Lehigh @ NDSU

[catbooster]

wow, good stuff

now

lets look at it the right way by comparing how many rushing yards Lehigh's defense allowed compared to the opponents average yards per game

...

UNH (57th-best): 34-117
Lehigh allowed 36 less yards than the average of 153 yards/game

...

We only had one common opponent with you...

MSU held UNH to 48 rushing yards.

I guess we should be the favorite in the playoffs.

[grizzaholic]

My 300 pound diabetic Auntie Sarah would be the 2nd best receiver in the FCS if she lined up on the opposite side of the formation from Spadola...

So, I take it that you are admitting that you know absolutely nothing about Lehigh WR Drwal - considered almost equal to Spadola in many circles.

Knitting, sewing, or under water basket weaving?

[The_Fan]

I am sorry, but when you say "UD running all over Towson", what part do you mean?


Delaware v. Towson

Yards Rushing
201 - Delaware
229 - Towson

Yards Passing
56 - Delaware
159 - Towson

Total Offense
257 - Delaware
388 - Towson

Hey, do me a favor, since you're just googling stats for a game you didn't watch or really know anything about, why don't you list the return yardage as well. I guess if we weren't running the ball back so much we could've gotten some more "total offense" - darn Towson tricking us into long returns and keeping our stats down just so that some internet dude who didn't watch the game could try to use it against us.

sure, no problem

Delaware v. Towson

Punt Return Yardage
0 - Delaware
8 - Towson

kickoff Return Yardage
240 - Delaware
186 - Towson

Total Offense + Punt Returns + Kickoff Returns
497 - Delaware
582 - Towson

[The Kicker]

How bad is Special Teams for Lehigh?

Place Kicker Tim Drivers is 11-17 on FG and 37-41 on Extra Points
His long on the season is 36 Yards. Is 7-10 (30-39) and 0-2 (40-49) One FG was blocked not sure from how far out.
Has missed from 23,32,37,39,40,46
Has made only 4 over 30! 32,34,35,36
In another way to put it Lehigh will have to be inside the 14 yard line to even try a FG since Drivers is 4-9 anything over 30 yards.

Punter Tim Drivers 44-1615-36.7
Has 6 50+ punts and also had one blocked.

On kickoffs they give up 21.2 yards 70-1483
NDSU has 33 returns for 809 yards a 24.5 avg
On punts they give up 10.9 yards 15-163
NDSU has 26 returns for 300 yards a 11.5 avg

NDSU looks to have the clear edge
Kicker Ryan Jastram is 14-16 on FG with a long of 53 and 46-50 on Extra Point

Punter Matt Voigtlander 48-1951-40.6

On Kickoffs NDSU have 62-1291 a 20.8 avg
Lehigh has 51 returns for 1038 a 20.4 avg
On punts NDSU has 15 for 90 yards a 6.0 avg
Lehigh has 24 punt returns for 153 yards a 6.4 avg


Lehigh will have to get TD's when they are in the Redzone since the kicking game is weak. NDSU has given up 18 TD's in 35 redzone attempts so just over 50%.

Based on stats NDSU should have a short field to work with to get points on the board and Lehigh will have to drive deep to get points. Note that these numbers don't show long TD's. Lehigh has 36 of it's 51 touchdowns in the redzone. 36 touchdowns in 63 redzone trips.

[Lehigh1985]

An astute reply regarding Lehigh special teams... admittedly not very good. That's been sort of a trend even back to the days I played there. Not sure why but I hope it doesn't come into play too much because it could be a game breaker. I still don't think NDSU can score enough points with a control ground game. One or two misses and they're toast. Lum is going to get his 40 points or thereabouts. Just can't stop it. Way too many quick strike weapons that don't depend on a control game. If you don't equal it you're going to be in trouble. They get up by two or three scores and you try a possession game you're going to come up short.

[rkwittem]

The problem with this line of thinking is that it takes us right back to square one. Did Lehigh dominate these teams' rushing offenses because they are excellent or because these teams were pedestrian? I'm tempted to say a little of both, based primarily on the Towson effort. Don't forget they gave up 38 points anyway....and points are all that matters in the end.

good one

you begin by attempting to prove that Lehigh's rush defense is not all that good

you get utterly destroyed in that argument with FACTS that show that Lehigh allowed LESS rushing yards, in some cases significantly less, than the average rushing yardage of EVERY opponent that they have faced this year.

then

you change it by claiming that points are all that matter anyway

ok, here are some points for you:

Lehigh is 11-1, having lost only to a ranked playoff team in OT on a truly bad ref call

Don't put words in my mouth. I never explicitly said I was trying to prove one way or the other if Lehigh's rush defense was overrated. I was simply laying out the facts for interpretation. I am simply of the opinion that Lehigh's particular schedule wasn't all that impressive. Yes, they are competent and as such should be capable of stifling crappy teams. It's not rocket science.

[FargoBison]

Now Lehigh fans are guaranteeing 40 points...that is bold.

We've given up 40 points twice under Bohl and both were during our 3-8 season of misery. We've give up 30 or more in just 12 games. At home those numbers dip to 40 or more once and over 30 four times.

[The Kicker]

An astute reply regarding Lehigh special teams... admittedly not very good. That's been sort of a trend even back to the days I played there. Not sure why but I hope it doesn't come into play too much because it could be a game breaker. I still don't think NDSU can score enough points with a control ground game. One or two misses and they're toast. Lum is going to get his 40 points or thereabouts. Just can't stop it. Way too many quick strike weapons that don't depend on a control game. If you don't equal it you're going to be in trouble. They get up by two or three scores and you try a possession game you're going to come up short.

Just don't see these 40 points you think Lehigh will be spotted. Lehigh gets in the Redzone on average about 5 times per game and score TD's 50% and get points 70%. Lets say best case is 3 TD and a FG for 24 points. Again 36 of the 51 total Lehigh TD's have come in the Redzone so that is around 70%. Again best case lets say they get 2 outside of the Redzone that is 2 of the 5 TD's or 40%. That's 38 points and giving you upside on scoring TD's in Redzone getting points in Redzone and getting TD's outside of Redzone vs a Team that Ranks very high on not giving up points.

To be real lets say Lehigh gets 4 Redzone trips and get 2 TD's and a FG for 17 points and 1 TD outside of the Redzone for a total of 24. I think that will be more ballpark for the game than around 40 like your thinking.

[The_Fan]

good one

you begin by attempting to prove that Lehigh's rush defense is not all that good

you get utterly destroyed in that argument with FACTS that show that Lehigh allowed LESS rushing yards, in some cases significantly less, than the average rushing yardage of EVERY opponent that they have faced this year.

then

you change it by claiming that points are all that matter anyway

ok, here are some points for you:

Lehigh is 11-1, having lost only to a ranked playoff team in OT on a truly bad ref call

Don't put words in my mouth. I never explicitly said I was trying to prove one way or the other if Lehigh's rush defense was overrated. I was simply laying out the facts for interpretation. I am simply of the opinion that Lehigh's particular schedule wasn't all that impressive. Yes, they are competent and as such should be capable of stifling crappy teams. It's not rocket science.

oh, ok, so it wasn't you that posted the following?


"What does all this mean? Well, on average, Lehigh faced a team that was the 61st-best rushing offense. Given all the ripping that NDSU's 'mediocre' (45th) pass defense has taken, why no criticism for Lehigh's overrated run defense? Your schedule didn't have many Shakir Bells or Jamaine Cooks on it, now did it?

Despite NDSU's rushing offense being only 50th-best in the country statistically, I feel that they have a strong advantage here as the Lehigh defensive linemen are not all that big and are a likely target of the NDSU offensive gameplan...I hope they're deep. I expect a few long drives from NDSU, probably around 3-4."

[Rob Iola]

So, I take it that you are admitting that you know absolutely nothing about Lehigh WR Drwal - considered almost equal to Spadola in many circles.

Knitting, sewing, or under water basket weaving?

Crop.

And FAN - Spadola has no equal...

[TwinTownBisonFan]

An astute reply regarding Lehigh special teams... admittedly not very good. That's been sort of a trend even back to the days I played there. Not sure why but I hope it doesn't come into play too much because it could be a game breaker. I still don't think NDSU can score enough points with a control ground game. One or two misses and they're toast. Lum is going to get his 40 points or thereabouts. Just can't stop it. Way too many quick strike weapons that don't depend on a control game. If you don't equal it you're going to be in trouble. They get up by two or three scores and you try a possession game you're going to come up short.

Just don't see these 40 points you think Lehigh will be spotted. Lehigh gets in the Redzone on average about 5 times per game and score TD's 50% and get points 70%. Lets say best case is 3 TD and a FG for 24 points. Again 36 of the 51 total Lehigh TD's have come in the Redzone so that is around 70%. Again best case lets say they get 2 outside of the Redzone that is 2 of the 5 TD's or 40%. That's 38 points and giving you upside on scoring TD's in Redzone getting points in Redzone and getting TD's outside of Redzone vs a Team that Ranks very high on not giving up points.

To be real lets say Lehigh gets 4 Redzone trips and get 2 TD's and a FG for 17 points and 1 TD outside of the Redzone for a total of 24. I think that will be more ballpark for the game than around 40 like your thinking.

You are dropping some serious logic bombs...

I agree... though I think they have a chance to hit on two bombs and get 1 redzone td...

your special teams comment i think could be prescient...

[Gil Dobie]

I always expect NDSU to start out slow and gain momentum as the game progresses. This game looks pretty even with a big play by the defense or special teams winning it for the Bison.

[Mvemjsunpx]

This is the closest matchup of the 4 quarterfinal games, IMO, but—just like Georgia Southern—the Bison have a big advantage on special teams and that should win the game for them.

Fun side note: both teams have a player on their roster with the last name "Littlejohn."

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- Lehigh
      
      Running Backs - North Dakota St.
      
      Receivers/TEs - Lehigh
      
      Offensive Line - (push)
      
      
      Defensive Line - North Dakota St.
      
      Linebackers --- Lehigh
      
      Secondary ---- North Dakota St.
      
      
      Kicking ------ North Dakota St.
      
      Punting ------ North Dakota St.
      
      Return Teams - North Dakota St.
      
      Kickoffs ------ North Dakota St.
      
      
      
      
      
      • Lehigh 23-30 North Dakota St.

[rkwittem]

Don't put words in my mouth. I never explicitly said I was trying to prove one way or the other if Lehigh's rush defense was overrated. I was simply laying out the facts for interpretation. I am simply of the opinion that Lehigh's particular schedule wasn't all that impressive. Yes, they are competent and as such should be capable of stifling crappy teams. It's not rocket science.

oh, ok, so it wasn't you that posted the following?


"What does all this mean? Well, on average, Lehigh faced a team that was the 61st-best rushing offense. Given all the ripping that NDSU's 'mediocre' (45th) pass defense has taken, why no criticism for Lehigh's overrated run defense? Your schedule didn't have many Shakir Bells or Jamaine Cooks on it, now did it?

Despite NDSU's rushing offense being only 50th-best in the country statistically, I feel that they have a strong advantage here as the Lehigh defensive linemen are not all that big and are a likely target of the NDSU offensive gameplan...I hope they're deep. I expect a few long drives from NDSU, probably around 3-4."

Jeez they can be overrated and not suck. Rushing offense SOS is all I'm calling into question.

[lakesbison]

lehigh and their a hole WR wont score more than 20 you heard it here first

[Lehigh1985]

Just don't see these 40 points you think Lehigh will be spotted. Lehigh gets in the Redzone on average about 5 times per game and score TD's 50% and get points 70%. Lets say best case is 3 TD and a FG for 24 points. Again 36 of the 51 total Lehigh TD's have come in the Redzone so that is around 70%. Again best case lets say they get 2 outside of the Redzone that is 2 of the 5 TD's or 40%. That's 38 points and giving you upside on scoring TD's in Redzone getting points in Redzone and getting TD's outside of Redzone vs a Team that Ranks very high on not giving up points.

To be real lets say Lehigh gets 4 Redzone trips and get 2 TD's and a FG for 17 points and 1 TD outside of the Redzone for a total of 24. I think that will be more ballpark for the game than around 40 like your thinking.

I won't argue the logic all things being equal I might tend to even agree with you, but I think it's potentially being misapplied. Looking into it a little deeper into those stats... Lehigh has run around 25% more plays on offense than the average for MVC teams (almost 900 versus 720 ). In addition, Lehigh has also put up 130 yards per game more than the average for the MVC (480 versus 352). Interestingly, only one team in the MVC is even close at 458 per game (Illinois State is a distant second at 380 per game) and that's the team that beat NDSU at home scoring more points than any other team against them this season (27). Lastly, of the two MVC teams to put up any points on NDSU (21 each) were the two worst teams in the conference and whom with only four combined wins ironically, both depend more on the pass than the run albeit anemic in both areas. Bottom line is that I don't think NDSU has seen an offense anything like Lehigh this season and to compare performance against MVC as a guage is perhaps overly optimistic.

And as far as redzone stats I don't think it's complete, espcially accounting for only one score from either outside the redzone or possibly on special teams and/or defense. I don't think they really apply when you have that big play threat. Two long passes for TD's a defensive or ST score (maybe a safety! ) added to that 24 and 40+ is very realistic for a team that's done exactly that for the last 12 games not to mention averaging around 35 points a game currently.

I'm just saying that if Lum and Lehigh light it up just like what they currently average, I think NDSU will have to score 40+ or at least pretty darn close to it and I'm not so sure a controlled possession type running game is going to be enough in 60 minutes. Might need to score a lot faster and more often unless the NDSU defense can shut down Lehigh's pass offense entirely. It only takes one or two plays from Lum and it can happen REALLY fast... Going to be a heck of a game.

[FargoBison]

Lastly, of the two MVC teams to put up any points on NDSU (21 each) were the two worst teams in the conference and whom with only four combined wins ironically, both depend more on the pass than the run albeit anemic in both areas. Bottom line is that I don't think NDSU has seen an offense anything like Lehigh this season and to compare performance against MVC as a guage is perhaps overly optimistic.

WIU is a run first team...Both teams were losing by large margins in each game. You really have no idea what you are talking about...

[BisonBacker]

My 300 pound diabetic Auntie Sarah would be the 2nd best receiver in the FCS if she lined up on the opposite side of the formation from Spadola...

So, I take it that you are admitting that you know absolutely nothing about Lehigh WR Drwal - considered almost equal to Spadola in many circles.

That would be the circle jerks fanboi and his buddies get into

[FargoBison]

I do think Lehigh has a great team but some of their fans seem to have zero respect for NDSU's defense. I really like Mvemjsunpx's prediction and breakdown.

[Lehigh1985]

Lastly, of the two MVC teams to put up any points on NDSU (21 each) were the two worst teams in the conference and whom with only four combined wins ironically, both depend more on the pass than the run albeit anemic in both areas. Bottom line is that I don't think NDSU has seen an offense anything like Lehigh this season and to compare performance against MVC as a guage is perhaps overly optimistic.

WIU is a run first team...Both teams were losing by large margins in each game. You really have no idea what you are talking about...

I was merely indicating that both of those teams garner more average yardage per game through the air than on the ground, which is a fact.

[FargoBison]

WIU is a run first team...Both teams were losing by large margins in each game. You really have no idea what you are talking about...

I was merely indicating that both of those teams garner more average yardage per game through the air than on the ground, which is a fact.

Both teams only had more passing yards because they have no defense and for the most part got rolled by many teams. Talking about them is meaningless.

The only pure passing team in the MVFC is SDSU...they only passed because they couldn't run. Those are facts.

[FargoBison]

And Spadola has been suspended....

DomIzzoWDAY Dom Izzo
by tony_ambrose
BREAKING: #Lehigh WR Ryan Spadola has been SUSPENDED for #FCS Quarterfinal vs #NDSU

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lehigh1985]

I do think Lehigh has a great team but some of their fans seem to have zero respect for NDSU's defense. I really like Mvemjsunpx's prediction and breakdown.

I'm not saying I have no respect for their defense. I have the utmost respect for any defense that can hold opponents to less than 20 points a game. Matter of fact, I think NDSU is at somewhere around 16 points a game which is downright stingy. What I am saying is that I think NDSU may find itself in some unfamiliar territory against an offense unlike what they're used to seeing in the MVC and with some significant stats that far exceed (and by a lot) anyone they've faced yet with the exception of Youngstown State. So when I see someone say Lehigh won't score 20 I think it's more of over confidence in NDSU defense rather than lack of respect for that defense. Maybe the Youngstown State game was an off game but they got absolutely owned in their own house.

And I'll say the same thing I did about the Towson game. I think it's a great matchup for Lehigh given the high powered pass offense and what I think can now be deemed a legitimate top ten rush defense, against a power running team whose defense is giving up over 200 yards a game in pass offense to teams not generally given to the passing game. They're going to see a different animal on Saturday and they're going to really have to be on top of it defensively because it only takes one or two mistakes on defense before a lot of point can go up and I really don't think NDSU wants a shootout with Lehigh. Guess will find out in just over 48 hours!

[Rob Iola]

My 300 pound diabetic Auntie Sarah would be the 2nd best receiver in the FCS if she lined up on the opposite side of the formation from Spadola...

So, I take it that you are admitting that you know absolutely nothing about Lehigh WR Drwal - considered almost equal to Spadola in many circles.

Well we're about to find out how good Drwal is now aren't we?

Sucks about Spadola

[Lehigh1985]

So, I take it that you are admitting that you know absolutely nothing about Lehigh WR Drwal - considered almost equal to Spadola in many circles.

Well we're about to find out how good Drwal is now aren't we?

Sucks about Spadola

Yup. That hurts. Just having him on the field changes defensive schemes and give DCs nightmares. NDSU will have a real advantage without that threat. Look for Lum to go to his two tight ends quite a bit more with a look-see downfield to Drawl now and then. He can still burn you but without Spadola, Drawl isn't as much of a threat. Really a shame.