BSC Projections...

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SuperHornet
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BSC Projections...

Postby SuperHornet » Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:31 pm

It looks like the BSC will get at least FOUR into the playoffs. BBQ will at least split their final two (there's only the Griz to really worry about). After that close call yesterday, it looks like smooth sailing for Sac, particularly if Thomson's back. The Griz have to worry about BBQ AND the Brawl, but they're probably in if they get a split, which is certainly doable (I figure they'll win the Brawl and lose to BBQ, but it could easily go the other way around). And the Kitties have Davis and the Griz.

The Manure Pile would HAVE to win out, but one, 7-5 won't be enough for them, and I don't think it will happen anyway. The one kicker in here is the potential that EWU will win out to go 7-5. Given that they have only Cow Poly and PSU left, I think this is VERY possible. Given their SOS (Washington, #22 North Dakota, #8 Sac, and #5 Griz as losses), a projected four-game winning streak with at least two blowouts in that span, 7-5 COULD very well be enough. Whereas, even assuming the Manure Pile CAN win out, I think they scheduled themselves out of the playoffs with a Pioneer and a Patriot.

So, I'm thinking that we COULD easily see BBQ, Sac, the Griz, the Kitties, AND EWU in the playoffs. Am I correct? Or are there some middle-of-the road MVC/OVC/CAA teams that may upset that apple cart? Or perhaps a second team from some of the traditional one-bid leagues?
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Re: BSC Projections...

Postby CrunchGriz » Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:42 pm

SuperHornet wrote:It looks like the BSC will get at least FOUR into the playoffs. BBQ will at least split their final two (there's only the Griz to really worry about). After that close call yesterday, it looks like smooth sailing for Sac, particularly if Thomson's back. The Griz have to worry about BBQ AND the Brawl, but they're probably in if they get a split, which is certainly doable (I figure they'll win the Brawl and lose to BBQ, but it could easily go the other way around). And the Kitties have Davis and the Griz.

The Manure Pile would HAVE to win out, but one, 7-5 won't be enough for them, and I don't think it will happen anyway. The one kicker in here is the potential that EWU will win out to go 7-5. Given that they have only Cow Poly and PSU left, I think this is VERY possible. Given their SOS (Washington, #22 North Dakota, #8 Sac, and #5 Griz as losses), a projected four-game winning streak with at least two blowouts in that span, 7-5 COULD very well be enough. Whereas, even assuming the Manure Pile CAN win out, I think they scheduled themselves out of the playoffs with a Pioneer and a Patriot.

So, I'm thinking that we COULD easily see BBQ, Sac, the Griz, the Kitties, AND EWU in the playoffs. Am I correct? Or are there some middle-of-the road MVC/OVC/CAA teams that may upset that apple cart? Or perhaps a second team from some of the traditional one-bid leagues?


EWU scheduled themselves out of the playoffs. They can’t reach seven Division 1 wins. One of their wins was against Lindenwood, a Division 2 team.

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Re: BSC Projections...

Postby SuperHornet » Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:45 pm

Yeah, I thought about that, too. That's incidentally the school that boasts Rugby War Goddess.

But if ANYONE has a schedule that could get in with six, I think the rest of EWU's SOS just might get the job done. But only if other schools with better records don't have a better overall SOS....
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Re: BSC Projections...

Postby kalm » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:09 pm

CrunchGriz wrote:
SuperHornet wrote:It looks like the BSC will get at least FOUR into the playoffs. BBQ will at least split their final two (there's only the Griz to really worry about). After that close call yesterday, it looks like smooth sailing for Sac, particularly if Thomson's back. The Griz have to worry about BBQ AND the Brawl, but they're probably in if they get a split, which is certainly doable (I figure they'll win the Brawl and lose to BBQ, but it could easily go the other way around). And the Kitties have Davis and the Griz.

The Manure Pile would HAVE to win out, but one, 7-5 won't be enough for them, and I don't think it will happen anyway. The one kicker in here is the potential that EWU will win out to go 7-5. Given that they have only Cow Poly and PSU left, I think this is VERY possible. Given their SOS (Washington, #22 North Dakota, #8 Sac, and #5 Griz as losses), a projected four-game winning streak with at least two blowouts in that span, 7-5 COULD very well be enough. Whereas, even assuming the Manure Pile CAN win out, I think they scheduled themselves out of the playoffs with a Pioneer and a Patriot.

So, I'm thinking that we COULD easily see BBQ, Sac, the Griz, the Kitties, AND EWU in the playoffs. Am I correct? Or are there some middle-of-the road MVC/OVC/CAA teams that may upset that apple cart? Or perhaps a second team from some of the traditional one-bid leagues?


EWU scheduled themselves out of the playoffs. They can’t reach seven Division 1 wins. One of their wins was against Lindenwood, a Division 2 team.


The handbook was changed a few years back. It now reads "less than 6 DI wins may put a team in jeopardy of not being selected as an at-large". And for good reason. I think there were 7 DII wins against FCS this season. Those are against teams that someone is claiming as a DI win. The committee now also considers a DII teams strength. In this case, EWU's win over Lindenwood isn't really different than UND's win against Drake. Lindenwood is 7-3 and beat Truman State who has an FCS win against one of Drakes Pioneer Conference mates (albeit a bad Valpo but you get the point).

Not arguing here that EWU should get in at 7-5, we would need a ton of chaos but we'd certainly deserve a looksie with the #10 SoS overall and a win over bubble team UND or a 7-5 from a power conference like SDSU who's best win would be comparable.

FWIW, I think Davis is a lock at 7-5 which would include wins over two probably playoff teams in Sac and MSU (although MSU could also finish 7-5) plus the #1 SoS at least according to Massey.
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Re: BSC Projections...

Postby CrunchGriz » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:41 pm

kalm wrote:
CrunchGriz wrote:
EWU scheduled themselves out of the playoffs. They can’t reach seven Division 1 wins. One of their wins was against Lindenwood, a Division 2 team.


The handbook was changed a few years back. It now reads "less than 6 DI wins may put a team in jeopardy of not being selected as an at-large". And for good reason. I think there were 7 DII wins against FCS this season. Those are against teams that someone is claiming as a DI win. The committee now also considers a DII teams strength. In this case, EWU's win over Lindenwood isn't really different than UND's win against Drake. Lindenwood is 7-3 and beat Truman State who has an FCS win against one of Drakes Pioneer Conference mates (albeit a bad Valpo but you get the point).

Not arguing here that EWU should get in at 7-5, we would need a ton of chaos but we'd certainly deserve a looksie with the #10 SoS overall and a win over bubble team UND or a 7-5 from a power conference like SDSU who's best win would be comparable.

FWIW, I think Davis is a lock at 7-5 which would include wins over two probably playoff teams in Sac and MSU (although MSU could also finish 7-5) plus the #1 SoS at least according to Massey.


Well, all of that may be true, but it's also based on an 11-game schedule. Six Division I wins in a 12-game season would be looked at pretty harshly, I would think. What, are we becoming a bowl division where everyone gets a participation ribbon and a playoff berth?

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Re: BSC Projections...

Postby kalm » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:04 pm

CrunchGriz wrote:
kalm wrote:
The handbook was changed a few years back. It now reads "less than 6 DI wins may put a team in jeopardy of not being selected as an at-large". And for good reason. I think there were 7 DII wins against FCS this season. Those are against teams that someone is claiming as a DI win. The committee now also considers a DII teams strength. In this case, EWU's win over Lindenwood isn't really different than UND's win against Drake. Lindenwood is 7-3 and beat Truman State who has an FCS win against one of Drakes Pioneer Conference mates (albeit a bad Valpo but you get the point).

Not arguing here that EWU should get in at 7-5, we would need a ton of chaos but we'd certainly deserve a looksie with the #10 SoS overall and a win over bubble team UND or a 7-5 from a power conference like SDSU who's best win would be comparable.

FWIW, I think Davis is a lock at 7-5 which would include wins over two probably playoff teams in Sac and MSU (although MSU could also finish 7-5) plus the #1 SoS at least according to Massey.


Well, all of that may be true, but it's also based on an 11-game schedule. Six Division I wins in a 12-game season would be looked at pretty harshly, I would think. What, are we becoming a bowl division where everyone gets a participation ribbon and a playoff berth?


Why? Teams like Nicholls, Furman, Sac, Weber, UCA that normally schedule one FBS schedule two to make some dough. Only a handful of teams that’s draw in the 15-25k range or have a number of nearby bus trip opponents can afford to book 3-4 FCS OOC games. It still boils down to resumes and DII’s are now considered.
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Re: BSC Projections...

Postby CrunchGriz » Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:07 am

kalm wrote:
CrunchGriz wrote:
Well, all of that may be true, but it's also based on an 11-game schedule. Six Division I wins in a 12-game season would be looked at pretty harshly, I would think. What, are we becoming a bowl division where everyone gets a participation ribbon and a playoff berth?


Why? Teams like Nicholls, Furman, Sac, Weber, UCA that normally schedule one FBS schedule two to make some dough. Only a handful of teams that’s draw in the 15-25k range or have a number of nearby bus trip opponents can afford to book 3-4 FCS OOC games. It still boils down to resumes and DII’s are now considered.


And more than a handful of these teams have scheduled themselves right out of the playoffs by scheduling too many FBS and Division II teams. Well, Division II games can be considered, but like I said, the guideline of seven wins is still intended for use in an 11 game season. In a 12 game season, I'll bet that having only 6 FCS wins will cost a team—barring a rash of weird upsets and other circumstances (or winning the conference with only four wins if you’re in the Patriot League ;) ).


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