Coronavirus COVID-19

[SeattleGriz]

Bars, restaurants, indoor rec/fitness, limiting retail to 25% occupancy, social gatherings, weddings, funerals....

Welcome back March!

Gatherings with people outside a single household will be prohibited unless those involved have quarantined for a week and tested negative for the coronavirus.

So he's trying to cancel Thanksgiving. And how pray tell, is that going to be enforced? Even if they police & public health officials spent entire shifts going door to door, which of course they couldn't do because of other duties, there would only be enough to cover a fraction of homes.

I gotta admit. Washingtonians are pretty good rule followers. Maybe it's because I live near Seattle and it's mostly Liberal, but I've been impressed at how seriously they are taking COVID.

[kalm]

Well they tried asking please first.

I understand that but I have three problems here:

1. To have any impact it requires denunciations by neighbors which is a authoritarian (Hitler, Stalin, etc.) tactic.
2. Throwing people in jail for flouting gathering restrictions is absurdly contradictory. Authorities are upset with gatherings where people have control over the who, how & where so they might punish them by throwing them into a possibly crowded facility where they don't have that control. How do the risks of exposure in jail compare to a gathering with friends?
3. Local and state authorities went out of their way to not charge people who were involved in violence and destruction during the riots but they want to throw the book at people who get together for a peaceful social gathering?

I agree and I don’t think it’s enforceable.

[Gil Dobie]

Talked to a friend from Fargo. Said he thinks had Covid. Family is anti vaxer, anti mask and a hoaxer. Said he mostly stayed at home, but went out for groceries and restaurants or any other store. Only wore a mask if the business required it. I couldn't believe it.

[kalm]

Haven’t posted one of these for awhile. There’s no link as it’s a private FB group. It’s produced daily by an old friend who’s a data analytics guy and counts among its members someone who has been working on the Moderna vaccine. This is the commentary portion that goes along with daily world wide and domestic updated statistics spreadsheets.

It’s been as consistent and accurate in predictions as anything I’ve seen, since February.

Posting because it has some good news.

Good evening – here is the Covid-19 status report and commentary for November 15, 2020.


A. Today’s Covid-19 Headlines:



1. It’s the weekend again, so please look at the numbers through the lens of the fact they are under reported due to slow, no and underreporting jurisdictions.

2. Asia went over 15,000,000 cumulative cases today, closing out the day at 15,081,062 cumulative cases.



3. The race for a vaccine continues, as does the effort to establish a logistics chain to get it to people all over the world. The head of drug-maker Sanofi says: “we will need to have several winners at the end of this race”. AFP reports: The coronavirus vaccine being developed by Sanofi won’t need to be super-cooled and a normal refrigerator will suffice, the Paris-based drugmaker’s France chief Olivier Bogillot said Sunday. His comments came days after American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech announced that their vaccine had proven 90 percent effective in preventing Covid-19 infections in ongoing Phase 3 trials involving more than 40,000 people. The companies said they expect to supply up to 50 million vaccine doses globally in 2020, and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021. However, Pfizer’s vaccine must be stored at -70 degrees Celsius (-94 degrees Fahrenheit) or else it falls apart, well beyond the capability of most hospital freezers let alone domestic appliances. Rachel Silverman, a policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, has already warned that maintaining the Pfizer vaccine’s “ultra-cold chain” from factory to patients’ arms constitutes “an enormous logistical challenge even in the West”. “Our vaccine will be like the ‘flu vaccine, you can keep it in your refrigerator,” this avoiding the problem, Bogillot told the CNews channel. “This will be an advantage for some countries,” he added. The Sanofi vaccine, one of many in development, will be available for distribution next June, Bogillot added.



4. Some more detail here on the extraordinary news in the UK, that the prime minister Boris Johnson is back in isolation after potentially being exposed to Covid-19 again. Political editor Heather Stewart writes: Boris Johnson was forced into self-isolation on Sunday night just as he embarked on a crucial week designed to restore calm and project an air of competence after a vicious No 10 turf war. There were concerns that Covid-19 had returned to Downing Street as the result of a 35-minute meeting between the prime minister and a group of Tory MPs at No 10, one of whom subsequently tested positive for the virus.bJohnson was pictured standing next to Lee Anderson, MP for Ashfield in Nottinghamshire, inside Downing Street on Thursday. The men appear to be less than 2 metres apart and neither is wearing a mask.



5. The Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, has said that the country will follow in Slovakia’s footsteps by mass testing its population to get out of lockdown in time for Christmas.



6. In a statement on Sunday, the Iranian president, Hasson Rouhan, declared “the general mobilisation of the nation and the government” after health authorities announced the highest ever number of daily cases in the country.



7. India is expected to fly doctors in from other regions of the country to double its testing capacity in an effort to contain the spread of coronavirus in the capital New Delhi.



8. Michigan and Washington State announced strict new restrictions on Sunday, joining a growing list of states that have reimposed tough measures as the virus rages across the country. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan announced that the state will suspend all in-person learning for college and high school students and indoor dining for three weeks. Other indoor gathering places, like casinos and movie theaters, must also close as part of the order, which will take effect Wednesday. All organized sports, excluding professional and college, are suspended. “This is the worst public health emergency our nation has faced in over a century and our response has got to reflect the same level of urgency,” Ms. Whitmer said. Michigan’s coronavirus cases have skyrocketed this month, and hospitalizations have more than doubled over the past two weeks.



9. In Washington State, Gov. Jay Inslee said he was ordering fitness facilities and restaurants to stop serving customers indoors, shutting down museums and limiting retail stores to 25 percent of capacity indoors. The governor prohibited all indoor social gatherings with people beyond one household. He limited wedding and funeral ceremonies to 30 people or fewer, and barred wedding and funeral receptions entirely. The new rules begin Monday night and are set to last through Dec. 14. Governor Inslee was among the first elected leaders in the nation to order lockdowns in the spring, after an outbreak around Seattle led to some of the first U.S. coronavirus deaths. He said on Sunday in a news conference that the situation was more dangerous now than it was back in March. “Inaction here is not an option,” Mr. Inslee said. “We have to take bold and decisive action.” The goal, Mr. Inslee said, was to keep as many people alive as possible until a vaccine is available. Left unchecked, the virus would overrun the state’s health care systems, he warned. Washington has been reporting an average of more than 1,700 new cases a day lately, more than double the pace of a month ago.



10. In neighboring Oregon, Gov. Kate Brown has ordered a partial lockdown for two weeks, closing gyms, halting restaurant dining and mandating that social gatherings have no more than six people.



11. In a reversal, the governor of North Dakota, Doug Burgum, announced several measures late Friday, including a mask mandate, a limit on indoor dining of 50 percent capacity or 150 people, and a suspension of high school winter sports and extracurricular activities until Dec. 14. The state has critically understaffed hospitals and the highest rates of new cases and deaths per person in the nation.



12. In New Mexico on Friday, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham announced the nation’s most sweeping statewide measure of the fall season, issuing a two-week “stay at home” order to begin Monday. She asked people to shelter in place except for essential trips and said nonessential businesses and nonprofits must cease in-person activities.



13. On Sunday, Dr. Scott W. Atlas, a coronavirus adviser for President Trump, responded to the news of Michigan’s tighter restrictions in a tweet, writing, “The only way this stops is if people rise up. You get what you accept.”





B. Total New Cases Globally today: 490,610 with a cumulative case count of 54,805,521





C. Today’s Global Top Ten New Case Counts:



1. United States – 138,249

2. Italy – 33,979

3. India – 30,715

4. France – 27,228

5. United Kingdom – 24,962

6. Russia – 22,572

7. Poland – 21,854

8. Brazil – 14,134

9. Germany – 14,045

10. Iran – 12,543





D. Today’s Global Top Ten Cumulative Case Counts:



1. United States – 11,366,379

2. India – 8,845,617

3. Brazil – 5,863,093

4. France – 1,981,827

5. Russia – 1,925,825

6. Spain – 1,492,608

7. United Kingdom – 1,369,318

8. Argentina – 1,310,491

9. Colombia – 1,198,746

10. Italy – 1,178,529





E. The Top Ten New Case Counts from States or Provinces in North America today:



1. Illinois – 10,631

2. Florida – 10,105

3. California – 8,817

4. Ohio – 7,853

5. Minnesota – 7,553

6. Indiana – 6,710

7. Texas – 6,658

8. Wisconsin – 6,058

9. Tennessee – 5,817

10. Pennsylvania – 4,647





F. New Cases today in: Washington – 1,878 Oregon – 862 Idaho – 928 Montana - 1,272.





G. New Cases today in key Washington State Counties: (No reports on Sat and Sun)



1. King –

2. Pierce -

3. Kitsap –

4. Snohomish –

5. Skagit -

6. Clark –

7. Kittitas –

8. Benton –

9. Franklin –

10. Spokane –





H. Today’s New Cases and Cumulative Case Counts by Continent:



1. Europe – 212,295 / 13,939,680

2. North America – 151,010 / 13,396,203

3. Asia – 81,775 / 15,081,062

4. South America - 33,040 / 10,358,002

5. Africa – 12,468 / 1,987,732

6. Oceania – 22 / 42,121

[89Hen]

TLDR

[GannonFan]

The vaccine candidate from Moderna is claiming 94.5% effectiveness versus COVID 19, so similar to what Pfizer had with theirs. Advantage with the Moderna one is that it doesn't need supercooled freezers to work, just a regular freezer could store it for 6 months and a refrigerator could store it for a month. Not sure if it needs two doses like Pfizer's. Certainly more good news.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54902908

[CAA Flagship]

The vaccine candidate from Moderna is claiming 94.5% effectiveness versus COVID 19, so similar to what Pfizer had with theirs. Advantage with the Moderna one is that it doesn't need supercooled freezers to work, just a regular freezer could store it for 6 months and a refrigerator could store it for a month. Not sure if it needs two doses like Pfizer's. Certainly more good news.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54902908

The root design of the Moderna vax is similar to the Pfizer vax. But Moderna was able to get it to work at a lower temp.
The speed of developing these vaccines has produced limitations such as storage temps, two doses, etc. These companies will continue testing 2nd and 3rd generation versions that will hopefully get to room temp and single dose vaccines available in 2022.

Several other vaccines still in trials use an older design. They will likely have less limitations but it will be interesting to see their effectiveness.

[BDKJMU]

TLDR

Ditto..

[89Hen]

The vaccine candidate from Moderna is claiming 94.5% effectiveness versus COVID 19, so similar to what Pfizer had with theirs. Advantage with the Moderna one is that it doesn't need supercooled freezers to work, just a regular freezer could store it for 6 months and a refrigerator could store it for a month. Not sure if it needs two doses like Pfizer's. Certainly more good news.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54902908

They are looking at a January 21st release of the vaccines.

[Skjellyfetti]

The vaccine candidate from Moderna is claiming 94.5% effectiveness versus COVID 19, so similar to what Pfizer had with theirs. Advantage with the Moderna one is that it doesn't need supercooled freezers to work, just a regular freezer could store it for 6 months and a refrigerator could store it for a month. Not sure if it needs two doses like Pfizer's. Certainly more good news.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54902908

They are looking at a January 21st release of the vaccines.

Day after Biden's inauguration. BDK is not going to like that timing.

[Gil Dobie]

My daughter was contact traced to a training class last week. She's 7.5 months pregnant and we had her son, our grandson for the weekend, so we are exposed. They are getting tested, so hope it's all good.

[89Hen]

They are looking at a January 21st release of the vaccines.

Day after Biden's inauguration. BDK is not going to like that timing.

Really Jelly?

[HI54UNI]

My daughter was contact traced to a training class last week. She's 7.5 months pregnant and we had her son, our grandson for the weekend, so we are exposed. They are getting tested, so hope it's all good.

Wouldn't your exposure be considered secondary and not really a problem?

[Gil Dobie]

My daughter was contact traced to a training class last week. She's 7.5 months pregnant and we had her son, our grandson for the weekend, so we are exposed. They are getting tested, so hope it's all good.

Wouldn't your exposure be considered secondary and not really a problem?

We have been around them since the contact, so if they are negative, we should be okay. Didn't find out about the contact until today. Daughter was sent home from work.

[AshevilleApp]

My daughter was contact traced to a training class last week. She's 7.5 months pregnant and we had her son, our grandson for the weekend, so we are exposed. They are getting tested, so hope it's all good.

Good luck Gil. I found out yesterday that my Brother In Law has been infected. He was showing minor symptoms, and was told to isolate at home after testing positive. It got worse with a fever spike and heart rate complications, so he landed in the hospital. He's back home now, so hopefully the worst is over for him. He's in pretty good health, but is 75 years old. So it is still a concern . He's a resilient mofo though. Raised three daughters by himself after my sister died at age 35. Lost his house in the Paradise, CA fire a couple of years back, etc. (Sent out an email saying he'd been kicked out of Paradise. )

[Winterborn]

So True

Btw, just saw where ND is going to a mask mandate.

SG, odds that Inslee moves us back to phase 1 today?

Yup "Officially". Outside of the big three cities (Fargo, Grand Forks, Bismarck) it is going to be difficult to enforce. There is also a decent push to call a special session of the legislators and recall the Governor over it.

[Ibanez]

Happy Birthday, novel coronavirus. According to the Chinese, on 11/17/2019 the first case emerged.


No, please die.

[kalm]

Btw, just saw where ND is going to a mask mandate.

SG, odds that Inslee moves us back to phase 1 today?

Yup "Officially". Outside of the big three cities (Fargo, Grand Forks, Bismarck) it is going to be difficult to enforce. There is also a decent push to call a special session of the legislators and recall the Governor over it.

Everything is nearly impossible to enforce but official mandates might at least get a few to cooperate. Sad that it’s come to that.

[Winterborn]

Yup "Officially". Outside of the big three cities (Fargo, Grand Forks, Bismarck) it is going to be difficult to enforce. There is also a decent push to call a special session of the legislators and recall the Governor over it.

Everything is nearly impossible to enforce but official mandates might at least get a few to cooperate. Sad that it’s come to that.

Maybe. If you are passing a law that is nearly impossible (or only selectively enforced) the only thing you are doing is conditioning people to start ignoring rules they don't agree with. Which is a slippery slope I don't want to be on.

Yes, a few more will "wear" a mask, but people are lazy and how much good will it do putting on a week (or more) old mask that only covers the mouth do? The material properties that make a mask work, degrade quite rapidly (starts after about 20-30 minutes) of continuous wear. After that........

[kalm]

Everything is nearly impossible to enforce but official mandates might at least get a few to cooperate. Sad that it’s come to that.

Maybe. If you are passing a law that is nearly impossible (or only selectively enforced) the only thing you are doing is conditioning people to start ignoring rules they don't agree with. Which is a slippery slope I don't want to be on.

Yes, a few more will "wear" a mask, but people are lazy and how much good will it do putting on a week (or more) old mask that only covers the mouth do? The material properties that make a mask work, degrade quite rapidly (starts after about 20-30 minutes) of continuous wear. After that........

Fair point on the first. With masks, I see very few not covering the nose but even with those, any reduction in droplets/virus cells reduces the chance of transmission and probably the severity of the symptoms. Perfect, meet enema of the good.

[Winterborn]

Maybe. If you are passing a law that is nearly impossible (or only selectively enforced) the only thing you are doing is conditioning people to start ignoring rules they don't agree with. Which is a slippery slope I don't want to be on.

Yes, a few more will "wear" a mask, but people are lazy and how much good will it do putting on a week (or more) old mask that only covers the mouth do? The material properties that make a mask work, degrade quite rapidly (starts after about 20-30 minutes) of continuous wear. After that........

Fair point on the first. With masks, I see very few not covering the nose but even with those, any reduction in droplets/virus cells reduces the chance of transmission and probably the severity of the symptoms. Perfect, meet enema of the good.

Don't disagree on your point, but have you ever seen a time study done of the effectiveness of a mask during usage? Unless you are switching them out constantly, after a period of time they become like you were not even wearing one in the first place. After a few hours of use (and they get damp/dirty) and one should be switching them out.

Giving it a SWAG here that most people have gone through less than 20 of the disposable masks since this thing started and if they are wearing the homemade/non-n95/gaiters it has been probably washed a couple of times and the "effectiveness" is even less than it was before (which is nothing from a COVID transmissible standpoint).

A big clue to this is the rates when states/countries issue a mask mandate and what happens in the months to follow.

[89Hen]

enema of the good.

[89Hen]

Everything is nearly impossible to enforce but official mandates might at least get a few to cooperate. Sad that it’s come to that.

Completely a guess, but I think you may find as many or possibly more people NOT wearing masks because of a mandate. People love to protest. You should know that.

[Winterborn]

enema of the good.

[kalm]

Everything is nearly impossible to enforce but official mandates might at least get a few to cooperate. Sad that it’s come to that.

Completely a guess, but I think you may find as many or possibly more people NOT wearing masks because of a mandate. People love to protest. You should know that.

Doubt it, but it’s another instance of stupidity. “I’m going to protest this statism and endanger myself and others so that I force more statism.”

Dumb and pussified.