Seahawks08 wrote:So, as usual, Math League geeks cite to "advanced" defensive stats, but are incapable of defending them when pressed to do so.
Actually, I'm just lazy. Mostly, because its a moot point in this case. Jeter is getting into the HoF no matter what. I have watched him play almost as much as you have and I can at least compare him to Rollins, who I've also watched a lot. Quite frankly, he's no where close to Rollins defensively. Do the exercise the article provided with Jeter's 20 best and worst plays and compare them to other SS. You will most likely see what sabermatricians are talking about.
Let's be clear. I never said Jeter was a better defensive SS than Rollins. Rollins was probably one of the finest SS I've ever seen.
What I say is that sabermaticians have severely underrated Jeter's defense based on unproven and dubious mathematical extrapolations, based on mathematical calculations which are themselves extrapolations from hard numbers. I'd say he was, in his prime, an above average (to well above average) SS who was worthy, in certain seasons, of Gold Gloves.
In his prime, Jeter was an above average defender who had below average range to his glove side, above average range into the hole, an above average arm, excellent skill in handling balls he reached and -- most significantly -- excellent range outside the normal range of the SS's defensive responsibility. The last factor not only permitted the Yankees to make defensive adjustments which expanded outfielder's ability to play deeper than ordinary outfielders, but led to any number of extraordinary plays which other shortstops were unlikely to make -- and which, in contrast to the sabermatricians methods, demonstrably saved runs.
I tried to post four examples of Jeter's skills utilized to save runs (in clutch moments) for which these "advanced" defensive statistics provide him with no credit. I also cited a game I saw in Boston in September 2000 in which the entire game turned on Jeter's ability to make a play that Garciaparra could not.
Jeter also had the uncanny ability to make huge "clutch" defensive plays. Now sabermatricians discount that entirely, saying there is really no such thing as a "clutch" player. I enjoy that observation, because it really proves to me they are lost in a theoretical no man's land.
As I said earlier, I noticed that Jeter had a slow start to his glove side not long after he became the everyday SS in 1996. And really, to the extent the saber stats have relevance, that's all they prove. I didn't need a stat to see that, but if you want to sit there and count how many balls eluded Jeter up the middle, more power to you.
These so-called advanced defensive stats all start from assigning a player zones of defensive responsibility, and then observing how many balls go into play in those areas, the difficulty of the play (largely based on the speed/trajectory of the batted ball), and how many plays the defender makes in comparison to what is expected of him in comparison to other average players. They note the game situation at the time of a missed opportunity (i.e., how many outs were there). And I can buy into that, because it is a hard number.
Then, the sabermatricans generally say ok, now what percentage of the time does a runner who reaches first base with no outs score; with one out, with two out. Now this is an extrapolation, because a runner who reaches base when Mariano Rivera is pitching scores less frequently than a runner who reaches base against some other pitcher. I could explain this in more detail, but I trust you get my point. And that's just one factor. There are any number of factors that come into play which determine why a runner eventually scores.
So, in any event, they then take the hard number of 'missed plays" and multiply that against the extrapolation how many times on average a run scores (given the game situation), and arrive at a further extrapolation -- how many runs did this defender cost/save?
I think the big hole in these systems, with respect to infielders, is that they overstate the significance of range in fielding ground balls (admittedly an important skill) in run allowance/savings, when there are other important skills which dramatically affect that process (which I identified above).
So I say the ultimate outcome of these systems is an extrapolation of an extrapolation from a hard number -- and the further you get away from a hard number, the less reliable the figures become because you relying on levels of assumption.
Just for kicks, not long after that egghead Neyer wrote that famous article calling Jeter a bad defender (a pretty laughable assertion), I compared the entirety of the Yankees' defense runs savings/cost allowance analysis under the UZR system with the Yankees' actual total run allowance over a season. I discovered that the Yankees, in theory, allowed nearly 50 more runs than they actually allowed. This suggested to me that there are ways to save runs which measurement cannot be captured by these "advanced" defensive stats.
After careful consideration, I have tried to highlight some of those ways, represented by the videos I have chosen. I tried to pick plays which demonstrate defensive skills of Derek Jeter which go unaccounted for in these advanced math calculations. Yes, I watched the 20 best/20 worst plays and will concede the point that other SS are more artful at handling ground balls. Now watch my videos and you will see Jeter's exceptional defensive instincts, his exceptional range into the OF, and his strong arm.
(PS -- SInce you said that you based your opinion that Rollins was better than Jeter on your visual observation of the two, you actually agree with me and this long post was completely unnecessary
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