Trump vs Harris

[Skjellyfetti]

Seems like Bdk has been posting less polls recently

[kalm]

Seems like Bdk has been posting less polls recently

Maybe because they look like this one? Still a lot of game left and both candidates will take some more lumps.



https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve ... olls-model

[BDKJMU]

Seems like Bdk has been posting less polls recently

Maybe because they look like this one? Still a lot of game left and both candidates will take some more lumps.



https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve ... olls-model

The national polls really don’t matter, but if you’re going to insist on talking about them:

Real Clear Politics nat poll avg:
8/5/16: Clinton +6.8. Won popular vote by 2.1. Would have needed to win by 3+ to win the EC.

8/5/20: Biden +6.4. Won popular vote by 4.5. Would likely have lost the EC if he had only won by 4.

8/5/24: Harris +.2. In CA will probably drive higher than usual turnout & run up the margin, so might have to win the popular vote by closer to 5 to end up winning the EC.

Trump is in much better shape now than he was at this point in 2016 and 2020, when the gambling markets had him losing. Gambling markets still have Trump winning. Was getting pretty close but the margin opened back up today in Trumps favor with the market crash.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/bettin ... /president

[SeattleGriz]

#Kamalacrash
BLACK MONDAY


I just need to remember 2 things since last Thur:
-Don’t look at my portfolio (or if I do have a stiff drink ready).
-This helps Trump beat Commiela.

Densedawg in 3, 2, 1: Its all rigged, buy land, blah, blah..

Commiela? If someone attempts to assassinate her, you're responsible for calling her names and insinuating that she's a communist.

Using the deflection technique out of the MAQA yahoo playbook.

Oh Jesus, really?! To try and get out from under your disgusting fomenting the assassination attempt on Trump, you immediately try to pin blame on someone else, for what you have been guilty of for years. Shame.

[kalm]

Maybe because they look like this one? Still a lot of game left and both candidates will take some more lumps.



https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve ... olls-model

The national polls really don’t matter, but if you’re going to insist on talking about them:

Real Clear Politics nat poll avg:
8/5/16: Clinton +6.8. Won popular vote by 2.1. Would have needed to win by 3+ to win the EC.

8/5/20: Biden +6.4. Won popular vote by 4.5. Would likely have lost the EC if he had only won by 4.

8/5/24: Harris +.2. In CA will probably drive higher than usual turnout & run up the margin, so might have to win the popular vote by closer to 5 to end up winning the EC.

Trump is in much better shape now than he was at this point in 2016 and 2020, when the gambling markets had him losing. Gambling markets still have Trump winning. Was getting pretty close but the margin opened back up today in Trumps favor with the market crash.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/bettin ... /president

True on state polling. If you read the article, it’s calculated into Silver’s state polling and vice versa. Will be interesting to see his state by state numbers.

And yes, Silver got 2016 wrong but kalm didnt.

T

he Silver Bulletin polling averages are a little fancy. They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of RFK Jr., and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa. It requires a few extra CPU cycles — but the reward is a more stable average that doesn’t get psyched out by outliers.

[houndawg]

Commiela? If someone attempts to assassinate her, you're responsible for calling her names and insinuating that she's a communist.

Using the deflection technique out of the MAQA yahoo playbook.

Yeah, because I’m on here with millions of people on CS.com reading what I write, and on national TV with millions more watching. Wow I had no idea I was famous.

I tell you what, if CH or Bobcat tried anything, you could hold me partially responsible..

Bobcat? He's still around?

[houndawg]

Chris Christie blames Trump for boosting Josh Shapiro by endorsing his ‘weakest’ opponent

“I don’t think this is a hard choice. He’s a very talented politician. He’s extraordinarily popular, 65 percent job approval in a state she needs to win. This is really important. And I’ll tell you this … If she picks Shapiro on Tuesday, Donald Trump created Josh Shapiro,” Christie said Sunday on ABC News’s “This Week.”

“He endorsed Mastriano, the weakest Republican candidate in that field,” Christie added, referring to state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), who lost to Shapiro in Pennsylvania’s 2022 gubernatorial race.

The endorsement enabled Shapiro, Christie argued, to “play to his base” in a narrow election.

“He saw an opportunity for a coalition-building election, and that’s what he did,” Christie said.

“So now he’s seen as a coalition builder because he did it, but the only reason he could do it is because Trump made another ridiculously stupid endorsement by endorsing Mastriano, who was a flawed, weak, bad candidate. If Josh Shapiro winds up winning … and Trump loses Pennsylvania, he can go back to his decision in 2022 as planting the seeds for that loss.”

Is he wrong?

Walz is the head-scratcher being from a safe state and him still being in the running makes me think that he's being kept on the list as the safe choice that pisses off nobody - while Shapiro helps in PA he doesn't help in MI and I can see Walz being picked to help Harris consolidate with the left in her party. Not to mention Walz being an excellent attack dog - his hanging the "weird" label on all things conk seems to have stuck and left Trump in a stuttering "I'm not weird, you're weird" rage.

I think Christie is right but that Walz is getting more serious consideration than many think - if she's worried about the left donks threatening to pull a Bernie and stay home or Shapiro's reception in Michigan it'll be Walz

[GannonFan]

Harris picks Minnesota governor Tim Walz to be her vice presidential nominee. Glad it wasn't Shapiro, I want him here in PA for a little longer and if things go south for the Dems in November he can be there in 2028.

[Pwns]

With all this talk of who's weird Kamala needs to go for a white guy that you could see being the principle of your middle school. I think the days when you could claim a state by picking a VP from there are gone.

Just don't try to ban native-American mascot names nation-wide, please.

[Caribbean Hen]

Kriemelia didn’t pick anyone ….

[GannonFan]

With all this talk of who's weird Kamala needs to go for a white guy that you could see being the principle of your middle school. I think the days when you could claim a state by picking a VP from there are gone.

Just don't try to ban native-American mascot names nation-wide, please.

Sp, remember, the principal is your pal.

[BDKJMU]

Just goes to show too many antisemites in the Democrat party, esp Michigan..

The campus crazies with the warm weather will be out in full force with their tent cities this Sept..

[BDKJMU]

[UNI88]

Commiela? If someone attempts to assassinate her, you're responsible for calling her names and insinuating that she's a communist.

Using the deflection technique out of the MAQA yahoo playbook.

Oh Jesus, really?! To try and get out from under your disgusting fomenting the assassination attempt on Trump, you immediately try to pin blame on someone else, for what you have been guilty of for years. Shame.

What happened to you? Your shtick used be to descent. Now it's worse that JSO's. You're projecting when you talk about mailing it in.

[GannonFan]

Just goes to show too many antisemites in the Democrat party, esp Michigan..

The campus crazies with the warm weather will be out in full force with their tent cities this Sept..

That could be a problem for the Dems regardless of who the VP pick was. Walz over Shapiro isn't a knock on Shapiro or anything else. Just a reality that the Dems need to win Wisconsin and Michigan and Walz is a better candidate there than Shapiro would've been. PA's going to be a battle anyway, and Shapiro is still here as governor to advocate for the Harris ticket.

But yes, whatever happens in the Middle East over the next few weeks and months, and the reaction to that here in the US, will likely have an impact on the race.

[BDKJMU]

Remember who Bernie Sanders pick for VP was? Fellow socialist Tim Walz.

[Caribbean Hen]

I can send you guys some beautiful banana trees to plant in your new Republica back yards……

Y’all going to regret everything Harris just wait and see

[GannonFan]

Remember who Bernie Sanders pick for VP was? Fellow socialist Tim Walz.

When did he pick a VP? I don't remember that as he was never the nominee. Did he actually do that?

[BDKJMU]

Remember who Bernie Sanders pick for VP was? Fellow socialist Tim Walz.

When did he pick a VP? I don't remember that as he was never the nominee. Did he actually do that?

Maybe I misread that. Sanders was pushing for Walz to be Harris’s VP pick.

[GannonFan]

When did he pick a VP? I don't remember that as he was never the nominee. Did he actually do that?

Maybe I misread that. Sanders was pushing for Walz to be Harris’s VP pick.

Okay, that makes more sense. Yes, Bernie was probably pushing for Walz, that's clear.

[Caribbean Hen]

Joe C …

BDK ?

[UNI88]

Just goes to show too many antisemites in the Democrat party, esp Michigan..

The campus crazies with the warm weather will be out in full force with their tent cities this Sept..

Unfortunately, neither party has the moral high ground when it comes to antisemitism.

[BDKJMU]

Just goes to show too many antisemites in the Democrat party, esp Michigan..

The campus crazies with the warm weather will be out in full force with their tent cities this Sept..

Unfortunately, neither party has the moral high ground when it comes to antisemitism.

The conks have anti semites. The donks have WAY more.

[GannonFan]

Unfortunately, neither party has the moral high ground when it comes to antisemitism.

The conks have anti semites. The donks have WAY more.

Well, that could be the case, but the conk ones are only anti-semite in that they hate everything that's non-white and non-Chrisitan so the Jews fall into that mix. The donk ones are almost exclusively anti-Jew. But yes, both parties unfortunately have their segments of hate.

[UNI88]

Unfortunately, neither party has the moral high ground when it comes to antisemitism.

The conks have anti semites. The donks have WAY more.

Conks have one running for POTUS. Antisemites dine with trump. trump judges Jewish Americans, calling them fools or agreeing when someone calls one a crappy Jew?

Conks don't have the moral high ground.