Playoff Projections

[SuperHornet]

Please understand that this was prepared much earlier this week, following games played last week. Therefore, games already played today may have already shaken this up. I've made no attempt to assign seeds or matchups. This is just estimated auto-bids and at-large bids based on teams being at or reasonably close to the generally accepted 8 wins is in, depending on conference. Please note going in that I have a couple of outliers in here that you might find controversial.

Please discuss.

Auto-Bids

Big Sky -- Montana
Big South -- TN Tech
CAA -- Rhode Island
Ivy -- Harvard (MA)
MVFC -- ND State
NE -- C. CT State
Patriot -- Lehigh (PA)
Pioneer -- Drake (IA)
SoCon -- Mercer (GA)
Southland -- Stephen F. Austin (TX)
United -- Tarleton State (TX)

At-Large Bids

MT State
CA-Davis
Sacramento State (CA)
Villanova (PA)
South Dakota
IL State
SD State
Lamar (TX)
SE Louisiana
Sacred Heart (CT)
Monmouth (NJ)
Grambling State (LA)
St. Thomas (MN)

[Gil Dobie]

St Thomas plays in Fargo next weekend. Need to win to get in.

South Dakota St won't get in with 5 straight losses. Add UND and Youngstown if they win.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Please understand that this was prepared much earlier this week, following games played last week. Therefore, games already played today may have already shaken this up. I've made no attempt to assign seeds or matchups. This is just estimated auto-bids and at-large bids based on teams being at or reasonably close to the generally accepted 8 wins is in, depending on conference. Please note going in that I have a couple of outliers in here that you might find controversial.

Please discuss.

Auto-Bids

Big Sky -- Montana
Big South -- TN Tech
CAA -- Rhode Island
Ivy -- Harvard (MA)
MVFC -- ND State
NE -- C. CT State
Patriot -- Lehigh (PA)
Pioneer -- Drake (IA)
SoCon -- Mercer (GA)
Southland -- Stephen F. Austin (TX)
United -- Tarleton State (TX)

At-Large Bids

MT State
CA-Davis
Sacramento State (CA)
Villanova (PA)
South Dakota
IL State
SD State
Lamar (TX)
SE Louisiana
Sacred Heart (CT)
Monmouth (NJ)
Grambling State (LA)
St. Thomas (MN)

Grambling can't be in the playoffs because of the Bayou Classic.

I'd be really surprised if Sacred Heart got in. They've beaten nobody. Dartmouth, Yale (if they don't lose to Harvard badly), NAU, and Lafayette (if they don't lose to Lehigh badly) are much more likely.

[dal4018]

Please understand that this was prepared much earlier this week, following games played last week. Therefore, games already played today may have already shaken this up. I've made no attempt to assign seeds or matchups. This is just estimated auto-bids and at-large bids based on teams being at or reasonably close to the generally accepted 8 wins is in, depending on conference. Please note going in that I have a couple of outliers in here that you might find controversial.

Please discuss.

Auto-Bids

Big Sky -- Montana
Big South -- TN Tech
CAA -- Rhode Island
Ivy -- Harvard (MA)
MVFC -- ND State
NE -- C. CT State
Patriot -- Lehigh (PA)
Pioneer -- Drake (IA)
SoCon -- Mercer (GA)
Southland -- Stephen F. Austin (TX)
United -- Tarleton State (TX)

At-Large Bids

MT State
CA-Davis
Sacramento State (CA)
Villanova (PA)
South Dakota
IL State
SD State
Lamar (TX)
SE Louisiana
Sacred Heart (CT)
Monmouth (NJ)
Grambling State (LA)
St. Thomas (MN)

Grambling can't be in the playoffs because of the Bayou Classic.

I'd be really surprised if Sacred Heart got in. They've beaten nobody. Dartmouth, Yale (if they don't lose to Harvard badly), NAU, and Lafayette (if they don't lose to Lehigh badly) are much more likely.

Bingo

[89Hen]

Holy crap are the playoffs going to include some awful teams.

[SuperHornet]

Scratch that!

St. Thomas didn't hold serve; how do they lose to Presbyterian of all schools?!? Venus is unfortunately correct about Grambling-Southern; I was somehow conflating that game with the Celebration Bowl and figuring that Grambling wouldn't be involved with THAT. You might be right about Yale; could Ivy actually be a two-bid conference?

Thanks for the discussion, guys.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Scratch that!

St. Thomas didn't hold serve; how do they lose to Presbyterian of all schools?!? Venus is unfortunately correct about Grambling-Southern; I was somehow conflating that game with the Celebration Bowl and figuring that Grambling wouldn't be involved with THAT. You might be right about Yale; could Ivy actually be a two-bid conference?

Thanks for the discussion, guys.

Presbyterian's 9-2, and they beat Mercer.

The Ivy will definitely be a 2-bid league if Yale upsets Harvard (Yale gets the auto there). Dartmouth is probably on the bubble, so 3 bids is possible albeit unlikely.

[Caribbean Hen]

Holy crap are the playoffs going to include some awful teams.

About 20 or so

[Caribbean Hen]

Scratch that!

St. Thomas didn't hold serve; how do they lose to Presbyterian of all schools?!? Venus is unfortunately correct about Grambling-Southern; I was somehow conflating that game with the Celebration Bowl and figuring that Grambling wouldn't be involved with THAT. You might be right about Yale; could Ivy actually be a two-bid conference?

Thanks for the discussion, guys.

I would put three Ivy teams in

[89Hen]

Holy crap are the playoffs going to include some awful teams.

About 20 or so

I wouldn't go that far, but 24 has always been 8 too many, but this year is just awful. 16 may be too many.

[dal4018]

Scratch that!

St. Thomas didn't hold serve; how do they lose to Presbyterian of all schools?!? Venus is unfortunately correct about Grambling-Southern; I was somehow conflating that game with the Celebration Bowl and figuring that Grambling wouldn't be involved with THAT. You might be right about Yale; could Ivy actually be a two-bid conference?

Thanks for the discussion, guys.

I would put three Ivy teams in

Harvard is definitely going to be in the big show

[kalm]

Holy crap are the playoffs going to include some awful teams.

I totally appreciate you, 89.

Of course, I’m excited for new teams like Tenn. Tech, Abilene Christian, Tarleton, the Ivies etc. to experience the playoffs.

The first two weeks are like the opening two days of March Madness for me.

[Caribbean Hen]

Holy crap are the playoffs going to include some awful teams.

I totally appreciate you, 89.

Of course, I’m excited for new teams like Tenn. Tech, Abilene Christian, Tarleton, the Ivies etc. to experience the playoffs.

The first two weeks are like the opening two days of March Madness for me.

Abilene Christened overrated Big Sky N Arizona last year like 24-0

Yes let’s see at least 2 Ivies in … gonna be fun

[kalm]

I totally appreciate you, 89.

Of course, I’m excited for new teams like Tenn. Tech, Abilene Christian, Tarleton, the Ivies etc. to experience the playoffs.

The first two weeks are like the opening two days of March Madness for me.

Abilene Christened overrated Big Sky N Arizona last year like 24-0

Yes let’s see at least 2 Ivies in … gonna be fun

Ivies are like the CAA has been for years. SOS in the 70-90’s range. They may pass the eyeball test but they’ve played no one. I can see at best 2 getting in if Yale beats Harvard, but should they? By what metrics?

ACU meanwhile has a SoS of 11 and NAU is 16. ACU has two top 10 wins. NAU is short on that level of quality wins but ISU has been a dangerous team all season and SUU is coming on strong as of late having won 5 straight. Both have better wins than any from the Ivy. 8-4 teams out of the Valley and BSC historically are in.

[Caribbean Hen]

Abilene Christened overrated Big Sky N Arizona last year like 24-0

Yes let’s see at least 2 Ivies in … gonna be fun

Ivies are like the CAA has been for years. SOS in the 70-90’s range. They may pass the eyeball test but they’ve played no one. I can see at best 2 getting in if Yale beats Harvard, but should they? By what metrics?

ACU meanwhile has a SoS of 11 and NAU is 16. ACU has two top 10 wins. NAU is short on that level of quality wins but ISU has been a dangerous team all season and SUU is coming on strong as of late having won 5 straight. Both have better wins than any from the Ivy. 8-4 teams out of the Valley and BSC historically are in.

The eye test is 20 20 for me, don’t pay much attention to strength of schedule because the Bid Sky is rigged to the high side.

From our buddy Lance

“As stated in the previous thread and has been the plan the last couple seasons for the final week, there will be 50 total games this week. It's a battle to the finish to try and catch caribbeanhen. You'll have to pick some upsets to beat his chalk ridden form! What has been most impressive for Carib, is that even though he missed week 1, only 5 have a higher full season total.”

Lowest Score Dropped Standings
1 Caribbeanhen 249 (Brain-computer interface (BCI)

2 Massey 242. Mathematics

Humans
3 POD Knows 240
4 MSUBobcat 239
5footballer23 238
5 MTfan4life 238
7 grizband 236
8 Catbooster 235
9 Go Lehigh TU Owl 234
10 Eastonl3 219

[kalm]

Ivies are like the CAA has been for years. SOS in the 70-90’s range. They may pass the eyeball test but they’ve played no one. I can see at best 2 getting in if Yale beats Harvard, but should they? By what metrics?

ACU meanwhile has a SoS of 11 and NAU is 16. ACU has two top 10 wins. NAU is short on that level of quality wins but ISU has been a dangerous team all season and SUU is coming on strong as of late having won 5 straight. Both have better wins than any from the Ivy. 8-4 teams out of the Valley and BSC historically are in.

The eye test is 20 20 for me, don’t pay much attention to strength of schedule because the Bid Sky is rigged to the high side.

From our buddy Lance

“As stated in the previous thread and has been the plan the last couple seasons for the final week, there will be 50 total games this week. It's a battle to the finish to try and catch caribbeanhen. You'll have to pick some upsets to beat his chalk ridden form! What has been most impressive for Carib, is that even though he missed week 1, only 5 have a higher full season total.”

Lowest Score Dropped Standings
1 Caribbeanhen 249 (Brain-computer interface (BCI)

2 Massey 242. Mathematics

Humans
3 POD Knows 240
4 MSUBobcat 239
5footballer23 238
5 MTfan4life 238
7 grizband 236
8 Catbooster 235
9 Go Lehigh TU Owl 234
10 Eastonl3 219

I was aware you are quite the savant when it comes to pics. Congrats!

There’s of course more to selecting the tournament field, but impressive none the less.

The Big Sky has always been punished for it’s geography and challenges in filling out an OOC. EG: You can’t swing a dead cat in the Carolinas without hitting an FCS team. Hence cost savings on bus trips available mid-major and non schollie teams to pad the wins with, etc. Mercer would finish middle of the pack in the Big Sky this year.

It’s also why you see most BSC teams always play 1 if not 2 FBS each season. It helps with the massive travel costs seen in the overall budget for conference games alone.

While the Big Sky teams are scheduling home and homes with the Valley and FBS, the Ivies, CAA, and SoCoN stay close to home playing the Patriot, NEC, and MEAC.

The exception of course being the Montanas where the gate enables you to bring in similar opponents.

SOS matters. Bigly.

[Caribbean Hen]

The eye test is 20 20 for me, don’t pay much attention to strength of schedule because the Bid Sky is rigged to the high side.

From our buddy Lance

“As stated in the previous thread and has been the plan the last couple seasons for the final week, there will be 50 total games this week. It's a battle to the finish to try and catch caribbeanhen. You'll have to pick some upsets to beat his chalk ridden form! What has been most impressive for Carib, is that even though he missed week 1, only 5 have a higher full season total.”

Lowest Score Dropped Standings
1 Caribbeanhen 249 (Brain-computer interface (BCI)

2 Massey 242. Mathematics

Humans
3 POD Knows 240
4 MSUBobcat 239
5footballer23 238
5 MTfan4life 238
7 grizband 236
8 Catbooster 235
9 Go Lehigh TU Owl 234
10 Eastonl3 219

I was aware you are quite the savant when it comes to pics. Congrats!

There’s of course more to selecting the tournament field, but impressive none the less.

The Big Sky has always been punished for it’s geography and challenges in filling out an OOC. EG: You can’t swing a dead cat in the Carolinas without hitting an FCS team. Hence cost savings on bus trips available mid-major and non schollie teams to pad the wins with, etc. Mercer would finish middle of the pack in the Big Sky this year.

It’s also why you see most BSC teams always play 1 if not 2 FBS each season. It helps with the massive travel costs seen in the overall budget for conference games alone.

While the Big Sky teams are scheduling home and homes with the Valley and FBS, the Ivies, CAA, and SoCoN stay close to home playing the Patriot, NEC, and MEAC.

The exception of course being the Montanas where the gate enables you to bring in similar opponents.

SOS matters. Bigly.

I think you under estimate Mercer

If Sacred Heart goes out to Montana and puts up a good showing, you might not wanna know what Mercer would do

They might not beat Montana on the road and definitely not beating Montana State, but is third place in the middle of the Big Sky ?

After Montana State and Montana, the Big Sky gets polluted very quickly
Hopefully, we will get to see Mercer or a Harvard play somebody like a UC Davis …

[kalm]

I was aware you are quite the savant when it comes to pics. Congrats!

There’s of course more to selecting the tournament field, but impressive none the less.

The Big Sky has always been punished for it’s geography and challenges in filling out an OOC. EG: You can’t swing a dead cat in the Carolinas without hitting an FCS team. Hence cost savings on bus trips available mid-major and non schollie teams to pad the wins with, etc. Mercer would finish middle of the pack in the Big Sky this year.

It’s also why you see most BSC teams always play 1 if not 2 FBS each season. It helps with the massive travel costs seen in the overall budget for conference games alone.

While the Big Sky teams are scheduling home and homes with the Valley and FBS, the Ivies, CAA, and SoCoN stay close to home playing the Patriot, NEC, and MEAC.

The exception of course being the Montanas where the gate enables you to bring in similar opponents.

SOS matters. Bigly.

I think you under estimate Mercer

If Sacred Heart goes out to Montana and puts up a good showing, you might not wanna know what Mercer would do

They might not beat Montana on the road and definitely not beating Montana State, but is third place in the middle of the Big Sky ?

After Montana State and Montana, the Big Sky gets polluted very quickly
Hopefully, we will get to see Mercer or a Harvard play somebody like a UC Davis …

Mercer lost to Presby. Their other FCS OOC was a 3-6 Princeton.

But I agree…it’s too bad their Davis game got cancelled. Mercer would have at least three more losses if they played in the BSC.

[Caribbean Hen]

I think you under estimate Mercer

If Sacred Heart goes out to Montana and puts up a good showing, you might not wanna know what Mercer would do

They might not beat Montana on the road and definitely not beating Montana State, but is third place in the middle of the Big Sky ?

After Montana State and Montana, the Big Sky gets polluted very quickly
Hopefully, we will get to see Mercer or a Harvard play somebody like a UC Davis …

Mercer lost to Presby. Their other FCS OOC was a 3-6 Princeton.

But I agree…it’s too bad their Davis game got cancelled. Mercer would have at least three more losses if they played in the BSC.

Mercer man handled Princeton. I watched a little bit of that game and was thinking Mercer is top 10 easy.

I look at Mercer and judge them highly because of their quarterback, who’s red hot and he has a lot of athletic and good wide receivers.

That UC Davis game opening up the season was interesting too as Davis jumped out to a pretty nice lead, but by the fourth quarter Mercer was coming back and looked like they were gonna win it, the Big Sky commissioner must’ve called in that weather to avoid the embarrassing loss

[kalm]

Mercer lost to Presby. Their other FCS OOC was a 3-6 Princeton.

But I agree…it’s too bad their Davis game got cancelled. Mercer would have at least three more losses if they played in the BSC.

Mercer man handled Princeton. I watched a little bit of that game and was thinking Mercer is top 10 easy.

I look at Mercer and judge them highly because of their quarterback, who’s red hot and he has a lot of athletic and good wide receivers.

That UC Davis game opening up the season was interesting too as Davis jumped out to a pretty nice lead, but by the fourth quarter Mercer was coming back and looked like they were gonna win it, the Big Sky commissioner must’ve called in that weather to avoid the embarrassing loss

Man handling a 3-6 Princeton is top 10 material?

Ok.

[Caribbean Hen]

Mercer man handled Princeton. I watched a little bit of that game and was thinking Mercer is top 10 easy.

I look at Mercer and judge them highly because of their quarterback, who’s red hot and he has a lot of athletic and good wide receivers.

That UC Davis game opening up the season was interesting too as Davis jumped out to a pretty nice lead, but by the fourth quarter Mercer was coming back and looked like they were gonna win it, the Big Sky commissioner must’ve called in that weather to avoid the embarrassing loss

Man handling a 3-6 Princeton is top 10 material?

Ok.

This is where the “eyes” come in

At the time that game was played, Mercer was closer to 25 but they kept winning every week and eventually ended up in the top 10

You can’t be distracted by strength of schedule, you have to know how to gauge what you’re looking at.

[kalm]

Man handling a 3-6 Princeton is top 10 material?

Ok.

This is where the “eyes” come in

At the time that game was played, Mercer was closer to 25 but they kept winning every week and eventually ended up in the top 10

You can’t be distracted by strength of schedule, you have to know how to gauge what you’re looking at.

What you’re looking at is skewed by the talent of the opponent.

EWU went toe to toe with #3 Montana in Missoula. They looked like playoff caliber team in both sides of the ball. That same team lost to 3-8 UNI and looked terrible.

[Caribbean Hen]

This is where the “eyes” come in

At the time that game was played, Mercer was closer to 25 but they kept winning every week and eventually ended up in the top 10

You can’t be distracted by strength of schedule, you have to know how to gauge what you’re looking at.

What you’re looking at is skewed by the talent of the opponent.

EWU went toe to toe with #3 Montana in Missoula. They looked like playoff caliber team in both sides of the ball. That same team lost to 3-8 UNI and looked terrible.

Exactly ! I have a method for dealing with that

[dal4018]

Mercer lost to Presby. Their other FCS OOC was a 3-6 Princeton.

But I agree…it’s too bad their Davis game got cancelled. Mercer would have at least three more losses if they played in the BSC.

Mercer man handled Princeton. I watched a little bit of that game and was thinking Mercer is top 10 easy.

I look at Mercer and judge them highly because of their quarterback, who’s red hot and he has a lot of athletic and good wide receivers.

That UC Davis game opening up the season was interesting too as Davis jumped out to a pretty nice lead, but by the fourth quarter Mercer was coming back and looked like they were gonna win it, the Big Sky commissioner must’ve called in that weather to avoid the embarrassing loss

The Mercer QB is the obvious frontrunner for the Rice Award For Impact Frosh he leads the FCS in passing yds.

[Caribbean Hen]

Mercer man handled Princeton. I watched a little bit of that game and was thinking Mercer is top 10 easy.

I look at Mercer and judge them highly because of their quarterback, who’s red hot and he has a lot of athletic and good wide receivers.

That UC Davis game opening up the season was interesting too as Davis jumped out to a pretty nice lead, but by the fourth quarter Mercer was coming back and looked like they were gonna win it, the Big Sky commissioner must’ve called in that weather to avoid the embarrassing loss

The Mercer QB is the obvious frontrunner for the Rice Award For Impact Frosh he leads the FCS in passing yds.

Hopefully they got out of Alabama without any major injuries