2020 Election Predictions

[Baldy]

This video is too good, I couldn't just let it slip through the cracks ... Kalm, tell us how this isn't a precursor to socialism/marxism?

I disagree with the summary that equality means we all end up at the same place. The idea of fair competition should be the emphasis.

It’s not a precursor to socialism.

What is considered fair, and who decides it?

[Ibanez]

Can prisioners run for office?






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You ignored my earlier post.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... k-mulvaney


Health reasons would be the only thing that would stop him.

He won’t be stopped over indictments for Orange Man Bad by any liberal donk state AGs trying to make a name for themselves (you can indict a ham sandwich)..but he won‘t spend a day in jail.

And if he runs for the 2024 conk nomination, there‘s no doubt he will win it..

I didn't ignore it. Didn't I respond to that one - about Mick? He is NOT well liked around here. No sir...not at all.

And my post was a jokey joke.

I wouldn't be so confident that he would get the 2024 nomination. After all - you were confident that'd win the 2020 Presidential Election.

[Ibanez]

I disagree with the summary that equality means we all end up at the same place. The idea of fair competition should be the emphasis.

It’s not a precursor to socialism.

What is considered fair, and who decides it?

Apparently Trump has a monopoly on what's fair and what's the truth - despite his extremely casual relationship with both.

[Ibanez]

Well then someone should tell the liberals out that are pissed saying they didn't get a mandate because the election was close, the conks (as of now) held the senate, gained a bunch of House seats, are wrong, and they actually got a mandate..

For Democrats a one vote victory is a mandate for their agenda. So a 4,000,000+ victory must be, I don't know, what's bigger than a mandate? A womandate?

For Republicans losing by 3M popular votes and 306 EC Votes was a landslide. A 4.5M popular vote and 306 EC vote victory must b/c a epic, fucking failure to Republicans.

[houndawg]

You ignored my earlier post.

I didn't ignore it. Didn't I respond to that one - about Mick? He is NOT well liked around here. No sir...not at all.

And my post was a jokey joke.

I wouldn't be so confident that he would get the 2024 nomination. After all - you were confident that'd win the 2020 Presidential Election.

The RNC won't have it but the pinhead base will demand it. If he's still alive to run he'll lose again. His opponent always gets more votes.

[kalm]

I disagree with the summary that equality means we all end up at the same place. The idea of fair competition should be the emphasis.

It’s not a precursor to socialism.

Did you watch the video? Kamala Harris literally closes with the statement that "equitable treatments means we all end up at the same place." If Kamala is serious about this then she wants to bring us much closer to socialism and that is a precursor regardless of whether you agree with the summary.

Did you read my 1st sentence?

(Hint: it literally agrees with your second sentence).

[kalm]

I disagree with the summary that equality means we all end up at the same place. The idea of fair competition should be the emphasis.

It’s not a precursor to socialism.

What is considered fair, and who decides it?

A combination of market forces and regulators.

[UNI88]

Did you watch the video? Kamala Harris literally closes with the statement that "equitable treatments means we all end up at the same place." If Kamala is serious about this then she wants to bring us much closer to socialism and that is a precursor regardless of whether you agree with the summary.

Did you read my 1st sentence?

(Hint: it literally agrees with your second sentence).

Sorry! I misread your 1st sentence to be disagreeing with me not Kamala.

[kalm]

Did you read my 1st sentence?

(Hint: it literally agrees with your second sentence).

Sorry! I misread your 1st sentence to disagree with me not Kamala.

I’ll allow it.

In all honesty, I spend as much time arguing your side of economics with friends and family as I do arguing with you.

Radical centrist that I am.

[SDHornet]

For Democrats a one vote victory is a mandate for their agenda. So a 4,000,000+ victory must be, I don't know, what's bigger than a mandate? A womandate?

For Republicans losing by 3M popular votes and 306 EC Votes was a landslide. A 4.5M popular vote and 306 EC vote victory must b/c a epic, fucking failure to Republicans.

For POTUS, yes. Everywhere else the conks largely over performed. After all, the donks were suppose to have Senate control and a large margin in the House. Neither of those happened. Additionally, conks gained slightly more state legislature gains with a new round of gerrymandering on the horizon due to the census numbers coming in.

[GannonFan]

For Republicans losing by 3M popular votes and 306 EC Votes was a landslide. A 4.5M popular vote and 306 EC vote victory must b/c a epic, fucking failure to Republicans.

For POTUS, yes. Everywhere else the conks largely over performed. After all, the donks were suppose to have Senate control and a large margin in the House. Neither of those happened. Additionally, conks gained slightly more state legislature gains with a new round of gerrymandering on the horizon due to the census numbers coming in.

The GOP did surprisingly well in PA. Kind of ties in with the idea that voters didn't like Trump and they also didn't like the governor's (Wolf's) administration. Expanded majorities in both houses of the state legislature and they knocked out incumbent Democrats in both the State Auditor and the State Treasurer race. The only Dem to win reelection statewide was the Attorney General. A bit of a big deal as 2022 is a big election year for PA - the governor race (Wolf is serving his second and last term) and a spot in the Senate (Toomey is leaving). The AG is certainly a person who could run for either role, but now the ranks of potentials for both roles is a little less than before this election.

[JoltinJoe]

Biden has zero electoral votes at the moment. He won't have any until the state legislators choose electors.

You have numerous states, with Republican-controlled legislatures, in which voting procedures, fixed by legislation. were altered by executive branch executive orders. It is highly possible that some state legislatures will not appoint these electors chosen by this beauty contest, if the executive branch altered the procedures fixed by legislation. Note that this happened in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michicgan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- and each of these states have legislatures controlled by Republicans.

NOTHING requires any state legislature to appoint the electors "chosen" by popular vote in the state. That vote is purely a beauty contest. The state legislatures have the plenary right to choose electors and, even when delegated to a popular vote, the state legislature may revoke that delegation at any time. So, if you see where this can heading, it is pretty clear that the Republicans still control the outcome of this election, if they are willing to go nuclear.

"Whatever provisions may be made by statute, or by the state constitution, to choose electors by the people, there is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated.'" McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U.S. 1, 35 (quoting Senate Rep. 1st Sess. 43d Cong. No. 395.)

My bet is a deal gets made.

A) what kind of deal?
B) I sure hope you’re wrong. If these Rep state legislatures do that and change votes, I think we will have just seen the death of the electoral college. They’d be better served investigating the perceived voter fraud and proving THAT than changing the “beauty contest” results without legitimate proof. Otherwise, the whole process falls apart and it’s the beginning of the end.

When I posted that, it seemed that there would be razor thin, inconclusive margins in two states (Pa and Mich) which had significantly varied election procedures fixed by state legislation through an executive order entered by a Democratic governor. And that these two states would provide Biden with a slim electoral vote advantage.

I didn't foresee just how significantly these states would swing to Biden. But most significantly, when I posted that, no one was thinking Georgia would flip too.

The scenario I outlined was based on Biden having a slim electoral advantage based on statistically meaningless advantages in two states that permitted wide mail-in balloting in ways not authorized by the state legislatures. Under those facts, I could see two Red state legislatures not appointing electors given the razor-thin margin of the vote, and the way the election rules had been changed without their consent.

At this point, given the solid leans Biden now has in those states, and his far more solid lead in projected EC votes, not appointing electors would just appear to be a Republican coup.

[Skjellyfetti]

You posted that prediction on Friday.

At that point, Michigan wasn't close at all and Biden was already up in Georgia.

[Baldy]

What is considered fair, and who decides it?

Apparently Trump has a monopoly on what's fair and what's the truth - despite his extremely casual relationship with both.

That's nice, but the video in question was neither made by nor about Trump.

[Baldy]

What is considered fair, and who decides it?

A combination of market forces and regulators.

That's a lot vague, but thanks for trying anyway.

[Ibanez]

Apparently Trump has a monopoly on what's fair and what's the truth - despite his extremely casual relationship with both.

That's nice, but the video in question was neither made by nor about Trump.

My comment was more in general.

[JoltinJoe]

You posted that prediction on Friday.

At that point, Michigan wasn't close at all and Biden was already up in Georgia.

And that's just wrong. Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

I posted that first thing Friday morning. Trump was still ahead n Georgia; and Michigan was still within the automatic recount.

[Skjellyfetti]

You posted that prediction on Friday.

At that point, Michigan wasn't close at all and Biden was already up in Georgia.

And that's just wrong. Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

I posted that first thing Friday morning. Trump was still ahead n Georgia; and Michigan was still within the automatic recount.

Nope.

Biden passed Trump in the early morning hours of 11/6:


Biden was up by 2.6% in Michigan Friday morning:
https://web.archive.org/web/20201106101 ... ident.html

[JoltinJoe]

And that's just wrong. Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

I posted that first thing Friday morning. Trump was still ahead n Georgia; and Michigan was still within the automatic recount.

Nope.

Biden passed Trump in the early morning hours of 11/6:


Biden was up by 2.6% in Michigan Friday morning:
https://web.archive.org/web/20201106101 ... ident.html

So I posed before both of those links. Really, just stop. The only difference between you and the 6.93 guy is that he apparently had a sense of embarrassment.

[SDHornet]

Nope.

Biden passed Trump in the early morning hours of 11/6:


Biden was up by 2.6% in Michigan Friday morning:
https://web.archive.org/web/20201106101 ... ident.html

So I posed before both of those links. Really, just stop. The only difference between you and the 6.93 guy is that he apparently had a sense of embarrassment.

Jelly got shat on in his Russia hoax thread for 4 years parroting false narrative after false narrative and still has no shame. Tells you all you need to know.

[kalm]

A combination of market forces and regulators.

That's a lot vague, but thanks for trying anyway.

You’re welcome. I tried my hardest to dumb it down for ya.

[houndawg]

For Republicans losing by 3M popular votes and 306 EC Votes was a landslide. A 4.5M popular vote and 306 EC vote victory must b/c a epic, fucking failure to Republicans.

For POTUS, yes. Everywhere else the conks largely over performed. After all, the donks were suppose to have Senate control and a large margin in the House. Neither of those happened. Additionally, conks gained slightly more state legislature gains with a new round of gerrymandering on the horizon due to the census numbers coming in.

So the House and Senate elections are legit but not the Presidential election? Got it.

You'd think they would have taken out Lady Linsey and Rotting Meat McConnell while they were rigging the election.

[houndawg]

So I posed before both of those links. Really, just stop. The only difference between you and the 6.93 guy is that he apparently had a sense of embarrassment.

Jelly got shat on in his Russia hoax thread for 4 years parroting false narrative after false narrative and still has no shame. Tells you all you need to know.

Somebody is not being a good loser.

Elections have consequences, SD, I thought you undeerstood that..

[Baldy]

That's a lot vague, but thanks for trying anyway.

You’re welcome. I tried my hardest to dumb it down for ya.

Thank you. When you finally figure it out, please let me know.

[Winterborn]

Edit - Put post in the wrong thread.