Playoff projection thread

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby UNI88 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:58 pm

89Hen wrote:
93henfan wrote:
Absolutely correct. 89's and my opinion have zilch to do with Delaware. FCS is just really bad compared to last decade.

See? It's settled. :ugeek:


Yep! We just don't know which one of you is Debbie Downer and which one is Negative Nancy.

Here are your UD Reunion name tags ...

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Now you just need to find a third person to complete your throuple. :shit: :o :rofl:

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:39 pm

UNI88 wrote:
89Hen wrote:See? It's settled. :ugeek:


Yep! We just don't know which one of you is Debbie Downer and which one is Negative Nancy.

Here are your UD Reunion name tags ...

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Now you just need to find a third person to complete your throuple. :shit: :o :rofl:



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Re: RE: Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby UNI88 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:43 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
UNI88 wrote:
Yep! We just don't know which one of you is Debbie Downer and which one is Negative Nancy.

Here are your UD Reunion name tags ...

Image

Now you just need to find a third person to complete your throuple. :shit: :o :rofl:



Breaks the cardinal rule NEVER have two swords in a throuple. NEVER. EVER.


Close your eyes. I'm not sure who the third member is (poll question?) but there could be 3 swords in their fantasy throuple.

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby JBB » Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:12 am

When getting down to the first round cannon fodder selections it’s possible the committee will rotate teams. There’s always at least one cannon fodder type school angry about not being selected for a ceremonial loss. Let them in next time they are involved in a cannon fodder tie. These words from a UND fan should not be ignored by the committee they feel cheated them in the past out of a first round loss.

The only reason we are "sweating' is because it was proven in 2017 that the system used to make decisions on who is in who is out is inconsistent and heavily weighted by the decision makers in the room. There was national discussion on how a 7-4 UND team with an FCS win and a 3 game winning streak at the end of the season was left out over a 6-5 team. We were not the only ones questioning how that happened. Now it's being thrown out that SDSU and UNI "Haven't had the chance to play anyone difficult because of their schedule", but in 2017 some of the "Never UND" discussion included that our schedule was weak - well it's not weak this year so we are "sweating" because if we finish 7-4 they won't be able to say we had a weak schedule but history shows they like to move the bar behind closed doors.

If we finish 7-4 and UND is not chosen the system is a joke, if we finish 6-5 we do not deserve to be in (but if 6-5 becomes the bar for the last in we should be considered over an east coast patsy - but that won't happen so we need to just get it done).
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby kalm » Sat Nov 09, 2019 6:09 am

89Hen wrote:
kalm wrote:
Furman has lost two FCS games in two years one of which was to a surging Citadel who beat GT. Sac has one FCS loss where the back up comes in and quickly throws two picks that turned the game. UCA has one FCS loss and an FBS win plus two wins over probable playoff teams. SDSU has played a weak schedule and is lacking quality wins although their two losses were ok. Separation is occurring but not quite a chasm.

To make a case for teams being good, I much prefer talking about wins, not losses. Show me who they've beaten. More often than not you end up with circular crap like Kennesaw/Jacksonville State where they're both ranked highly so one of them gets credit for a good win and the other gets their loss dismissed because it was to a highly ranked team.

Do you really think anyone 5+ has a good shot to beat one of the top 4? I can't recall a year where I would have said no before this one.


Yes. All of them. But way to move the goalposts from 4 to 5.

And Sac, Weber, SDSU, and UNI's FBS losses are every bit as impressive as a win against any CAA. OOC wins include WKU, UNI, Monmouth, APSU.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby dal4018 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:40 pm

89Hen wrote:Looking at the standings and games left, I'm predicting this will be the worst W-L record for the playoffs EVER. There are going to be a TON of 8-4 and 7-5 teams in the field.

Several conferences are a shit show. OVC could end up with a four way tie with a bunch of 8-4 teams if my math is correct. Who knows what happens there??

FAMU could end up screwing the MEAC out of a bid. They are ineligible for post-season so if they win the conference second place B-CC or NCAT would go to MEAC/SWAC game and would the committee really take a third place team?

My October guess for the 24 with a reservation to revisit in a couple weeks...

Sacramento State
Weber State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw State
Campbell
James Madison
Villanova
New Hampshire
Stony Brook
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Central Conn
Austin Peay
Jacksonville State
Southeast Missouri State
Lehigh
San Diego
Wofford
Furman
Central Arkansas
Incarnate Word

There are two upsets brewing in the MEAC the Bad News Bears of Morgan St just knocked off North Carolina A&T 22-16 and Delaware St might knock off Bethune Cookman 16-6!!!!

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby Gil Dobie » Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:08 pm

BDKJMU wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:
UNH FCS losses to Holy Cross and Delaware, Illinois St only fcs losses to NDSU and UNI.


-UNH has 3 wins over teams with winning records: VU (6-3), SBU (5-4), Duquesne (6-2)
The other 2: Elon (4-5) and URI (2-7)

ILSU has beaten 1 team with winning record- SIU (5-4).
The rest:
-Non scholly Morehead (4-4)
-EIU (0-9)
-NAU (4–5)
-WIU (1-8)
-Indiana St (3-6)


That changed today.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby JBB » Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:49 am

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote:To make a case for teams being good, I much prefer talking about wins, not losses. Show me who they've beaten. More often than not you end up with circular crap like Kennesaw/Jacksonville State where they're both ranked highly so one of them gets credit for a good win and the other gets their loss dismissed because it was to a highly ranked team.

Do you really think anyone 5+ has a good shot to beat one of the top 4? I can't recall a year where I would have said no before this one.


Yes. All of them. But way to move the goalposts from 4 to 5.

And Sac, Weber, SDSU, and UNI's FBS losses are every bit as impressive as a win against any CAA. OOC wins include WKU, UNI, Monmouth, APSU.


:thumbdown:

The moral victory and good loss are playoff qualities?

Why would you add prestige for losses?

The UNI and SDSU losses were letdowns exposing weaknesses in otherwise good teams. They should be treated as a loss or thrown out leaving 11 games to make their case. Only an FBS win should add prestige.

It’s accomplishment that should be receiving special recognition from others. Participation is its own personal reward.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby kalm » Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:44 am

JBB wrote:
kalm wrote:
Yes. All of them. But way to move the goalposts from 4 to 5.

And Sac, Weber, SDSU, and UNI's FBS losses are every bit as impressive as a win against any CAA. OOC wins include WKU, UNI, Monmouth, APSU.


:thumbdown:

The moral victory and good loss are playoff qualities?

Why would you add prestige for losses?

The UNI and SDSU losses were letdowns exposing weaknesses in otherwise good teams. They should be treated as a loss or thrown out leaving 11 games to make their case. Only an FBS win should add prestige.

It’s accomplishment that should be receiving special recognition from others. Participation is its own personal reward.


I didn’t add prestige I made a comparison. There’s a wide disparity in scheduling ability and SoS in FCS. EG: SDSU outplayed and should have beat a currently undefeated and now likely top 10 Minnesota. That impressed me more than any FCS power conference team’s dismantling of a lower tier Pioneer (just for example).

It may be time to re-examine the GAM’s metrics old chap.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby JBB » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:11 am

tie breakers shouldn’t be so abstract to include moral victories and “good” losses. If it comes to that the team that went last should sit out and let the other team in. If that isn’t relevant flip a coin. Same with a seed.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby kalm » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:47 am

JBB wrote:tie breakers shouldn’t be so abstract to include moral victories and “good” losses. If it comes to that the team that went last should sit out and let the other team in. If that isn’t relevant flip a coin. Same with a seed.


the example I gave above isn't all that abstract. If it's straight W-L then CCSU should be a top 4 seed.

It also applies to seeding. I'd much prefer a rational decision made by a regionally represented committee applying multiple metrics and data points to what you suggest. :coffee:
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby dal4018 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:08 am

SuperHornet wrote:Let's be careful about saying that seasons are automatically shot when the starting QB goes down.

The Colts went a LONG way with RB Tom Matte playing QB after Johnny Unitas and Gary Cuozzo both got hurt. The Rams got to the Super Bowl after Pat Haden broke his finger. The Raiders went to the Super Bowl with backup Jim Plunkett (whom just about everyone had termed "washed up" after flunking out of a New England no-cut contract and San Francisco) after Dan Pastorini broke his leg. And who could forget Pastor Nick's performance taking the Eagles to the Super Bowl and a win after Carson Wentz went down with ACL tear.....

Plunkett had no talent around him in New England during his playing days.

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby SuperHornet » Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:47 pm

dal4018 wrote:
SuperHornet wrote:Let's be careful about saying that seasons are automatically shot when the starting QB goes down.

The Colts went a LONG way with RB Tom Matte playing QB after Johnny Unitas and Gary Cuozzo both got hurt. The Rams got to the Super Bowl after Pat Haden broke his finger. The Raiders went to the Super Bowl with backup Jim Plunkett (whom just about everyone had termed "washed up" after flunking out of a New England no-cut contract and San Francisco) after Dan Pastorini broke his leg. And who could forget Pastor Nick's performance taking the Eagles to the Super Bowl and a win after Carson Wentz went down with ACL tear.....

Plunkett had no talent around him in New England during his playing days.


I'm not sure that's COMPLETELY true, dal. He DID have his Stanford teammate Randy Vataha, who was a pretty good target, though if memory serves, his career was cut short by an injury....
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby BDKJMU » Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:39 pm

As far as the CAA, JMU a playoff lock. Assuming a minimum of 7 wins and 5-3 CAA to be in contention for an At Large, 6 other teams still in contention, but at least 5 of them need to win out, and 3 of them, UNH, Albany, and Maine, have elimination games vs each other). Right now I think the CAA gets 3 in, maybe 4: JMU, VU, TU, and maybe the winner of the UNH/Maine game. Maine has 2 I-A losses, so they would have the best chance at 7-5..

Updated CAA Standings
1. JMU 9-1/6-0 (UR, @ URI)
2. UNH 5-4/4-2 (only 11 games) (Must win out: @ Albany, Maine)
— Albany 6-4/4-2 (Must win out: UNH, @ SBU)
— UR 5-5/4-2 (Must win out: @ JMU, W&M
5. VU 7-3/4-3 (Long Island, @ Delaware)
6. TU 6-4/3-3 (Must win out: @ W&M, Elon)
-- Maine 5-5/3-3 (Must win out: URI, @ UNH)
Eliminated from playoff contention:
8. SBU 5-5/2-4
— Elon 4-6/3-4 (only 11 games)
-- UD 4–6/2-4
— W&M 4-6/2-4
12. URI 2-8/0-6

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby BDKJMU » Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:56 pm

BDKJMU wrote:Image
Obviously going to be some shakeup.
11/9 #10 @ #2

11/16
#3 @ #8
#6 @ #4

If #5-#10 lose, with the exception of Montana, none of them will get a Top 8 seed, as no 4 loss team, or a 3 loss UCA, will get a seed, I don't care who they played.


#1 NDSU 57, WIU 21
#2 JMU 54, #10 UNH 16
#3 Weber St 30, N Dakota 27
4. ILSU 27, #4 SDSU 18
#5 Sac St 38, NAU 24
#6 UNI 17, Ind St 9
SELA 34, #7 UCA 0
#8 Montana 42, Idaho 17
#9 Furman 60, VMI 21

My new projection:
#1 NDSU
#2 JMU
#3 Weber
#4 Sac St
#5 UNI
#6 Montana
#7 Furman
#8 ILSU
#9 SDSU
#10 Montana St

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:22 pm

BDKJMU wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:Image
Obviously going to be some shakeup.
11/9 #10 @ #2

11/16
#3 @ #8
#6 @ #4

If #5-#10 lose, with the exception of Montana, none of them will get a Top 8 seed, as no 4 loss team, or a 3 loss UCA, will get a seed, I don't care who they played.


#1 NDSU 57, WIU 21
#2 JMU 54, #10 UNH 16
#3 Weber St 30, N Dakota 27
4. ILSU 27, #4 SDSU 18
#5 Sac St 38, NAU 24
#6 UNI 17, Ind St 9
SELA 34, #7 UCA 0
#8 Montana 42, Idaho 17
#9 Furman 60, VMI 21

My new projection:
#1 NDSU
#2 JMU
#3 Weber
#4 Sac St
#5 UNI
#6 Montana
#7 Furman
#8 ILSU
#9 SDSU
#10 Montana St

so you’re predicting Weber goes into Missoula and beats the Griz next weekend?
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby BDKJMU » Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:05 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:
#1 NDSU 57, WIU 21
#2 JMU 54, #10 UNH 16
#3 Weber St 30, N Dakota 27
4. ILSU 27, #4 SDSU 18
#5 Sac St 38, NAU 24
#6 UNI 17, Ind St 9
SELA 34, #7 UCA 0
#8 Montana 42, Idaho 17
#9 Furman 60, VMI 21

My new projection:
#1 NDSU
#2 JMU
#3 Weber
#4 Sac St
#5 UNI
#6 Montana
#7 Furman
#8 ILSU
#9 SDSU
#10 Montana St

so you’re predicting Weber goes into Missoula and beats the Griz next weekend?

No. I have no idea that game. I’m saying if the committee did a new Top for this week/Week 12, it would look like the above. Given the below games and the potential for another upset or 2 in addition to the below games, for next week, Week 13, it would look a little different. And for the playoff field in 2 weeks, #1-#8 seeds will look different.

Next week
-UNI @ SDSU
-Weber @ Montana
-Furman @ Wofford (6-3/5-1)

11/23:
Montana @ Montana St

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby 89Hen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:26 am

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote:Do you really think anyone 5+ has a good shot to beat one of the top 4? I can't recall a year where I would have said no before this one.


Yes. All of them. But way to move the goalposts from 4 to 5.

Cripes, here we go again. 5+ means 5, 6, 7..... not those only above 5.
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Re: RE: Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby UNI88 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:15 am

89Hen wrote:Do you really think anyone 5+ has a good shot to beat one of the top 4? I can't recall a year where I would have said no before this one.


2 days after you typed this it happens.



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Re: RE: Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby 89Hen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:44 am

UNI88 wrote:
89Hen wrote:Do you really think anyone 5+ has a good shot to beat one of the top 4? I can't recall a year where I would have said no before this one.


2 days after you typed this it happens.

Yup. SDSU laid an egg. I was wrong. But I was more upset with kalm trying to say I moved the goalposts.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby BDKJMU » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:55 am

BDKJMU wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:so you’re predicting Weber goes into Missoula and beats the Griz next weekend?

No. I have no idea that game. I’m saying if the committee did a new Top for this week/Week 12, it would look like the above. Given the below games and the potential for another upset or 2 in addition to the below games, for next week, Week 13, it would look a little different. And for the playoff field in 2 weeks, #1-#8 seeds will look different.

Next week
-UNI @ SDSU
-Weber @ Montana
-Furman @ Wofford (6-3/5-1)

11/23:
Montana @ Montana St


But if I had to take another stab how the field will end up, I''d go with Weber beating Montana, SDSU beating UNI, Furman beating Wofford, Montana beating Montana St. So my field guess for 11/24:
#1 NDSU (12-0/8-0)
#2 JMU (11-1/8-0)
#3 Weber (10-2/8-0)
#4 Sac (9-3/7-1)
#5 Furman (9-3/7-1)
#6 ILSU (9-3/6-2)
#7 SDSU (9-3/6-2)
#8 Montana (9-3/6-2)
UNI
Montana St
Villanova
Towson
UNH
Citadel
SELA
UCA
SHSU
SEMO
Austin Peay
Monmouth
KSU
CCSU
Holy Cross
San Diego

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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby dal4018 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:41 pm

SuperHornet wrote:
dal4018 wrote:Plunkett had no talent around him in New England during his playing days.


I'm not sure that's COMPLETELY true, dal. He DID have his Stanford teammate Randy Vataha, who was a pretty good target, though if memory serves, his career was cut short by an injury....

Okay he I forgot about him but he was basically by himself and Vataha plus Mike Haynes on defense.

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Re: RE: Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby UNI88 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:29 pm

89Hen wrote:
UNI88 wrote:
2 days after you typed this it happens.

Yup. SDSU laid an egg. I was wrong. But I was more upset with kalm trying to say I moved the goalposts.


You could move the goalposts to 4+ but that might be a valid change after SDSU lost.

I still think UNI would have a decent shot in a rematch against Weber. I don't know enough about JMU and NDSU is a bigger challenge but it's not impossible.

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Re: RE: Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby kalm » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:10 pm

89Hen wrote:
UNI88 wrote:
2 days after you typed this it happens.

Yup. SDSU laid an egg. I was wrong. But I was more upset with kalm trying to say I moved the goalposts.


There are teams in the top 30 that could.
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Re: Playoff projection thread

Postby BDKJMU » Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:22 am

Updated CAA Standings
1. JMU 10-1/7-0
2. Albany 7-4/5-2 (@ SBU, probably needs to win).
3.Villanova 8-3/4-3 (UD, might need to win).
—TU 7-4/4-3 (Elon, must win).
—Maine 6-5/4-3 (@ UNH, must win) (2 G5 losses)

Eliminated from playoff contention:
—UNH 5-5/4-3 (only 11 games)
— Richmond 5-6/4-3
8.UD 5-6/3-4
— Elon 4-6/3-4 (only 11 games)
10.SBU 5-6/2-5
— W&M 4-7/2-5
12. URI 2-9/0-7


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