JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:04 pm
I have never liked Roe vs.Wade so that's good. I am hoping we get a real bonus from this in that it hurts the Republican Party politically. I think that we've gone along for many years where the "pro choice" majority just kind of assumed it didn't have to worry while the "pro life" minority was very energized. Now there has been a significant change that will hopefully energize anti-Republican sentiment.
Here is a discussion of the distribution of opinion from Pew Research:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... t-cases-2/
Today, a 61% majority of U.S. adults say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 37% think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.
What's really great is that there are suggestions of State by State problems for Republicans with this issue. See
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/re ... /by/state/. Not all the differences are "significant" but, point estimate wise, there are 32 States where the percent of people saying they abortion should be legal in all or most cases is greater than the percent saying abortion should be illegal in all or most cases vs. 17 States where more respondents said abortion should be illegal in most or all cases.
Florida is a big one. 56% of Florida respondents said abortion should be legal in most or all cases while only 39% said it should be illegal in most or all cases. That is a statistically significant difference. Obviously, Florida is a close State. It flips back and forth. Even a small effect of that distribution of public opinion could really help the Democrats.
Other notable States where more respondents said they favor abortion being legal in most or all cases are Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In New Hampshire, the "legal in most or all cases" side has a 66% to 29% edge.
While I can't see them going Democrat in the foreseeable future, the "legal in most or all cases" side even has the edge in Alaska, Montana, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.
This issue has now moved into the direct political realm and it is just not a good issue for Republicans. I'd be surprised if it makes a determinative difference in the 2022 mid terms with all the other stuff going on. But I don't think it is going to go away. I think it's reasonable to hope that this is a "dog catches car" moment for the Republicans.