Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

[BDKJMU]

More evidence that the Republican Party has become the Party of ignorance:

Exit polling was conducted in 24 States. In 21 of the States, Biden won among people with at least a bachelors degree. In 22 States, Biden won among people with advanced degrees.

Biden won among people with at least a bachelors degree in 6 of the 9 Exit polling states that Trump won. He won among people with advanced degrees in 7 of 9 of those States.

Again: The Republican Party has become the Party of stupid.

I stopped reading right there..

[Ibanez]

More evidence that the Republican Party has become the Party of ignorance:

Exit polling was conducted in 24 States. In 21 of the States, Biden won among people with at least a bachelors degree. In 22 States, Biden won among people with advanced degrees.

Biden won among people with at least a bachelors degree in 6 of the 9 Exit polling states that Trump won. He won among people with advanced degrees in 7 of 9 of those States.

Again: The Republican Party has become the Party of stupid.

I stopped reading right there..

I believe you don't trust anything that doesn't support your views or your political ideology. Election polling is immediately after someone votes, people are always going to lie (like some of you who said you would). So what's your problem? That it occurred or that people lie? If it's the latter, you really can't get down on the polling altogether.

[89Hen]

I stopped reading right there..

I believe you don't trust anything that doesn't support your views or your political ideology. Election polling is immediately after someone votes, people are always going to lie (like some of you who said you would). So what's your problem? That it occurred or that people lie? If it's the latter, you really can't get down on the polling altogether.

I had to read that a couple times to make sure I understood what you were saying. I'm not sure I do. If polling is inaccurate because people lie, or because many people will not divulge, or they're at an election spot that is heavily tilted in one direction.... all valid reasons to "get down on polling altogether" IMO.

But I have no doubt more advanced degrees holders vote Dem. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

[Ibanez]

I believe you don't trust anything that doesn't support your views or your political ideology. Election polling is immediately after someone votes, people are always going to lie (like some of you who said you would). So what's your problem? That it occurred or that people lie? If it's the latter, you really can't get down on the polling altogether.

I had to read that a couple times to make sure I understood what you were saying. I'm not sure I do. If polling is inaccurate because people lie, or because many people will not divulge, or they're at an election spot that is heavily tilted in one direction.... all valid reasons to "get down on polling altogether" IMO.

But I have no doubt more advanced degrees holders vote Dem. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

The polling isn't to blame for Joe Blow lying to them and therefore being less accurate. That's what I'm saying. I haven't looked into it so I could be wildly mistaken. And if I am wrong, i'll gladly accept it. I agree that polling hasn't be the greatest is predicting the past 2 Presidential Elections. I wonder how much of that has to with the Trump as a candidate vs the methodology. I assume it's a combo of both.

Exit Polling isn't intended to say who is winning on election night (although it is used for that). Exit polling's real use is for the post election analysis of why a candidate won/loss. What demographics, income ranges, genders, locations, etc... did or didn't support a candidate.


To your last comment - well, obviously.

[89Hen]

What is the point of polling if it isn't accurate? We give them the benefit of having a +/- range but we know for a fact that the pre-election polling was not close for many states. Why would post election polling be more accurate? I think BDK has plenty of ground on which to stand to say why bother looking at polling data.

[Winterborn]

The polling isn't to blame for Joe Blow lying to them and therefore being less accurate. That's what I'm saying. I haven't looked into it so I could be wildly mistaken. And if I am wrong, i'll gladly accept it. I agree that polling hasn't be the greatest is predicting the past 2 Presidential Elections. I wonder how much of that has to with the Trump as a candidate vs the methodology. I assume it's a combo of both.

Exit Polling isn't intended to say who is winning on election night (although it is used for that). Exit polling's real use is for the post election analysis of why a candidate won/loss. What demographics, income ranges, genders, locations, etc... did or didn't support a candidate.


To your last comment - well, obviously.

I personally think the trend is going to get worse going forward. Poling only works if people answer honestly. How much honesty do you think there is going to be going forward?

[Ibanez]

What is the point of polling if it isn't accurate? We give them the benefit of having a +/- range but we know for a fact that the pre-election polling was not close for many states. Why would post election polling be more accurate? I think BDK has plenty of ground on which to stand to say why bother looking at polling data.

B/c the post election polling isn't guessing who will win. It's more about why they won/lost. It's all forecasts and projections based upon trends and analysis.

I can see the point he's making and it's not w/o merit. I'm just bringing up the other side.

[GannonFan]

What is the point of polling if it isn't accurate? We give them the benefit of having a +/- range but we know for a fact that the pre-election polling was not close for many states. Why would post election polling be more accurate? I think BDK has plenty of ground on which to stand to say why bother looking at polling data.

B/c the post election polling isn't guessing who will win. It's more about why they won/lost. It's all forecasts and projections based upon trends and analysis.

I can see the point he's making and it's not w/o merit. I'm just bringing up the other side.

I'm with these other guys, I think polling is in real jeopardy. There are many reasons why, but we're in chaos territory as it relates to polling these days. Very little accuracy, very little predictive capability, and I don't see what that would be any different in terms of exit polling either. If people are going to lie going in why would they suddenly have a commitment to the truth on the way out?

[Ibanez]

The polling isn't to blame for Joe Blow lying to them and therefore being less accurate. That's what I'm saying. I haven't looked into it so I could be wildly mistaken. And if I am wrong, i'll gladly accept it. I agree that polling hasn't be the greatest is predicting the past 2 Presidential Elections. I wonder how much of that has to with the Trump as a candidate vs the methodology. I assume it's a combo of both.

Exit Polling isn't intended to say who is winning on election night (although it is used for that). Exit polling's real use is for the post election analysis of why a candidate won/loss. What demographics, income ranges, genders, locations, etc... did or didn't support a candidate.


To your last comment - well, obviously.

I personally think the trend is going to get worse going forward. Poling only works if people answer honestly. How much honesty do you think there is going to be going forward?

Who knows. We have posters here that said they either lied or will lie if polled.

Is it becoming increasingly less accurate b/c people are becoming so divided, Trump as a candidate, Clinton as a candidate...? They are all projections. I don't recall all of this conversation on the inaccuracies of polling before the 2016 election. At least, it wasn't as widely discussed as it is now.

[89Hen]

What is the point of polling if it isn't accurate? We give them the benefit of having a +/- range but we know for a fact that the pre-election polling was not close for many states. Why would post election polling be more accurate? I think BDK has plenty of ground on which to stand to say why bother looking at polling data.

B/c the post election polling isn't guessing who will win. It's more about why they won/lost. It's all forecasts and projections based upon trends and analysis.

I can see the point he's making and it's not w/o merit. I'm just bringing up the other side.

We'll have to disagree on this one. The only way exit polling works is if every ballot cast has to answer the questions and answer them accurately. Obviously neither of those are a part of our voting process. Imagine the voter suppression outcry.

[Ibanez]

B/c the post election polling isn't guessing who will win. It's more about why they won/lost. It's all forecasts and projections based upon trends and analysis.

I can see the point he's making and it's not w/o merit. I'm just bringing up the other side.

I'm with these other guys, I think polling is in real jeopardy. There are many reasons why, but we're in chaos territory as it relates to polling these days. Very little accuracy, very little predictive capability, and I don't see what that would be any different in terms of exit polling either. If people are going to lie going in why would they suddenly have a commitment to the truth on the way out?

And that's a valid point I hadn't considered. I know it's easier to lie to a stranger on the phone. But it is as easy to lie when they are in front of you? And if you're one that would lie anyway or think polling is bad - are you even going to stop to answer questions?

[89Hen]

I don't recall all of this conversation on the inaccuracies of polling before the 2016 election.

[89Hen]

And that's a valid point I hadn't considered. I know it's easier to lie to a stranger on the phone. But it is as easy to lie when they are in front of you? And if you're one that would lie anyway or think polling is bad - are you even going to stop to answer questions?

Last point I started typing in my last response when I was starting down the voter suppression line. If you know you're going to be asked demographic questions and you didn't graduate college, have low income, etc... you're probably less likely to stop to be asked those questions. If you came to my voting place, you'd have folks lined up to tell the pollsters how many degrees they have and how proud they were to vote for a straight Dem ballot.

[Ibanez]

And that's a valid point I hadn't considered. I know it's easier to lie to a stranger on the phone. But it is as easy to lie when they are in front of you? And if you're one that would lie anyway or think polling is bad - are you even going to stop to answer questions?

Last point I started typing in my last response when I was starting down the voter suppression line. If you know you're going to be asked demographic questions and you didn't graduate college, have low income, etc... you're probably less likely to stop to be asked those questions. If you came to my voting place, you'd have folks lined up to tell the pollsters how many degrees they have and how proud they were to vote for a straight Dem ballot.

Good point. And that would certainly skew the results. Dumb, poor people will generally not tell people they're dumb and/or poor.

They'll just dress in Trump shirts, MAGA hats and wrap their vehicles in TRUMP 2020. That's how we know they're dumb and poor.

Spoiler: show

I know i'm stereotyping.

[UNI88]

I believe you don't trust anything that doesn't support your views or your political ideology. Election polling is immediately after someone votes, people are always going to lie (like some of you who said you would). So what's your problem? That it occurred or that people lie? If it's the latter, you really can't get down on the polling altogether.

I had to read that a couple times to make sure I understood what you were saying. I'm not sure I do. If polling is inaccurate because people lie, or because many people will not divulge, or they're at an election spot that is heavily tilted in one direction.... all valid reasons to "get down on polling altogether" IMO.

But I have no doubt more advanced degrees holders vote Dem. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

I took it as a commentary on BDK lying to pollsters and then complaining that polls are inaccurate.

[AZGrizFan]

And that's a valid point I hadn't considered. I know it's easier to lie to a stranger on the phone. But it is as easy to lie when they are in front of you? And if you're one that would lie anyway or think polling is bad - are you even going to stop to answer questions?

Last point I started typing in my last response when I was starting down the voter suppression line. If you know you're going to be asked demographic questions and you didn't graduate college, have low income, etc... you're probably less likely to stop to be asked those questions. If you came to my voting place, you'd have folks lined up to tell the pollsters how many degrees they have and how proud they were to vote for a straight Dem ballot.

May I refer you to the “educated morons” vs “rednecks” thread?

[Winterborn]

I personally think the trend is going to get worse going forward. Poling only works if people answer honestly. How much honesty do you think there is going to be going forward?

Who knows. We have posters here that said they either lied or will lie if polled.

Is it becoming increasingly less accurate b/c people are becoming so divided, Trump as a candidate, Clinton as a candidate...? They are all projections. I don't recall all of this conversation on the inaccuracies of polling before the 2016 election. At least, it wasn't as widely discussed as it is now.

I think you are right. 2016 is when things seemed to take off, both from a polling inaccuracies and it happens to "coincide" with peoples viewpoints "hardening" towards others that have different beliefs.

Is this just going to be a blimp or a trend I do not know. Based on how the "Left" railed against Trump, I expect the "Right" to do something similar. We have two camps that do not trust the other side right now and I would guess that this continues for the next 4 years and sets up the same political shitshow in 2024. The roll that Polling will play is anybody's guess but I think it is safe to assume that the inaccuracies seem in the last 4 years will continue going forward. Pollsters will be split depending on what camp is paying their bills.

[89Hen]

I had to read that a couple times to make sure I understood what you were saying. I'm not sure I do. If polling is inaccurate because people lie, or because many people will not divulge, or they're at an election spot that is heavily tilted in one direction.... all valid reasons to "get down on polling altogether" IMO.

But I have no doubt more advanced degrees holders vote Dem. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

I took it as a commentary on BDK lying to pollsters and then complaining that polls are inaccurate.

I don't think that was the intent.

[BDKJMU]

I'm with these other guys, I think polling is in real jeopardy. There are many reasons why, but we're in chaos territory as it relates to polling these days. Very little accuracy, very little predictive capability, and I don't see what that would be any different in terms of exit polling either. If people are going to lie going in why would they suddenly have a commitment to the truth on the way out?

And that's a valid point I hadn't considered. I know it's easier to lie to a stranger on the phone. But it is as easy to lie when they are in front of you? And if you're one that would lie anyway or think polling is bad - are you even going to stop to answer questions?

You still don’t get it. Its not just lieing. Far more will simply refuse to answer. You could even be polite about it, or just ignore them like those people in malls and airports trying to sell you sonething. If the majority aren’t answering, even a large chunk, the poll is skewed, because those answering aren’t representative of the whole.

[BDKJMU]

I had to read that a couple times to make sure I understood what you were saying. I'm not sure I do. If polling is inaccurate because people lie, or because many people will not divulge, or they're at an election spot that is heavily tilted in one direction.... all valid reasons to "get down on polling altogether" IMO.

But I have no doubt more advanced degrees holders vote Dem. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

I took it as a commentary on BDK lying to pollsters and then complaining that polls are inaccurate.

You would be wrong.

[BDKJMU]

I took it as a commentary on BDK lying to pollsters and then complaining that polls are inaccurate.

I don't think that was the intent.

You would be right.

[Ibanez]

And that's a valid point I hadn't considered. I know it's easier to lie to a stranger on the phone. But it is as easy to lie when they are in front of you? And if you're one that would lie anyway or think polling is bad - are you even going to stop to answer questions?

You still don’t get it. Its not just lieing. Far more will simply refuse to answer. You could even be polite about it, or just ignore them like those people in malls and airports trying to sell you sonething. If the majority aren’t answering, even a large chunk, the poll is skewed, because those answering aren’t representative of the whole.

Refusing to answer a question is ok. You can politely refuse and I would think the pollsters will/can account for that in their statistic. I could be wrong.

If you're stopping to talk to a pollster, KNOWING they're going to ask you questions about your vote, can't we make an assumption that you would be truthful? Otherwise you'd ignore them or politely decline. Otherwise, who is going to stop and talk to a pollster and avoid the questions and/or lie?

[Ibanez]

I had to read that a couple times to make sure I understood what you were saying. I'm not sure I do. If polling is inaccurate because people lie, or because many people will not divulge, or they're at an election spot that is heavily tilted in one direction.... all valid reasons to "get down on polling altogether" IMO.

But I have no doubt more advanced degrees holders vote Dem. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

I took it as a commentary on BDK lying to pollsters and then complaining that polls are inaccurate.

I wasn't specifically commenting on BDK but people that do this in general.

[UNI88]

And that's a valid point I hadn't considered. I know it's easier to lie to a stranger on the phone. But it is as easy to lie when they are in front of you? And if you're one that would lie anyway or think polling is bad - are you even going to stop to answer questions?

You still don’t get it. Its not just lieing. Far more will simply refuse to answer. You could even be polite about it, or just ignore them like those people in malls and airports trying to sell you sonething. If the majority aren’t answering, even a large chunk, the poll is skewed, because those answering aren’t representative of the whole.

* lying - the rest of your post is irrelevant due to a typo. Please try to do better next time.

[kalm]

You still don’t get it. Its not just lieing. Far more will simply refuse to answer. You could even be polite about it, or just ignore them like those people in malls and airports trying to sell you sonething. If the majority aren’t answering, even a large chunk, the poll is skewed, because those answering aren’t representative of the whole.

* lying - the rest of your post is irrelevant due to a typo. Please try to do better next time.

People who mispell words disgust me.