Ryan Howard Now Has To Figure Out How To Spend $125 Million

[UNHWildCats]

Ryan Howard will remain in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform through the 2016 season after agreeing to a five-year extension worth an average of $25 million per year.

The slugging first baseman has agreed to a five-year, $125 million extension that will kick in starting with the 2012 season. If Howard reaches incentive clauses and the team picks up its option for the 2017 season, Howard could earn as much as $138 million.

Howard will earn $20 million in each of the 2012 and 2013 seasons and $25 million per season from 2014-16. The Phillies hold a club option for the 2017 season that is worth $23 million with a $10 million buyout.

Howard also received a limited no-trade clause in the contract.

Howard, 30, has 225 career home runs in 750 games. This season he is hitting .275 with three homers and 16 RBIs.

His 225 home runs are good for fifth in club history behind only Mike Schmidt (548), Del Ennis (259), Pat Burrell (251), and Chuck Klein (243). His .583 slugging percentage is the best in Phillies history.

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[Fact]

Don't get me wrong.. Ryan Howard is a great hitter and a good guy, but given what history has taught us he's more than likely going to be a white elephant by about 2014 (with two years left on the contract.)

[UNHWildCats]

Don't get me wrong.. Ryan Howard is a great hitter and a good guy, but given what history has taught us he's more than likely going to be a white elephant by about 2014 (with two years left on the contract.)

Chad Finn of the Boston Globe said this "Ryan Howard's three most similar hitters through age 29: Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn. Yes, it will be regrettable."

[Grizalltheway]

Richie Sexson.

[GannonFan]

Don't get me wrong.. Ryan Howard is a great hitter and a good guy, but given what history has taught us he's more than likely going to be a white elephant by about 2014 (with two years left on the contract.)

Chad Finn of the Boston Globe said this "Ryan Howard's three most similar hitters through age 29: Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn. Yes, it will be regrettable."

The difference is, those other 3 guys all played extensively at the major league level prior to the age Howard did, so Howard's got a lot more left than some of those guys did. Plus, Howard's hitting at a time when ballparks everywhere, including his own, are smaller and more hittable than at any time in the past several decades. And Howard's got the comfort of hitting in the midst of much better lineups than those others did (Rollins, Polanco, and Utley ahead of him, with Werth, Ibanez (or Dominic Brown eventually), and Victorino behind him.

And those other guys never had Howard's numbers - Howard's been in the bigs now for 4 complete seasons, never having less than 45 HR's or 136 RBI's in any of those years.

Plus, Howard's already shown that he's going a different direction than Mo Vaugh - Howard's losing tons of weight and is almost unrecognizeably skinny these days - Vaughn was adding 20 lbs a year and needed a tarp to cover him by the time he floundered into a Mets uniform.

A plus side about this contract - it pretty much freezes his salary for two years - he's making 19M this year and is going to make 20M in 2011 - this contract continues $20M for 2012 and 2013, potentially opening up the possibility of the Phils actually being able to keep Werth after this year (Werth's a FA after this year and only making $7.5M right now). If the Phils can keep him and potentially get Brown up to the big leagues next year (replacing Ibanez who's signed through 2011) then the Phils should be good for another 3-4 years with the same guys. No one's really older than 31 right now (except for Moyer who's done after this year).

[Fact]

No way the Phillies keep Werth unless they start spending like the Yankees. The fact is that Chase Utley is even older than Howard (playing a more defensively demanding position) Werth and Rollins are both on the wrong side of 30 as well. Howard may always have a power stroke, but he won't be able to sustain bat speed to keep up with big league fast balls and he will have a hard time making sufficient contact (see Ortiz, David) when his body starts to go on him he'll be such a defensive liability that the Phillies will end up eating some of his salary and trading him to an AL team.

[GannonFan]

No way the Phillies keep Werth unless they start spending like the Yankees. The fact is that Chase Utley is even older than Howard (playing a more defensively demanding position) Werth and Rollins are both on the wrong side of 30 as well. Howard may always have a power stroke, but he won't be able to sustain bat speed to keep up with big league fast balls and he will have a hard time making sufficient contact (see Ortiz, David) when his body starts to go on him he'll be such a defensive liability that the Phillies will end up eating some of his salary and trading him to an AL team.

The Phillies are about $70M behind the Yankees right now in annual spending - hard to imagine that Werth is going to command close to $70M per year more than he's getting now. Of course the Phils will need to go above $140M to keep Werth, but 81 sell outs this year could help in that regard.

As for Utley, he's 31 this season. It's not as if that's terribly old. The Phils have this core together, in decent shape and age, for another 3-4 years. No one is saying they have more than that. I think Rollins is a guy that will sink sooner than others, but Werth will just turn 31 in late May and he's only played something like 5 MLB seasons so it's not like he's got tons of mileage on him. And Howard's already started to adress the body and health issues. Like I said, he looks downright skinny out there. Considering that Ortiz never slimmed down and had the ravages of steroids to his body, it's not exactly a fair comparison to Howard, especially since Howard's always been much more about power than Ortiz ever was.

[Fact]

In perspective, Joe Mauer's annual salary will be lower than Howard's. I don't know how you can quantify this as a good move. The Phillies are guaranteeing 125 million bucks to a guy who already doesn't run that well. Jayson Werth is going to get a lot of money from a desperate team like the cubs and bolt.

[93henfan]

Howard's already started to adress the body and health issues. Like I said, he looks downright skinny out there. Considering that Ortiz never slimmed down and had the ravages of steroids to his body, it's not exactly a fair comparison to Howard, especially since Howard's always been much more about power than Ortiz ever was.

Precisely. Howard is in damn good shape for a cleanup hitter. The only shape Ortiz or Fielder were ever in was pear.

[GannonFan]

In perspective, Joe Mauer's annual salary will be lower than Howard's. I don't know how you can quantify this as a good move. The Phillies are guaranteeing 125 million bucks to a guy who already doesn't run that well. Jayson Werth is going to get a lot of money from a desperate team like the cubs and bolt.

Well, to put that into perspective, Mauer's never hit more than 28 HR's in a season, has never driven in 96 RBI's in a season, and has already logged 5 years at the catcher position, something certainly more taxing than the 1B position that Howard is manning. And again, it's not like Howard hasn't been taking better care of his body - he's in better shape today than he's ever been over the past few years - this isn't the soft, overweight guy who was killing his knees 3 years ago.

And yes, Werth may certainly go, but at some point you can't keep everyone because, as you say, the Phils aren't the Yankees. However, some cost certainty for Howard helps tie down the math for Werth and Howard basically playing for no pay raise through 2012 is an interesting aspect of this deal. Without seeing the contract before now, I never would've thought that the Phils can keep both Werth and Howard - now, with the money on the table, it's not crazy to see that they could keep them both with a smaller than expected uptick in total team salary.

[AZGrizFan]

While I don't think ANYONE is worth the ridiculous salaries they're handing out in the MLB, if ANYONE is worth it, Howard is. He's as close to a sure thing as there is in baseball right now. I did not, however, realize that he was already 30. As is typical of most superstar contracts, his will be an albatross in the final year, and they'll take the $10 mill buyout and be happy.

[93henfan]

Size comparisons:

Ryan Howard



David Ortiz



Cecil Fielder

[Fact]

Oh yes, "Ryan Howard is in the best shape of his life" that's such a Jason Starkian argument. What The Phils are doing is paying A-Rod money to Fred McGriff or slightly better. Ryan Howard was the third best player on the Phillies they will owe 15 million to a 35 year old chase utley and 25 million to a 34 year old ryan howard eventually.. that's 40 million owed to OLD players.

[AZGrizFan]

Oh yes, "Ryan Howard is in the best shape of his life" that's such a Jason Starkian argument. What The Phils are doing is paying A-Rod money to Fred McGriff or slightly better. Ryan Howard was the third best player on the Phillies they will owe 15 million to a 35 year old chase utley and 25 million to a 34 year old ryan howard eventually.. that's 40 million owed to OLD players.

That's the way baseball has worked for YEARS. You underpay now...you overpay when they're over the hill....$25 million in 4 years is only about $20 million in NPV....still a good deal for the Phils.

[Fact]

Ryan Howard isn't the best player on his own team.. Why make him the second highest paid in the sport? It doesn't make any sense at all. They couldn't have waited until after the season to make this happen?

[AZGrizFan]

Ryan Howard isn't the best player on his own team.. Why make him the second highest paid in the sport? It doesn't make any sense at all. They couldn't have waited until after the season to make this happen?

Statistics say otherwise.

[GannonFan]

Ryan Howard isn't the best player on his own team.. Why make him the second highest paid in the sport? It doesn't make any sense at all. They couldn't have waited until after the season to make this happen?

Statistics say otherwise.

Well, one can certainly argue that Utley is a more important position player than Howard is. Of course, together they are both quite forminable and each one benefits from the other so it's a moot point.

But as for the "waiting until the season is over to make this happen", sure, they could've waited, but by that time Werth would be a free agent and the Phillies will have closed their window on keeping him. Getting Howard settled now means that they know what money they've committed to and they have a whole season to try to work out a deal with Werth that will keep him off the market, because if he hits the FA market there will be other teams (Yanks, Sox, Cubs) who will probably be able to spend more than the Phillies. Keeping Werth is unlikely now, but it would be impossible to keep him if you waited until the end of the year.

But as for paying for "old" players - come on, even at the end of the contracts these guys are 35 years old. So only at the very end of the deals do they start to even become old, and plenty of guys, especially power guys, are good into their late 30's. For the bulk of these contracts (2-4 years) the Phils have guys in the prime of their careers. It's not like they're signing bums here. Who knows, these guys probably have another 3-4 pennants in them. That's worth paying for.

[Gil Dobie]

In perspective, Joe Mauer's annual salary will be lower than Howard's. I don't know how you can quantify this as a good move. The Phillies are guaranteeing 125 million bucks to a guy who already doesn't run that well. Jayson Werth is going to get a lot of money from a desperate team like the cubs and bolt.

Well, to put that into perspective, Mauer's never hit more than 28 HR's in a season, has never driven in 96 RBI's in a season, and has already logged 5 years at the catcher position, something certainly more taxing than the 1B position that Howard is manning. And again, it's not like Howard hasn't been taking better care of his body - he's in better shape today than he's ever been over the past few years - this isn't the soft, overweight guy who was killing his knees 3 years ago.

And yes, Werth may certainly go, but at some point you can't keep everyone because, as you say, the Phils aren't the Yankees. However, some cost certainty for Howard helps tie down the math for Werth and Howard basically playing for no pay raise through 2012 is an interesting aspect of this deal. Without seeing the contract before now, I never would've thought that the Phils can keep both Werth and Howard - now, with the money on the table, it's not crazy to see that they could keep them both with a smaller than expected uptick in total team salary.

This is great for Howard and the Phillies, but why do people have to slam Mauer, a guy with 3 batting titles and an MVP. It's apples and oranges, Mauer is more of a George Brett type hitter, Howard is more of a power hitter.

[AZGrizFan]

Statistics say otherwise.

Well, one can certainly argue that Utley is a more important position player than Howard is. Of course, together they are both quite forminable and each one benefits from the other so it's a moot point.

But as for the "waiting until the season is over to make this happen", sure, they could've waited, but by that time Werth would be a free agent and the Phillies will have closed their window on keeping him. Getting Howard settled now means that they know what money they've committed to and they have a whole season to try to work out a deal with Werth that will keep him off the market, because if he hits the FA market there will be other teams (Yanks, Sox, Cubs) who will probably be able to spend more than the Phillies. Keeping Werth is unlikely now, but it would be impossible to keep him if you waited until the end of the year.

But as for paying for "old" players - come on, even at the end of the contracts these guys are 35 years old. So only at the very end of the deals do they start to even become old, and plenty of guys, especially power guys, are good into their late 30's. For the bulk of these contracts (2-4 years) the Phils have guys in the prime of their careers. It's not like they're signing bums here. Who knows, these guys probably have another 3-4 pennants in them. That's worth paying for.

Utley is more valuable only from the standpoint that power-hitting 2nd basemen are a rarity. And I agree with your assessment of "old". I think Howard will be fine, even at the end of the contract.

[UNHWildCats]

No way the Phillies keep Werth unless they start spending like the Yankees. The fact is that Chase Utley is even older than Howard (playing a more defensively demanding position) Werth and Rollins are both on the wrong side of 30 as well. Howard may always have a power stroke, but he won't be able to sustain bat speed to keep up with big league fast balls and he will have a hard time making sufficient contact (see Ortiz, David) when his body starts to go on him he'll be such a defensive liability that the Phillies will end up eating some of his salary and trading him to an AL team.

The Phillies are about $70M behind the Yankees right now in annual spending - hard to imagine that Werth is going to command close to $70M per year more than he's getting now. Of course the Phils will need to go above $140M to keep Werth, but 81 sell outs this year could help in that regard.

As for Utley, he's 31 this season. It's not as if that's terribly old. The Phils have this core together, in decent shape and age, for another 3-4 years. No one is saying they have more than that. I think Rollins is a guy that will sink sooner than others, but Werth will just turn 31 in late May and he's only played something like 5 MLB seasons so it's not like he's got tons of mileage on him. And Howard's already started to adress the body and health issues. Like I said, he looks downright skinny out there. Considering that Ortiz never slimmed down and had the ravages of steroids to his body, it's not exactly a fair comparison to Howard, especially since Howard's always been much more about power than Ortiz ever was.

the higher the payroll gets the more complicated it gets. Once you get to a the point of the luxury tax then a contract is esentially double what it actually is. For instance say the Phills are right at the lux tax threashold and then want to re-sign Werth for $11 million... in reality it ends up being $22 million because of the tax. This was a problem for Boston as they didnt want to go over that mark this offseason unless it was for an elite player (example they would have gladly gone over it to get Adrian Gonzalez) So they had to be creative and in the end gave Adrian Beltre a 9 million deal that alone would have triggered the cap tax on part of the salary so they added a $5 million player option which is unlikely to be exercised to average out the salary to 7 million which kept them under the tax threshold.

[GannonFan]

Well, to put that into perspective, Mauer's never hit more than 28 HR's in a season, has never driven in 96 RBI's in a season, and has already logged 5 years at the catcher position, something certainly more taxing than the 1B position that Howard is manning. And again, it's not like Howard hasn't been taking better care of his body - he's in better shape today than he's ever been over the past few years - this isn't the soft, overweight guy who was killing his knees 3 years ago.

And yes, Werth may certainly go, but at some point you can't keep everyone because, as you say, the Phils aren't the Yankees. However, some cost certainty for Howard helps tie down the math for Werth and Howard basically playing for no pay raise through 2012 is an interesting aspect of this deal. Without seeing the contract before now, I never would've thought that the Phils can keep both Werth and Howard - now, with the money on the table, it's not crazy to see that they could keep them both with a smaller than expected uptick in total team salary.

This is great for Howard and the Phillies, but why do people have to slam Mauer, a guy with 3 batting titles and an MVP. It's apples and oranges, Mauer is more of a George Brett type hitter, Howard is more of a power hitter.

I wasn't slamming Mauer - just noting, as you have done, that he's a different player at a different position who brings different things to the team. They're both great players, but the market in baseball does structure itself a little differently for players like these two.

[GannonFan]

The Phillies are about $70M behind the Yankees right now in annual spending - hard to imagine that Werth is going to command close to $70M per year more than he's getting now. Of course the Phils will need to go above $140M to keep Werth, but 81 sell outs this year could help in that regard.

As for Utley, he's 31 this season. It's not as if that's terribly old. The Phils have this core together, in decent shape and age, for another 3-4 years. No one is saying they have more than that. I think Rollins is a guy that will sink sooner than others, but Werth will just turn 31 in late May and he's only played something like 5 MLB seasons so it's not like he's got tons of mileage on him. And Howard's already started to adress the body and health issues. Like I said, he looks downright skinny out there. Considering that Ortiz never slimmed down and had the ravages of steroids to his body, it's not exactly a fair comparison to Howard, especially since Howard's always been much more about power than Ortiz ever was.

the higher the payroll gets the more complicated it gets. Once you get to a the point of the luxury tax then a contract is esentially double what it actually is. For instance say the Phills are right at the lux tax threashold and then want to re-sign Werth for $11 million... in reality it ends up being $22 million because of the tax. This was a problem for Boston as they didnt want to go over that mark this offseason unless it was for an elite player (example they would have gladly gone over it to get Adrian Gonzalez) So they had to be creative and in the end gave Adrian Beltre a 9 million deal that alone would have triggered the cap tax on part of the salary so they added a $5 million player option which is unlikely to be exercised to average out the salary to 7 million which kept them under the tax threshold.

Isn't the luxury tax well above where the Phillies are now? I thought the tax started at something like $170M this year - the Phils are currently something like $32M under that right now, even with the Howard extension. The Phils aren't keeping payroll down to avoid the luxury tax, they're just keeping it down because they don't bring in anywhere close to the revenue that a Yankees do (and no one else comes close). Eventually, the Phils only have so much money to go around.

[OSBF]

Ryan Howard isn't the best player on his own team.. Why make him the second highest paid in the sport? It doesn't make any sense at all. They couldn't have waited until after the season to make this happen?

and is "only" the 4th best first sacker in the NL alone

[GannonFan]

Ryan Howard isn't the best player on his own team.. Why make him the second highest paid in the sport? It doesn't make any sense at all. They couldn't have waited until after the season to make this happen?

and is "only" the 4th best first sacker in the NL alone

Other than Pujols who's really better than him? Him and Fielder are pretty identical, and I'd take Howard over Gonzo.

[OSBF]

and is "only" the 4th best first sacker in the NL alone

Other than Pujols who's really better than him? Him and Fielder are pretty identical, and I'd take Howard over Gonzo.

I'd take Pujols over everybody, then Adrian, then Fielder, then Howard.