Is the Fourpeat bad for I-AA?

[AZGrizFan]

Meh. Computer rankings of I-AA teams compared to I-A teams have NEVER been accurate. And Massey...

Final Massey rankings:
4. South Dakota State
9. Indiana State
14. Western Illinois
15. Southern Illinois
20. Missouri State

Yet he claims computers don't self-implode on conferences.

SDSU might be the 4th best team in the country, losing to NDSU twice, ISUR, Missouri and YSU. They probably win the CAA or any other conference outside the MVFC except the Big Sky, EWU would have been tough to beat when healthy. With a healthy QB, SDSU may have won the YSU game.

The other schools listed would be in the upper half of any conference outside the MVFC. Massey did a good job with these teams.

You have not been following FCS very close this year if you don't see how good the Valley was. What was it 32-2 out of conference record.

Hell, Montana might have won any other conference outside the MVFC. WTF does that prove?

[JohnStOnge]

From 2013. So this back and forth has been going on a long time. You choose to not play the game.

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... ck#p824628" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If there were anything in that thread after the last two posts you made I would say, "OK. I saw the challenge." But there isn't.

In any case, you don't need me to do it. All you have to do is keep track of what the Sagarin system predicts. I don' t need to be involved.

[JohnStOnge]

I've asked you many times to participate in one of the pick threads/games and you can pick your rating system and play with the rest of the field. I would think your computer should be able to beat anyone over the course of a year. BTW, not hard to find...

No you can't do that because of random variation. For example: Say you ask 30 people to pick 20 games each by just flipping a coin to pick each winner. There is a 70 percent chance that at least one person will pick at least 70 percent of the games correctly just by pure luck.

So you can't have a bunch of people picking games and look at one power rating system and say you've shown that people are better at picking games because one ore more did better than that one power rating system.

Yes, we're talking about more than 20 games. But that's the principle. If you had a power rating system with an underlying ability to pick 70 percent of games correctly vs. 30 people each with an underlying probability of picking 60 percent of the games correctly you'd be virtually certain to have some people finish ahead of the power rating system for a single year just due to random chance.

That's why you have to pick your "expert" ahead of time and go "one on one."

[Gil Dobie]

Hell, Montana might have won any other conference outside the MVFC. WTF does that prove?

My point

[AZGrizFan]

My point

No, it completely refutes your point that SDSU was the 4th best team in the country.

[Gil Dobie]

My point

No, it completely refutes your point that SDSU was the 4th best team in the country.

That's not the point I was referring to. Thank you for your participation in this discussion.

[89Hen]

From 2013. So this back and forth has been going on a long time. You choose to not play the game.

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... ck#p824628" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If there were anything in that thread after the last two posts you made I would say, "OK. I saw the challenge." But there isn't.

In any case, you don't need me to do it. All you have to do is keep track of what the Sagarin system predicts. I don' t need to be involved.

Yeah, you'd rather just keep making the claims.

[89Hen]

I've asked you many times to participate in one of the pick threads/games and you can pick your rating system and play with the rest of the field. I would think your computer should be able to beat anyone over the course of a year. BTW, not hard to find...

No you can't do that because of random variation. For example: Say you ask 30 people to pick 20 games each by just flipping a coin to pick each winner. There is a 70 percent chance that at least one person will pick at least 70 percent of the games correctly just by pure luck.

So you can't have a bunch of people picking games and look at one power rating system and say you've shown that people are better at picking games because one ore more did better than that one power rating system.

Yes, we're talking about more than 20 games. But that's the principle. If you had a power rating system with an underlying ability to pick 70 percent of games correctly vs. 30 people each with an underlying probability of picking 60 percent of the games correctly you'd be virtually certain to have some people finish ahead of the power rating system for a single year just due to random chance.

That's why you have to pick your "expert" ahead of time and go "one on one."

I'm talking about a year long contest John. One out of 30 can get lucky every week, but over 12 weeks, that luck runs out. I want to see how your computer does against a bunch of people over the whole year. You seem to think the computer will finish first. Put up or shut up.

[89Hen]

No, it completely refutes your point that SDSU was the 4th best team in the country.

That's not the point I was referring to. Thank you for your participation in this discussion.

He makes more sense than you Gil.

[Cap'n Cat]

Enough!!!!!!!

You're all wrong and you're all right.

Cap'n Cat sez four-peat is neither good nor bad for I-AA.

Move on.

[JohnStOnge]

That's a pretty compelling argument.

[Grizo406]

A personal note to GATW; The above pictured underpants are not considered "boxers".

[AZGrizFan]

No, it completely refutes your point that SDSU was the 4th best team in the country.

That's not the point I was referring to. Thank you for your participation in this discussion.

Well it's the point I was referring to. So there.

[Gil Dobie]

That's not the point I was referring to. Thank you for your participation in this discussion.

He makes more sense than you Gil.

Good one to save for another time.

[Gil Dobie]

That's not the point I was referring to. Thank you for your participation in this discussion.

Well it's the point I was referring to. So there.

I would favor SDSU, with a healthy QB, vs any Big Sky team, except EWU, over any CAA team with even odds vs UNH, over any Southland, over any Southern Conference team, and slightly over CCU. Who's left that would push them below #4.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

No.

Other teams need to raise their game.

5-peat is possible for the '15 Bison squad. Best O-lineman is returning so the Bison will have all starters back. The O-line will dominate next year. Looking at the schedule, there is not one team that will be favored over the Bison IMO. 3 Big Sky teams for the OOC slate and Ill State is off the schedule again this year in the 2 year rotation.

The ride continues...

[89Hen]

I would favor SDSU...

It's fun to play that game, but that's all it is. That said, SDSU's #4 in Massey wasn't what was really egregious to begin with. It was a 5-7 WIU at 14, a 6-6 SIU at 15 and a 4-8 MSU at 20.

[Brock Landers]

No.
5-peat is possible for the '15 Bison squad.

See, that's kind of the point. Not only is it possible, I'd say it's probable. And that's the problem. Even when graduating their defense, no one else is expected to snatch the crown away? Doesn't speak highly of FCS.

[JohnStOnge]

Yeah, you'd rather just keep making the claims.

Again, you don't need me. All you need to do is just look at how, say, Sagarin does yourself. My participation is not required.

[JohnStOnge]

I'm talking about a year long contest John. One out of 30 can get lucky every week, but over 12 weeks, that luck runs out. I want to see how your computer does against a bunch of people over the whole year. You seem to think the computer will finish first. Put up or shut up.

No, it doesn't work like that. When you compare one model system to human capability you give "human capability" a huge advantage due to random chance when you include a bunch of people then pick the one who did best after the fact. It doesn't mater if you do it for one week or do it for an entire season. To make a fair comparison you need to pick one person ahead of time who you think is good at it and compare what that one person does to what the model does.

Then you need to analyze the results to see if the difference that you end up could be accounted for by chance.

To have a fair test pick one person ahead of time based on your past "contest" results who you think is good at picking games.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

No.
5-peat is possible for the '15 Bison squad.

See, that's kind of the point. Not only is it possible, I'd say it's probable. And that's the problem. Even when graduating their defense, no one else is expected to snatch the crown away? Doesn't speak highly of FCS.

Is it NDSU's fault that they have had very good recruiting classes that players move up the depth chart and the team does not miss a beat?

Like I said, other teams need to step it up.

The Bison only had 1 returning O-lineman this year. Probably for most teams that would be a liability but the Bison O-line turned into the best unit in the FCS this year. 2 were sophomores and one RFR. Now the best lineman in '13 is coming back from injury.

It says to me that NDSU has kicked everyone's ass at recruiting besides the play on the field.

The defense will have to replace 6 starters so I suspect that unit will have some growing pains right off the bat but the players coming up are very talented and I believe the defense can be very good next year also.

[Grizalltheway]

Yep. They've found their niche in getting academically-marginal Big 10 rejects to a sharthole with no distractions outside of football and occasionally making an appearance in class.

[Gil Dobie]

Yep. They've found their niche in getting academically-marginal Big 10 rejects to a sharthole with no distractions outside of football and occasionally making an appearance in class.

The only time they are rejects, is when they transfer out of a B1G school.

2015 Academic All Star Team Bison 2, Griz 0
17th Annual FCS ADA Academic All-Star Team Named.....Link

Additionally, from the Academic All-Star team, 10 finalists were selected for the 14th Annual FCS ADA $5,000 Postgraduate Scholarships. Two student-athletes will receive postgraduate scholarships during the Association's annual membership meeting held in conjunction with the 2015 National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics (NACDA) Convention, being held at the World Center Marriott Resort in Orlando, Fla., June 11-18.

The finalists are Corey Boemer, Southern Illinois University, C, 3.89 GPA; James Cowser, Southern Utah University, DL, 3.99 GPA; Kyle Emanuel, North Dakota State University, DE, 3.66 GPA; Jake Farley, University of Northern Iowa, LB, 3.69 GPA; Max Holcombe, Jacksonville State University, C, 3.72 GPA; Troy McClelland, University of San Diego, LB/S, 3.89 GPA; Caleb Schaffitzel, Missouri State University, S, 3.93 GPA; Jason Schneider, South Dakota State University, WR, 3.98 GPA; Esley Thorton, North Dakota State University, LB, 3.92 GPA; and Zach Zenner, South Dakota State University, RB, 3.86 GPA.

A special Review Committee of Football Championship Subdivision athletics directors was responsible for selecting the all-star team and scholarship finalists. Completing this task were Ken Beazer, Southern Utah (chair); Thorr Bjorn, Rhode Island; Brian Hutchinson, Morehead State; Jeff Tingey, Idaho State; and Mark Wilson, Tennessee Tech.

[Brock Landers]

Is it NDSU's fault that they have had very good recruiting classes that players move up the depth chart and the team does not miss a beat?

Obviously none of this should be directed towards NDSU themselves. It's not their fault that the competition just apparently isn't up to snuff.

So again, it's not NDSU's fault for creating the chasm. It's everyone else's fault for being too incompetent, cheap, stubborn, whatever to do something about it. I guarantee NDSU is the favorite again next August.

[kalm]

Is it NDSU's fault that they have had very good recruiting classes that players move up the depth chart and the team does not miss a beat?

Obviously none of this should be directed towards NDSU themselves. It's not their fault that the competition just apparently isn't up to snuff.

It's not NDSU's fault that some of their fans are so easily butthurt and insecure after 4 straight.