Quarterfinal Predictions

[Mvemjsunpx]

Delaware (9-3) @ (#1) Northern Iowa (12-0) - Some might be thinking upset here. While the Blue Hens crushed Delaware State in a game that was supposed to be competitive, the Panthers needed a TD pass with 7 seconds left to beat heavy underdog New Hampshire by 3. Though they couldn't stop RB Corey Lewis (220 yards & 3 TD's), UNH QB Ricky Santos was able to complete 74% of his passes for 251 yards & 2 TD's. Unlike UNH, though, Delaware needs to run to be successful. Omar Cuff certainly ran well against DSU, but UNI's defense has eaten up the run all year. The Panthers outplay the Hens on both sides of the ball & move into the semis... UNI 34, UD 17

Massachusetts (10-2) @ (#4) Southern Illinois (11-1) - UMass is one of those teams that doesn't do anything great, but they do most everything well. Lately, however, they haven't done those things as consistently well as earlier in the year. They lost a sloppy game to Rhode Island November 3rd. & had trouble with Fordham, the weakest team in the playoff field, in the first round. Though the Minutemen offense racked up 649 yards of offense & outgained Fordham by about 250 yards, the Rams were able to keep close until the last few minutes. The Salukis, on the other hand, are playing better than any other FCS team right now. They outgained Eastern Illinois 402-179 en route to an easy 30-11 win. SIU can run, pass, & play defense very well so they're difficult to beat. I think the Minutemen will need a low scoring game to win this one. The Salukis will, however, score enough to earn a rematch with their conference rivals... SIU 24, UMASS 13

Richmond (10-2) @ Wofford (9-3) - I was surprised Wofford earned the home game here until I remembered what Richmond's field looked like the last time they hosted a playoff game (2005 QF's vs. Furman). The grass looked pretty brown if I remember correctly. Anyway, the Terriers surprised many by becoming the first southern team to knock off Montana in Missoula in the playoffs. The Grizzlies were optioned to death to the tune of 333 yards, the most they've given up on the ground since a 1998 loss to Southern Utah. Meanwhile, the Spiders earned an easy & expected 17 point win over OVC champ Eastern Kentucky. The ultimate key to this game is Richmond RB Tim Hightower. I don't think the Terriers will have an answer for him. Wofford was successful offensively against Montana, but, having attended that game, I can say that was more due to UM's lousy defensive gameplan than it was anything particularly creative the Terrier offense did. Because the Griz consistently sold out to stop the FB dive, Josh Collier & Kevious Johnson had outside running lanes wide open all day. I don't see Richmond making the same mistake... RICH 28, WOFF 14

Eastern Washington (9-3) @ Appalachian St. (10-2) - Easily the most interesting game of the day tomorrow, in my opinion. A lot of FCS fans figure, since both lower-half seeds lost, the way seems paved for a Mountaineer three-peat. As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend!" In case you forget, the Eagles absolutely destroyed 2-seed McNeese State last Saturday. Matt Nichols & his receivers couldn't be stopped & the Cowboy offense couldn't accomplish anything. Appalachian State got dominated by James Madison's running game in the first round, but still managed to win by 1 because of two JMU miscues in the 4th. quarter. First, the Dukes went for it on 4th. down in their own territory & didn't get it. App. State then scored to go ahead 28-27. Then, with less than a minute left, JMU fumbled at the Mountaineer 10-yard line, clinching the win for ASU. I think this game will be less offensive than both teams are used to. App. State has a good secondary that can contest EWU's receiving corps, while the Eagles play a surprisingly good 4-2-5 defense that should do a decent job containing Armanti Edwards & his spread option attack. Eastern already crushed another spread option team (Northern Arizona) earlier this year. The Dukes exploited ASU's defensive weaknesses up front &, ultimately, I don't think a team that gives up 202 ypg on the ground can get real close to winning a championship. Dale Morris has a big day... EWU 28, APPST 27

[AppGuy04]

While our defense has not exactly been stout against the run, It's not hard to win when you offense is averaging 267 yards itself on the ground, almost 42 ppg and almost 500 yards per game total on offense

As for defense, these are the respective rankings for the 2 teams
ASU
25.8 points/game
374.7 yards/game
172.7 passing yards/game
202.0 rushing yards/game
EWU
20.8 points/game
379.2 points/game
248.8 passing yards/game
130.4 rushing yards/game

As you can see, we aren't talking much difference b/t the two teams defensively. One is better against the run, the other against the past

As for offense, EWU is very pass happy, ASU is a run heavy team. The key difference that stands out to me is penalties. EWU is the 2nd most penalized team in the playoff field, second only to UMass, averaging 70 yards per game in penalty yardage.

[Mvemjsunpx]

While our defense has not exactly been stout against the run, It's not hard to win when you offense is averaging 267 yards itself on the ground, almost 42 ppg and almost 500 yards per game total on offense

As for defense, these are the respective rankings for the 2 teams
ASU
25.8 points/game
374.7 yards/game
172.7 passing yards/game
202.0 rushing yards/game
EWU
20.8 points/game
379.2 points/game
248.8 passing yards/game
130.4 rushing yards/game

As you can see, we aren't talking much difference b/t the two teams defensively. One is better against the run, the other against the past

As for offense, EWU is very pass happy, ASU is a run heavy team. The key difference that stands out to me is penalties. EWU is the 2nd most penalized team in the playoff field, second only to UMass, averaging 70 yards per game in penalty yardage.

Actually, Eastern Washington runs it 40 times per game & throws it about 34 times per game.

Also, remember that the Big Sky throws more flags than other conferences. Those penalty numbers generally go down for BSC teams in the playoffs.

[AppGuy04]

The Big Sky throws more flags? A penalty is a penalty

As I speak, ASU has almost 500 yards of offense, compared to EWU at 230

[Mvemjsunpx]

The Big Sky throws more flags? A penalty is a penalty

As I speak, ASU has almost 500 yards of offense, compared to EWU at 230

Not in the Big Sky it isn't.