Korean War 2

[slycat]

Nothing will come of this. Just another pissing contest.

[green&gold75]

While in the reserves, I was attached to a construction batallion union out of Chinhae (just West of Busan)...the "battle plan" if the bubble went up was to have our unit outfitted, trained up, on a plane and in-country in 14-days. Unfortunately, NoKor's battle plan is to take the entire penninsula in SEVEN days. I'm guessing that the 38,000 US troops stationed in Korea wouldn't be much of a match for the NoKor army, regardless of it's training and equipment deficiencies and I put VERY little stock in the SoKor Navy or Army regular forces.

Assuming the worst, the casualties those 38,000 troops would take constitute our guarantee to S Korea of early full involvement. Where we come up with adequate conventional forces to do the job is beyond me, though.

[Skjellyfetti]

Nothing will come of this. Just another pissing contest.

[bluehenbillk]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_ ... ship_sinks" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You guys may be right about the pissing contest, I don't think either side has the actual balls to doing anything significant. Posture, posture, posture, that's all Kim ever does.

[AZGrizFan]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_ ... ship_sinks

You guys may be right about the pissing contest, I don't think either side has the actual balls to doing anything significant. Posture, posture, posture, that's all Kim ever does.

I would say sinking a SoKor destroyer showed some balls. That's a tad bit more than just "posturing"....it's an outright act of WAR.

[YoUDeeMan]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_ ... ship_sinks

You guys may be right about the pissing contest, I don't think either side has the actual balls to doing anything significant. Posture, posture, posture, that's all Kim ever does.

I would say sinking a SoKor destroyer showed some balls. That's a tad bit more than just "posturing"....it's an outright act of WAR.

Gotta' agree with AZ...sending someone's ship to the bottom is a little brazen. Heck, we went ballistic over the Gulf of Tonkin incident...

[GannonFan]

I would say sinking a SoKor destroyer showed some balls. That's a tad bit more than just "posturing"....it's an outright act of WAR.

Gotta' agree with AZ...sending someone's ship to the bottom is a little brazen. Heck, we went ballistic over the Gulf of Tonkin incident...

Nah, that was just the equivalent of a schoolboy throwing a spitball at someone. As crazy as North Korea is, there's no way that they truly believe they could have all out war with South Korea and still exist as a nation. Sure, they could go down swinging and they could absolutely annihilate South Korea and kill tens of thousands of US soldiers, but they would also be wiped off the face of the Earth as a result. Where's the upside for them in that? When all is said and done, it's just posturing - they don't benefit at all if this goes to war.

[AZGrizFan]

Gotta' agree with AZ...sending someone's ship to the bottom is a little brazen. Heck, we went ballistic over the Gulf of Tonkin incident...

Nah, that was just the equivalent of a schoolboy throwing a spitball at someone. As crazy as North Korea is, there's no way that they truly believe they could have all out war with South Korea and still exist as a nation. Sure, they could go down swinging and they could absolutely annihilate South Korea and kill tens of thousands of US soldiers, but they would also be wiped off the face of the Earth as a result. Where's the upside for them in that? When all is said and done, it's just posturing - they don't benefit at all if this goes to war.

Me thinks you give the NoKor leadership WAAAAAAAAYYYY too much credit here....

[GannonFan]

Nah, that was just the equivalent of a schoolboy throwing a spitball at someone. As crazy as North Korea is, there's no way that they truly believe they could have all out war with South Korea and still exist as a nation. Sure, they could go down swinging and they could absolutely annihilate South Korea and kill tens of thousands of US soldiers, but they would also be wiped off the face of the Earth as a result. Where's the upside for them in that? When all is said and done, it's just posturing - they don't benefit at all if this goes to war.

Me thinks you give the NoKor leadership WAAAAAAAAYYYY too much credit here....

Oh, I think they're whackos, I just don't see why now, all of a sudden, they've become suicidal whackos.

[∞∞∞]

Me thinks you give the NoKor leadership WAAAAAAAAYYYY too much credit here....

Oh, I think they're whackos, I just don't see why now, all of a sudden, they've become suicidal whackos.

Final huzzah! by their crazy, but dear leader during what seems to be his last year(s) on Earth? Ya know...go out with a bang.

edit: huzzah was probably the wrong word. More like a final Fuck You.

[93henfan]

The North Koreans kick the South's butt every year during Ulchi Focus Lens. In 1989 I was the commander of all North Korean artillery. You can't imagine the damage I did. I even got a phone call from the US 2nd Division commander who chewed my ass out for destroying his division headquarters.

The South Korean navy was sunk in the first 12 hours of the exercise. I personally witnessed the chairman of the South Korean joint chiefs of staff fire about a half dozen admirals for that debacle.

Yep. I was involved in the sim portion for MARFORPAC at El Toro each year in the late 90s. The op plan was classified, but in layman's terms it wasn't a pretty sim.

[houndawg]

While in the reserves, I was attached to a construction batallion union out of Chinhae (just West of Busan)...the "battle plan" if the bubble went up was to have our unit outfitted, trained up, on a plane and in-country in 14-days. Unfortunately, NoKor's battle plan is to take the entire penninsula in SEVEN days. I'm guessing that the 38,000 US troops stationed in Korea wouldn't be much of a match for the NoKor army, regardless of it's training and equipment deficiencies and I put VERY little stock in the SoKor Navy or Army regular forces.

Why?

[Seawolf97]

While in the reserves, I was attached to a construction batallion union out of Chinhae (just West of Busan)...the "battle plan" if the bubble went up was to have our unit outfitted, trained up, on a plane and in-country in 14-days. Unfortunately, NoKor's battle plan is to take the entire penninsula in SEVEN days. I'm guessing that the 38,000 US troops stationed in Korea wouldn't be much of a match for the NoKor army, regardless of it's training and equipment deficiencies and I put VERY little stock in the SoKor Navy or Army regular forces.

Why?

Key word here is stock. An all out shooting war would probably collapse most Asian economies and bring us and China down with it. Sinking a warship on the high seas during peace time is an act of war-but total economic chaos would be a disaster. Something China and the US could ill afford.

[houndawg]

Why?

Key word here is stock. An all out shooting war would probably collapse most Asian economies and bring us and China down with it. Sinking a warship on the high seas during peace time is an act of war-but total economic chaos would be a disaster. Something China and the US could ill afford.

Not what I meant - a friend of mine was an MP on the border way back when not long after a border incident and worked with the ROK troops quite a bit. He thought they were good fighting men. I was just curious as to why Z feels different.

I'm guessing that an NK sub won't return from it's mission due to structural failure in the near future.

[Seawolf97]

Key word here is stock. An all out shooting war would probably collapse most Asian economies and bring us and China down with it. Sinking a warship on the high seas during peace time is an act of war-but total economic chaos would be a disaster. Something China and the US could ill afford.

Not what I meant - a friend of mine was an MP on the border way back when not long after a border incident and worked with the ROK troops quite a bit. He thought they were good fighting men. I was just curious as to why Z feels different.

I'm guessing that an NK sub won't return from it's mission due to structural failure in the near future.

I understand what you meant-but money will talk in this one. Crash the SK StockMarket, panic the Asian markets the cascade begins. It is a tragedy because probably 50 years ago war drums would be rumbling by now. You are right-I suspect a NK sub will disappear sometime in the future and thats ok . But all out conventional war wont happen this time.

[houndawg]

Not what I meant - a friend of mine was an MP on the border way back when not long after a border incident and worked with the ROK troops quite a bit. He thought they were good fighting men. I was just curious as to why Z feels different.

I'm guessing that an NK sub won't return from it's mission due to structural failure in the near future.

I understand what you meant-but money will talk in this one. Crash the SK StockMarket, panic the Asian markets the cascade begins. It is a tragedy because probably 50 years ago war drums would be rumbling by now. You are right-I suspect a NK sub will disappear sometime in the future and thats ok . But all out conventional war wont happen this time.

Well, I hope you're right, but I don't see how an SK stock market crash hurts NK - not a lot for them to lose, their population is already living on tree roots. As much influence as China is supposed to have with NK, I think Kim Jong Il's fear is that if he invades, his army will not come back from SK due to mass desertions.

[green&gold75]

I understand what you meant-but money will talk in this one. Crash the SK StockMarket, panic the Asian markets the cascade begins. It is a tragedy because probably 50 years ago war drums would be rumbling by now. You are right-I suspect a NK sub will disappear sometime in the future and thats ok . But all out conventional war wont happen this time.

Well, I hope you're right, but I don't see how an SK stock market crash hurts NK - not a lot for them to lose, their population is already living on tree roots. As much influence as China is supposed to have with NK, I think Kim Jong Il's fear is that if he invades, his army will not come back from SK due to mass desertions.

Interesting scenario.
BTW---I also thought the ROK army was highly regarded.

[CitadelGrad]

Well, I hope you're right, but I don't see how an SK stock market crash hurts NK - not a lot for them to lose, their population is already living on tree roots. As much influence as China is supposed to have with NK, I think Kim Jong Il's fear is that if he invades, his army will not come back from SK due to mass desertions.

Interesting scenario.
BTW---I also thought the ROK army was highly regarded.

During my year in Korea, I spent about half my time with ROKA artillery units, training and evaluating their special weapons operations (nukes). They're pretty decent soldiers but in a precarious position. North Korea can pound Seoul with rockets and artillery without even crossing the border. Seoul (where about 40% of the SK population lives) is only a short distance down Highway 1 from the bulk of the NK army. If the NK invaded, I'm not sure ground and air forces would be able to react quickly enough to keep the North Koreans out of Seoul.

[houndawg]

Well, I hope you're right, but I don't see how an SK stock market crash hurts NK - not a lot for them to lose, their population is already living on tree roots. As much influence as China is supposed to have with NK, I think Kim Jong Il's fear is that if he invades, his army will not come back from SK due to mass desertions.

Interesting scenario.
BTW---I also thought the ROK army was highly regarded.

So many families divided by the border. NK needs the border to remain where it is to keep their people in, not to keep the SKs out. Might be like the first Gulf War where as soon as the troops are out of sight of the officers they surrender. They'd probably eat better as POWs.

[YoUDeeMan]

Gotta' agree with AZ...sending someone's ship to the bottom is a little brazen. Heck, we went ballistic over the Gulf of Tonkin incident...

Nah, that was just the equivalent of a schoolboy throwing a spitball at someone. As crazy as North Korea is, there's no way that they truly believe they could have all out war with South Korea and still exist as a nation. Sure, they could go down swinging and they could absolutely annihilate South Korea and kill tens of thousands of US soldiers, but they would also be wiped off the face of the Earth as a result. Where's the upside for them in that? When all is said and done, it's just posturing - they don't benefit at all if this goes to war.

NYT has an article about Dim Kim making noise to ensure his son takes his position. Crediting Dim Kim II with planning the sub attack will go down well for getting him support from the military. In the meantime, they deny publicly that a ship was sunk.

And we thought our politicians and business people were good at spinning things.

[T-Dog]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_ ... ship_sinks

You guys may be right about the pissing contest, I don't think either side has the actual balls to doing anything significant. Posture, posture, posture, that's all Kim ever does.

I would say sinking a SoKor destroyer showed some balls. That's a tad bit more than just "posturing"....it's an outright act of WAR.

Technically there still at war. There was never a treaty signed, just an armistice saying "we won't cross this line if you don't". There have been tons of incidents over the years of NoKorea soldiers crossing over in disguise and building tunnels.

They will try something massive one day. If they do so, Seoul is fucked, but the North will be equally fucked in the long run. China is shrewd enough not to jump to a conclusion so we don't have to worry about their armies marching in.