The polling organizations acknowleged mistakes in 2016, and claimed they had made corrections/adjustments, yet they were worse.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:04 pmI will wait until the results are completely in before taking a final look at it. But it's possible that when all is said and done, if you look at all of the States where Trafalgar did polling, that polling group did not do as well as you may think it did.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 5:46 pm
I saw your boy Nate Silver at 538 had the national polling avg at Biden +8.4. So he was WAY off. But the national polling is irrelevant. All that matters is the swing states. 538 was also further off than the RCP at swing states (maybe because 538 excluded Trafalgar). If you remove Trafalgar from some of these RCP pre election averages, its looks even worse for the polls in that they would be 1 to 2 points even further off for Biden (like 538).
The Senate races were even worse than Biden/Trump. Look at all these Fake News polls.
Maine
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6928.html
NC:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6908.html
Iowa:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7072.html
Michigan:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6964.html