Playoff Projections- Nov. 15

[UNHWildCats]

How is Liberty in this discussion when it pertains to playoffs? Their resume doesn't even come close to comparing to EWU/SDSU/Weber/MT State. SOS has to mean something if this comes down to the last 2-3 spots of playoffs.

if EWU, MSU and Weber all lose next week (not totally impossible) none of them would have 7 Div I wins and that opens the door for Liberty... thats the only way the door opens for Liberty... Unless u want to give the Patriot or MEAC a second spot or give CCSU a spot.

[MrTitleist]

Weber played up twice and had two or three other games vs. FCS top 25. Liberty played up once... that's about where the resume ends. JMU/Lafayette may have been ranked at time of playing, but neither are ranked now. IMO, a 7 win Weber/EWU > Liberty. Liberty has a nice W/L, but not a strong resume.. 8-2 is a nice season nonetheless though.

[MrTitleist]

How is Liberty in this discussion when it pertains to playoffs? Their resume doesn't even come close to comparing to EWU/SDSU/Weber/MT State. SOS has to mean something if this comes down to the last 2-3 spots of playoffs.

if EWU, MSU and Weber all lose next week (not totally impossible) none of them would have 7 Div I wins and that opens the door for Liberty... thats the only way the door opens for Liberty... Unless u want to give the Patriot or MEAC a second spot or give CCSU a spot.

Eeeek!

[UNHWildCats]

Weber played up twice and had two or three other games vs. FCS top 25. Liberty played up once... that's about where the resume ends. JMU/Lafayette may have been ranked at time of playing, but neither are ranked now. IMO, a 7 win Weber/EWU > Liberty. Liberty has a nice W/L, but not a strong resume.. 8-2 is a nice season nonetheless though.

playing up doenst help unless u win. Why should Weber be rewarded for playing up and losing. Had they played another FCS team instead they probably wouldnt be on the bubble right now.

But yes... if any of the 3 Big Sky teams get the 7th win next week they are in over Liberty, no doubt at all. They just need that 7th win first.

[danefan]

Weber played up twice and had two or three other games vs. FCS top 25. Liberty played up once... that's about where the resume ends. JMU/Lafayette may have been ranked at time of playing, but neither are ranked now. IMO, a 7 win Weber/EWU > Liberty. Liberty has a nice W/L, but not a strong resume.. 8-2 is a nice season nonetheless though.

playing up doenst help unless u win. Why should Weber be rewarded for playing up and losing. Had they played another FCS team instead they probably wouldnt be on the bubble right now.

But yes... if any of the 3 Big Sky teams get the 7th win next week they are in over Liberty, no doubt at all. They just need that 7th win first.

I don't think its that cut and dry actually. I agree with you that if MSU wins, they'll be in.
Other than that, you're looking at EWU and Weber with 7 DI wins and no real quality wins. I mean I guess you can point to EWU's win over MSU, but if EWU is in the conversation its only because MSU is a 6-win team. Same goes for Weber. If Weber is in the conversation they're best win will be over EWU and EWU will be a 6-win team.

Liberty would be in the same boat, but they'd have 8 DI wins. Its not as cut and dry as you make it sound.

[Willie]

EWU has to beat NAU next week I think.

If not, I can see Liberty getting in over a 4-loss EWU.

Liberty should be more concerned with Montana State. At this point I think MSU controls its own destiny for the 16th spot, and Montana hasnt exactly played impressive ball this year, so I wouldnt be surprised to see MSU win.

No offense, but you have no idea how either team has played, or what the Rivalry means. Montana will win, again. But either way, it doesn't matter. We have the auto-bid and will get a home game so who really cares.

[kalm]

playing up doenst help unless u win. Why should Weber be rewarded for playing up and losing. Had they played another FCS team instead they probably wouldnt be on the bubble right now.

But yes... if any of the 3 Big Sky teams get the 7th win next week they are in over Liberty, no doubt at all. They just need that 7th win first.

I don't think its that cut and dry actually. I agree with you that if MSU wins, they'll be in.
Other than that, you're looking at EWU and Weber with 7 DI wins and no real quality wins. I mean I guess you can point to EWU's win over MSU, but if EWU is in the conversation its only because MSU is a 6-win team. Same goes for Weber. If Weber is in the conversation they're best win will be over EWU and EWU will be a 6-win team.

Liberty would be in the same boat, but they'd have 8 DI wins. Its not as cut and dry as you make it sound.

EWU would have 7 wins if the beat NAU. So Weber would have wins against EWU, NAU, and Poly. EWU would have wins over MSU, NAU, and SUU. MSU would have wins over UM, Weber, and SD. All of these teams mentioned will finish with GPI's in the top 50. How many of Liberty's 8 will?

The quality of the wins is just as important .

[danefan]

I don't think its that cut and dry actually. I agree with you that if MSU wins, they'll be in.
Other than that, you're looking at EWU and Weber with 7 DI wins and no real quality wins. I mean I guess you can point to EWU's win over MSU, but if EWU is in the conversation its only because MSU is a 6-win team. Same goes for Weber. If Weber is in the conversation they're best win will be over EWU and EWU will be a 6-win team.

Liberty would be in the same boat, but they'd have 8 DI wins. Its not as cut and dry as you make it sound.

EWU would have 7 wins if the beat NAU. So Weber would have wins against EWU, NAU, and Poly. EWU would have wins over MSU, NAU, and SUU. MSU would have wins over UM, Weber, and SD. All of these teams mentioned will finish with GPI's in the top 50. How many of Liberty's 8 will?

The quality of the wins is just as important .

But, Weber will likely only be in the discussion if EWU isn't. Which means that EWU won't have 7 DI wins.

And EWU will likely only be in the discussion if Montana State isn't. Which means that MSU won't have 7 DI wins.

See where I'm going with this?

If Montana State wins - they're in,.
If MSU loses and EWU wins - they're in.
If MSU and EWU lose and Weber St wins - it will come down to Weber St. versus Liberty and I think that's a toss up. I can realistically see the committee taking Liberty over Weber St in that scenario.

[kalm]

EWU would have 7 wins if the beat NAU. So Weber would have wins against EWU, NAU, and Poly. EWU would have wins over MSU, NAU, and SUU. MSU would have wins over UM, Weber, and SD. All of these teams mentioned will finish with GPI's in the top 50. How many of Liberty's 8 will?

The quality of the wins is just as important .

But, Weber will likely only be in the discussion if EWU isn't. Which means that EWU won't have 7 DI wins.

And EWU will likely only be in the discussion if Montana State isn't. Which means that MSU won't have 7 DI wins.

See where I'm going with this?

If Montana State wins - they're in,.
If MSU loses and EWU wins - they're in.
If MSU and EWU lose and Weber St wins - it will come down to Weber St. versus Liberty and I think that's a toss up. I can realistically see the committee taking Liberty over Weber St in that scenario.

Unless Montana State blows out the Griz, I can't see how a close MSU win over Montana at home trumps EWU's head to head win over the cats and a close loss to the Griz on the road. The two resume's are almost identical and head to head is an easier justification than strength of victory. Or should we get into the fact that MSU barely beat Dixie State and SD at home while EWU had blow out wins against its DII and on the road against SUU?

[SuperHornet]

Seven wins? Given a win next week, and Liberty will be 9-2. Snubbing a 9-2 team isn't likely.

In addition, Weber has the nod over EWU in SOS, I believe. I'd like to see three BSC as well (probably UM/Kitties/Weber), but ECB will ensure that we get TWO. If that.

Regardless, I stand by my prediction of Griz over Liberty in Chatty.

[kalm]

Seven wins? Given a win next week, and Liberty will be 9-2. Snubbing a 9-2 team isn't likely.

In addition, Weber has the nod over EWU in SOS, I believe. I'd like to see three BSC as well (probably UM/Kitties/Weber), but ECB will ensure that we get TWO. If that.

Regardless, I stand by my prediction of Griz over Liberty in Chatty.

So your going to use SOS in the Weber instance but not in evaluating Liberty's schedule:

9/05 @ West Virginia 0-1 (0-0) L 33-20
9/12 North Carolina Central 1-1 (0-0) W 35-10
9/19 @ Lafayette 2-1 (0-0) W 19-13
9/26 James Madison 2-2 (0-0) L 24-10
10/03 West Virginia Wesleyan 3-2 (0-0) W 45-7
10/17 Coastal Carolina 4-2 (1-0) W 58-13
10/24 @ Charleston Southern 5-2 (2-0) W 20-13
10/31 Presbyterian 6-2 (3-0) W 55-19
11/07 Virginia Military Institute 7-2 (4-0) W 54-14
11/14 @ Gardner-Webb 8-2 (5-0) W 51-28
11/21 @ Stony Brook

[Grizalltheway]

One bad game. One bad game!

Montana:

1st in scoring offense
1st in total offense
1st in rushing offense
2nd in rushing defense
1st in passing efficiency
1st in interceptions
1st in sacks allowed
1st in 3rd down conversion percentage
1st in red zone defense TD's allowed
2nd in turnover margin
2nd in opponents penalties

I could go on and on, but you get the picture.

Looking where games were in the 4th quarter, Montana could easily be 5-5 right now if things didnt always fall their way. Montana will be ripe for a first round exit this year... just like 2007 and 2005 and 2003... see a trend there

Travis, you're so full of shit sometimes it ain't even funny. Wait, yes it is.

[AZGrizFan]

Looking where games were in the 4th quarter, Montana could easily be 5-5 right now if things didnt always fall their way. Montana will be ripe for a first round exit this year... just like 2007 and 2005 and 2003... see a trend there

Travis, just when I think you know something about football, you prove me wrong and show your ignorance again.

UNH 24-14 against ST FRANCIS, a school so small they have to put (PA) behind it so we know what STATE it's in.
UNH 28-24 against Villanova, a game in which you trailed in the 4th quarter
UNH 18-10 against Hofstra, a game that, well...you get the picture.

EVERY team has games you could point to and say EXACTLY what you've said about Montana. UNH could be 5-5 and out of the playoffs. Villanova could have easily been 6-4 looking at "where games were in the 4th quarter". Richmond could have been 5-5.

Go take your ECB and stick it where the sun don't shine.

[kalm]

Looking where games were in the 4th quarter, Montana could easily be 5-5 right now if things didnt always fall their way. Montana will be ripe for a first round exit this year... just like 2007 and 2005 and 2003... see a trend there

Travis, just when I think you know something about football, you prove me wrong and show your ignorance again.

UNH 24-14 against ST FRANCIS, a school so small they have to put (PA) behind it so we know what STATE it's in.
UNH 28-24 against Villanova, a game in which you trailed in the 4th quarter
UNH 18-10 against Hofstra, a game that, well...you get the picture.

EVERY team has games you could point to and say EXACTLY what you've said about Montana. UNH could be 5-5 and out of the playoffs. Villanova could have easily been 6-4 looking at "where games were in the 4th quarter". Richmond could have been 5-5.

Go take your ECB and stick it where the sun don't shine.

Don't go knocking ST F of PA. They're the key 8th DI win that's gonna punch the ticket of not only UNH but UNI as well.

[AZGrizFan]

Travis, just when I think you know something about football, you prove me wrong and show your ignorance again.

UNH 24-14 against ST FRANCIS, a school so small they have to put (PA) behind it so we know what STATE it's in.
UNH 28-24 against Villanova, a game in which you trailed in the 4th quarter
UNH 18-10 against Hofstra, a game that, well...you get the picture.

EVERY team has games you could point to and say EXACTLY what you've said about Montana. UNH could be 5-5 and out of the playoffs. Villanova could have easily been 6-4 looking at "where games were in the 4th quarter". Richmond could have been 5-5.

Go take your ECB and stick it where the sun don't shine.

Don't go knocking ST F of PA. They're the key 8th DI win that's gonna punch the ticket of not only UNH but UNI as well.

And half the D-II teams we play to fill out our schedules in the west would kick their ass all over the field.

[T-Dog]

I don't think Elon's a lock. They had a bunch of injuries yesterday and are no lock @ Samford. If they lose, they're right on the bubble.

[danefan]

But, Weber will likely only be in the discussion if EWU isn't. Which means that EWU won't have 7 DI wins.

And EWU will likely only be in the discussion if Montana State isn't. Which means that MSU won't have 7 DI wins.

See where I'm going with this?

If Montana State wins - they're in,.
If MSU loses and EWU wins - they're in.
If MSU and EWU lose and Weber St wins - it will come down to Weber St. versus Liberty and I think that's a toss up. I can realistically see the committee taking Liberty over Weber St in that scenario.

Unless Montana State blows out the Griz, I can't see how a close MSU win over Montana at home trumps EWU's head to head win over the cats and a close loss to the Griz on the road. The two resume's are almost identical and head to head is an easier justification than strength of victory. Or should we get into the fact that MSU barely beat Dixie State and SD at home while EWU had blow out wins against its DII and on the road against SUU?

I think you're arguing a different point than I. I think EWU is a better team than MSU. I have EWU ranked much higher than MSU.

That hasn't even come into my mind in this thread.

I am just trying to think like the committee does and in doing so, I come out with MSU in over EWU if MSU wins next week.

[DJH]

Don't go knocking ST F of PA. They're the key 8th DI win that's gonna punch the ticket of not only UNH but UNI as well.

And half the D-II teams we play to fill out our schedules in the west would kick their ass all over the field.

[kalm]

Unless Montana State blows out the Griz, I can't see how a close MSU win over Montana at home trumps EWU's head to head win over the cats and a close loss to the Griz on the road. The two resume's are almost identical and head to head is an easier justification than strength of victory. Or should we get into the fact that MSU barely beat Dixie State and SD at home while EWU had blow out wins against its DII and on the road against SUU?

I think you're arguing a different point than I. I think EWU is a better team than MSU. I have EWU ranked much higher than MSU.

That hasn't even come into my mind in this thread.

I am just trying to think like the committee does and in doing so, I come out with MSU in over EWU if MSU wins next week.

No I'm arguing exactly the same point and looking at it from exactly the same perspective. Is the committee going to make their decision based on the win/loss record against Montana or which is the better and more deserving team? MSU beating Montana at home this week would be a quality win for sure but doesn't neccessarily mean that EWU couldn't do the same. The same can be said for if Montana State had played EWU at home. But of course both of those scenario's are speculation. What we know for sure is that MSU and EWU would have the same record, MSU would have one more quality win, they both played the Griz well, and EWU won the head to head.

Again, the question is whether the commitee feels one quality win trumps the head to head.

[AZGrizFan]

And half the D-II teams we play to fill out our schedules in the west would kick their ass all over the field.

Sometimes truth hurts.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

The way I see it, WSU and EWU will both win next week. MSU will play a tough game against UM, but not enough and will in most-likelihood lose. The leaves EWU at 8-3 and WSU at 7-4. WSU played the tougher schedule due to the TWO FBS games, vs. ONE for EWU, however that doesn't matter given that WSU lost both of their FBS games. Can anyone tell me the last time a 7-4 team was chosen for an at-large over an 8-3 team (not from the NEC or Patriot) that did not win an FBS game? EWU despite losing the head to head, will get in based on having only 3 losses instead of 4, and playing Montana much closer than Weber. The loss to WSU at home is mitigated by our win over MSU and Weber losing to MSU in Ogden.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying the Griz will destroy the Cats (although I wouldn't mind ), but I think that the Griz will likely come away with a win. Cats will give them a game though.

[ToTheLeft]

EWU would have 7 wins if the beat NAU. So Weber would have wins against EWU, NAU, and Poly. EWU would have wins over MSU, NAU, and SUU. MSU would have wins over UM, Weber, and SD. All of these teams mentioned will finish with GPI's in the top 50. How many of Liberty's 8 will?

The quality of the wins is just as important .

Lafayette will be, even with a loss to Lehigh.
Coastal, Chuck South, and Gardner Webb will all be close, if not in the top 50.
Stony Brook will be in the ballpark.

Liberty has one FCS loss to a top 20 GPI team, and the possibility for a few top 50 wins, but at least one or two depending on next week's results.

[DJH]

Sometimes truth hurts.

Yeah, because when I think tough non-con scheduling, I think Montana...

[kalm]

Sometimes truth hurts.

Yeah, because when I think tough non-con scheduling, I think Montana...

Montana's 4th best win (NAU or Sac) will be comparable to UNI's best (Missouri State)

[DJH]

Yeah, because when I think tough non-con scheduling, I think Montana...

Montana's 4th best win (NAU or Sac) will be comparable to UNI's best (Missouri State)

The best team Montana will play, would be the 4th best team on UNI's schedule.