#4 Montana vs #1 James Madison

[godukes]

I am not trying to be bias, but I think JMU is going to win this game. JMU hasn't lost in about 4 months, haven't lost to a team in the toughest conference, and didn't lose to Villanova in the playoffs when they were trying to get redemption. I just don't think Montana is the answer to defeating the Dukes for the first time in about 4 months. Personally, I think Villanova is better than Montana.

We have narrowed down your problem to one of two possible issues: You either 1) are thinking too much or 2) not thinking enough.

Stand by to have your "thinking" revised.

haha. Well you know what? There is going to be a lot less Montana fans on this site, this time next week.

[grizzaholic]

We have narrowed down your problem to one of two possible issues: You either 1) are thinking too much or 2) not thinking enough.

Stand by to have your "thinking" revised.

haha. Well you know what? There is going to be a lot less Montana fans on this site, this time next week.

I will take that bet and you will lose.

[godukes]

Oh yea I forgot. The Dukes have only lost 1 time in the past 4 years at home.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Nope, but I am going to be getting off work early to have a few beers at a local brewery before I watch it. After following AZGrizFan around these past few days I am very confident that the Griz will win this game. I do think it will be an ugly game all around. For some odd reason I think neither team will play it's best ball. Don't know why, just what I have been thinking so far today. I am sure it will change by tomorrow.

I am not trying to be bias, but I think JMU is going to win this game. JMU hasn't lost in about 4 months, haven't lost to a team in the toughest conference, and didn't lose to Villanova in the playoffs when they were trying to get redemption. I just don't think Montana is the answer to defeating the Dukes for the first time in about 4 months. Personally, I think Villanova is better than Montana.

That could be true but then again it's due to what you've seen as our perspective is due to what we've seen. I would give Weber the nod over over Nova and play a possible game winner against JMU. It's like when you wre a kid and the toughest guy on your block was the toughest guy you'd ever seen...until a guy from another block kecked his ass and after you came to grips with it that guy was the toughest guy you ever met. We're gonna find out soon enough but I think overcoming the home field with JMU is gonna be a tough row to hoe. I do think our teams match up pretty good.

[grizzaholic]

Oh yea I forgot. The Dukes have only lost 1 time in the past 4 years at home.

I will eat my crow with pride if UNI and the Griz do not handle thier business, but it will be oh so wonderful to see the CAA posters make every excuse in the book for them not getting one team to the Championship game after getting in, what, 5 teams? or was it 4 this year?

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Oh yea I forgot. The Dukes have only lost 1 time in the past 4 years at home.

Truly an impressive feat and the reason that I think the home field thing is really against us in the one more than usual. Doesn't hurt that you have a fantastic team either.

[godukes]

I am not trying to be bias, but I think JMU is going to win this game. JMU hasn't lost in about 4 months, haven't lost to a team in the toughest conference, and didn't lose to Villanova in the playoffs when they were trying to get redemption. I just don't think Montana is the answer to defeating the Dukes for the first time in about 4 months. Personally, I think Villanova is better than Montana.

That could be true but then again it's due to what you've seen as our perspective is due to what we've seen. I would give Weber the nod over over Nova and play a possible game winner against JMU. It's like when you wre a kid and the toughest guy on your block was the toughest guy you'd ever seen...until a guy from another block kecked his ass and after you came to grips with it that guy was the toughest guy you ever met. We're gonna find out soon enough but I think overcoming the home field with JMU is gonna be a tough row to hoe. I do think our teams match up pretty good.

I agree. I have seen Weber St. play(game against Cal Poly) and Montana play(not sure what game). If Montana can have an extra guy in the secondary and one less guy in the run and they stop the run. Then, I think they have a good shot at winning. I just don't see how Montana can stop the run AND the pass.

[AZGrizFan]

We have narrowed down your problem to one of two possible issues: You either 1) are thinking too much or 2) not thinking enough.

Stand by to have your "thinking" revised.

haha. Well you know what? There is going to be a lot less Montana fans on this site, this time next week.

Says the guy who joined three weeks ago...

[AZGrizFan]

That could be true but then again it's due to what you've seen as our perspective is due to what we've seen. I would give Weber the nod over over Nova and play a possible game winner against JMU. It's like when you wre a kid and the toughest guy on your block was the toughest guy you'd ever seen...until a guy from another block kecked his ass and after you came to grips with it that guy was the toughest guy you ever met. We're gonna find out soon enough but I think overcoming the home field with JMU is gonna be a tough row to hoe. I do think our teams match up pretty good.

I agree. I have seen Weber St. play(game against Cal Poly) and Montana play(not sure what game). If Montana can have an extra guy in the secondary and one less guy in the run and they stop the run. Then, I think they have a good shot at winning. I just don't see how Montana can stop the run AND the pass.

I guess it's a good thing they don't run AND pass on the same play, huh?

[Appaholic]

Montana 24
JMU 10

bank it......

[AZGrizFan]

Here's my predictions:

1) JMU will have 2-3 plays of +40 yards. Montana's tendency to give up a big play (but usually not for a TD) will haunt them here.
2) JMU will have at LEAST two drives stall in the red zone and have to settle for field goal attempts (Griz have a "bend but don't break" defense).
3) JMU will be held to less than 75% of it's average yards on the ground.
4) Montana will force at LEAST two turnovers
5) Montana will block a punt
6) Montana will win the TOP battle
7) Chase Reynolds will have more yards than either the JMU QB or RB.

Montana trails at the half, 13-7. They score twice in the 3rd qtr to make it 21-13, then they trade TD's in the 4th and the final is

GRIZ 27
JMU 21

[grizzaholic]

What would happen to the CAA posters if Montana beats JMU at JMU then goes on to beat Richmond for the championship game? What would they say then?

[godukes]

Montana 24
JMU 10

bank it......

Montana has a shot at winning this game, but there is no way that they will keep JMU to 10 points.

[grizzaholic]

Montana 24
JMU 10

bank it......

Montana has a shot at winning this game, but there is no way that they will keep JMU to 10 points.

You are one of the very few JMU posters that have said this. I also agree with holding JMU to 10 is unrealistic.

[godukes]

Montana has a shot at winning this game, but there is no way that they will keep JMU to 10 points.

You are one of the very few JMU posters that have said this. I also agree with holding JMU to 10 is unrealistic.

I still think JMU will win the game though, but lets be realistic about these score predictions.

[grizzaholic]

You are one of the very few JMU posters that have said this. I also agree with holding JMU to 10 is unrealistic.

I still think JMU will win the game though, but lets be realistic about these score predictions.

JMU will get thiers as well as will the Griz. But this is not going to be some shoot out type of game. It will be a lot of clock management. Both teams will be trying to keep the clock running as much as possible. A score in the twenties with the winner maybe cracking 30 should be expected.

[godukes]

I still think JMU will win the game though, but lets be realistic about these score predictions.

JMU will get thiers as well as will the Griz. But this is not going to be some shoot out type of game. It will be a lot of clock management. Both teams will be trying to keep the clock running as much as possible. A score in the twenties with the winner maybe cracking 30 should be expected.

I agree. JMU will score at least in the 20s and Montana probably as well.

[AZGrizFan]

JMU will get thiers as well as will the Griz. But this is not going to be some shoot out type of game. It will be a lot of clock management. Both teams will be trying to keep the clock running as much as possible. A score in the twenties with the winner maybe cracking 30 should be expected.

I agree. JMU will score at least in the 20s and Montana probably as well.

So, we agree then:


Griz - 27
JMU - 21

[godukes]

I agree. JMU will score at least in the 20s and Montana probably as well.

So, we agree then:


Griz - 27
JMU - 21

Not on the final score. I think Montana will have to score in the 30s to win the game.

[Mvemjsunpx]

I just said Reynold's is probably the best RB between the two teams, but JMU's running game as a whole is better.

Maybe so, but most of JMUs rushing yards come from the QB Landers, not the running backs, hence why I gave QBs to JMU and RBs to Montana.

I do consider blocked punts as part of the return game, but what I meant was JMU has a better return's guy in McGee than Montana does.

Really? You do know Marc Mariani is 4th. in the nation in punt return average, right (16.6 ypr)? McGee is a better kickoff returner, but JMU doesn't really have any depth there while Montana has Rob Schulte to tag team with Mariani. As I said, I think the returning ability is even, but the blocked punt edge gives Montana a narrow victory for the return teams.

[godukes]

I just said Reynold's is probably the best RB between the two teams, but JMU's running game as a whole is better.

Maybe so, but most of JMUs rushing yards come from the QB Landers, not the running backs, hence why I gave QBs to JMU and RBs to Montana.

I do consider blocked punts as part of the return game, but what I meant was JMU has a better return's guy in McGee than Montana does.

Really? You do know Marc Mariani is 4th. in the nation in punt return average, right (16.6 ypr)? McGee is a better kickoff returner, but JMU doesn't really have any depth there while Montana has Rob Schulte to tag team with Mariani. As I said, I think the returning ability is even, but the blocked punt edge gives Montana a narrow victory for the return teams.

Well one thing JMU doesn't have is a L after this game.

[Llamaguy]

This is really bias. I would definitely give JMU in favor of the QBs, RBs, Return Teams, defensive line, and then push for secondary. Montana may have the best RB in the game, but JMU's RBs as a whole is better. They use 2-3RBs in the game. I don't know why you gave Return teams to Montana. JMU has probably the best return guy in McGee. Secondary I said is a push because JMU has Haywood who is still up for Buchannon award. Montana's rushing game will be shut down. Villanova's running game averages 224yds a game and they only got 81yds last Saturday. Montana's QB will have to win the game for them.

You'd give RBs to JMU, seriously? Montana has more than just Reynolds, you know. In the backup war, Yancey has slightly better stats than Andrew Schmidt (mainly due to better receiving numbers), but Reynolds's stats are noticeably better than Holloman's. Factor in what Reynolds has done in recent games & the gap is even wider.

The return stats are about even, but Montana has 6 punt blocks to JMU's 3. Punt blocks are part of the punt return team, of course, & it makes the difference in this case. Both teams are way ahead of Richmond & UNI on the return game front, though.

UM's secondary certainly has better stats. UM's starters have more interceptions, more tackles for loss, and more pass breakups than JMU's starters despite starting one fewer DB. Montana also has a better passing efficiency defense despite fewer sacks.

You could argue D-Line, but I called it a push because Montana seems to have a little better depth there.

You make good points and are obviously a great stat man but this comparison has a bias! They didn't play the same schedule. Of course the DB's for Montana have better stats because they played weaker competion within a league without great QBs. Look at their stats against Weber and other teams with a decent QB rating and see how great their stats are.The CAA is a QB driven league, even at the lower end of the conference. Just look at the numbers. I have respected all your picks so far but for Montana, this is the first time they will have played a team where they have a weaker strength of schedule. When the formula doesn't work this week, this will be why!

[Llamaguy]

Oh yea I forgot. The Dukes have only lost 1 time in the past 4 years at home.

I will eat my crow with pride if UNI and the Griz do not handle thier business, but it will be oh so wonderful to see the CAA posters make every excuse in the book for them not getting one team to the Championship game after getting in, what, 5 teams? or was it 4 this year?

Well after Richmond & JMU take care of business this weekend, the CAA will be 8-3 as a league in the playoffs going into the championship game. The Big Sky will be 3-2 for the 2008 playoffs. Don't give me the head-head knockout BS since Villanova had to play JMU. Fact is the Big Sky had only 2 teams with atleast 8 wins so that conference is down. Now if they used Montana's formula of: play no FBS teams and play 75% of non-conf. games at home the Big Sky may have gotten more teams in this year. CAA = 5 of 16 in the playoffs, 4 of 8 in the quarters, 2 of 4 in the semis. The rest is to be decided but if Montana loses by more than 2 TDs don't come on here saying our record was great because the fact is this, Montana is 1-8 on-the-road in the playoffs. Enough said!

[AZGrizFan]

I will eat my crow with pride if UNI and the Griz do not handle thier business, but it will be oh so wonderful to see the CAA posters make every excuse in the book for them not getting one team to the Championship game after getting in, what, 5 teams? or was it 4 this year?

Well after Richmond & JMU take care of business this weekend, the CAA will be 8-3 as a league in the playoffs going into the championship game. The Big Sky will be 3-2 for the 2008 playoffs. Don't give me the head-head knockout BS since Villanova had to play JMU. Fact is the Big Sky had only 2 teams with atleast 8 wins so that conference is down. Now if they used Montana's formula of: play no FBS teams and play 75% of non-conf. games at home the Big Sky may have gotten more teams in this year. CAA = 5 of 16 in the playoffs, 4 of 8 in the quarters, 2 of 4 in the semis. The rest is to be decided but if Montana loses by more than 2 TDs don't come on here saying our record was great because the fact is this, Montana is 1-8 on-the-road in the playoffs. Enough said!

And there'll be no shame in being 1-9 if they lose to the #1 team in all the land, right?

And really, bragging about the multitude of teams that have 8 conference wins when you NEVER have to play everybody in your conferences is really laughable. You had an 8-4 Maine team make the tournament and they NEVER won a "difficult" game all year. They had ZERO quality wins, but they had 8 cupcakes on their schedule. Let's just agree to not go there.

[Llamaguy]

Well after Richmond & JMU take care of business this weekend, the CAA will be 8-3 as a league in the playoffs going into the championship game. The Big Sky will be 3-2 for the 2008 playoffs. Don't give me the head-head knockout BS since Villanova had to play JMU. Fact is the Big Sky had only 2 teams with atleast 8 wins so that conference is down. Now if they used Montana's formula of: play no FBS teams and play 75% of non-conf. games at home the Big Sky may have gotten more teams in this year. CAA = 5 of 16 in the playoffs, 4 of 8 in the quarters, 2 of 4 in the semis. The rest is to be decided but if Montana loses by more than 2 TDs don't come on here saying our record was great because the fact is this, Montana is 1-8 on-the-road in the playoffs. Enough said!

And there'll be no shame in being 1-9 if they lose to the #1 team in all the land, right?

And really, bragging about the multitude of teams that have 8 conference wins when you NEVER have to play everybody in your conferences is really laughable. You had an 8-4 Maine team make the tournament and they NEVER won a "difficult" game all year. They had ZERO quality wins, but they had 8 cupcakes on their schedule. Let's just agree to not go there.

OK take them out of the equation! CAA= 4 of 8 in quarters, 2 of 4 in the semis. Your Point? Thats like bragging that your 3rd place team is better than the CAA's 6th but neither made the playoffs so who gives a *&*%. I'm sure beating one of the other half of the CAA's lower teams would have been much better than a win against a #1 ranked App. St. win. Please?