
The Vice Presidential debate between Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris will be divided into nine segments of approximately 10 minutes each. The moderator, Susan Page, will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The remaining time will be used for further discussion fostered by the moderator.

Second Presidential Debate
Thursday, October 15, 2020
9 pm to 10:30 pm ET
Moderator: Steve Scully (C-SPAN)
President Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden
The Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts, Miami, FL

Debate Format:
The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which the questions will be asked by citizens from the South Florida area. The candidates will have two minutes to respond to each question and there will be an additional minute for the moderator, Steve Scully, to facilitate further discussion. The town meeting participants will be uncommitted voters selected under the supervision of Dr. Frank Newport, Senior Scientist, Gallup.

Third Presidential Debate
Thursday, October 22, 2020
9 pm to 10:30 pm ET
Moderator: Kristen Welker (NBC News)
President Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden
Belmont University, Nashville, TN

Debate Format:
The third Trump-Biden debate will be an identical format to the first debate with moderator Kristen Welker facilitating the discussion and asking the questions.

*Note: The First Presidential debate was originally scheduled to take place at the University Notre Dame but the venue was changed due to concerns over Coronavirus.
*Note: The Second Presidential debate was originally scheduled to take place at the University of Michigan but the venue was changed due to concerns over Coronavirus.
https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews. ... -schedule/
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

Oh good, two more screaming matches
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:21 pm Mail in ballots foubd thrown away in Luzerne County, PA. They all just happended to be mitary ballots for Trump...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB19oDjB
All other things aside, this incident involves something we have been doing for a very long time. It's military ballots. Are Trump and his allies suggesting we should not allow military who are deployed away from home to vote by mail?
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

Just posting to say that we are again in a situation in which, right now at least, this would not be a lock for Biden even if we weren't dealing with the additional uncertainty introduced by all the mail in voting due to COVID-19. Right now, the 538 forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/ indicates 78% confidence that Biden will win the Electoral College. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to conclude that Biden will win.

When you get to 90% confidence you can start to say there may be sufficient evidence. Sometimes, by convention, that is done. But most of the time it takes 95% confidence.

For historical reference: On election eve 2012 the 538 forecast indicated 90% confidence that Obama would beat Romney.

This is, again, very up in the air. If you care about the country you need to get out and vote for Biden. If you like Trump you need to go on a three month vacation to Australia or New Zealand and don't vote absentee. This country really, really needs to get rid of Trump as well as the Republican enablers who have been sticking with him through all the corruption that has been going on.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Pwns »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:46 pm Just posting to say that we are again in a situation in which, right now at least, this would not be a lock for Biden even if we weren't dealing with the additional uncertainty introduced by all the mail in voting due to COVID-19. Right now, the 538 forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/ indicates 78% confidence that Biden will win the Electoral College. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to conclude that Biden will win.

When you get to 90% confidence you can start to say there may be sufficient evidence. Sometimes, by convention, that is done. But most of the time it takes 95% confidence.

For historical reference: On election eve 2012 the 538 forecast indicated 90% confidence that Obama would beat Romney.

This is, again, very up in the air. If you care about the country you need to get out and vote for Biden. If you like Trump you need to go on a three month vacation to Australia or New Zealand and don't vote absentee. This country really, really needs to get rid of Trump as well as the Republican enablers who have been sticking with him through all the corruption that has been going on.
I'm curious as to how Five Thirty Eight estimates the polling error correlation across states (or counties or whatever). I think it's higher than what they think it is, which is why Trump in 2016 can win a number of electoral votes that was supposed to be highly unlikely.

What I mean by "polling error correlation" is that if the outcome in 1 state is more favorable to Trump than polls indicate, other states are more than likely going to be favorable to Trump and vice versa.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

Pwns wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:08 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:46 pm Just posting to say that we are again in a situation in which, right now at least, this would not be a lock for Biden even if we weren't dealing with the additional uncertainty introduced by all the mail in voting due to COVID-19. Right now, the 538 forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/ indicates 78% confidence that Biden will win the Electoral College. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to conclude that Biden will win.

When you get to 90% confidence you can start to say there may be sufficient evidence. Sometimes, by convention, that is done. But most of the time it takes 95% confidence.

For historical reference: On election eve 2012 the 538 forecast indicated 90% confidence that Obama would beat Romney.

This is, again, very up in the air. If you care about the country you need to get out and vote for Biden. If you like Trump you need to go on a three month vacation to Australia or New Zealand and don't vote absentee. This country really, really needs to get rid of Trump as well as the Republican enablers who have been sticking with him through all the corruption that has been going on.
I'm curious as to how Five Thirty Eight estimates the polling error correlation across states (or counties or whatever). I think it's higher than what they think it is, which is why Trump in 2016 can win a number of electoral votes that was supposed to be highly unlikely.

What I mean by "polling error correlation" is that if the outcome in 1 state is more favorable to Trump than polls indicate, other states are more than likely going to be favorable to Trump and vice versa.
Trump did not win a "highly unlikely" number of electoral votes.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:05 pm
Pwns wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:08 pm

I'm curious as to how Five Thirty Eight estimates the polling error correlation across states (or counties or whatever). I think it's higher than what they think it is, which is why Trump in 2016 can win a number of electoral votes that was supposed to be highly unlikely.

What I mean by "polling error correlation" is that if the outcome in 1 state is more favorable to Trump than polls indicate, other states are more than likely going to be favorable to Trump and vice versa.
Trump did not win a "highly unlikely" number of electoral votes.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:16 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:05 pm

Trump did not win a "highly unlikely" number of electoral votes.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
He didn't. There were 14 States classified as too close to call. Trump won 8 of them and Clinton won 6 of them. It was not a "highly unlikely" outcome. People who think it was do not understand survey statistics.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:50 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:16 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol:
He didn't. There were 14 States classified as too close to call. Trump won 8 of them and Clinton won 6 of them. It was not a "highly unlikely" outcome. People who think it was do not understand survey statistics.
Highly unlikely when Hillary was listed as having somewhere around an 85% chance of winning.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:50 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:16 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol:
He didn't. There were 14 States classified as too close to call. Trump won 8 of them and Clinton won 6 of them. It was not a "highly unlikely" outcome. People who think it was do not understand survey statistics.
There weren’t 14 states classified as “too close to call” 3 days before the election.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:46 pm Just posting to say that we are again in a situation in which, right now at least, this would not be a lock for Biden even if we weren't dealing with the additional uncertainty introduced by all the mail in voting due to COVID-19. Right now, the 538 forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/ indicates 78% confidence that Biden will win the Electoral College. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to conclude that Biden will win.

When you get to 90% confidence you can start to say there may be sufficient evidence. Sometimes, by convention, that is done. But most of the time it takes 95% confidence.

For historical reference: On election eve 2012 the 538 forecast indicated 90% confidence that Obama would beat Romney.

This is, again, very up in the air. If you care about the country you need to get out and vote for Biden. If you like Trump you need to go on a three month vacation to Australia or New Zealand and don't vote absentee. This country really, really needs to get rid of Trump as well as the Republican enablers who have been sticking with him through all the corruption that has been going on.
And if there's was no China Virus, the economy would be roaring, Biden would have to come out and campaign, and we would be looking at a Trump landslide.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

BDKJMU wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:05 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:46 pm Just posting to say that we are again in a situation in which, right now at least, this would not be a lock for Biden even if we weren't dealing with the additional uncertainty introduced by all the mail in voting due to COVID-19. Right now, the 538 forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/ indicates 78% confidence that Biden will win the Electoral College. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to conclude that Biden will win.

When you get to 90% confidence you can start to say there may be sufficient evidence. Sometimes, by convention, that is done. But most of the time it takes 95% confidence.

For historical reference: On election eve 2012 the 538 forecast indicated 90% confidence that Obama would beat Romney.

This is, again, very up in the air. If you care about the country you need to get out and vote for Biden. If you like Trump you need to go on a three month vacation to Australia or New Zealand and don't vote absentee. This country really, really needs to get rid of Trump as well as the Republican enablers who have been sticking with him through all the corruption that has been going on.
And if there's was no China Virus, the economy would be roaring, Biden would have to come out and campaign, and we would be looking at a Trump landslide.
You're probably right. Trump fvcking up the federal response to the China Virus has really impacted the odds of his reelection.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:05 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:46 pm Just posting to say that we are again in a situation in which, right now at least, this would not be a lock for Biden even if we weren't dealing with the additional uncertainty introduced by all the mail in voting due to COVID-19. Right now, the 538 forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/ indicates 78% confidence that Biden will win the Electoral College. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to conclude that Biden will win.

When you get to 90% confidence you can start to say there may be sufficient evidence. Sometimes, by convention, that is done. But most of the time it takes 95% confidence.

For historical reference: On election eve 2012 the 538 forecast indicated 90% confidence that Obama would beat Romney.

This is, again, very up in the air. If you care about the country you need to get out and vote for Biden. If you like Trump you need to go on a three month vacation to Australia or New Zealand and don't vote absentee. This country really, really needs to get rid of Trump as well as the Republican enablers who have been sticking with him through all the corruption that has been going on.
And if there's was no China Virus, the economy would be roaring, Biden would have to come out and campaign, and we would be looking at a Trump landslide.
You make a good point. :thumb:

Even if there was a virus, Trumps mis-handling of the situation could've been prevented.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by ∞∞∞ »

BDKJMU wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:05 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:46 pm Just posting to say that we are again in a situation in which, right now at least, this would not be a lock for Biden even if we weren't dealing with the additional uncertainty introduced by all the mail in voting due to COVID-19. Right now, the 538 forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/ indicates 78% confidence that Biden will win the Electoral College. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to conclude that Biden will win.

When you get to 90% confidence you can start to say there may be sufficient evidence. Sometimes, by convention, that is done. But most of the time it takes 95% confidence.

For historical reference: On election eve 2012 the 538 forecast indicated 90% confidence that Obama would beat Romney.

This is, again, very up in the air. If you care about the country you need to get out and vote for Biden. If you like Trump you need to go on a three month vacation to Australia or New Zealand and don't vote absentee. This country really, really needs to get rid of Trump as well as the Republican enablers who have been sticking with him through all the corruption that has been going on.
And if there's was no China Virus, the economy would be roaring, Biden would have to come out and campaign, and we would be looking at a Trump landslide.
Yup, Trump and his merry band of f*uck-ups did what f*ck-ups do: f*ck-up.

All they had to do was listen to science and say, "wear a mask and stay 6 feet apart."

But that's not what happened. People are dying, the economy is in the sh*tter, and there's civil unrest throughout. And now we'll likely have to deal with white supremacists with a dumb name and an election where the results are being undermined.

Y'all truly made America great again. Best democracy I've ever lived through. Good job. :clap:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SDHornet »

∞∞∞ wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:48 am
BDKJMU wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:05 pm
And if there's was no China Virus, the economy would be roaring, Biden would have to come out and campaign, and we would be looking at a Trump landslide.
Yup, Trump and his merry band of f*uck-ups did what f*ck-ups do: f*ck-up.

All they had to do was listen to science and say, "wear a mask and stay 6 feet apart."

But that's not what happened. People are dying, the economy is in the sh*tter, and there's civil unrest throughout. And now we'll likely have to deal with white supremacists with a dumb name and an election where the results are being undermined.

Y'all truly made America great again. Best democracy I've ever lived through. Good job. :clap:
Yawn. This was covered ad nausea in the covid thread. The "experts" were against masks before they were for them. Hell, even the SG was.

And the "white supremacists" narrative is another retread.

Do better.

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